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Post by longtimebooster on Apr 16, 2023 4:35:16 GMT -8
Conferences don't normally piecemeal their expansion announcements. When the announcement comes, I would expect 2-4 teams, plus perhaps a couple of non-football playing schools. And for clarity, I'm not stating that Fresno is in as a matter of fact. It's an opinion. I'm confident, but not stupid.Said every overconfident, stupid Internet dude. |
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 4:42:44 GMT -8
Come on Yoda, make up your mind. One post you say you're in. The next thing you're saying along with the Zonies and Col., you're in and SDSU could ride your coat tails in. Now you're saying Fresno doesn't have to be worried about the 30 mil exit fee because they wouldn't exit for another year. Did you ever consider a strong possibility that if the Pac lost schools to the B12 and the B12 still wanted a foot in Calif. that they would likely prefer SDSU's larger so- cal market to the valley market? You're just all over the place, Fresno's in, their maybe in, their in but maybe not this year. You say your sources are reliable one day, and the next you say you don't believe them. It's starting to appear a little OCD. I've said many times that I don't know what is going to happen. There are too many moving parts. And to be sure, my level of optimism has ebbed and flowed a bit, as conditions change. It would be irrational not to be influenced by changing conditions or to ignore/downplay the unexpected. But, with a one exception, I have been (for awhile now) and remain 90% certain that we will get an invitation to the Big 12. The exception: if the PAC totally explodes and there are suddenly 8 schools scrambling for 4 open seats. Then the odds drop to maybe 50/50. What changes isn't so much what I think Fresno's chances are but my guess as to who comes with us. That's a lot less clear to me. As for the market size, this is the kind of topic that I've answered many times before and don't want to answer again because then I get accused of being repetitive. Oh, and now OCD. |
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Post by gocoaztec on Apr 16, 2023 5:42:18 GMT -8
www.big12insider.com/articles/sources-say.htmlContact at DAZN "The Pac 12 wasn't interested in what we had to offer." A Big 12 Partner Contact "The Big 12 has remained in regular contact with several schools in the Pac 12. Discussions, to this point, have been casual, more of a “let’s keep our options open” vibe than let’s make this happen. Are Pac 12 schools interested? Yes, but nobody is going to make that type of decision until the Pac 12 has a television contract in front of the executive council. Are a few Pac 12 programs nervous? Yes. Is anyone nervous enough to pull the trigger? No. Everything is preliminary. It hasn’t reached the point where revenue projections and budgets have been exchanged. The Big 12 hasn’t went to ESPN & Fox asking for valuation estimates – that tells you all you need to know. A network valuation would be the Big 12’s first step If a Pac 12 school were serious about jumping ship. " Contact with WVU "Expansion for the sake of expansion is bad business. Assume a pro rata increase in conference revenue; that’s not enough to offset costs. We would need to realize a profit - $2 to $4m per member. But you never say never and you never turn your back on opportunity." From the website: “The Big 12 insider is part parody and part social media experiement. The goal of the Big 12 Insider is to poke fun at the phenomenon of self-proclaimed "insiders" and track their accuracey.” He also admits that his contacts are stale. Still, another interesting datapoint - read his take on “PAC 12 Problems”. He believes that Kalashnikov must resign before the P12 can get a deal comparable to the B12. |
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Post by SD Johnny on Apr 16, 2023 6:24:21 GMT -8
Come on Yoda, make up your mind. One post you say you're in. The next thing you're saying along with the Zonies and Col., you're in and SDSU could ride your coat tails in. Now you're saying Fresno doesn't have to be worried about the 30 mil exit fee because they wouldn't exit for another year. Did you ever consider a strong possibility that if the Pac lost schools to the B12 and the B12 still wanted a foot in Calif. that they would likely prefer SDSU's larger so- cal market to the valley market? You're just all over the place, Fresno's in, their maybe in, their in but maybe not this year. You say your sources are reliable one day, and the next you say you don't believe them. It's starting to appear a little OCD. But, with a one exception, I have been (for awhile now) and remain 90% certain that we will get an invitation to the Big 12. As for the market size, this is the kind of topic that I've answered many times before and don't want to answer again because then I get accused of being repetitive. I think the odds of Fresno getting an invite under current conditions are 10 to 1. Perception is reality and the Big 12 fans roll their eyes when Fresno is suggested as an expansion target. And I have to laugh at your take on the size of Fresnos TV market. |
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 7:01:10 GMT -8
Perception is reality and the Big 12 fans roll their eyes when Fresno is suggested as an expansion target. I agree with that... Most Big 12 fans think that I'm nuts as well. It turns our that most of them know very little about college football west of Texas -- just the national brands. You are picked as the more likely expansion candidate -- mostly because of your recent MBB run, I think. That surprised me -- but not as much as the fact that, other than the name brands, I don't know all that much about college football east of Texas. We can all name the schools in the PAC 10 and the MWC from memory. How many of us can name all the schools in the Big 12 or the AAC from memory? Some, but not all. To me, that is the greatest loss from this trend toward superconferences -- the loss of regional identity. I would kill for a PAC 14 that included USC, UCLA and our two schools. Maybe add Boise and Hawai'i for a truly Pacific PAC 16. A castrated Big 12 and a castrated PAC 12 are both a step up from the MWC and so we hope. But both are a booby prize compared to what might have been, should have been and eventually probably would have been but for greed. |
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Apr 16, 2023 7:02:16 GMT -8
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Post by longtimebooster on Apr 16, 2023 7:05:14 GMT -8
Perception is reality and the Big 12 fans roll their eyes when Fresno is suggested as an expansion target. I agree with that... Most Big 12 fans think that I'm nuts as well. Give yourself some credit, it's not only Big 12 fans. |
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Post by standiego on Apr 16, 2023 7:23:14 GMT -8
There is one basic issue for all schools and conferences involved for the PAC and Big 12 - WHAT IS THE PAC TV DEAL going to be worth
This is strictly a Big Business Money Deal that is currently at a Stand Still and both sides are trying to gain leverage
Some feel reinforced by their hopeful points of their view and will chase any or all points of view as long as it suits their view on the issue
Realize some feel getting to 4 or 5 hundred posts could be a minor goal achieved
There are others that enjoy egging Aztec fans with the negatives or deflecting the issue or enjoy having the arrows flung their way -
But the issue remains the same for 400 pages - What will the PAC TV DEAL be that is the only issue - and it may take X amount of time or pages until it gets resolved
minor question will it reach the likes of War and Peace
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 8:00:17 GMT -8
There is one basic issue for all schools and conferences involved for the PAC and Big 12 - WHAT IS THE PAC TV DEAL going to be worth This is strictly a Big Business Money Deal that is currently at a Stand Still and both sides are trying to gain leverage Some feel reinforced by their hopeful points of their view and will chase any or all points of view as long as it suits their view on the issue Realize some feel getting to 4 or 5 hundred posts could be a minor goal achieved There are others that enjoy egging Aztec fans with the negatives or deflecting the issue or enjoy having the arrows flung their way - But the issue remains the same for 400 pages - What will the PAC TV DEAL be that is the only issue - and it may take X amount of time or pages until it gets resolved minor question will it reach the likes of War and Peace I agree with you but with one exception. I think that there are two basic issues, not one. The first is the PAC TV deal, as you point out -- a money calculation. How do ESPN / Fox value the PAC 10 as a whole? The second is how do ESPN / Fox value the individual schools in and out of the PAC 10 who may be expansion candidates? That's also a money calculation, although money is not the only consideration in the final decision as to who is selected. The networks don't look at the same numbers that we see bandied about on message boards and news articles about how Fresno State's market size/penetration is greater or lesser than SDSU's. They've got the real numbers, as measured in eyeballs and ad revenue -- and they've got that figured out down to a gnat's eyebrow. Both our fates depend upon both calculations. |
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Post by SD Johnny on Apr 16, 2023 8:17:55 GMT -8
Perception is reality and the Big 12 fans roll their eyes when Fresno is suggested as an expansion target. You are picked as the more likely expansion candidate -- mostly because of your recent MBB run, I think. Lol. Keep telling yourself that. We’ve been number 1 since July. |
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 8:32:48 GMT -8
You are picked as the more likely expansion candidate -- mostly because of your recent MBB run, I think. Lol. Keep telling yourself that. We’ve been number 1 since July. I mean by Big 12 message board fans. They were all in on the four corner schools and no to any G-5s, until your basketball run and (to correct myself to add a second factor) until the PAC started showing you some love. |
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Post by adfrank on Apr 16, 2023 9:17:00 GMT -8
Perception is reality and the Big 12 fans roll their eyes when Fresno is suggested as an expansion target. I agree with that... Most Big 12 fans think that I'm nuts as well. It turns our that most of them know very little about college football west of Texas -- just the national brands. You are picked as the more likely expansion candidate -- mostly because of your recent MBB run, I think. That surprised me -- but not as much as the fact that, other than the name brands, I don't know all that much about college football east of Texas. We can all name the schools in the PAC 10 and the MWC from memory. How many of us can name all the schools in the Big 12 or the AAC from memory? Some, but not all. To me, that is the greatest loss from this trend toward superconferences -- the loss of regional identity. I would kill for a PAC 14 that included USC, UCLA and our two schools. Maybe add Boise and Hawai'i for a truly Pacific PAC 16. A castrated Big 12 and a castrated PAC 12 are both a step up from the MWC and so we hope. But both are a booby prize compared to what might have been, should have been and eventually probably would have been but for greed. We're more likely DUE TO OUR RECENT BASKETBALL RUN? Lose more respect for you with every piece of bull$#!+ you drop on here. Didn't need a basketball run to be ahead of Fresno. You have officially lost it sir. Lost it |
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Post by Den60 on Apr 16, 2023 9:26:43 GMT -8
Come on Yoda, make up your mind. One post you say you're in. The next thing you're saying along with the Zonies and Col., you're in and SDSU could ride your coat tails in. Now you're saying Fresno doesn't have to be worried about the 30 mil exit fee because they wouldn't exit for another year. Did you ever consider a strong possibility that if the Pac lost schools to the B12 and the B12 still wanted a foot in Calif. that they would likely prefer SDSU's larger so- cal market to the valley market? You're just all over the place, Fresno's in, their maybe in, their in but maybe not this year. You say your sources are reliable one day, and the next you say you don't believe them. It's starting to appear a little OCD. I've said many times that I don't know what is going to happen. There are too many moving parts. And to be sure, my level of optimism has ebbed and flowed a bit, as conditions change. It would be irrational not to be influenced by changing conditions or to ignore/downplay the unexpected. But, with a one exception, I have been (for awhile now) and remain 90% certain that we will get an invitation to the Big 12. The exception: if the PAC totally explodes and there are suddenly 8 schools scrambling for 4 open seats. Then the odds drop to maybe 50/50. What changes isn't so much what I think Fresno's chances are but my guess as to who comes with us. That's a lot less clear to me. As for the market size, this is the kind of topic that I've answered many times before and don't want to answer again because then I get accused of being repetitive. Oh, and now OCD. Why is it that the only place you hear about Fresno to the B12 is from you? Pretty quiet on that elsewhere. |
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 9:41:59 GMT -8
Why is it that the only place you hear about Fresno to the B12 is from you? Pretty quiet on that elsewhere. I'm one of the great thinkers of our time. |
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Post by Boise Aztec on Apr 16, 2023 9:46:27 GMT -8
There is one basic issue for all schools and conferences involved for the PAC and Big 12 - WHAT IS THE PAC TV DEAL going to be worth This is strictly a Big Business Money Deal that is currently at a Stand Still and both sides are trying to gain leverage Some feel reinforced by their hopeful points of their view and will chase any or all points of view as long as it suits their view on the issue Realize some feel getting to 4 or 5 hundred posts could be a minor goal achieved There are others that enjoy egging Aztec fans with the negatives or deflecting the issue or enjoy having the arrows flung their way - But the issue remains the same for 400 pages - What will the PAC TV DEAL be that is the only issue - and it may take X amount of time or pages until it gets resolved minor question will it reach the likes of War and Peace I agree with you but with one exception. I think that there are two basic issues, not one. The first is the PAC TV deal, as you point out -- a money calculation. How do ESPN / Fox value the PAC 10 as a whole? The second is how do ESPN / Fox value the individual schools in and out of the PAC 10 who may be expansion candidates? That's also a money calculation, although money is not the only consideration in the final decision as to who is selected. The networks don't look at the same numbers that we see bandied about on message boards and news articles about how Fresno State's market size/penetration is greater or lesser than SDSU's. They've got the real numbers, as measured in eyeballs and ad revenue -- and they've got that figured out down to a gnat's eyebrow. Both our fates depend upon both calculations. ESPN and Fox told the B12 that SDSU is worth a “full valuation” the same as Colorado, ASU etc. |
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 9:49:08 GMT -8
I agree with you but with one exception. I think that there are two basic issues, not one. The first is the PAC TV deal, as you point out -- a money calculation. How do ESPN / Fox value the PAC 10 as a whole? The second is how do ESPN / Fox value the individual schools in and out of the PAC 10 who may be expansion candidates? That's also a money calculation, although money is not the only consideration in the final decision as to who is selected. The networks don't look at the same numbers that we see bandied about on message boards and news articles about how Fresno State's market size/penetration is greater or lesser than SDSU's. They've got the real numbers, as measured in eyeballs and ad revenue -- and they've got that figured out down to a gnat's eyebrow. Both our fates depend upon both calculations. ESPN and Fox told the B12 that SDSU is worth a “full valuation” the same as Colorado, ASU etc. Everybody is trying to control a narrative. I don't believe your sources any more than I believe mine. |
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Post by Den60 on Apr 16, 2023 9:55:50 GMT -8
Lol. Keep telling yourself that. We’ve been number 1 since July. I mean by Big 12 message board fans. They were all in on the four corner schools and no to any G-5s, until your basketball run and (to correct myself to add a second factor) until the PAC started showing you some love. Nope, we ascended to the top four on their '4 corners" list because Utah said they weren't interested which leads the average B12 fanatic to become incredibly butthurt. To me honest, however, only ASU and Colorado meets or exceeds our attractiveness in terms of B12 expansion. Zona is in a tiny market and Utah shares one with BYU, though Utah's recent football success makes them attractive. But, it doesn't matter since no PAC schools are going to the B12 in this round of realignment. But, lets take a look at what may happen come 2029/2030. Perhaps then the B1G does take Washington and Oregon then, something I don't consider likely to happen. It is quite plausible that the PAC would then look at backfilling with some B12 schools. Kansas, for one, wants into an association with better academic schools. Iowa St is a good academic match for the PAC and would be a travel partner for Kansas. Surprisingly, Cincinnati does over $600M worth of research and would be a good pickup while setting the flag in the middle of B1G country though I think the ACC, if they only lose 4 schools, would be a better place for them. Geography doesn't favor them going to the PAC. Houston, of course, would be an attractive add based on athletics and media market and would be a good travel partner with SMU. Heck, even if Washington and Oregon stay in the PAC I could see the PAC adding Kansas and Houston and if they want to get to 16 perhaps adding Iowa St and Tulane or even, possibly, UNLV if they get their academics in order and do better in football. |
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Post by Den60 on Apr 16, 2023 9:57:02 GMT -8
ESPN and Fox told the B12 that SDSU is worth a “full valuation” the same as Colorado, ASU etc. Everybody is trying to control a narrative. I don't believe your sources any more than I believe mine. But, Boise does have a track record of being right on here. You? Notsomuch. |
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 10:18:27 GMT -8
Everybody is trying to control a narrative. I don't believe your sources any more than I believe mine. But, Boise does have a track record of being right on here. You? Notsomuch. I don't know what I've got wrong yet -- everything is pretty much tbd. But I admit that you folks don't agree with pretty much anything that I've opined. Probably not the same thing tho. |
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Post by Yoda on Apr 16, 2023 10:22:58 GMT -8
I mean by Big 12 message board fans. They were all in on the four corner schools and no to any G-5s, until your basketball run and (to correct myself to add a second factor) until the PAC started showing you some love. Nope, we ascended to the top four on their '4 corners" list because Utah said they weren't interested which leads the average B12 fanatic to become incredibly butthurt. To me honest, however, only ASU and Colorado meets or exceeds our attractiveness in terms of B12 expansion. Actually, the population of our TV market is greater than the population of the entire state of Colorado -- and we don't split our market with a local version of Colorado State. Again I can't prove it but my understanding is that our TV revenues far surpass those of Colorado. Gotta go work. Sorry, I know you're holding on to my every word. |
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