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Post by aardvark on Jul 19, 2021 22:45:52 GMT -8
The one I remember was he let one drop on purpose in the 2nd inning. He saw it all the way. He thought he would try and get a DP. Didn't work. The Houston drop will forever be etched in Padre lore. He just plain whiffed on that pop-up in Houston. Wasn't even charged with an error. April 7th, 2018. I was there in person. Had great barbecue before the game, which turned to serious indigestion after Hosmer ran by the ball.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 19, 2021 23:43:12 GMT -8
It's not based on a 60 game season. It's based on 60 + 90, or basically the entirety of 1 year. I put a lot more weight in that than what happened 2 to 3 years ago, but that's just me. Take out July and see what you're left with. So now July doesn't count? It didn't exist? Should we remove one month from every play player when looking at stats? I'll take the most recent month over prior months and the most recent year over prior years. I think recency does matter. I guess I prefer to live more in the present than in the past.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 23:51:31 GMT -8
Take out July and see what you're left with. So now July doesn't count? It didn't exist? Should we remove one month from every play player when looking at stats? I'll take the most recent month over prior months and the most recent year over prior years. I think recency does matter. I guess I prefer to live more in the present than in the past. That's pretty much what I told him. Let's take out a good stretch from any player and let it diminish him. Hilarious. It doesn't fit what he wants to sell, so he'll discount it. Nice try. Also, July is in the time frame when he tweaked his stance and swing. It's obviously relevant.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 23:52:46 GMT -8
The Houston drop will forever be etched in Padre lore. He just plain whiffed on that pop-up in Houston. Wasn't even charged with an error. April 7th, 2018. I was there in person. Had great barbecue before the game, which turned to serious indigestion after Hosmer ran by the ball. Why was he not charged with an error when it was a whiff? Is there more to it?
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 23:54:50 GMT -8
I didn't see it. Did he get the out? If not, that's not good. Yeah, he got the out at first, after he thought he would try to get 2 by letting it drop. There were three players all on 1st at the time, with Cronenworth almost getting cleaned out by the batter-runner. Hosmer just should have caught the pop-up and taken the out without all the other BS. I agree. I don't like "gimmicks" so to speak. Just catch the ball. I've seen other players do that and it doesn't work.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 7:57:22 GMT -8
Take out July and see what you're left with. So now July doesn't count? It didn't exist? Should we remove one month from every play player when looking at stats? I'll take the most recent month over prior months and the most recent year over prior years. I think recency does matter. I guess I prefer to live more in the present than in the past. It's not about living in the present...it's about removing outliers due to small sample size noise and/or adjusting for league context. We know from experience Hosmer isn't a .400 hitter. Atleast I hope we do...June was the worst month of his career, but we're going to completely ignore that, I assume. Current form is one thing, but adjusting for reality is another. As mentioned, even on this wildly unsustainable streak, he still only has 6 extra base hits for the month. In a game of ebbs and flows, mostly every hitter is going to have a good 20-30 game run at some point. He's no exception, as he usually has one of these a year...before crashing back down. I look for indicators beyond surface numbers to determine what's real and what isn't. Very helpful.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 20, 2021 7:57:49 GMT -8
He just plain whiffed on that pop-up in Houston. Wasn't even charged with an error. April 7th, 2018. I was there in person. Had great barbecue before the game, which turned to serious indigestion after Hosmer ran by the ball. Why was he not charged with an error when it was a whiff? Is there more to it? Many plays like that are credited as a hit (if fair) or no play (if foul) if the defensive player doesn't get a glove on the ball.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 8:02:30 GMT -8
So now July doesn't count? It didn't exist? Should we remove one month from every play player when looking at stats? I'll take the most recent month over prior months and the most recent year over prior years. I think recency does matter. I guess I prefer to live more in the present than in the past. That's pretty much what I told him. Let's take out a good stretch from any player and let it diminish him. Hilarious. It doesn't fit what he wants to sell, so he'll discount it. Nice try. Also, July is in the time frame when he tweaked his stance and swing. It's obviously relevant. I'm not selling anything. He hit .320 in April, .247 in May and .172 in June. You think he's a .409 hitter based on that because he tweaked his swing? We're talking about 44 at-bats in July. His average on batted balls in play is .485. (Hint : Not sustainable on any planet for a player with no speed who doesn't hit the ball in the air with regularity) I'm sorry, but that just shows a lack of understanding on your part. This is exactly why you look (for yourself) for some deeper context. His groundball rate in July is 54.3%. If you think he's going to continue to hit .400+ with a groundball rate over 50%....Just not going to happen. He's been fortunate to find holes in the infield and that will even out as time goes on.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 20, 2021 8:52:47 GMT -8
So now July doesn't count? It didn't exist? Should we remove one month from every play player when looking at stats? I'll take the most recent month over prior months and the most recent year over prior years. I think recency does matter. I guess I prefer to live more in the present than in the past. It's not about living in the present...it's about removing outliers due to small sample size noise and/or adjusting for league context. We know from experience Hosmer isn't a .400 hitter. Atleast I hope we do...June was the worst month of his career, but we're going to completely ignore that, I assume. Current form is one thing, but adjusting for reality is another. As mentioned, even on this wildly unsustainable streak, he still only has 6 extra base hits for the month. In a game of ebbs and flows, mostly every hitter is going to have a good 20-30 game run at some point. He's no exception, as he usually has one of these a year...before crashing back down. I look for indicators beyond surface numbers to determine what's real and what isn't. Very helpful. A) No one has said he's a .400 hitter - where did that ridiculous comment come from? B) Many players have cold and hot months over the course of a season. But it doesn't mean you focus on the lows and forget the highs. C) 30 days isn't a small sample size. 10 days is a small sample size. 30 can show a trend, not necessarily to .400 but possibly towards a solid .270-type finish. Personally I'm happy he's raking right now, and hope he can he a solid #6-#7 hitter in our lineup. If you choose to expect the worst knock yourself out. I find that mindset to be depressing.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 9:04:41 GMT -8
It's not about living in the present...it's about removing outliers due to small sample size noise and/or adjusting for league context. We know from experience Hosmer isn't a .400 hitter. Atleast I hope we do...June was the worst month of his career, but we're going to completely ignore that, I assume. Current form is one thing, but adjusting for reality is another. As mentioned, even on this wildly unsustainable streak, he still only has 6 extra base hits for the month. In a game of ebbs and flows, mostly every hitter is going to have a good 20-30 game run at some point. He's no exception, as he usually has one of these a year...before crashing back down. I look for indicators beyond surface numbers to determine what's real and what isn't. Very helpful. A) No one has said he's a .400 hitter - where did that ridiculous comment come from? B) Many players have cold and hot months over the course of a season. But it doesn't mean you focus on the lows and forget the highs. C) 30 days isn't a small sample size. 10 days is a small sample size. 30 can show a trend, not necessarily to .400 but possibly towards a solid .270-type finish. Personally I'm happy he's raking right now, and hope he can he a solid #6-#7 hitter in our lineup. If you choose to expect the worst knock yourself out. I find that mindset to be depressing. He's hitting .409 in July, which is the entire premise of this latest iteration of this thread? I don't know what else you're referring to. 30 days? It's barely been two weeks with the All-Star break. His worst ever month was just last month....so I'm confused. Over his last 20 games, he's hitting .354. Great. The BABIP is .425 over that time frame. I'm not sure what is hard to understand here - My hopes and happiness aren't relevant. It's about stats, nothing more. The stats tell me this isn't a trend, it's statistical noise until it's extrapolated out further.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 9:51:14 GMT -8
That's pretty much what I told him. Let's take out a good stretch from any player and let it diminish him. Hilarious. It doesn't fit what he wants to sell, so he'll discount it. Nice try. Also, July is in the time frame when he tweaked his stance and swing. It's obviously relevant. I'm not selling anything. He hit .320 in April, .247 in May and .172 in June. You think he's a .409 hitter based on that because he tweaked his swing? We're talking about 44 at-bats in July. His average on batted balls in play is .485. (Hint : Not sustainable on any planet for a player with no speed who doesn't hit the ball in the air with regularity) I'm sorry, but that just shows a lack of understanding on your part. This is exactly why you look (for yourself) for some deeper context. His groundball rate in July is 54.3%. If you think he's going to continue to hit .400+ with a groundball rate over 50%....Just not going to happen. He's been fortunate to find holes in the infield and that will even out as time goes on. I don't think he's a 400 hitter. You keep beating that drum, but it's not even close to the truth. I'll be happy if he ends up hitting 270-280, and keeps on driving in RISP at a great clip. Of course there's ebbs and flows in terms of streaks. I've never said that I think he's going to hit 400+ the rest of the year. I've said that I'm enjoying this current streak and I hope he stays as consistent as possible this year. He's not going to continue hitting at a 400 clip, but there's nothing wrong with hoping he ends up having a good year, and helps the Padres to a World Series victory. You say that he is going to end up the s##ts. I say I'm hoping he doesn't. Pretty simple.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 9:57:15 GMT -8
It's not about living in the present...it's about removing outliers due to small sample size noise and/or adjusting for league context. We know from experience Hosmer isn't a .400 hitter. Atleast I hope we do...June was the worst month of his career, but we're going to completely ignore that, I assume. Current form is one thing, but adjusting for reality is another. As mentioned, even on this wildly unsustainable streak, he still only has 6 extra base hits for the month. In a game of ebbs and flows, mostly every hitter is going to have a good 20-30 game run at some point. He's no exception, as he usually has one of these a year...before crashing back down. I look for indicators beyond surface numbers to determine what's real and what isn't. Very helpful. A) No one has said he's a .400 hitter - where did that ridiculous comment come from? B) Many players have cold and hot months over the course of a season. But it doesn't mean you focus on the lows and forget the highs. C) 30 days isn't a small sample size. 10 days is a small sample size. 30 can show a trend, not necessarily to .400 but possibly towards a solid .270-type finish. Personally I'm happy he's raking right now, and hope he can he a solid #6-#7 hitter in our lineup. If you choose to expect the worst knock yourself out. I find that mindset to be depressing. Good job articulating what I'm saying, as well. He'll focus on the lows, because Hosmer's highs don't bode well for his thoughts on him. Like you, I'm just simply hoping for the best and not expecting the worst like Ryan. His new stance and swing looks like it's helping. People can turn things around for the best, but some people don't want to see it, for one reason or another.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 10:04:33 GMT -8
That's pretty much what I told him. Let's take out a good stretch from any player and let it diminish him. Hilarious. It doesn't fit what he wants to sell, so he'll discount it. Nice try. Also, July is in the time frame when he tweaked his stance and swing. It's obviously relevant. I'm not selling anything. He hit .320 in April, .247 in May and .172 in June. You think he's a .409 hitter based on that because he tweaked his swing? We're talking about 44 at-bats in July. His average on batted balls in play is .485. (Hint : Not sustainable on any planet for a player with no speed who doesn't hit the ball in the air with regularity) I'm sorry, but that just shows a lack of understanding on your part. This is exactly why you look (for yourself) for some deeper context. His groundball rate in July is 54.3%. If you think he's going to continue to hit .400+ with a groundball rate over 50%....Just not going to happen. He's been fortunate to find holes in the infield and that will even out as time goes on. You also never bring up how well he does hitting with RISP. Why? Wait, I know why.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 10:07:51 GMT -8
A) No one has said he's a .400 hitter - where did that ridiculous comment come from? B) Many players have cold and hot months over the course of a season. But it doesn't mean you focus on the lows and forget the highs. C) 30 days isn't a small sample size. 10 days is a small sample size. 30 can show a trend, not necessarily to .400 but possibly towards a solid .270-type finish. Personally I'm happy he's raking right now, and hope he can he a solid #6-#7 hitter in our lineup. If you choose to expect the worst knock yourself out. I find that mindset to be depressing. Good job articulating what I'm saying, as well. He'll focus on the lows, because Hosmer's highs don't bode well for his thoughts on him. Like you, I'm just simply hoping for the best and not expecting the worst like Ryan. His new stance and swing looks like it's helping. People can turn things around for the best, but some people don't want to see it, for one reason or another. It's not my fault you have blinders on and can't comprehend basics here. I'm sorry. Fun fact : You aren't obligated to like every player on every team, or even every player on your own team. It's okay to be critical. It's okay to hold players to a higher standard. I've criticized Fernando, Manny, et al in the same light...because it's about performance, not sunshine and rainbows.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 10:16:35 GMT -8
I'm not selling anything. He hit .320 in April, .247 in May and .172 in June. You think he's a .409 hitter based on that because he tweaked his swing? We're talking about 44 at-bats in July. His average on batted balls in play is .485. (Hint : Not sustainable on any planet for a player with no speed who doesn't hit the ball in the air with regularity) I'm sorry, but that just shows a lack of understanding on your part. This is exactly why you look (for yourself) for some deeper context. His groundball rate in July is 54.3%. If you think he's going to continue to hit .400+ with a groundball rate over 50%....Just not going to happen. He's been fortunate to find holes in the infield and that will even out as time goes on. You also never bring up how well he does hitting with RISP. Why? Wait, I know why. You don't...and you've proven it with your lack of understanding of statistics, evidenced again here. His numbers with runners on are good. RISP is encompassed by wRC+ - I'm looking at a total picture, you're looking at a snapshot in time. I choose to see *everything*, understanding that hot streaks and cold streaks are just that....streaks. Not overwhelming evidence of a conspiracy that I hate Eric Hosmer. I'll go even further on why I don't think this streak is meaningful. Beyond just the 44 at-bats, the groundball rate of over 53%...His hard hit percentage is 22.9% for July. (That's not good, at all)....so in simple terms, he's hitting the ball on the ground consistently, without barreling, with a .485 batted balls in play mark that's nearly 200 points over league average. Do I want it to continue? Well, yeah. Is there any rational evidence to indicate that it will? No, not really.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 20, 2021 11:31:44 GMT -8
You also never bring up how well he does hitting with RISP. Why? Wait, I know why. You don't...and you've proven it with your lack of understanding of statistics, evidenced again here. His numbers with runners on are good. RISP is encompassed by wRC+ - I'm looking at a total picture, you're looking at a snapshot in time. I choose to see *everything*, understanding that hot streaks and cold streaks are just that....streaks. Not overwhelming evidence of a conspiracy that I hate Eric Hosmer. I'll go even further on why I don't think this streak is meaningful. Beyond just the 44 at-bats, the groundball rate of over 53%...His hard hit percentage is 22.9% for July. (That's not good, at all)....so in simple terms, he's hitting the ball on the ground consistently, without barreling, with a .485 batted balls in play mark that's nearly 200 points over league average. Do I want it to continue? Well, yeah. Is there any rational evidence to indicate that it will? No, not really. I, for sure get it. You say, because of what his stats say going back to this date, he will absolutely not end the year with a good season. You say that people can never improve on that, ever. Talk about blinders and being rigid. Sheesh.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 20, 2021 11:58:33 GMT -8
A) No one has said he's a .400 hitter - where did that ridiculous comment come from? B) Many players have cold and hot months over the course of a season. But it doesn't mean you focus on the lows and forget the highs. C) 30 days isn't a small sample size. 10 days is a small sample size. 30 can show a trend, not necessarily to .400 but possibly towards a solid .270-type finish. Personally I'm happy he's raking right now, and hope he can he a solid #6-#7 hitter in our lineup. If you choose to expect the worst knock yourself out. I find that mindset to be depressing. He's hitting .409 in July, which is the entire premise of this latest iteration of this thread? I don't know what else you're referring to. 30 days? It's barely been two weeks with the All-Star break. His worst ever month was just last month....so I'm confused. Over his last 20 games, he's hitting .354. Great. The BABIP is .425 over that time frame. I'm not sure what is hard to understand here - My hopes and happiness aren't relevant. It's about stats, nothing more. The stats tell me this isn't a trend, it's statistical noise until it's extrapolated out further. I don't think you get it. It's not about him hitting .409 in July, it's about he's made improvements & thus far they're working. Nobody expects him to hit .300 moving forward, only that I don't expect him to hit .172 either. Over the past 30 days he's been among the top 5-6 hitting 1B's in the game, so why can't people enjoy that without you criticizing them for doing so? 21 games, 67 ABs isn't a blip. Yes, I'd love to see a few singles turn into doubles & a few doubles turned into HR's and to see him improve his walk rate, but a .949 OPS over those 30 days isn't something to sneeze at. I'm not expecting him to be our clean-up hitter or even a top 5 guy in our line-up. If he can simply be a productive 6 (vs. righties)/7 (vs. occasional lefties) hitter in our line-up that's good enough for me. I'm also not saying I don't think he'll get more days off, or that it wouldn't be great to upgrade the position. But if Hosmer's 30-day streak continues into 40 the pressure to do so is much less IMO. If he slides down to sub .200 over that span then we'll see. I'm just hoping that doesn't happen, and he settles in somewhere in the range of a .825 OPS. Last season he was .851, but in a limited timeframe. I do not think he's a .727 guy either. Only time will tell, not pessimism.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 12:10:50 GMT -8
You don't...and you've proven it with your lack of understanding of statistics, evidenced again here. His numbers with runners on are good. RISP is encompassed by wRC+ - I'm looking at a total picture, you're looking at a snapshot in time. I choose to see *everything*, understanding that hot streaks and cold streaks are just that....streaks. Not overwhelming evidence of a conspiracy that I hate Eric Hosmer. I'll go even further on why I don't think this streak is meaningful. Beyond just the 44 at-bats, the groundball rate of over 53%...His hard hit percentage is 22.9% for July. (That's not good, at all)....so in simple terms, he's hitting the ball on the ground consistently, without barreling, with a .485 batted balls in play mark that's nearly 200 points over league average. Do I want it to continue? Well, yeah. Is there any rational evidence to indicate that it will? No, not really. I, for sure get it. You say, because of what his stats say going back to this date, he will absolutely not end the year with a good season. You say that people can never improve on that, ever. Talk about blinders and being rigid. Sheesh. (Because once again you fail to understand that's all we have seen going back to 2018)...It's been the same cycle for the last three seasons. He is who he is at this point.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 20, 2021 12:12:34 GMT -8
He's hitting .409 in July, which is the entire premise of this latest iteration of this thread? I don't know what else you're referring to. 30 days? It's barely been two weeks with the All-Star break. His worst ever month was just last month....so I'm confused. Over his last 20 games, he's hitting .354. Great. The BABIP is .425 over that time frame. I'm not sure what is hard to understand here - My hopes and happiness aren't relevant. It's about stats, nothing more. The stats tell me this isn't a trend, it's statistical noise until it's extrapolated out further. I don't think you get it. It's not about him hitting .409 in July, it's about he's made improvements & thus far they're working. Nobody expects him to hit .300 moving forward, only that I don't expect him to hit .172 either. Over the past 30 days he's been among the top 5-6 hitting 1B's in the game, so why can't people enjoy that without you criticizing them for doing so? 21 games, 67 ABs isn't a blip. Yes, I'd love to see a few singles turn into doubles & a few doubles turned into HR's and to see him improve his walk rate, but a .949 OPS over those 30 days isn't something to sneeze at. I'm not expecting him to be our clean-up hitter or even a top 5 guy in our line-up. If he can simply be a productive 6 (vs. righties)/7 (vs. occasional lefties) hitter in our line-up that's good enough for me. I'm also not saying I don't think he'll get more days off, or that it wouldn't be great to upgrade the position. But if Hosmer's 30-day streak continues into 40 the pressure to do so is much less IMO. If he slides down to sub .200 over that span then we'll see. I'm just hoping that doesn't happen, and he settles in somewhere in the range of a .825 OPS. Last season he was .851, but in a limited timeframe. I do not think he's a .727 guy either. Only time will tell, not pessimism. I'm a realist. That's all. The larger picture is he needs to be an elite hitter, or in that ballpark, to be a net positive asset. .270/.320/.400 isn't good enough, when you factor in the rest of the profile. That's all I've got.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 20, 2021 12:34:27 GMT -8
I don't think you get it. It's not about him hitting .409 in July, it's about he's made improvements & thus far they're working. Nobody expects him to hit .300 moving forward, only that I don't expect him to hit .172 either. Over the past 30 days he's been among the top 5-6 hitting 1B's in the game, so why can't people enjoy that without you criticizing them for doing so? 21 games, 67 ABs isn't a blip. Yes, I'd love to see a few singles turn into doubles & a few doubles turned into HR's and to see him improve his walk rate, but a .949 OPS over those 30 days isn't something to sneeze at. I'm not expecting him to be our clean-up hitter or even a top 5 guy in our line-up. If he can simply be a productive 6 (vs. righties)/7 (vs. occasional lefties) hitter in our line-up that's good enough for me. I'm also not saying I don't think he'll get more days off, or that it wouldn't be great to upgrade the position. But if Hosmer's 30-day streak continues into 40 the pressure to do so is much less IMO. If he slides down to sub .200 over that span then we'll see. I'm just hoping that doesn't happen, and he settles in somewhere in the range of a .825 OPS. Last season he was .851, but in a limited timeframe. I do not think he's a .727 guy either. Only time will tell, not pessimism. I'm a realist. That's all. The larger picture is he needs to be an elite hitter, or in that ballpark, to be a net positive asset. .270/.320/.400 isn't good enough, when you factor in the rest of the profile. That's all I've got. Could not disagree more. If this were 2018 not 2021, and we didn't have several very good hitters already in our line-up the need for him to be "elite" is much greater. We need him to be an average 1B, or "solid" more so than "elite", and as stated I don't see him ending up with a .727 OPS when the season ends. I also don't think he's .949 like the past 30 days, but somewhere in between works for me (closer to last year's .851). He's definitely not a great fielder any more, but if he can be a solid #6/#7 hitter, deliver in the clutch & provide the clubhouse leadership he has been providing he's definitely a net positive asset.
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