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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 12:43:32 GMT -8
He's hitting .409 in July, which is the entire premise of this latest iteration of this thread? I don't know what else you're referring to. 30 days? It's barely been two weeks with the All-Star break. His worst ever month was just last month....so I'm confused. Over his last 20 games, he's hitting .354. Great. The BABIP is .425 over that time frame. I'm not sure what is hard to understand here - My hopes and happiness aren't relevant. It's about stats, nothing more. The stats tell me this isn't a trend, it's statistical noise until it's extrapolated out further. I don't think you get it. It's not about him hitting .409 in July, it's about he's made improvements & thus far they're working. Nobody expects him to hit .300 moving forward, only that I don't expect him to hit .172 either. Over the past 30 days he's been among the top 5-6 hitting 1B's in the game, so why can't people enjoy that without you criticizing them for doing so? 21 games, 67 ABs isn't a blip. Yes, I'd love to see a few singles turn into doubles & a few doubles turned into HR's and to see him improve his walk rate, but a .949 OPS over those 30 days isn't something to sneeze at. I'm not expecting him to be our clean-up hitter or even a top 5 guy in our line-up. If he can simply be a productive 6 (vs. righties)/7 (vs. occasional lefties) hitter in our line-up that's good enough for me. I'm also not saying I don't think he'll get more days off, or that it wouldn't be great to upgrade the position. But if Hosmer's 30-day streak continues into 40 the pressure to do so is much less IMO. If he slides down to sub .200 over that span then we'll see. I'm just hoping that doesn't happen, and he settles in somewhere in the range of a .825 OPS. Last season he was .851, but in a limited timeframe. I do not think he's a .727 guy either. Only time will tell, not pessimism. Pretty simple. And that's what I've been saying all along. He will not give any credit to him and he'll keep the "We're never going to make it" mentality. I wouldn't want to be with someone in a fox hole, who has that attitude. "Well, the stats say we're not going to make it, even if we make adjustments, and have hope." There's a fine line between being a realist or, a pessimist. I think he's the latter in this case, for reasons only he knows above, and beyond the stats.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 12:46:10 GMT -8
I don't think you get it. It's not about him hitting .409 in July, it's about he's made improvements & thus far they're working. Nobody expects him to hit .300 moving forward, only that I don't expect him to hit .172 either. Over the past 30 days he's been among the top 5-6 hitting 1B's in the game, so why can't people enjoy that without you criticizing them for doing so? 21 games, 67 ABs isn't a blip. Yes, I'd love to see a few singles turn into doubles & a few doubles turned into HR's and to see him improve his walk rate, but a .949 OPS over those 30 days isn't something to sneeze at. I'm not expecting him to be our clean-up hitter or even a top 5 guy in our line-up. If he can simply be a productive 6 (vs. righties)/7 (vs. occasional lefties) hitter in our line-up that's good enough for me. I'm also not saying I don't think he'll get more days off, or that it wouldn't be great to upgrade the position. But if Hosmer's 30-day streak continues into 40 the pressure to do so is much less IMO. If he slides down to sub .200 over that span then we'll see. I'm just hoping that doesn't happen, and he settles in somewhere in the range of a .825 OPS. Last season he was .851, but in a limited timeframe. I do not think he's a .727 guy either. Only time will tell, not pessimism. I'm a realist. That's all. The larger picture is he needs to be an elite hitter, or in that ballpark, to be a net positive asset. .270/.320/.400 isn't good enough, when you factor in the rest of the profile. That's all I've got. You want him to be an elite hitter, so he'll never meet your expectations. That's obvious.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 12:49:40 GMT -8
I'm a realist. That's all. The larger picture is he needs to be an elite hitter, or in that ballpark, to be a net positive asset. .270/.320/.400 isn't good enough, when you factor in the rest of the profile. That's all I've got. Could not disagree more. If this were 2018 not 2021, and we didn't have several very good hitters already in our line-up the need for him to be "elite" is much greater. We need him to be an average 1B, or "solid" more so than "elite", and as stated I don't see him ending up with a .727 OPS when the season ends. I also don't think he's .949 like the past 30 days, but somewhere in between works for me (closer to last year's .851). He's definitely not a great fielder any more, but if he can be a solid #6/#7 hitter, deliver in the clutch & provide the clubhouse leadership he has been providing he's definitely a net positive asset. Exactly. Not asking for the world, only that he can stay as consistent as possible, ride this streak as long as possible and help contribute to the team reaching their goals. We all know he'll never live up to his contract. He wasn't worth it. Let's hope he can be a very good 6,l or 7 hitter, as you said.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 12:57:41 GMT -8
I'm a realist. That's all. The larger picture is he needs to be an elite hitter, or in that ballpark, to be a net positive asset. .270/.320/.400 isn't good enough, when you factor in the rest of the profile. That's all I've got. You want him to be an elite hitter, so he'll never meet your expectations. That's obvious. Learn how to read, please. STATISTICALLY, HE NEEDS TO BE AN ELITE HITTER, OR CLOSE TO IT...nowhere does it say in there what I want. What I want is irrelevant (like I've said at least a half dozen times already) - This is about Hosmer, not my feelings. How on Earth is this even debatable? Look at the numbers. Simple.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 12:59:05 GMT -8
I don't think you get it. It's not about him hitting .409 in July, it's about he's made improvements & thus far they're working. Nobody expects him to hit .300 moving forward, only that I don't expect him to hit .172 either. Over the past 30 days he's been among the top 5-6 hitting 1B's in the game, so why can't people enjoy that without you criticizing them for doing so? 21 games, 67 ABs isn't a blip. Yes, I'd love to see a few singles turn into doubles & a few doubles turned into HR's and to see him improve his walk rate, but a .949 OPS over those 30 days isn't something to sneeze at. I'm not expecting him to be our clean-up hitter or even a top 5 guy in our line-up. If he can simply be a productive 6 (vs. righties)/7 (vs. occasional lefties) hitter in our line-up that's good enough for me. I'm also not saying I don't think he'll get more days off, or that it wouldn't be great to upgrade the position. But if Hosmer's 30-day streak continues into 40 the pressure to do so is much less IMO. If he slides down to sub .200 over that span then we'll see. I'm just hoping that doesn't happen, and he settles in somewhere in the range of a .825 OPS. Last season he was .851, but in a limited timeframe. I do not think he's a .727 guy either. Only time will tell, not pessimism. Pretty simple. And that's what I've been saying all along. He will not give any credit to him and he'll keep the "We're never going to make it" mentality. I wouldn't want to be with someone in a fox hole, who has that attitude. "Well, the stats say we're not going to make it, even if we make adjustments, and have hope." There's a fine line between being a realist or, a pessimist. I think he's the latter in this case, for reasons only he knows above, and beyond the stats. I'm right here, John. You can address me directly. We're not in a foxhole, by the way. (Who even would make a silly comparison?) Stop drawing personal conclusions on an individual because you lack critical analysis. Thanks.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 20, 2021 13:01:46 GMT -8
You want him to be an elite hitter, so he'll never meet your expectations. That's obvious. Learn how to read, please. STATISTICALLY, HE NEEDS TO BE AN ELITE HITTER, OR CLOSE TO IT...nowhere does it say in there what I want. What I want is irrelevant (like I've said at least a half dozen times already) - This is about Hosmer, not me. Why does he need to be an "elite" hitter statistically to have value? Where does that come from? Again, I don't get that mindset. Where it is written that Eric Hosmer, beyond other players, must be an "elite hitter"? If he's a decent to good hitter he provides value IMO, given the rest of our line-up. The 2020 Eric Hosmer would be more than enough. Usually I agree with you, but I don't get your mindset at all when it comes to Hosmer.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 13:07:41 GMT -8
Learn how to read, please. STATISTICALLY, HE NEEDS TO BE AN ELITE HITTER, OR CLOSE TO IT...nowhere does it say in there what I want. What I want is irrelevant (like I've said at least a half dozen times already) - This is about Hosmer, not me. Why does he need to be an "elite" hitter statistically to have value? Where does that come from? Again, I don't get that mindset. Where it is written that Eric Hosmer, beyond other players, must be an "elite hitter"? If he's a decent to good hitter he provides value IMO, given the rest of our line-up. The 2020 Eric Hosmer would be more than enough. Usually I agree with you, but I don't get your mindset at all when it comes to Hosmer. Because his defense is so bad, given the positional adjustment, that he doesn't provide value. He doesn't hit for enough power, doesn't walk and posts middling peripherals. Value is in relation to contract, and his value as compared to a replacement level player is basement territory. He had to go on a heater to get above zero, this season. Being a league average hitter and a far below average defender is not value. And this is not an anti-Hosmer manifesto... Fernando's defense keeps him from being the best player in baseball right now. If he was even league average right now, he'd be a 6 WAR player today. We'll see what the future holds, but I find it interesting they plan on using Nola at first base when he comes back.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 13:39:33 GMT -8
Pretty simple. And that's what I've been saying all along. He will not give any credit to him and he'll keep the "We're never going to make it" mentality. I wouldn't want to be with someone in a fox hole, who has that attitude. "Well, the stats say we're not going to make it, even if we make adjustments, and have hope." There's a fine line between being a realist or, a pessimist. I think he's the latter in this case, for reasons only he knows above, and beyond the stats. I'm right here, John. You can address me directly. We're not in a foxhole, by the way. (Who even would make a silly comparison?) Stop drawing personal conclusions on an individual because you lack critical analysis. Thanks. Lol. Your critical analysis blinds you.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 13:41:11 GMT -8
You want him to be an elite hitter, so he'll never meet your expectations. That's obvious. Learn how to read, please. STATISTICALLY, HE NEEDS TO BE AN ELITE HITTER, OR CLOSE TO IT...nowhere does it say in there what I want. What I want is irrelevant (like I've said at least a half dozen times already) - This is about Hosmer, not my feelings. How on Earth is this even debatable? Look at the numbers. Simple. He doesn't NEED to be an ELITE hitter on this team. You don't get that.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 20, 2021 15:27:36 GMT -8
Why does he need to be an "elite" hitter statistically to have value? Where does that come from? Again, I don't get that mindset. Where it is written that Eric Hosmer, beyond other players, must be an "elite hitter"? If he's a decent to good hitter he provides value IMO, given the rest of our line-up. The 2020 Eric Hosmer would be more than enough. Usually I agree with you, but I don't get your mindset at all when it comes to Hosmer. Because his defense is so bad, given the positional adjustment, that he doesn't provide value. He doesn't hit for enough power, doesn't walk and posts middling peripherals. Value is in relation to contract, and his value as compared to a replacement level player is basement territory. He had to go on a heater to get above zero, this season. Being a league average hitter and a far below average defender is not value. And this is not an anti-Hosmer manifesto... Fernando's defense keeps him from being the best player in baseball right now. If he was even league average right now, he'd be a 6 WAR player today. We'll see what the future holds, but I find it interesting they plan on using Nola at first base when he comes back. You have to forget about his contract; that's a sunk cost. He'll never justify the contract, but at this point we don't need him to in order to be successful. He's not a great defender, but he's also not as pathetic as you make him out to be, thinking he has to be an elite hitter to overcome those shortcomings. Again, I think the Pads would be extremely happy with last year's version of Hosmer. Re: Nola, that's not how I read this from the SDUT: "Catcher Austin Nola’s rehab assignment is all but over, and he is expected to join the team in Miami. Nola caught seven innings and hit a home run for Triple-A El Paso on Monday. Nola, who sprained his left knee May 24, will likely split time behind the plate with Victor Caratini pretty evenly for a while. Nola can also play first and second base." I can see him resting Hosmer on occasion against a tougher lefty, but sounds like they want him to catch about half the games moving forward.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 15:35:19 GMT -8
Why does he need to be an "elite" hitter statistically to have value? Where does that come from? Again, I don't get that mindset. Where it is written that Eric Hosmer, beyond other players, must be an "elite hitter"? If he's a decent to good hitter he provides value IMO, given the rest of our line-up. The 2020 Eric Hosmer would be more than enough. Usually I agree with you, but I don't get your mindset at all when it comes to Hosmer. Because his defense is so bad, given the positional adjustment, that he doesn't provide value. He doesn't hit for enough power, doesn't walk and posts middling peripherals. Value is in relation to contract, and his value as compared to a replacement level player is basement territory. He had to go on a heater to get above zero, this season. Being a league average hitter and a far below average defender is not value. And this is not an anti-Hosmer manifesto... Fernando's defense keeps him from being the best player in baseball right now. If he was even league average right now, he'd be a 6 WAR player today. We'll see what the future holds, but I find it interesting they plan on using Nola at first base when he comes back. Why are you surprised that they would use Nola at first against tough lefties? That will keep Cronenworth at his best position, second base. No conspiracy here.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 16:11:46 GMT -8
I'm right here, John. You can address me directly. We're not in a foxhole, by the way. (Who even would make a silly comparison?) Stop drawing personal conclusions on an individual because you lack critical analysis. Thanks. Lol. Your critical analysis blinds you. Crystal clear on this one. 0.2 WAR speaks for itself.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 16:12:55 GMT -8
Because his defense is so bad, given the positional adjustment, that he doesn't provide value. He doesn't hit for enough power, doesn't walk and posts middling peripherals. Value is in relation to contract, and his value as compared to a replacement level player is basement territory. He had to go on a heater to get above zero, this season. Being a league average hitter and a far below average defender is not value. And this is not an anti-Hosmer manifesto... Fernando's defense keeps him from being the best player in baseball right now. If he was even league average right now, he'd be a 6 WAR player today. We'll see what the future holds, but I find it interesting they plan on using Nola at first base when he comes back. You have to forget about his contract; that's a sunk cost. He'll never justify the contract, but at this point we don't need him to in order to be successful. He's not a great defender, but he's also not as pathetic as you make him out to be, thinking he has to be an elite hitter to overcome those shortcomings. Again, I think the Pads would be extremely happy with last year's version of Hosmer. Re: Nola, that's not how I read this from the SDUT: "Catcher Austin Nola’s rehab assignment is all but over, and he is expected to join the team in Miami. Nola caught seven innings and hit a home run for Triple-A El Paso on Monday. Nola, who sprained his left knee May 24, will likely split time behind the plate with Victor Caratini pretty evenly for a while. Nola can also play first and second base." I can see him resting Hosmer on occasion against a tougher lefty, but sounds like they want him to catch about half the games moving forward. Tingler said he likely won't catch in back to back games the rest of the season and the majority of his rehab stint was spent at first base. I would imagine they want to get his bat in the lineup as much as they can.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 16:14:16 GMT -8
Because his defense is so bad, given the positional adjustment, that he doesn't provide value. He doesn't hit for enough power, doesn't walk and posts middling peripherals. Value is in relation to contract, and his value as compared to a replacement level player is basement territory. He had to go on a heater to get above zero, this season. Being a league average hitter and a far below average defender is not value. And this is not an anti-Hosmer manifesto... Fernando's defense keeps him from being the best player in baseball right now. If he was even league average right now, he'd be a 6 WAR player today. We'll see what the future holds, but I find it interesting they plan on using Nola at first base when he comes back. Why are you surprised that they would use Nola at first against tough lefties? That will keep Cronenworth at his best position, second base. No conspiracy here. That's not what was said....Lol. I know you just read everything that others post and assume it as gospel, but that isn't the case here. Hosmer's better against lefties this year than righties, for what's it worth....and he was benched multiple times against righties already this season. Nola's rehab stint was almost exclusively done at first base...and that isn't pure coincidence. With him unable to catch multiple games in a row, he's going to play a fair bit of first.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 16:32:44 GMT -8
Why are you surprised that they would use Nola at first against tough lefties? That will keep Cronenworth at his best position, second base. No conspiracy here. That's not what was said....Lol. I know you just read everything that others post and assume it as gospel, but that isn't the case here. Hosmer's better against lefties this year than righties, for what's it worth....and he was benched multiple times against righties already this season. Nola's rehab stint was almost exclusively done at first base...and that isn't pure coincidence. With him unable to catch multiple games in a row, he's going to play a fair bit of first. I'd rather have Nola spell Hosmer at first than Cronenworth. Cronenworth needs to stay at second. I'm sure that's the thinking by the Pads as well and that's why he continues to get reps at first base. Makes sense and like I said, no conspiracy, or surprise.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 20, 2021 21:28:07 GMT -8
Because his defense is so bad, given the positional adjustment, that he doesn't provide value. He doesn't hit for enough power, doesn't walk and posts middling peripherals. Value is in relation to contract, and his value as compared to a replacement level player is basement territory. He had to go on a heater to get above zero, this season. Being a league average hitter and a far below average defender is not value. And this is not an anti-Hosmer manifesto... Fernando's defense keeps him from being the best player in baseball right now. If he was even league average right now, he'd be a 6 WAR player today. We'll see what the future holds, but I find it interesting they plan on using Nola at first base when he comes back. You have to forget about his contract; that's a sunk cost. He'll never justify the contract, but at this point we don't need him to in order to be successful. He's not a great defender, but he's also not as pathetic as you make him out to be, thinking he has to be an elite hitter to overcome those shortcomings. Again, I think the Pads would be extremely happy with last year's version of Hosmer. Re: Nola, that's not how I read this from the SDUT: "Catcher Austin Nola’s rehab assignment is all but over, and he is expected to join the team in Miami. Nola caught seven innings and hit a home run for Triple-A El Paso on Monday. Nola, who sprained his left knee May 24, will likely split time behind the plate with Victor Caratini pretty evenly for a while. Nola can also play first and second base." I can see him resting Hosmer on occasion against a tougher lefty, but sounds like they want him to catch about half the games moving forward. Both have good points - Hosmer's contract is an albatross, but its an albatross that we are stuck with, so until/if we can trade him its a sunk cost. In relation to his contract, he is playing abysmally. If he had Profar's contract, he would still not be a great player, but perhaps a replacement level player, and that pill would be easier to swallow with a cheaper contract.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 20, 2021 22:47:45 GMT -8
That's not what was said....Lol. I know you just read everything that others post and assume it as gospel, but that isn't the case here. Hosmer's better against lefties this year than righties, for what's it worth....and he was benched multiple times against righties already this season. Nola's rehab stint was almost exclusively done at first base...and that isn't pure coincidence. With him unable to catch multiple games in a row, he's going to play a fair bit of first. I'd rather have Nola spell Hosmer at first than Cronenworth. Cronenworth needs to stay at second. I'm sure that's the thinking by the Pads as well and that's why he continues to get reps at first base. Makes sense and like I said, no conspiracy, or surprise. Except in Nola's last 6 games, he has alternated between DH and C catcher. He hasn't played 1st base in a week.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2021 7:10:38 GMT -8
Because his defense is so bad, given the positional adjustment, that he doesn't provide value. He doesn't hit for enough power, doesn't walk and posts middling peripherals. Value is in relation to contract, and his value as compared to a replacement level player is basement territory. He had to go on a heater to get above zero, this season. Being a league average hitter and a far below average defender is not value. And this is not an anti-Hosmer manifesto... Fernando's defense keeps him from being the best player in baseball right now. If he was even league average right now, he'd be a 6 WAR player today. We'll see what the future holds, but I find it interesting they plan on using Nola at first base when he comes back. You have to forget about his contract; that's a sunk cost. He'll never justify the contract, but at this point we don't need him to in order to be successful. He's not a great defender, but he's also not as pathetic as you make him out to be, thinking he has to be an elite hitter to overcome those shortcomings. Again, I think the Pads would be extremely happy with last year's version of Hosmer. Re: Nola, that's not how I read this from the SDUT: "Catcher Austin Nola’s rehab assignment is all but over, and he is expected to join the team in Miami. Nola caught seven innings and hit a home run for Triple-A El Paso on Monday. Nola, who sprained his left knee May 24, will likely split time behind the plate with Victor Caratini pretty evenly for a while. Nola can also play first and second base." I can see him resting Hosmer on occasion against a tougher lefty, but sounds like they want him to catch about half the games moving forward. There's some truth in this. The contract was a disaster, and anyone with a brain knows Hosmer will never live up to it. Many MLB players don't live up to mega deals (Hi, Albert Pujols). So, it's ok to celebrate the small wins. *He had a very good shortened 2020 season, which helped clinch a playoff berth. *He is on an absolute heater the last 15 days, hitting .407 with a 1.256 OPS. It would be helpful for this club if Hosmer could sustain even an .800 or so OPS the rest of the season. In this lineup, he doesn't have to be 2015-2016 Hosmer. And forget dumping his contract, unless Preller attaches a good prospect or two. The farm system is no longer what it was, I'd be careful on attaching any prospects of value.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 21, 2021 9:27:15 GMT -8
You have to forget about his contract; that's a sunk cost. He'll never justify the contract, but at this point we don't need him to in order to be successful. He's not a great defender, but he's also not as pathetic as you make him out to be, thinking he has to be an elite hitter to overcome those shortcomings. Again, I think the Pads would be extremely happy with last year's version of Hosmer. Re: Nola, that's not how I read this from the SDUT: "Catcher Austin Nola’s rehab assignment is all but over, and he is expected to join the team in Miami. Nola caught seven innings and hit a home run for Triple-A El Paso on Monday. Nola, who sprained his left knee May 24, will likely split time behind the plate with Victor Caratini pretty evenly for a while. Nola can also play first and second base." I can see him resting Hosmer on occasion against a tougher lefty, but sounds like they want him to catch about half the games moving forward. Tingler said he likely won't catch in back to back games the rest of the season and the majority of his rehab stint was spent at first base. I would imagine they want to get his bat in the lineup as much as they can. Don't see it. I doubt they carry 3 catchers and don't see them starting both very often. I think he'll get the rare start at 1B, but as Acee notes I think he'll split time behind the plate and give us a decent righty bat off the bench.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2021 9:33:30 GMT -8
Tingler said he likely won't catch in back to back games the rest of the season and the majority of his rehab stint was spent at first base. I would imagine they want to get his bat in the lineup as much as they can. Don't see it. I doubt they carry 3 catchers and don't see them starting both very often. I think he'll get the rare start at 1B, but as Acee notes I think he'll split time behind the plate and give us a decent righty bat off the bench. Would be a mistake. Nola's plate discipline is very good and when this team is grinding away in the box, they are a much more dangerous team to face. But we'll see. Would like to see Kim at second and Cronenworth at first more often. Defensively, Kim is borderline elite.
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