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Post by mayham81 on Feb 15, 2018 10:58:28 GMT -8
Since we are essentially counting down to the MWC tournament, the one thing I'm left to root for in the regular season is for the team to move up to 5th and avoid the extra day of games. They are currently in 8th. Beating UNLV at home Saturday will go a long way. Other teams to worry about on Sat:
New Mexico - bye
Wyoming hosts San Jose State, that's a win for WYO
Utah State hosts Nevada, should be a loss for Utah State
Best case scenario if they win is moving up to 7th.
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Post by mactec on Feb 15, 2018 12:13:44 GMT -8
New Mexico will be the underdog for every remaining game except @ CSU. Most likely scenario is that they win 2 and finish with 10 wins.
Wyoming will probably win vs Air Force/San Jose, probably lose against Nevada/Boise and favored to win vs New Mexico. Most likely scenario is they win 3 and also finish with 10 wins.
Utah State has two winnable games, but two probable L's and will likely not reach the 10-win mark.
It's unlikely that any of the Top 4 will finish with less than 10 wins.
With that said, 11 is probably the "magic number." And with 5 games left at 6-7, that leaves 0 margin room for a loss. If we only get 10 wins, the tie breaker is H2H of all tied teams. Unfortunately, we lose almost every tie-breaker scenario as we've gone 0-1 vs New Mexico, 0-2 vs Fresno, 1-1 vs Wyoming, 0-1 (best case is 1-0) vs UNLV. Given that the secondary tie-breaker is wins against #1, and UNLV and Wyoming (the only teams we can go .500 against) have already beat Nevada, it seems unlikely that we would win any realistic tie-breaker scenario.
So for the #5 seed, we basically need to win out or we need New Mexico and Wyoming to collapse and pick up an extra loss (and even if that happened, we'd need to win 4 of the last 5). There's obviously more scenarios than those, but I don't see fresno/unlv winning less than 2. I think a 6th seed at best may be inevitable at this point. The silver lining in that is it would mean we don't face Nevada until the finals. But given that they just lost Lindsey Drew to a torn achilles, they only have 7 healthy players (and #7 has played 7 mins per game). They might face some depth problems and be more tired despite having one less game.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 15, 2018 12:32:52 GMT -8
11 wins gives us like a 90% shot of top 5.
10 wins probably like 35-40% shot.
9 wins- Forget about it
But this year there is a big difference between 6th seed and 7th seed, it is clear who by far the worst team in conference is. CSU/AFA can beat us on nuetral floor, SJSU I guess "can" by definition but the odds are incredibly slim and it's far more likely we can rest our starters and keep them in mid 20 minutes played than vs afa/csu. So basically the goal should be top 6, I'd be happy with finishing 4-1 down stretch.
Another note- Afa is more than capable at home of beating anyone in this conference other than maybe Nevada, those are far from gimmies for SDSU/USU/Fresno St
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Post by azson on Feb 15, 2018 14:27:13 GMT -8
At this point I'll be happy if we just climb out of the 8-hole. The 8-seed would be brutal for us as 1. the 8/9 game is at 11 am on Wed, so our already predicted low fan turnout will be that much lower (would we even hit triple digits?) and 2. the winner of that game plays a rested UNR on Thurs at noon.
6 seed would mos def be better than 7 seed, but either one is on the opposite side of the bracket as UNR, so although 7-seed is tough (most likely play BSU on Thurs) it's SO much better than the 8-seed prospect.
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Post by Frantic on Feb 15, 2018 16:34:46 GMT -8
I can't wait to yell out: We're Number 5! We're Number 5!
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Feb 15, 2018 17:17:09 GMT -8
Yahoo, the drive for 5!
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 17, 2018 20:00:47 GMT -8
Drive for 5 still alive after great win today. Rest of the day went chalk. SDSU up to 7. Two very winnable games next week!
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Post by azteccc on Feb 17, 2018 20:09:21 GMT -8
New Mexico will be the underdog for every remaining game except @ CSU. Most likely scenario is that they win 2 and finish with 10 wins. Wyoming will probably win vs Air Force/San Jose, probably lose against Nevada/Boise and favored to win vs New Mexico. Most likely scenario is they win 3 and also finish with 10 wins. Utah State has two winnable games, but two probable L's and will likely not reach the 10-win mark. It's unlikely that any of the Top 4 will finish with less than 10 wins. With that said, 11 is probably the "magic number." And with 5 games left at 6-7, that leaves 0 margin room for a loss. If we only get 10 wins, the tie breaker is H2H of all tied teams. Unfortunately, we lose almost every tie-breaker scenario as we've gone 0-1 vs New Mexico, 0-2 vs Fresno, 1-1 vs Wyoming, 0-1 (best case is 1-0) vs UNLV. Given that the secondary tie-breaker is wins against #1, and UNLV and Wyoming (the only teams we can go .500 against) have already beat Nevada, it seems unlikely that we would win any realistic tie-breaker scenario. So for the #5 seed, we basically need to win out or we need New Mexico and Wyoming to collapse and pick up an extra loss (and even if that happened, we'd need to win 4 of the last 5). There's obviously more scenarios than those, but I don't see fresno/unlv winning less than 2. I think a 6th seed at best may be inevitable at this point. The silver lining in that is it would mean we don't face Nevada until the finals. But given that they just lost Lindsey Drew to a torn achilles, they only have 7 healthy players (and #7 has played 7 mins per game). They might face some depth problems and be more tired despite having one less game. Haven’t seen a post this good on AMesa since the last time State played this well against a MW foe. |
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Post by giju on Feb 17, 2018 21:11:09 GMT -8
We have this in the bag..we are going on a run of W’s...wait and see boys
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 18, 2018 6:16:01 GMT -8
We have this in the bag..we are going on a run of W’s...wait and see boys Had the chimichanga burrito at Ponce's the other night. Killer. |
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 18, 2018 8:48:58 GMT -8
We have this in the bag..we are going on a run of W’s...wait and see boys I haven't been to, On The Border Restaurant in a while, but I had a nice carne asada burrito there. The chips there are really good. |
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Post by giju on Feb 18, 2018 21:21:25 GMT -8
We have this in the bag..we are going on a run of W’s...wait and see boys I haven't been to, On The Border Restaurant in a while, but I had a nice carne asada burrito there. The chips there are really good. I will take El Torito any day of the week...you are really good as turning every post into a food blog..will make sure I participate on each thread to make it more tasty for the supporters |
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 20, 2018 6:46:22 GMT -8
I haven't been to, On The Border Restaurant in a while, but I had a nice carne asada burrito there. The chips there are really good. I will take El Torito any day of the week...you are really good as turning every post into a food blog..will make sure I participate on each thread to make it more tasty for the supporters El Torito?!? Cholo, please. |
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Post by PAC12 Aztec on Feb 20, 2018 7:31:21 GMT -8
I haven't been to, On The Border Restaurant in a while, but I had a nice carne asada burrito there. The chips there are really good. I will take El Torito any day of the week...you are really good as turning every post into a food blog..will make sure I participate on each thread to make it more tasty for the supporters Oh good lord! :rotflmao Please tell me you are kidding and being sarcastic. The one down the street from me in Marina Del Rey might be the worst food establishment I have ever been to. Thank good for tourism or this place would be out of business. In fact, it might be out of business now since I haven't been in so long. |
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Post by aztecfan1 on Feb 20, 2018 7:44:33 GMT -8
Talk about morphing a topic. Ok, I'll bite. Since we've moved North, we are big on Anejo bar and grill in Escondido. One of a kind. Chains? Never.
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 20, 2018 7:59:16 GMT -8
I will take El Torito any day of the week...you are really good as turning every post into a food blog..will make sure I participate on each thread to make it more tasty for the supporters Oh good lord! :rotflmao Please tell me you are kidding and being sarcastic. The one down the street from me in Marina Del Rey might be the worst food establishment I have ever been to. Thank good for tourism or this place would be out of business. In fact, it might be out of business now since I haven't been in so long. El Toritos have the worst Mexican food and are way over priced. One in Carlsbad just closed down. |
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 20, 2018 7:59:38 GMT -8
Getting back on topic, New Mexico at Wyoming tonight. Both teams at 8-6 so no matter what it will give SDSU the chance to gain on one of them with a win tomorrow. I suppose Wyoming losing at home would be the best outcome.
Roberto's on El Cajon BLVD in north park never disappoints.
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 20, 2018 8:01:01 GMT -8
Getting back on topic, New Mexico at Wyoming tonight. Both teams at 8-6 so no matter what it will give SDSU the change to gain on one of them with a win tomorrow. I suppose Wyoming losing at home would be the best outcome. Roberto's on El Cajon BLVD in north park never disappoints. Roberto's anywhere never disappoints. |
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Post by aztecanthony on Feb 20, 2018 8:20:59 GMT -8
Getting back on topic, New Mexico at Wyoming tonight. Both teams at 8-6 so no matter what it will give SDSU the change to gain on one of them with a win tomorrow. I suppose Wyoming losing at home would be the best outcome. Roberto's on El Cajon BLVD in north park never disappoints. Roberto's anywhere never disappoints. I was a vendor out of college in the early 80s, met the actual Roberto who started it all. The IRS taxation rules forced the name changes to Hill, Jill, Hom, anything Bertos except Robertos, to avoid certain taxation. Maybe carne Asada burritos for the team would help them go on a March run.... |
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 20, 2018 8:40:48 GMT -8
Roberto's anywhere never disappoints. I was a vendor out of college in the early 80s, met the actual Roberto who started it all. The IRS taxation rules forced the name changes to Hill, Jill, Hom, anything Bertos except Robertos, to avoid certain taxation. Maybe carne Asada burritos for the team would help them go on a March run.... Oh, wow. I didn't know that. So, does he own all of those Bertos restaurants with slightly different names? |
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