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Post by insider on Jun 8, 2012 10:30:33 GMT -8
Keith Law had a chat a few weeks ago where he commented on Hedges, something to the effect of "Defense is there, the bat is better than people think"....I've read more than one scouting report that said if he could just be average offensively, he's an All-Star caliber catcher. The defense is that good. Ryan, this team needs impact bats in the worst way. Defensive catchers who can't hit well (see: Lou Marson, Jeff Mathis, etc) make good BACKUPS. That's not how bad his bat is, he is more of a Yadier Molina type, he is a future borderline all star. Even the people that are not as high as him like experts kevin goldstein, Keith law, and Jason Parks see a above average starter as his most likely outcome. What this team needs is impact players in whichever way they come. Hedges has that potential down the line. Liriano and Hedges arguably have the highest upside in the whole system and it is a very good one. The Padres hitting has actually been considerably better than their starting pitching this year. Also you can always trade good starting pitching (if you have it) for bats if need be down the line, getting the best prospects possible help that way.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 12:05:05 GMT -8
Ryan, this team needs impact bats in the worst way. Defensive catchers who can't hit well (see: Lou Marson, Jeff Mathis, etc) make good BACKUPS. That's not how bad his bat is, he is more of a Yadier Molina type, he is a future borderline all star. Even the people that are not as high as him like experts kevin goldstein, Keith law, and Jason Parks see a above average starter as his most likely outcome. What this team needs is impact players in whichever way they come. Hedges has that potential down the line. Liriano and Hedges arguably have the highest upside in the whole system and it is a very good one. The Padres hitting has actually been considerably better than their starting pitching this year.Also you can always trade good starting pitching (if you have it) for bats if need be down the line, getting the best prospects possible help that way. That's simply false. The Padres rank next to last in the NL in BA at .226. .226! Dead last in homeruns. Their team ERA is a respectable 3.96, good for 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs. www.mlb.comAlso, I wasn't comparing Hedges to either Marson or Mathis. I don't know anything about Hedges. I was simply saying that I'm not ready to get excited about a "defensive catcher", as this franchise is sorely, SORELY lacking impact bats at the major league level. If Hedges can hit, then terrific. We won't know for some time yet (at levels that matter). Hedge's minor league stats look good to me this season, but he's still so young. And, he of course has Grandal ahead of him on the future depth chart. This kid may never make the Padres. I prefer to analyze impact players at AA and AAA. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000aus
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 8, 2012 12:34:41 GMT -8
That's not how bad his bat is, he is more of a Yadier Molina type, he is a future borderline all star. Even the people that are not as high as him like experts kevin goldstein, Keith law, and Jason Parks see a above average starter as his most likely outcome. What this team needs is impact players in whichever way they come. Hedges has that potential down the line. Liriano and Hedges arguably have the highest upside in the whole system and it is a very good one. The Padres hitting has actually been considerably better than their starting pitching this year.Also you can always trade good starting pitching (if you have it) for bats if need be down the line, getting the best prospects possible help that way. That's simply false. The Padres rank next to last in the NL in BA at .226. .226! Dead last in homeruns. Their team ERA is a respectable 3.96, good for 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs. www.mlb.comAlso, I wasn't comparing Hedges to either Marson or Mathis. I don't know anything about Hedges. I was simply saying that I'm not ready to get excited about a "defensive catcher", as this franchise is sorely, SORELY lacking impact bats at the major league level. If Hedges can hit, then terrific. We won't know for some time yet (at levels that matter). Hedge's minor league stats look good to me this season, but he's still so young. And, he of course has Grandal ahead of him on the future depth chart. This kid may never make the Padres. I prefer to analyze impact players at AA and AAA. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000aus On the RoadPadres are 10th in OPS Padres are 16th (last) in ERA Adding home numbers will always inflate our pitching numbers and deflate our hitting numbers.
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Post by insider on Jun 8, 2012 13:40:34 GMT -8
That's not how bad his bat is, he is more of a Yadier Molina type, he is a future borderline all star. Even the people that are not as high as him like experts kevin goldstein, Keith law, and Jason Parks see a above average starter as his most likely outcome. What this team needs is impact players in whichever way they come. Hedges has that potential down the line. Liriano and Hedges arguably have the highest upside in the whole system and it is a very good one. The Padres hitting has actually been considerably better than their starting pitching this year.Also you can always trade good starting pitching (if you have it) for bats if need be down the line, getting the best prospects possible help that way. That's simply false. The Padres rank next to last in the NL in BA at .226. .226! Dead last in homeruns. Their team ERA is a respectable 3.96, good for 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs. www.mlb.comAlso, I wasn't comparing Hedges to either Marson or Mathis. I don't know anything about Hedges. I was simply saying that I'm not ready to get excited about a "defensive catcher", as this franchise is sorely, SORELY lacking impact bats at the major league level. If Hedges can hit, then terrific. We won't know for some time yet (at levels that matter). Hedge's minor league stats look good to me this season, but he's still so young. And, he of course has Grandal ahead of him on the future depth chart. This kid may never make the Padres. I prefer to analyze impact players at AA and AAA. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000ausERA without context is about as useless of a baseball stat there is.
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 8, 2012 15:49:23 GMT -8
That's simply false. The Padres rank next to last in the NL in BA at .226. .226! Dead last in homeruns. Their team ERA is a respectable 3.96, good for 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs. www.mlb.comAlso, I wasn't comparing Hedges to either Marson or Mathis. I don't know anything about Hedges. I was simply saying that I'm not ready to get excited about a "defensive catcher", as this franchise is sorely, SORELY lacking impact bats at the major league level. If Hedges can hit, then terrific. We won't know for some time yet (at levels that matter). Hedge's minor league stats look good to me this season, but he's still so young. And, he of course has Grandal ahead of him on the future depth chart. This kid may never make the Padres. I prefer to analyze impact players at AA and AAA. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000ausERA without context is about as useless of a baseball stat there is. The context for Padres is home and road as I showed above. Last in ERA on the road says more about the Padres staff than 9th overall.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 17:20:00 GMT -8
That's simply false. The Padres rank next to last in the NL in BA at .226. .226! Dead last in homeruns. Their team ERA is a respectable 3.96, good for 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs. www.mlb.comAlso, I wasn't comparing Hedges to either Marson or Mathis. I don't know anything about Hedges. I was simply saying that I'm not ready to get excited about a "defensive catcher", as this franchise is sorely, SORELY lacking impact bats at the major league level. If Hedges can hit, then terrific. We won't know for some time yet (at levels that matter). Hedge's minor league stats look good to me this season, but he's still so young. And, he of course has Grandal ahead of him on the future depth chart. This kid may never make the Padres. I prefer to analyze impact players at AA and AAA. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000aus On the RoadPadres are 10th in OPS Padres are 16th (last) in ERA Adding home numbers will always inflate our pitching numbers and deflate our hitting numbers. Regardless, his quote was that the Padres hitting has been considerably better than the pitching. There's no logical way to make that argument. None. The Padres have the most punch and judy lineup I have seen in some time, though Quentin's off the DL tear has been impressive. Of course, he won't hit .500 with a 1200 OPS for very long, so that will all balance it out soon.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 17:20:37 GMT -8
That's simply false. The Padres rank next to last in the NL in BA at .226. .226! Dead last in homeruns. Their team ERA is a respectable 3.96, good for 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs. www.mlb.comAlso, I wasn't comparing Hedges to either Marson or Mathis. I don't know anything about Hedges. I was simply saying that I'm not ready to get excited about a "defensive catcher", as this franchise is sorely, SORELY lacking impact bats at the major league level. If Hedges can hit, then terrific. We won't know for some time yet (at levels that matter). Hedge's minor league stats look good to me this season, but he's still so young. And, he of course has Grandal ahead of him on the future depth chart. This kid may never make the Padres. I prefer to analyze impact players at AA and AAA. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000ausERA without context is about as useless of a baseball stat there is. Another false statement.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 17:24:13 GMT -8
ERA without context is about as useless of a baseball stat there is. The context for Padres is home and road as I showed above. Last in ERA on the road says more about the Padres staff than 9th overall. True enough, though there's also strength of schedule thus far at home vs. the road and other factors. That's not the point. The point is the Padres hitting has been brutally awful. The original point of the discussion was needing impact bats, which NO fan can deny. No point really in breaking down which faction of the team sucks more, or sucks less. The TEAM sucks this year. But when you're hitting .226 as a team and have the least amount of homers in baseball, that's very bad. Last I checked, you have to play 81 games at home, and 81 away. It's the front offices job to put together a team that can produce in either capacity. The road stats aren't the true indicator, anymore than the home stats are. You have to look at both and make a determination, and use multiple factors.
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Post by insider on Jun 8, 2012 17:39:11 GMT -8
On the RoadPadres are 10th in OPS Padres are 16th (last) in ERA Adding home numbers will always inflate our pitching numbers and deflate our hitting numbers. Regardless, his quote was that the Padres hitting has been considerably better than the pitching. There's no logical way to make that argument. None. The Padres have the most punch and judy lineup I have seen in some time, though Quentin's off the DL tear has been impressive. Of course, he won't hit .500 with a 1200 OPS for very long, so that will all balance it out soon. The advanced and actual useful stats show it to be correct. The lineup is far better than the starting pitching.
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Post by insider on Jun 8, 2012 17:39:58 GMT -8
ERA without context is about as useless of a baseball stat there is. Another false statement. My bad, I shouldn't have put the "about" in there, though batting average is up there as well.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 17:56:24 GMT -8
That's simply false. The Padres rank next to last in the NL in BA at .226. .226! Dead last in homeruns. Their team ERA is a respectable 3.96, good for 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs. www.mlb.comAlso, I wasn't comparing Hedges to either Marson or Mathis. I don't know anything about Hedges. I was simply saying that I'm not ready to get excited about a "defensive catcher", as this franchise is sorely, SORELY lacking impact bats at the major league level. If Hedges can hit, then terrific. We won't know for some time yet (at levels that matter). Hedge's minor league stats look good to me this season, but he's still so young. And, he of course has Grandal ahead of him on the future depth chart. This kid may never make the Padres. I prefer to analyze impact players at AA and AAA. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000ausERA without context is about as useless of a baseball stat there is. You like to use strong words for these arguments, which sometimes lead your argument into being off. "Considerably" better. "Useless" stat. Team ERA, whether it's situational, split, context.....is never a useless stat. Not over 60 games.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 17:59:14 GMT -8
Regardless, his quote was that the Padres hitting has been considerably better than the pitching. There's no logical way to make that argument. None. The Padres have the most punch and judy lineup I have seen in some time, though Quentin's off the DL tear has been impressive. Of course, he won't hit .500 with a 1200 OPS for very long, so that will all balance it out soon. The advanced and actual useful stats show it to be correct. The lineup is far better than the starting pitching. Then to you, the starting pitching must be the worst of all time. Because I think the Padres are on pace to set some truly dreadful offensive marks, barring a drastic turnaround. When you say "advanced and actual useful"....do you in fact mean ones that you can't show as proof? Because there are no stats......advanced or not, that will show the Padres offense to be anything more than awful. FYI, I am a student of advanced metrics as well. WAR, BABIP, splits, all that. Some are quite useful. Some are not. The standard stats used in everyday baseball discussion have a place as well, for good reason.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 18:00:33 GMT -8
My bad, I shouldn't have put the "about" in there, though batting average is up there as well. BA, OBP, and OPS are three key indicators of an offense. I'm sure you prefer BABIP in the month of June, with runners on 2nd and 3rd, but that's okay.
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 11, 2012 12:01:37 GMT -8
The context for Padres is home and road as I showed above. Last in ERA on the road says more about the Padres staff than 9th overall. True enough, though there's also strength of schedule thus far at home vs. the road and other factors. That's not the point. The point is the Padres hitting has been brutally awful. The original point of the discussion was needing impact bats, which NO fan can deny. No point really in breaking down which faction of the team sucks more, or sucks less. The TEAM sucks this year. But when you're hitting .226 as a team and have the least amount of homers in baseball, that's very bad. Last I checked, you have to play 81 games at home, and 81 away. It's the front offices job to put together a team that can produce in either capacity. The road stats aren't the true indicator, anymore than the home stats are. You have to look at both and make a determination, and use multiple factors. So if you were to figure how fast someone was and only knew they ran an 11 second 100 yard dash on flat ground and a 14 second 100 yard dash up a hill, would you average the two to know how fast they were?
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 11, 2012 12:09:54 GMT -8
My bad, I shouldn't have put the "about" in there, though batting average is up there as well. BA, OBP, and OPS are three key indicators of an offense. I'm sure you prefer BABIP in the month of June, with runners on 2nd and 3rd, but that's okay. SLG and OBP are the two key (simple) measures. Both have problems that are opposite so when added (OPS) they are even better. The problem with OPS is that relative value of a single versus a walk is not constant. As SLG increases the value difference between a walk and a single decreases in OPS. It is obvious that the relative value between a single and a walk is constant without knowing other facts. wOBA is the best (non-simple) measure. That stat attempts to give each result a quantitative value based on actual baseball situations and results. wOBA values 0.72 Non intentional Walk 0.75 HBP 0.90 1B 0.92 RBOE (reaching base on error. This is usually ignored since data is not readily available) 1.24 2B 1.56 3B 1.95 HR The sum of these values are divided by Plate Appearances.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2012 19:00:00 GMT -8
True enough, though there's also strength of schedule thus far at home vs. the road and other factors. That's not the point. The point is the Padres hitting has been brutally awful. The original point of the discussion was needing impact bats, which NO fan can deny. No point really in breaking down which faction of the team sucks more, or sucks less. The TEAM sucks this year. But when you're hitting .226 as a team and have the least amount of homers in baseball, that's very bad. Last I checked, you have to play 81 games at home, and 81 away. It's the front offices job to put together a team that can produce in either capacity. The road stats aren't the true indicator, anymore than the home stats are. You have to look at both and make a determination, and use multiple factors. So if you were to figure how fast someone was and only knew they ran an 11 second 100 yard dash on flat ground and a 14 second 100 yard dash up a hill, would you average the two to know how fast they were? That's one of the dumbest questions ever asked, and does not correlate to anything I said. You're coming off as stupid. You're better than that.
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Jun 11, 2012 20:52:47 GMT -8
So if you were to figure how fast someone was and only knew they ran an 11 second 100 yard dash on flat ground and a 14 second 100 yard dash up a hill, would you average the two to know how fast they were? That's one of the dumbest questions ever asked, and does not correlate to anything I said. You're coming off as stupid. You're better than that. I don't think it's as dumb as you're making it out to be... Petco Park suppresses offense, so I would say that the construct: Running Uphill:Hitting at Petco Park is a reasonable analogy, as both will cause the measurement of the effectiveness of the effort to be worse than it would be in a neutral environment (which the averaging of multiple environments of the road stats is intended to approximate). Now, granted, the Padre offense is weak... even the road numbers put us at 10th out of the 16 NL teams, well into the lower half. The offense suppressing characteristics of Petco Park for half of the team's games will serve to make an already lower-tier offense look even worse than it admittedly is. The Padres are not a power team, and having the guy who was counted on to be the primary supplier of power out of the lineup until recently took a weakness and made it even weaker. Several factors: Not having Quentin in the lineup, Hundley and Maybin hitting well below expectations, Alonzo not getting his hitting mojo going until a month into the season, and the offensive black holes that Hudson and Bartlett became (Bartlett was one of the huge disappointments for me... he had been much better in the past that what he's shown here) turned an offense that going into the season figured to be middling, but adequate into an absolute train wreck. The Petco Park factor only magnifies the problem. Edited to correct spelling errors. PIMF.
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 12, 2012 8:52:34 GMT -8
That's one of the dumbest questions ever asked, and does not correlate to anything I said. You're coming off as stupid. You're better than that. I don't think it's as dumb as you're making it out to be... Petco Park suppresses offense, so I would say that the construct: Running Uphill:Hitting at Petco Park is a reasonable analogy, as both will cause the measurement of the effectiveness of the effort to be worse than it would be in a neutral environment (which the averaging of multiple environments of the road stats is intended to approximate). Now, granted, the Padre offense is weak... even the road numbers put us at 10th out of the 16 NL teams, well into the lower half. The offense suppressing characteristics of Petco Park for half of the team's games will serve to make an already lower-tier offense look even worse than it admittedly is. The Padres are not a power team, and having the guy who was counted on to be the primary supplier of power out of the lineup until recently took a weakness and made it even weaker. Several factors: Not having Quentin in the lineup, Hundley and Maybin hitting well below expectations, Alonzo not getting his hitting mojo going until a month into the season, and the offensive black holes that Hudson and Bartlett became (Bartlett was one of the huge disappointments for me... he had been much better in the past that what he's shown here) turned an offense that going into the season figured to be middling, but adequate into an absolute train wreck. The Petco Park factor only magnifies the problem. Edited to correct spelling errors. PIMF.And a good analogy is as difficult as...um...a...
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 15, 2012 8:34:05 GMT -8
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 15, 2012 10:42:45 GMT -8
may have? The article is basically saying what I have. The draft has many complications that weren't there a year ago. Decisions are now interrelated with the rest of the draft.
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