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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Feb 20, 2018 8:52:45 GMT -8
Los dos Pedros has killer tortas!
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Post by AccessBowlTime on Feb 20, 2018 8:53:23 GMT -8
Getting back on topic, New Mexico at Wyoming tonight. Both teams at 8-6 so no matter what it will give SDSU the chance to gain on one of them with a win tomorrow. I suppose Wyoming losing at home would be the best outcome. Roberto's on El Cajon BLVD in north park never disappoints. Yes. If Wyoming loses to UNM in Laramie, we will have a great chance of overtaking them. Although some places are better than others, Mexican food anywhere never disappoints. Can we be the Comidas Mexicanas? We could have a student wearing a plate of carne asada one game, then be a big burrito the next. |
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Post by DeeMoney on Feb 20, 2018 9:07:16 GMT -8
I would rather be the 6th seed than the 5th. I would exchange the day off in rd 1 and play SJSU (which essentially is just a warm-up practice for any team with hopes of winning the conference anyways); and in return receive a deferred matchup with Nevada, increasing the likelihood (slim as it may be) that they get knocked off early.
Nevada is the class of the conference and our odds of winning the tourney increase by having them in the opposite side of the bracket. BSU is no pushover, but clearly a level down from Nevada.
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 20, 2018 9:22:48 GMT -8
I respectfully disagree. 4 games in 4 days would be a tall task no matter the oppopnent. And most likely to win the auto berth they will face Nevada one way or another. Plus, if we root for 6th that ruins this thread I started.
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Post by johnnyutah on Feb 20, 2018 9:24:08 GMT -8
New Mexico will be the underdog for every remaining game except @ CSU. Most likely scenario is that they win 2 and finish with 10 wins. Wyoming will probably win vs Air Force/San Jose, probably lose against Nevada/Boise and favored to win vs New Mexico. Most likely scenario is they win 3 and also finish with 10 wins. Utah State has two winnable games, but two probable L's and will likely not reach the 10-win mark. It's unlikely that any of the Top 4 will finish with less than 10 wins. With that said, 11 is probably the "magic number." And with 5 games left at 6-7, that leaves 0 margin room for a loss. If we only get 10 wins, the tie breaker is H2H of all tied teams. Unfortunately, we lose almost every tie-breaker scenario as we've gone 0-1 vs New Mexico, 0-2 vs Fresno, 1-1 vs Wyoming, 0-1 (best case is 1-0) vs UNLV. Given that the secondary tie-breaker is wins against #1, and UNLV and Wyoming (the only teams we can go .500 against) have already beat Nevada, it seems unlikely that we would win any realistic tie-breaker scenario. So for the #5 seed, we basically need to win out or we need New Mexico and Wyoming to collapse and pick up an extra loss (and even if that happened, we'd need to win 4 of the last 5). There's obviously more scenarios than those, but I don't see fresno/unlv winning less than 2. I think a 6th seed at best may be inevitable at this point. The silver lining in that is it would mean we don't face Nevada until the finals. But given that they just lost Lindsey Drew to a torn achilles, they only have 7 healthy players (and #7 has played 7 mins per game). They might face some depth problems and be more tired despite having one less game. If the Aztecs go 3-1 to finish (pretty realistic IMO), they'll finish 10-8. - I think Fresno gets the #3 spot finishing at least 11-7 (currently 9-5 with home against WYO and 3 road games @unlv, @afa, @unm. Win at home and @afa and they lock up #3. At 10-8, I think there's a pretty decent chance there are 4 teams tied:- SDSU (7-7) Likely wins: @air Force, @sjsu Likely losses: None Could go Either Way: Boise St, Nevada - UNLV (8-6) Likely wins: none Likely losses: None Could go Either Way: Fresno, @unm, Nevada, @utah St. - New Mexico (8-6) Likely wins: @csu Likely losses: None Could go Either Way: @wyo, UNLV, Fresno - Wyoming (8-6) Likely wins: Air Force Likely losses: @boise St Could go Either Way: UNM, @fresno We split with Wyoming and UNLV -- any tie with UNM is going to be challenging for us being as we only played them once. Side note: UNM is really lucky as they don't play sdsu or home vs. Nevada. I think Wyoming winning tonight would be better for SDSU. The Lobos would drop to 8-7 and then the loser of UNM/UNLV would have a decent shot of finishing 9-7 which would get the Aztecs to be at worst the 6 seed playing SJSU. We definitely want to cheer for Fresno the rest of the way. |
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Post by azson on Feb 20, 2018 11:04:21 GMT -8
Getting back on topic, New Mexico at Wyoming tonight. Both teams at 8-6 so no matter what it will give SDSU the change to gain on one of them with a win tomorrow. I suppose Wyoming losing at home would be the best outcome. Roberto's on El Cajon BLVD in north park never disappoints. Roberto's anywhere never disappoints. And there's lots in Vegas as well, which makes this Nor Boy even more stoked for the MWCT  |
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Post by azson on Feb 20, 2018 11:26:47 GMT -8
I would rather be the 6th seed than the 5th. I would exchange the day off in rd 1 and play SJSU (which essentially is just a warm-up practice for any team with hopes of winning the conference anyways); and in return receive a deferred matchup with Nevada, increasing the likelihood (slim as it may be) that they get knocked off early. Nevada is the class of the conference and our odds of winning the tourney increase by having them in the opposite side of the bracket. BSU is no pushover, but clearly a level down from Nevada. I have to agree with mayham. As tempting as playing SJSU/being on opposite side of bracket as UNR is, playing 4 in 4 is tough no matter what. That's one extra game in which Pope/TK could have a freak injury and one less day for TK to heal what I assume won't be a 100% ankle. You mention BSU, but sounds like you're assuming we'd meet them, as you didn't mention who we'd play on Thurs if we get the 6-seed and that would most likely be either FSU (match up well against us) or UNLV (home game). I guarantee you Dutch wants the 5 over the 6. |
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Post by DeeMoney on Feb 20, 2018 12:02:49 GMT -8
I would rather be the 6th seed than the 5th. I would exchange the day off in rd 1 and play SJSU (which essentially is just a warm-up practice for any team with hopes of winning the conference anyways); and in return receive a deferred matchup with Nevada, increasing the likelihood (slim as it may be) that they get knocked off early. Nevada is the class of the conference and our odds of winning the tourney increase by having them in the opposite side of the bracket. BSU is no pushover, but clearly a level down from Nevada. I have to agree with mayham. As tempting as playing SJSU/being on opposite side of bracket as UNR is, playing 4 in 4 is tough no matter what. That's one extra game in which Pope/TK could have a freak injury and one less day for TK to heal what I assume won't be a 100% ankle. You mention BSU, but sounds like you're assuming we'd meet them, as you didn't mention who we'd play on Thurs if we get the 6-seed and that would most likely be either FSU (match up well against us) or UNLV (home game). I guarantee you Dutch wants the 5 over the 6. I meant BSU in the semis, assuming we get past most likely Fresno (sorry I didnt really make that clear). In my mind Nevada is a good margin ahead of BSU, who is then probably the head of a group of 4-6 (of which we are a part of). I think us, BSU, and FSU are all fairly even; since UNLV is at home they are on par with that level with Wyoming, UNM, and possibly USU a tier down from that. I have no doubt that Dutch wants the 5 over the 6; but looking at it from the numbers the best shot any given team has of getting past Nevada in the MWCT is for them not to play them- assuming we accept that the team that has been consistently best does not always play their best or win every game against opponents who have been consistently worse. Assuming that those mid tier teams I mentioned above are all 50/50 vs each other and a 75/25 disadvantage against Nevada (and we have a 90% shot to beat SJSU); playing from the 6th seed our chances of winning it all are 14%, from the 5 seed those odds drop to 8%. The main reason being that we have one extra shot of Nevada getting upset and not having to play them. I still hold that SJSU is bad enough that any team with a legit shot of winning the conf tourney should beat them with starters playing no more than 10 minutes (not much more work than a practice) then getting their subs to eat up minutes. If that is such, I would gladly give up the small amount of stamina and energy it would take for an increased shot at earning the autobid to the big dance. Of course, these are just numbers- they still have to win on the court. And in either model, we have over an 85% chance of NOT winning it all |
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Post by azson on Feb 20, 2018 12:10:59 GMT -8
I have to agree with mayham. As tempting as playing SJSU/being on opposite side of bracket as UNR is, playing 4 in 4 is tough no matter what. That's one extra game in which Pope/TK could have a freak injury and one less day for TK to heal what I assume won't be a 100% ankle. You mention BSU, but sounds like you're assuming we'd meet them, as you didn't mention who we'd play on Thurs if we get the 6-seed and that would most likely be either FSU (match up well against us) or UNLV (home game). I guarantee you Dutch wants the 5 over the 6. I meant BSU in the semis, assuming we get past most likely Fresno (sorry I didnt really make that clear). In my mind Nevada is a good margin ahead of BSU, who is then probably the head of a group of 4-6 (of which we are a part of). I think us, BSU, and FSU are all fairly even; since UNLV is at home they are on par with that level with Wyoming, UNM, and possibly USU a tier down from that. I have no doubt that Dutch wants the 5 over the 6; but looking at it from the numbers the best shot any given team has of getting past Nevada in the MWCT is for them not to play them- assuming we accept that the team that has been consistently best does not always play their best or win every game against opponents who have been consistently worse. Assuming that those mid tier teams I mentioned above are all 50/50 vs each other and a 75/25 disadvantage against Nevada (and we have a 90% shot to beat SJSU); playing from the 6th seed our chances of winning it all are 14%, from the 5 seed those odds drop to 6%. The main reason being that we have one extra shot of Nevada getting upset and not having to play them. I still hold that SJSU is bad enough that any team with a legit shot of winning the conf tourney should beat them with starters playing no more than 10 minutes (not much more work than a practice) then getting their subs to eat up minutes. If that is such, I would gladly give up the small amount of stamina and energy it would take for an increased shot at earning the autobid to the big dance. Of course, these are just numbers- they still have to win on the court. And in either model, we have over an 85% chance of NOT winning it all The other issue that will be interesting to see, now that we're relatively healthy and have our rotation in order, is how we matchup with BSU and UNR when we play them at the V. Who knows, with UNR's starting PG now done for the season (which means their already thin bench will be even thinner), maybe we DO want to be on their side of the bracket. Keep in mind, that Friday semi-game of the MWCT will be UNR's first time playing back to back days with such a thin bench. |
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Post by DeeMoney on Feb 20, 2018 12:44:57 GMT -8
I meant BSU in the semis, assuming we get past most likely Fresno (sorry I didnt really make that clear). In my mind Nevada is a good margin ahead of BSU, who is then probably the head of a group of 4-6 (of which we are a part of). I think us, BSU, and FSU are all fairly even; since UNLV is at home they are on par with that level with Wyoming, UNM, and possibly USU a tier down from that. I have no doubt that Dutch wants the 5 over the 6; but looking at it from the numbers the best shot any given team has of getting past Nevada in the MWCT is for them not to play them- assuming we accept that the team that has been consistently best does not always play their best or win every game against opponents who have been consistently worse. Assuming that those mid tier teams I mentioned above are all 50/50 vs each other and a 75/25 disadvantage against Nevada (and we have a 90% shot to beat SJSU); playing from the 6th seed our chances of winning it all are 14%, from the 5 seed those odds drop to 6%. The main reason being that we have one extra shot of Nevada getting upset and not having to play them. I still hold that SJSU is bad enough that any team with a legit shot of winning the conf tourney should beat them with starters playing no more than 10 minutes (not much more work than a practice) then getting their subs to eat up minutes. If that is such, I would gladly give up the small amount of stamina and energy it would take for an increased shot at earning the autobid to the big dance. Of course, these are just numbers- they still have to win on the court. And in either model, we have over an 85% chance of NOT winning it all The other issue that will be interesting to see, now that we're relatively healthy and have our rotation in order, is how we matchup with BSU and UNR when we play them at the V. Who knows, with UNR's starting PG now done for the season (which means their already thin bench will be even thinner), maybe we DO want to be on their side of the bracket. Keep in mind, that Friday semi-game of the MWCT will be UNR's first time playing back to back days with such a thin bench. Yeah, thats something to take into account. The other thing that always scares me is UNLV. I get it, we smoked them just the other day, but them virtually playing at home is always a pain |
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Post by azson on Feb 20, 2018 12:53:09 GMT -8
The other issue that will be interesting to see, now that we're relatively healthy and have our rotation in order, is how we matchup with BSU and UNR when we play them at the V. Who knows, with UNR's starting PG now done for the season (which means their already thin bench will be even thinner), maybe we DO want to be on their side of the bracket. Keep in mind, that Friday semi-game of the MWCT will be UNR's first time playing back to back days with such a thin bench. Yeah, thats something to take into account. The other thing that always scares me is UNLV. I get it, we smoked them just the other day, but them virtually playing at home is always a pain As much as I loathe the Rehbull fans, I am happy their team is improved. Them being $#!++y the last few years has really sucked the life out of the tourney/venue. Hopefully them being improved + UNM/WYO (fans travel well) being better than expected will get the tourney back to where it was a few years ago. |
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 20, 2018 13:30:18 GMT -8
I'm actually more afraid of Fresno State than any other team as they've had our number now for a couple seasons.
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Post by northcountymike on Feb 20, 2018 15:10:35 GMT -8
I'm actually more afraid of Fresno State than any other team as they've had our number now for a couple seasons. I agree - to an extent. Although at this point, I think it's more than just having "our number." That being said, Nevada and Fresno State scare me the most. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Feb 20, 2018 15:28:57 GMT -8
I hope the exclamation point on the end of this thread title is meant in a tongue-in-cheek manner.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 20, 2018 15:32:34 GMT -8
Fresno is no lock to finish with 11 wins
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 20, 2018 20:17:37 GMT -8
And in a somewhat shocking result, New Mexico beats Wyoming on the road. It's going to be interesting to see where all these cards fall.
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Post by PowayAztec on Feb 20, 2018 20:23:50 GMT -8
And in a somewhat shocking result, New Mexico beats Wyoming on the road. It's going to be interesting to see where all these cards fall. Lobos won, 119-114. I guess nobody wanted to play defense. Tomorrow...we beat Air Force and if Fresno beats UNLV, we're in a three-way tie for fifth. |
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Post by azson on Feb 21, 2018 12:43:09 GMT -8
And in a somewhat shocking result, New Mexico beats Wyoming on the road. It's going to be interesting to see where all these cards fall. Lobos won, 119-114. I guess nobody wanted to play defense. Tomorrow...we beat Air Force and if Fresno beats UNLV, we're in a three-way tie for fifth. Anyone know how the 3-way (or more) tiebreakers work? |
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Post by johnnyutah on Feb 21, 2018 13:43:45 GMT -8
Lobos won, 119-114. I guess nobody wanted to play defense. Tomorrow...we beat Air Force and if Fresno beats UNLV, we're in a three-way tie for fifth. Anyone know how the 3-way (or more) tiebreakers work? It is (1) the combined H2H record of the teams and if there's still ties it is (2) records against the top teams in descending order. It gets a little trickier with unbalanced schedule, but I think it just goes to win %.
For example, SDSU finished tied with Wyoming and UNLV for say 5th place:SDSU 2-2 (split with each) Wyoming 1-2 (split with SDSU, lost only match-up to UNLV) UNLV 2-1 (split with SDSU, won vs. WYO) 5 seed- UNLV 6 seed- SDSU 7 seed - Wyoming |
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Post by aztecking on Feb 21, 2018 21:16:42 GMT -8
Anyway you break it down we’ll most likely need to win 2 games as underdogs. That makes avoiding the play-in of the utmost importance. We don’t need to be playing as underdogs on tired legs.
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