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Post by mactec on Feb 25, 2018 10:48:15 GMT -8
Do we root for N.M. today against UNLV? I'm not sure it matters. Of all teams that could end up at 10 wins: UNM: Owns H2H against all potential 10-win teams. UNLV: Tied H2H, secondary tie breaker is wins vs Nevada. If we beat Nevada and lose at Boise, we actually probably win this one. Tie breaker is H2H, then record against the top team in the conference, then record against second top team, and so on. We'd both be 1-1 against Nevada, 0-2 against Boise, 0-2 against Fresno, but we'd be 0-1 against UNM and they are 0-2 (if they lose) Wyoming: Tied H2H. Using same assumptions as above, we'd both be 1-1 against Nevada, but they'd be 1-1 against Boise. With that said, UNM has the 4 seed more or less locked up. It's between us, UNLV, and Wyoming for the #5 seed. But even if we beat UNLV in the tie breaker, we cannot beat Wyoming in a tie-breaker. If end with 10 wins, we'd need Wyoming to have 9. And with 9 wins and a home game against Air Force left, I don't feel very comfortable with that. It's likely 11 wins or bust. |
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Post by azteclou on Feb 25, 2018 11:16:57 GMT -8
I had penciled in Fresno beating Wyo at home last night.
Was surprised to see result this AM. That one hurt
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 25, 2018 15:54:56 GMT -8
New concern... Fresno St dropping to 4th with New Mexico taking 3rd. I would not want to see them open against Fresno.
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Feb 25, 2018 16:08:35 GMT -8
New concern... Fresno St dropping to 4th with New Mexico taking 3rd. I would not want to see them open against Fresno. Agreed, it would be a bummer to win out only to finish 5th and play Fresno in the first round. I’d rather play SJ on Wed and then UNM on TH than play Fresno, then Nevada. I think the conference tournament is wide open since Drew went down; I think I would bet on anybody over Nevada in the championship game. They’re basically playing 6 guys. |
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Post by docmm on Feb 25, 2018 16:14:58 GMT -8
In some ways, it's been fun throwing our emotional hopes and dreams into a 5th place or better finish in the conference. But what a difference worrying about a late season UNLV vs New Mexico game results instead of watching a dozen or so national programs win or lose and affecting our MM seeding.
In more ways, it doesn't matter that much where we end up in the top 5. Either we go on a run for 3 days or we don't. If we're hot, we'll beat any team in the conference. If not, we go home and lick our wounds. The only other scenario I see would be for us to sweep this weeks two games and then lose in the Conference Tournament final. We'd finish strong (8 of 9) and a 21-11 record with a win over Gonzaga might get us into the NIT.
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 25, 2018 16:32:50 GMT -8
In some ways, it's been fun throwing our emotional hopes and dreams into a 5th place or better finish in the conference. But what a difference worrying about a late season UNLV vs New Mexico game results instead of watching a dozen or so national programs win or lose and affecting our MM seeding. In more ways, it doesn't matter that much where we end up in the top 5. Either we go on a run for 3 days or we don't. If we're hot, we'll beat any team in the conference. If not, we go home and lick our wounds. The only other scenario I see would be for us to sweep this weeks two games and then lose in the Conference Tournament final. We'd finish strong (8 of 9) and a 21-11 record with a win over Gonzaga might get us into the NIT. You got me. In the past I've thoroughly enjoyed when they were on the bubble or solidly in and speculating and analyzing whether they'd get in or what seed they might get. This thread is designed to help keep me invested and interested by over analyzing a rather silly battle for 5th and it's worked! Let's hope they keep it rolling Tuesday because at this point of they lose another game it's prob all over. |
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Post by uncledougy on Feb 26, 2018 6:51:34 GMT -8
Actually, I think the 6th seed is better. I know it’s one more game, but the path is much more desirable. The last 2 games are going to be tough and it’s almost like our post season is already started.
By the way, i sure hope the coaches take any post season tournament possible. This team needs more games together and more games the better. Don’t forget, Nevada won the CBI a few years ago in a best of 3 game series.
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Post by mactec on Feb 26, 2018 7:17:06 GMT -8
In some ways, it's been fun throwing our emotional hopes and dreams into a 5th place or better finish in the conference. But what a difference worrying about a late season UNLV vs New Mexico game results instead of watching a dozen or so national programs win or lose and affecting our MM seeding. In more ways, it doesn't matter that much where we end up in the top 5. Either we go on a run for 3 days or we don't. If we're hot, we'll beat any team in the conference. If not, we go home and lick our wounds. The only other scenario I see would be for us to sweep this weeks two games and then lose in the Conference Tournament final. We'd finish strong (8 of 9) and a 21-11 record with a win over Gonzaga might get us into the NIT. Honestly the NIT doesn't sound too bad right now. Those games in 2009 and 2016 were a blast. |
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Post by Frantic on Feb 26, 2018 8:18:42 GMT -8
In some ways, it's been fun throwing our emotional hopes and dreams into a 5th place or better finish in the conference. Yes. It was so exciting to think about the possibility of finishing 5th in conference. Unfortunately it looks like 6th place again. But no worries, we can all dream about SDSU finishing 5th next year! Go Aztecs! |
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Post by legkick on Feb 26, 2018 8:40:01 GMT -8
Honestly the NIT doesn't sound too bad right now. Those games in 2009 and 2016 were a blast. Can't see how NIT is a viable option at this point. Definitely reserved for regular season champions, and the rest of the spots usually go to P5s that didn't make the tourney. CBI seems a more likely option, assuming a very strong finish. |
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Post by sdsuballer on Feb 26, 2018 8:52:09 GMT -8
Realistically we arent winning this conference tournament unless both Kell and Pope play to their high school rankings.. That would mean Malik and Trey both averaging 40ppg combined. Id rather play the 4th game even if we dont win the championship game as it would put us around 21-22 win season and possibly playing in the NIT.
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Post by northcountymike on Feb 26, 2018 9:57:32 GMT -8
Honestly the NIT doesn't sound too bad right now. Those games in 2009 and 2016 were a blast. Can't see how NIT is a viable option at this point. Definitely reserved for regular season champions, and the rest of the spots usually go to P5s that didn't make the tourney. CBI seems a more likely option, assuming a very strong finish. Agreed. However, let's see how big the win over Gonzaga ends up being. |
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Post by zed on Feb 26, 2018 10:19:52 GMT -8
Honestly the NIT doesn't sound too bad right now. Those games in 2009 and 2016 were a blast. Can't see how NIT is a viable option at this point. Definitely reserved for regular season champions, and the rest of the spots usually go to P5s that didn't make the tourney. CBI seems a more likely option, assuming a very strong finish. Currently, the CBI seems like the obvious option, but the Aztecs could turn some NIT heads with a strong finish. The MW got 3 teams in last season. |
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Post by fisherville on Feb 26, 2018 10:23:00 GMT -8
I'm in the minority but I believe in this team even without Pope.
Narain- Still a bit green on defense but has improved a lot you can tell how comfortable he is finishing in traffic
Hoetzel- Up and down year but playing his best right now and even his defense looks better than earlier in the year
Mitchell- Goes without saying, has improved a lot since earlier in conference season like you hope a frosh to do
McDaniels- Same as Mitchell
The x factors are Schakel and Hemsley, Hemsley has been somewhat disappointing this year but his shooting has gotten better as season has gone on, he's seemed more engaged on defense than he was earlier in the year.
Schakel is a tough minded player that isn't very athletic or quick but his defense has improved as season has gone on and is a capable shooter.
Malik would definitely help us but even without him I could see us winning the conference tournament, with Nevada's injuries/depth they are definitely beatable
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Post by docmm on Feb 26, 2018 16:16:47 GMT -8
Can't see how NIT is a viable option at this point. Definitely reserved for regular season champions, and the rest of the spots usually go to P5s that didn't make the tourney. CBI seems a more likely option, assuming a very strong finish. Currently, the CBI seems like the obvious option, but the Aztecs could turn some NIT heads with a strong finish. The MW got 3 teams in last season. An NIT Bracketology site has 3 MWC teams in their 32; Boise St a #1 seed, SDSU a #7 and Fresno State a #8. www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/That they have us seeded ahead of Fresno State says more about our history than our present state. |
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Post by Frantic on Feb 26, 2018 18:29:19 GMT -8
That they have us seeded ahead of Fresno State says more about our history than our present state. Hold on. Does this make you a negative nellie cronie?  |
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Post by aztecalum on Feb 26, 2018 18:29:47 GMT -8
Looks like if we win out (Boise and Nevada at home) AND Wyoming lose at Boise on Saturday we have the #5 seed wrapped up. IF we go into MW tourny next week on 6 game winning streak I like our chances even if we open against Fresno State.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 26, 2018 18:30:58 GMT -8
If we win out we have a shot at the 3 seed, go Air Force!
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 27, 2018 22:21:07 GMT -8
Drive for 5 STILL ALIVE!! Win on Saturday and it should be all locked up. Great win in spite of refs and terrible outside shooting. Also, can't get over the chin on Haney on Boise St, just had to throw that out there.
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Post by northcountymike on Feb 27, 2018 23:53:56 GMT -8
That they have us seeded ahead of Fresno State says more about our history than our present state. Hold on. Does this make you a negative nellie cronie? Uh, that's "Crony" to you! |
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