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Post by jcljorgenson on Mar 19, 2023 8:49:08 GMT -8
I'm not sure how many of you continued to watch CBS after the Furman beat down, but Clark Kellogg shared an interesting stat. He said this was the third straight game SDSU has held their opponent to the lowest point total of the season. That's very impressive, considering it was at the tail end of the season (30+ games played) and all of those teams played well enough to get into the NCAA tournament. I then decided to look at the 4th team and it was San Jose State, who we held to an impressive 49 points (they only had one game against Nevada with less points). Before that, we gave up 61 points against CSU (one of their lowest scoring games) and before that we only gave up 50 points to Wyoming (one of their worst scoring games). In short, this team's defense is currently "firing on all cylinders."
I also watched the Maryland vs. Alabama game and thought Maryland played reasonably well on defense, only allowing 73 points scored. But their offense was horrendous, as others noted - they missed many easy buckets and layups. Maryland ended the game with just 51 points, shooting 19-54 in FG, 1-8 3FG and a hideous 12-21 in FT.
For this season, SDSU's defense has averaged 63 points per game (closer to 62 points if you exclude the two OT games). Alabama's offense is currently ranked #5 in the nation, so we clearly cannot assume we hold them to our 62/63 point average. But let's assume SDSU's defense performs slightly better than Maryland, holding Alabama to 70 points or less. With this assumption, I reviewed Alabama's schedule to see how they previously performed. In short, their current record is 31-5 but they are only 2-4 when held to 70 points or less:
Nov 15, W, 65-55 So. Alabama
Nov 25, L, 67-82 UConn
Jan 25, W, 66-63 Miss St.
Jan 28, L, 69-93 Oklahoma
Feb 15, L 59-68 Tennessee
Mar 4, L 61-67 TX A&M
Their 5th loss was against Gonzaga. Alabama was able to score 90 points, but gave up 100 points to the Bulldogs. In regards to the close win against Miss St., their defense is comparable to SDSU, but they are only ranked #313 in offense (SDSU is #174).
In my opinion, I think we have a pretty solid chance of defeating Alabama if our stellar defense continues and we play reasonably well on offense. FYI, the current sports book over/under is a total of 137 points.
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Post by Aztec Since 88 on Mar 19, 2023 8:55:14 GMT -8
IMO, we need to keep the game in the 60s to win. If we do that we have a legitimate chance to move on to the Elite 8.
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Post by azteclou on Mar 19, 2023 8:58:43 GMT -8
IMO, we need to keep the game in the 60s to win. If we do that we have a legitimate chance to move on to the Elite 8. Agree. We got 70+ 23 times this season but just once in our last 7 games. Early in the season we were going 80+. |
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Post by jcljorgenson on Mar 19, 2023 9:04:10 GMT -8
IMO, we need to keep the game in the 60s to win. If we do that we have a legitimate chance to move on to the Elite 8. Agree. We got 70+ 23 times this season but just once in our last 7 games. Early in the season we were going 80+. Lockdown defense slows down the game and reduces points scored on both ends. That one Fresno State win was mind-blowing - we only scored 45 points but still managed to win. |
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Post by gigglyforshrigley on Mar 19, 2023 9:14:09 GMT -8
We should be playing loose and with house money at this point, since now we're totally the under dog. Nothing to lose.
We definitely have a chance to beat them, but whatever the outcome I'll be proud of this squad and they got further than I expected
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Post by aztecnails on Mar 19, 2023 9:33:09 GMT -8
Check the Alabama schedule for Feb. 15, they played and lost at Tennessee 59-68 and not Texas. The 59 points was their lowest offensive performance of this season.
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Post by legkick on Mar 19, 2023 9:39:39 GMT -8
Some more analytics:
Make no mistake, the Aztecs are the underdogs, and the front line size of Alabama causes match-up problems .
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Post by jcljorgenson on Mar 19, 2023 9:44:42 GMT -8
Check the Alabama schedule for Feb. 15, they played and lost at Tennessee 59-68 and not Texas. The 59 points was their lowest offensive performance of this season. Thanks, fixed it. |
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Post by aztecnails on Mar 19, 2023 9:52:36 GMT -8
I'm not sure how many of you continued to watch CBS after the Furman beat down, but Clark Kellogg shared an interesting stat. He said this was the third straight game SDSU has held their opponent to the lowest point total of the season. That's very impressive, considering it was at the tail end of the season (30+ games played) and all of those teams played well enough to get into the NCAA tournament. I then decided to look at the 4th team and it was San Jose State, who we held to an impressive 49 points (they only had one game against Nevada with less points). Before that, we gave up 61 points against CSU (one of their lowest scoring games) and before that we only gave up 50 points to Wyoming (one of their worst scoring games). In short, this team's defense is currently "firing on all cylinders." I also watched the Maryland vs. Alabama game and thought Maryland played reasonably well on defense, only allowing 73 points scored. But their offense was horrendous, as others noted - they missed many easy buckets and layups. Maryland ended the game with just 51 points, shooting 19-54 in FG, 1-8 3FG and a hideous 12-21 in FT. For this season, SDSU's defense has averaged 63 points per game (closer to 62 points if you exclude the two OT games). Alabama's offense is currently ranked #5 in the nation, so we clearly cannot assume we hold them to our 62/63 point average. But let's assume SDSU's defense performs slightly better than Maryland, holding Alabama to 70 points or less. With this assumption, I reviewed Alabama's schedule to see how they previously performed. In short, their current record is 31-5 but they are only 2-4 when held to 70 points or less: Nov 15, W, 65-55 So. Alabama Nov 25, L, 67-82 UConn Jan 25, W, 66-63 Miss St. Jan 28, L, 69-93 Oklahoma Feb 15, L 59-68 Tennessee Mar 4, L 61-67 TX A&M Their 5th loss was against Gonzaga. Alabama was able to score 90 points, but gave up 100 points to the Bulldogs. In regards to the close win against Miss St., their defense is comparable to SDSU, but they are only ranked #313 in offense (SDSU is #174). In my opinion, I think we have a pretty solid chance of defeating Alabama if our stellar defense continues and we play reasonably well on offense. Thank you for changing your original post. |
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Post by ourtime on Mar 19, 2023 10:42:07 GMT -8
So Alabama is ranked 3rd in defense and Top 5 offense? Yikes.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Mar 19, 2023 10:50:26 GMT -8
So Alabama is ranked 3rd in defense and Top 5 offense? Yikes. Yeah, a win against them would be a huge upset. A MAJOR accomplishment. Herculean. |
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Post by jcljorgenson on Mar 19, 2023 11:04:13 GMT -8
ESPN has an 81.9% likelihood for an Alabama win. As far as total points per game allowed by Alabama, they are ranked #125 (possibly due to a higher pace/number of possessions). They are currently ranked #4 for offensive points per game. Alabama is also the #1 rebounding team, averaging 44.4 rebounds per game - almost four rebounds more than the second best team in that category.
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Post by sdsustoner on Mar 19, 2023 11:25:28 GMT -8
The good news is the teams who beat them were physical inside & took away the 3...things this defense does at an elite level
The bad news is their D forces teams into difficult shots and sometimes the Aztecs have enough trouble without a top D like Bama in the way
If the Aztecs turn this into a rock fight, there's a real chance at an upset
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Post by aztecnails on Mar 19, 2023 11:42:36 GMT -8
Purdue was a bigger favorite against Fairleigh Dickinson and still lost. So Why not SDSU beating Alabama. The 4 or 5 seed has been known to beat the no. 1 seed. It happened twice in the 2022 tournament with 4 seed Arkansas beating No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 5 Houston beating No. 1 Arizona.
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Post by aztech on Mar 19, 2023 12:06:27 GMT -8
The good news is the teams who beat them were physical inside & took away the 3...things this defense does at an elite level The bad news is their D forces teams into difficult shots and sometimes the Aztecs have enough trouble without a top D like Bama in the way If the Aztecs turn this into a rock fight, there's a real chance at an upset Maryland had a slow down offense and that played right into 'Bama's hands. Their front court guys are very tall so I question if they can keep up with an up tempo offense, sustained throughout the game. Our quickness with the weave and cutting ability should be to our advantage in the 2nd half. Theirs is blocking shots because of their height so it's important that we get open looks rather than rush shots to avoid getting blocked. Lastly, we don't have a drop off from our bench, which is pretty unusual. Those are my takes anyway. |
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Post by johneaztec on Mar 19, 2023 12:16:17 GMT -8
We should be playing loose and with house money at this point, since now we're totally the under dog. Nothing to lose. We definitely have a chance to beat them, but whatever the outcome I'll be proud of this squad and they got further than I expected This is what I said yesterday. Nothing to lose. Play loose. Have fun. Get the W. |
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Post by bnastyaztecs on Mar 19, 2023 13:27:30 GMT -8
Alabama Fan Forum: "San Diego State won’t be easy as they the only team of the 8 in our top half of the bracket I thought can beat us as all the other teams don’t have enough scoring to stay with us. If we rebound well in that one we should be fine though." "SD State and Baylor are the two teams that concern me. If we can handle SD State's defense and win the turnover battle, we win by at least 10. If we have over 15 turnovers, we will be hard pressed to win." www.tidefans.com/forums/threads/bama-with-sweet-win-over-terps-postgame-thread.333124/Bama fans seem to like the Aztecs chances..... |
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Post by bobcooper84 on Mar 19, 2023 13:43:07 GMT -8
Alabama Fan Forum: "San Diego State won’t be easy as they the only team of the 8 in our top half of the bracket I thought can beat us as all the other teams don’t have enough scoring to stay with us. If we rebound well in that one we should be fine though." "SD State and Baylor are the two teams that concern me. If we can handle SD State's defense and win the turnover battle, we win by at least 10. If we have over 15 turnovers, we will be hard pressed to win." www.tidefans.com/forums/threads/bama-with-sweet-win-over-terps-postgame-thread.333124/Bama fans seem to like the Aztecs chances..... Bama fans know that if they don't at least bring their " B " game, they're chances of losing are great....If Bama brings its " A " game and we bring our " A " game....Bama wins! |
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Post by aztech on Mar 19, 2023 13:49:07 GMT -8
Some more analytics: Make no mistake, the Aztecs are the underdogs, and the front line size of Alabama causes match-up problems . Their front court is frosh Miller(F), frosh Clowney(F) and Soph Bediako(C). Now compare our class standing to theirs. We can frustrate them into making youthful mistakes. |
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Post by AzTex on Mar 19, 2023 14:15:05 GMT -8
Off topic comment I had that didn't deserve creating a new thread. Alabama's rallying cry it "Roll Tide Roll." They are 200 miles from the nearest decent tide. We have real tides just down the street, so to speak, from our University.
Just doesn't make sense to me.
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