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Post by I Enjoy Aztecs Basketball on Jun 5, 2012 20:11:37 GMT -8
Well, clearly you do not agree with me so I would like to ask you what you would have done had you controlled the Padres draft? You say you would have liked to have had Appel taken. He would likely require much more than slot value (Krasovic reported he turned down 6 million from the Astros). So, what would you do with the other SIX players we drafted in the top 63? Only signed a few of them? Drafted signability guys for the rest of the draft? You have to take into account the cap limit. I would have drafted the best player available regardless of price. The cap limit is brand new this year. You cannot afford to miss with your first pick and we have missed badly over the years. It's embarrassing and im sick and tired of it. But why are you so sure that Appel was the best player? You just like what you've seen from him? Or because the Astros liked him?Because you saw how fast his fastball is? Because he wanted the most money? Keith Law had him ranked as the 6th overall prospect, right behind Fried at 5. He cited concerns about Appel's large workload. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2012 7:44:32 GMT -8
This is for you liveexployted. Dumb ass making me waste my time! 2011 Cory Spangenberg- He was the cheap choice here and signability was a huge factor here. 2011 Joe Ross- Our 2nd pick in the first round. Normal amount to sign 2010 Karsten Whitson- Didn't sign. Not the Padres fault cause he changed last minute. 2009 Donavan Tate- Good pick for the time and they pony upped and paid here. 2008 Allan Dykstra- Cheap choice 2007 Nick Schmidt- Cheap choice 2006 Matthew Antonelli- Cheap choice 2005 Cesar Carrillo- Average for his slot 2004 Matt Bush- Cheap choice 2003 Tim Stauffer- Cheap choice big time 2002 Khalil Greene- Average for his slot There is the last 10 years of first round picks and I proved my point. Joking of course, now you can STFU! I looked one of them up. Joe Ross signed for $2.75 million. Slot for the 24th pick is $1.125 million. You wrote, "Normal amount to sign", when he signed for 245% above slot. Why should we trust any of your other assessments? Where did you get your info? Did you just find the signings and add the info at the end off the top of your head? You also left off a non-first round pick last year, Austin Hedges. The Padres signed him for $3 million. Slot was $550,000. That was the 2nd highest non-first round pick in MLB history. If the Padres didn't sign their #1 pick last year they would get no compensation - so signability was important in that pick. They used the money they may have saved toward signing Hedges. That is very smart and a very good baseball move. I noticed you wrote Allan Dykstra was a cheap choice. Did you know that Allan was represented by Scott Boras? He was expected to be a very tough sign. The Padres signed him above slot at the last minute for $1.15M. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 6, 2012 8:12:52 GMT -8
Appel would have represented roughly 2/3 of our allowed limit to sign our first ten picks (9.9 million range)...and if you go over your cap, you forfeit next year's first round pick. Right decision was made. Dominant lefties are very, very hard to find. Appel turned down 6 million plus from the Astros. Very happy with the haul we got, if we sign them.
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2012 12:32:14 GMT -8
Appel would have represented roughly 2/3 of our allowed limit to sign our first ten picks (9.9 million range)...and if you go over your cap, you forfeit next year's first round pick. Right decision was made. Dominant lefties are very, very hard to find. Appel turned down 6 million plus from the Astros. Very happy with the haul we got, if we sign them. If we are able to draft someone who will sign at slot or below, that would leave room to sign a player later that may have slipped due to the new rules or his signability perception. The new rules make the draft much more complicated. It has become impossible to judge single moves in isolation. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2012 12:44:20 GMT -8
You also left off a non-first round pick last year, Austin Hedges. The Padres signed him for $3 million. Slot was $550,000. That was the 2nd highest non-first round pick in MLB history. If the Padres didn't sign their #1 pick last year they would get no compensation - so signability was important in that pick. They used the money they may have saved toward signing Hedges. That is very smart and a very good baseball move. ...he is playing at "A" Midwest league and won't turn 20 until the middle of August. He was voted last year as the best defensive catcher in the Padres organization. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2012 12:47:51 GMT -8
If we are able to draft someone who will sign at slot or below, that would leave room to sign a player later that may have slipped due to the new rules or his signability perception. The new rules make the draft much more complicated. It has become impossible to judge single moves in isolation. The new rules give teams a budget to sign players. If they don't sign a player, their budget reduces by the money they got to sign that player. Knowing a thing or two about game theory leads me to believe that smart teams will draft players in the 2nd or 3rd round, that are expected to be drafted and easily signed in the 30th round. When they sign that player well below slot, it gives them a slush fund to sign other players above slot. Either that or teams will never again sign above slot. If you sign a player above slot, you have to be assurred you can sign other players that much below slot. Otherwise you will lose a draft pick. Teams could forego signing their top draft picks to get extra picks the following year and then go crazy the next year and only give up one draft pick. This is what I mean. You can not, now, judge a single draft pick or signing without context. |
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Post by I Enjoy Aztecs Basketball on Jun 6, 2012 13:25:07 GMT -8
If we are able to draft someone who will sign at slot or below, that would leave room to sign a player later that may have slipped due to the new rules or his signability perception. The new rules make the draft much more complicated. It has become impossible to judge single moves in isolation. The new rules give teams a budget to sign players. If they don't sign a player, their budget reduces by the money they got to sign that player. Knowing a thing or two about game theory leads me to believe that smart teams will draft players in the 2nd or 3rd round, that are expected to be drafted and easily signed in the 30th round. When they sign that player well below slot, it gives them a slush fund to sign other players above slot. Either that or teams will never again sign above slot. If you sign a player above slot, you have to be assurred you can sign other players that much below slot. Otherwise you will lose a draft pick. Teams could forego signing their top draft picks to get extra picks the following year and then go crazy the next year and only give up one draft pick. This is what I mean. You can not, now, judge a single draft pick or signing without context. I don't want to speak for him, but I believe AztecTom's point was that he doesn't want to draft the signability guys, especially in the first round. He wants to draft the best player available every time up and worry about the financial side after the draft (better to get one Tony Gwynn than 10 Xavier Nady's). I personally think that is a simplistic mentality and would not yield fantastic results under the current CBA. Plus I am not ready to concede that Appel was the best player available and we took the Toyota over the Lexus based on sticker shock. A young lefty with nasty stuff and a high ceiling? The one complaint about our farm system is that, although it has plenty of major league players, it may be lacking in major league stars. Fried is the kind of player that with proper patience and tutelage, could be a major league star. I love the pick. |
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Jun 6, 2012 14:25:07 GMT -8
I don't want to speak for him, but I believe AztecTom's point was that he doesn't want to draft the signability guys, especially in the first round. He wants to draft the best player available every time up and worry about the financial side after the draft (better to get one Tony Gwynn than 10 Xavier Nady's). I personally think that is a simplistic mentality and would not yield fantastic results under the current CBA. Plus I am not ready to concede that Appel was the best player available and we took the Toyota over the Lexus based on sticker shock. A young lefty with nasty stuff and a high ceiling? The one complaint about our farm system is that, although it has plenty of major league players, it may be lacking in major league stars. Fried is the kind of player that with proper patience and tutelage, could be a major league star. I love the pick. Methinks that Mr. Nady was a poor choice to use as an example of a "cheap choice" player... For one thing, he was highly rated and expected to be a "can't miss" slugger. For another, he was a Scott Boras client and got every penny that Boras could milk for him. He even got a clause in his contract that he would go directly to the majors for his first game (which he did, getting a hit in the game he started). That started his "clock" on the 6 years that the Padres controlled him for his major league career, so not only did they pay the piper to sign him, they also forfeited several years of control before he became arbitration/FA eligible. The fact that he wound up as a journeyman player and not the superstar he was projected to be doesn't negate that the Padres went above and beyond the call in making an effort to sign him as a "tough sign" Boras client. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2012 15:11:34 GMT -8
You also left off a non-first round pick last year, Austin Hedges. The Padres signed him for $3 million. Slot was $550,000. That was the 2nd highest non-first round pick in MLB history. If the Padres didn't sign their #1 pick last year they would get no compensation - so signability was important in that pick. They used the money they may have saved toward signing Hedges. That is very smart and a very good baseball move. ...he is playing at "A" Midwest league and won't turn 20 until the middle of August. He was voted last year as the best defensive catcher in the Padres organization. Pretty stoked on this. If there's something the Padres are sorely lacking and need if they expect to contend in the future, it's a good defensive catcher. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2012 15:12:21 GMT -8
This is for you liveexployted. Dumb ass making me waste my time! 2011 Cory Spangenberg- He was the cheap choice here and signability was a huge factor here. 2011 Joe Ross- Our 2nd pick in the first round. Normal amount to sign 2010 Karsten Whitson- Didn't sign. Not the Padres fault cause he changed last minute. 2009 Donavan Tate- Good pick for the time and they pony upped and paid here. 2008 Allan Dykstra- Cheap choice 2007 Nick Schmidt- Cheap choice 2006 Matthew Antonelli- Cheap choice 2005 Cesar Carrillo- Average for his slot 2004 Matt Bush- Cheap choice 2003 Tim Stauffer- Cheap choice big time 2002 Khalil Greene- Average for his slot There is the last 10 years of first round picks and I proved my point. Joking of course, now you can STFU! I looked one of them up. Joe Ross signed for $2.75 million. Slot for the 24th pick is $1.125 million. You wrote, "Normal amount to sign", when he signed for 245% above slot. Why should we trust any of your other assessments? Where did you get your info? Did you just find the signings and add the info at the end off the top of your head? You also left off a non-first round pick last year, Austin Hedges. The Padres signed him for $3 million. Slot was $550,000. That was the 2nd highest non-first round pick in MLB history. If the Padres didn't sign their #1 pick last year they would get no compensation - so signability was important in that pick. They used the money they may have saved toward signing Hedges. That is very smart and a very good baseball move. I noticed you wrote Allan Dykstra was a cheap choice. Did you know that Allan was represented by Scott Boras? He was expected to be a very tough sign. The Padres signed him above slot at the last minute for $1.15M. No offense Tom, but Bill just dropped you with a liver shot on the ropes. You're down on all scorecards too. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2012 15:14:45 GMT -8
I don't want to speak for him, but I believe AztecTom's point was that he doesn't want to draft the signability guys, especially in the first round. He wants to draft the best player available every time up and worry about the financial side after the draft (better to get one Tony Gwynn than 10 Xavier Nady's). I personally think that is a simplistic mentality and would not yield fantastic results under the current CBA. Plus I am not ready to concede that Appel was the best player available and we took the Toyota over the Lexus based on sticker shock. A young lefty with nasty stuff and a high ceiling? The one complaint about our farm system is that, although it has plenty of major league players, it may be lacking in major league stars. Fried is the kind of player that with proper patience and tutelage, could be a major league star. I love the pick. Methinks that Mr. Nady was a poor choice to use as an example of a "cheap choice" player... For one thing, he was highly rated and expected to be a "can't miss" slugger. For another, he was a Scott Boras client and got every penny that Boras could milk for him. He even got a clause in his contract that he would go directly to the majors for his first game (which he did, getting a hit in the game he started). That started his "clock" on the 6 years that the Padres controlled him for his major league career, so not only did they pay the piper to sign him, they also forfeited several years of control before he became arbitration/FA eligible. The fact that he wound up as a journeyman player and not the superstar he was projected to be doesn't negate that the Padres went above and beyond the call in making an effort to sign him as a "tough sign" Boras client. Gwynn is a bad example too since he was a 7th round pick. He is one of those less than top 40 type player who rocked when he got to the majors. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2012 15:15:55 GMT -8
I have read alot of good scouting reports on Fried. It's easy to think he is five or six years away, but if he's really good, and stays healthy...who is to say he is not in San Diego when is 20 or 21? Kershaw was. Now, don't get me wrong....I realize Kershaw is a phenomenal talent who doesn't come around every draft. But hey, alot of the reports compare Fried to Kershaw as far as their makeup. We'll see.
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Post by I Enjoy Aztecs Basketball on Jun 6, 2012 16:01:18 GMT -8
Methinks that Mr. Nady was a poor choice to use as an example of a "cheap choice" player... For one thing, he was highly rated and expected to be a "can't miss" slugger. For another, he was a Scott Boras client and got every penny that Boras could milk for him. He even got a clause in his contract that he would go directly to the majors for his first game (which he did, getting a hit in the game he started). That started his "clock" on the 6 years that the Padres controlled him for his major league career, so not only did they pay the piper to sign him, they also forfeited several years of control before he became arbitration/FA eligible. The fact that he wound up as a journeyman player and not the superstar he was projected to be doesn't negate that the Padres went above and beyond the call in making an effort to sign him as a "tough sign" Boras client. Gwynn is a bad example too since he was a 7th round pick. He is one of those less than top 40 type player who rocked when he got to the majors. Haha, whoa. I wasn't giving examples of players at the time they were drafted. I was talking about the caliber of player once they reached the majors. Gwynn=Hall of Famer, Xavier=Major league player, but not an All Star. Sorry for the confusion. Ie "I'd rather have 1 hall of fame quality player than 10 serviceable major leaguers." Semantics either way though, the debate at hand was "Does the Padres history of spending in the draft portent to cheap spending and a mismanaged draft in the present?" And based on the information available, it seems that the Padres had a good draft and one we should be excited about. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2012 16:25:19 GMT -8
Gwynn is a bad example too since he was a 7th round pick. He is one of those less than top 40 type player who rocked when he got to the majors. Haha, whoa. I wasn't giving examples of players at the time they were drafted. I was talking about the caliber of player once they reached the majors. Gwynn=Hall of Famer, Xavier=Major league player, but not an All Star. Sorry for the confusion. Ie "I'd rather have 1 hall of fame quality player than 10 serviceable major leaguers." Semantics either way though, the debate at hand was "Does the Padres history of spending in the draft portent to cheap spending and a mismanaged draft in the present?" And based on the information available, it seems that the Padres had a good draft and one we should be excited about. The Padres had a great draft last year and spent a ton of extra money to get players well above the level expected by their draft picks. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 7, 2012 7:40:24 GMT -8
The Padres had a great draft last year and spent a ton of extra money to get players well above the level expected by their draft picks. They drafted a bunch of Tim Flannerys last year (unless you can name me even one position player who projects to be an all star). - 19 in "A". Cory Spangenberg - 21 in "A+" Jace Peterson - 22 in "A" |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 7, 2012 10:50:14 GMT -8
These guys project to be all stars? Hedges and Spangenberg can't hit the ball out of the infield. The other guy I don't know. So Hedges has 5 inside the infield home runs this year? |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 7, 2012 18:06:19 GMT -8
So Hedges has 5 inside the infield home runs this year? I have no idea how many ITP homers he has this year. All I know is that most of the scouting reports said that he's basically ready to catch at the big league level but that he'll probably never hit in the majors. He has 5 homers and they all left the yard. I made a joke about your saying he can't get the ball out of the infield. Below is a scouting report on Hedges with some text highlighted: SCOUTING PROFILE: The 2011 high-school class has plenty of outstanding defensive prospects, including shortstops like Francisco Lindor (Florida), Julius Gaines (Georgia) and Trevor Story (Texas), and outfielders like Bubba Starling (Kansas) and Tanner English (South Carolina). But the one prospect that most stands out on that side of the ball is Hedges, who was named the 2010 Rawlings National Defensive Player of the Year as a junior. While Southern California scouts have been debating all spring if they may not have a true first-round, high-school prospect in their mix for the first time in draft history, Hedges has emerged as the leading candidate to prevent that distinction from occurring. His advanced skills at the most-demanding of defensive positions could be the difference-maker. He excels in all areas of catching, and plays the position with high energy. Hedges has a shortstop’s build with wide shoulders and slender, quick hips, and plays his position a lot like a highly-athletic shortstop would play his. He is exceptionally light on his feet with cat-like quickness in shifting and blocking. He also receives the ball cleanly with soft hands and has a deliberate, compact release on his throws to go with above-average raw arm strength. At Perfect Game’s National Showcase last summer, Hedges had 1.75 pop times in drills, 1.85 between innings and 1.90 in games with regularity. He has shown those same times with regularity this spring. Hedges is so polished defensively that he may be the best catcher in this year’s draft, more-experienced college catchers included. But there is also a strong chance that he may not be the first catcher drafted. That distinction could go to New Mexico’s Blake Swihart, who is the best offensive catcher in the country and could play a number of other positions. While his defense overshadows his offense, Hedges should still hit well enough in the future to be an everyday big-league catcher. He has a simple righthanded swing with good flow to contact that he keeps short and direct to the ball. He is primarily a line-drive hitter with some gap power, and should continue to drive balls with more regularity as he gets stronger. As a senior for Junipero Serra High, he hit a respectable .366-4-16 with 11 doubles. A concern for scouts is Hedges’ signability. He is a 4.0-plus student and his commitment to UCLA is perceived as being very strong. Should Hedges skip through the draft and attend UCLA, he most likely would miss catching top pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer, which would have been a treat to see, but UCLA has plenty of other talented young arms for Hedges to work with in the future. Projected Draft Position: Late First Round/Sandwich Notice the "primarily a line-drive hitter". That is what the Padres need to overcome Petco Park. We need line-drive hitters. |
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Post by insider on Jun 8, 2012 0:01:52 GMT -8
With the new rules the Padres decision on passing up Appel wasn't a cheap one, it was about value. Padres had a draft pool of almost 10 million $ they can spend, not counting the 100K and under signings past round 10. With passing up Appel for Fried they were able to draft 2 high upside HS pitchers that were first round talents but werent drafted in first round because of their strong commitments, they will be able to sign both but it will take over slot commitments this wouldn't have been possible if you sign appel. Padres have maybe the worst pitching staff in the majors it needs major help. But you always draft BPA early in the draft anyways. Any position player (like courtney hawkins or gavin cecchini) would have been a reach at 7.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 8, 2012 9:18:02 GMT -8
Keith Law had a chat a few weeks ago where he commented on Hedges, something to the effect of "Defense is there, the bat is better than people think"....I've read more than one scouting report that said if he could just be average offensively, he's an All-Star caliber catcher. The defense is that good.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2012 10:25:42 GMT -8
Keith Law had a chat a few weeks ago where he commented on Hedges, something to the effect of "Defense is there, the bat is better than people think"....I've read more than one scouting report that said if he could just be average offensively, he's an All-Star caliber catcher. The defense is that good. Ryan, this team needs impact bats in the worst way. Defensive catchers who can't hit well (see: Lou Marson, Jeff Mathis, etc) make good BACKUPS. |
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