Some Stats/Analytics for #1 Alabama

[jcljorgenson]

Mar 19, 2023 8:49:08 GMT -8 jcljorgenson said:

I'm not sure how many of you continued to watch CBS after the Furman beat down, but Clark Kellogg shared an interesting stat. He said this was the third straight game SDSU has held their opponent to the lowest point total of the season. That's very impressive, considering it was at the tail end of the season (30+ games played) and all of those teams played well enough to get into the NCAA tournament. I then decided to look at the 4th team and it was San Jose State, who we held to an impressive 49 points (they only had one game against Nevada with less points). Before that, we gave up 61 points against CSU (one of their lowest scoring games) and before that we only gave up 50 points to Wyoming (one of their worst scoring games). In short, this team's defense is currently "firing on all cylinders."

I also watched the Maryland vs. Alabama game and thought Maryland played reasonably well on defense, only allowing 73 points scored. But their offense was horrendous, as others noted - they missed many easy buckets and layups. Maryland ended the game with just 51 points, shooting 19-54 in FG, 1-8 3FG and a hideous 12-21 in FT.

For this season, SDSU's defense has averaged 63 points per game (closer to 62 points if you exclude the two OT games). Alabama's offense is currently ranked #5 in the nation, so we clearly cannot assume we hold them to our 62/63 point average. But let's assume SDSU's defense performs slightly better than Maryland, holding Alabama to 70 points or less. With this assumption, I reviewed Alabama's schedule to see how they previously performed. In short, their current record is 31-5 but they are only 2-4 when held to 70 points or less:

Nov 15, W, 65-55 So. Alabama
Nov 25, L, 67-82 UConn
Jan 25, W, 66-63 Miss St.
Jan 28, L, 69-93 Oklahoma
Feb 15, L 59-68 Tennessee
Mar 4, L 61-67 TX A&M

Their 5th loss was against Gonzaga. Alabama was able to score 90 points, but gave up 100 points to the Bulldogs. In regards to the close win against Miss St., their defense is comparable to SDSU, but they are only ranked #313 in offense (SDSU is #174).

In my opinion, I think we have a pretty solid chance of defeating Alabama if our stellar defense continues and we play reasonably well on offense. FYI, the current sports book over/under is a total of 137 points.

Update, 2-5 when held to less than 70 points:

Nov 15, W, 65-55 So. Alabama
Nov 25, L, 67-82 UConn
Jan 25, W, 66-63 Miss St.
Jan 28, L, 69-93 Oklahoma
Feb 15, L 59-68 Tennessee
Mar 4, L 61-67 TX A&M
Mar 25, L 64-71 SDSU