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Post by Gundo on Sept 16, 2024 10:12:43 GMT -8
Future possible MWC: Nevada Utah State Wyoming Hawaii San Jose State New Mexico New Mexico State UTEP Montana Montana State North Dakota State UC Davis For the MWC expansion, I'm arriving at similar additions, but let's lay the groundwork first. San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Boise State move to the PAC. UNLV successfully separates from Nevada, with the Regents approving their move to the PAC as well. Air Force joins Army and Navy in the AAC, forming a group of academy schools. With a budget exceeding $125 million, the MWC can now expand by adding 6 to 8 schools. The first moves include bringing in UTEP and New Mexico State from CUSA. They then elevate 2-4 FCS schools—South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Montana, and Montana State. The MWC also looks toward California, considering UC Davis or Sacramento State, and finishes by adding a Texas school, like Tarleton State, to round out the expansion. The MWC pays the FCS to FBS fees, and then tries to negotiate a new media rights deal, however, its equitable to CUSA revenues. |
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Post by panammaniac on Sept 16, 2024 10:35:10 GMT -8
Future possible MWC: Nevada Utah State Wyoming Hawaii San Jose State New Mexico New Mexico State UTEP Montana Montana State North Dakota State UC Davis For the MWC expansion, I'm arriving at similar additions, but let's lay the groundwork first. San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Boise State move to the PAC. UNLV successfully separates from Nevada, with the Regents approving their move to the PAC as well. Air Force joins Army and Navy in the AAC, forming a group of academy schools. With a budget exceeding $125 million, the MWC can now expand by adding 6 to 8 schools. The first moves include bringing in UTEP and New Mexico State from CUSA. They then elevate 2-4 FCS schools—South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Montana, and Montana State. The MWC also looks toward California, considering UC Davis or Sacramento State, and finishes by adding a Texas school, like Tarleton State, to round out the expansion. The MWC pays the FCS to FBS fees, and then tries to negotiate a new media rights deal, however, its equitable to CUSA revenues. There's a few obvious problems with this: 1. NMSU and UTEP won't make the move unless it's a very clear step up from CUSA. Both are happy in CUSA as it is a conference made up of peer schools in terms of athletic spending. All of the CUSA schools except for Liberty have athletic budgets in the mid-$20 million range. It's as level of a playing field as you'll find in college athletics. NMSU went in after being independent for 10 years and darn near won the conference in year 1. Even the "bottom tier" MWC schools outspend us by about $10 million, so we'd go from being on even keel with everyone to being bottom rung again and unable to compete, and UTEP would be in the same boat. That being said, the CUSA media deal pays a little over $800k per school. The current MWC deal pays 4x that, but it is also losing its top four football schools and two of its largest media markets. What would a hypothetical new deal pay? I don't think anybody has any idea at this point. I'm going to venture to guess it will be substantially less than $3 million, but it would have to be substantially more than CUSA's $800k to make any sense at all for UTEP and NMSU to jump. If the new MWC media deal is equitable to the CUSA deal, what's the motivation for NMSU and UTEP to jump? They'd be giving up the long term stability and balanced competitiveness of CUSA for an inherently unstable MWC, with several schools that don't historically get along well with either. 2. UNM will lobby heavily to keep NMSU out of the conference. Based on history, they'll be two faced about it - publicly commenting about how they'd love to have us in the MWC and then voting no in the closed door meetings. You have to understand how much NMSU and UNM flat out hate each other. A lot of politics at play there - UNM always gets the lion's share of the state's funding despite NMSU having a long track record of accomplishing a lot more with a lot less. UNM always does whatever they can to try to suppress NMSU, and they have a lot more population up there so it's a lot easier for them to crawl up the legislator's butts. 3. The Montanas and Dakotas add nothing to the conference's coffers. Nobody lives there, so they won't do anything at all to move the needle towards a better TV deal. 4. I could see Cal Davis being a solid addition - IF they really want to move up. That's a financially expensive proposition. It costs $5 million off the bat now to move up to FCS, and then everything else is more expensive. You need more scholarships, more NIL money, FBS level coaches instead of FCS (and more of them), have to improve your facilities to FBS level, etc. And from what I've read, it's Sac State that is really feeling motivated to move up, not UC Davis. I could see them going as a pair, but the question remains - do they really move the needle in terms of media market? 5. There's a pretty substantial lack of trust between NMSU and our former WAC and Big West conference mates (Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State). All three of those stabbed us in the back more than once. NMSU fans and alumni really want nothing to do with any of them. 6. Montana is politically tied to Montana State. You can't take one without the other, and I'm not sure the conference wants both. I'm not sure if the same holds true for the Dakotas or not. Outside of these things, I think that would be a pretty solid regional G5 conference that makes a lot of sense. But there's an awful lot to be overcome if that is going to happen. My guess is that the UNM's and Wyoming's of the world are going to have to figure out a way to reduce their athletics spending and live within their new means, very much like WSU and OSU have to do that. |
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Post by azson on Sept 16, 2024 11:23:58 GMT -8
Banner news for WSU and OSU prompts a question: What was Gloria Nevarez thinking?
247sports.com/college/washington-state/article/banner-news-for-wsu-and-osu-prompts-a-question-what-was-gloria-nevarez-thinking-236121301/ (I've sited the source, and included the link for your review, I don't agree with all that is written, but its from "the Cougs/Beavs" POV)IF THIS WERE A POKER GAME, Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez overplayed her hand in an epic way.
The Pac-12 made it official this morning it has secured deal with San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State and Colorado State to join the conference in 2026. That is catastrophic news for the Mountain West, because those schools are the "Big Four" in that conference.
And it serves as ignominious testament that Nevarez squandered a golden opportunity that landed on her doorstep out of the blue a year ago.
Nevarez decided to play hardball with Washington State and Oregon State after the Pac-12 imploded rather than welcome and woo them to the Mountain West like 4-star prospects.
Two long-time power conference schools with notable TV audiences were caught in an untenable situation and her conference stood as an island in the storm. But rather than work with the two schools on a mutually beneficial long-term alliance, she opted to extort them.
WSU and OSUs are paying roughly $1 million a game this season to be part of the Mountain West. And the number for next season would have been dramatically higher, perhaps even a doubling, per sources, and that is why scheduling talks broke off for 2025.
If you wonder why the Cougs and Beavs are playing basketball this season as adjunct members of the WCC, it's because Nevarez, hellbent on taking advantage of WSU and OSU, played hardball while WCC commissioner Stu Jackson wrapped the Cougs and Beavs in a warm embrace at a reasonable price.
Trying to figure out Nevarez's end game in all this yields but a one-word conclusion: puzzling. By wooing the Cougs and Beavs she could have landed two proven names with some media rights earnings heft.
The relationship between the CW Network and the two Pac-12 schools is off to a grand start this season. That, coupled with sympathetic ears across the country willing to listen to scheduling ideas, has put the Cougs and Beavs in position to play next football season as independents — an idea once considered impossible. Indeed, one would have to presume the CW and Pac-12 are well down the road on the framework for a broadcasting deal for a rebuilt conference.
The "Big Four" of the Mountain West saw the Cougs and Beavs as lead dogs pulling a sled toward to greater media right revenue under a brand name — the Pac-12 — every sports fan in America recognizes instantly. Jon Wilner of the Mercury News opines that an $11 million annual media rights payout per school is the ballpark for the six teams n0w in the Pac-12. That's far below the Power 4 but roughly double the Mountain West's current payout per school.
The four no doubt weren't optimistic about the Mountain West's next media rights contract and rightly viewed the Cougs and Beavs as the ticket to a brighter tomorrow unencumbered by Hawaii, New Mexico and other Mountain West schools with small budgets.
What don't you agree with? All seems pretty on point to me. |
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Post by Gundo on Sept 16, 2024 11:26:10 GMT -8
For the MWC expansion, I'm arriving at similar additions, but let's lay the groundwork first. San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Boise State move to the PAC. UNLV successfully separates from Nevada, with the Regents approving their move to the PAC as well. Air Force joins Army and Navy in the AAC, forming a group of academy schools. With a budget exceeding $125 million, the MWC can now expand by adding 6 to 8 schools. The first moves include bringing in UTEP and New Mexico State from CUSA. They then elevate 2-4 FCS schools—South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Montana, and Montana State. The MWC also looks toward California, considering UC Davis or Sacramento State, and finishes by adding a Texas school, like Tarleton State, to round out the expansion. The MWC pays the FCS to FBS fees, and then tries to negotiate a new media rights deal, however, its equitable to CUSA revenues. There's a few obvious problems with this: 1. NMSU and UTEP won't make the move unless it's a very clear step up from CUSA. Both are happy in CUSA as it is a conference made up of peer schools in terms of athletic spending. All of the CUSA schools except for Liberty have athletic budgets in the mid-$20 million range. It's as level of a playing field as you'll find in college athletics. NMSU went in after being independent for 10 years and darn near won the conference in year 1. Even the "bottom tier" MWC schools outspend us by about $10 million, so we'd go from being on even keel with everyone to being bottom rung again and unable to compete, and UTEP would be in the same boat. That being said, the CUSA media deal pays a little over $800k per school. The current MWC deal pays 4x that, but it is also losing its top four football schools and two of its largest media markets. What would a hypothetical new deal pay? I don't think anybody has any idea at this point. I'm going to venture to guess it will be substantially less than $3 million, but it would have to be substantially more than CUSA's $800k to make any sense at all for UTEP and NMSU to jump. If the new MWC media deal is equitable to the CUSA deal, what's the motivation for NMSU and UTEP to jump? They'd be giving up the long term stability and balanced competitiveness of CUSA for an inherently unstable MWC, with several schools that don't historically get along well with either. 2. UNM will lobby heavily to keep NMSU out of the conference. Based on history, they'll be two faced about it - publicly commenting about how they'd love to have us in the MWC and then voting no in the closed door meetings. You have to understand how much NMSU and UNM flat out hate each other. A lot of politics at play there - UNM always gets the lion's share of the state's funding despite NMSU having a long track record of accomplishing a lot more with a lot less. UNM always does whatever they can to try to suppress NMSU, and they have a lot more population up there so it's a lot easier for them to crawl up the legislator's butts. 3. The Montanas and Dakotas add nothing to the conference's coffers. Nobody lives there, so they won't do anything at all to move the needle towards a better TV deal. 4. I could see Cal Davis being a solid addition - IF they really want to move up. That's a financially expensive proposition. It costs $5 million off the bat now to move up to FCS, and then everything else is more expensive. You need more scholarships, more NIL money, FBS level coaches instead of FCS (and more of them), have to improve your facilities to FBS level, etc. And from what I've read, it's Sac State that is really feeling motivated to move up, not UC Davis. I could see them going as a pair, but the question remains - do they really move the needle in terms of media market? 5. There's a pretty substantial lack of trust between NMSU and our former WAC and Big West conference mates (Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State). All three of those stabbed us in the back more than once. NMSU fans and alumni really want nothing to do with any of them. 6. Montana is politically tied to Montana State. You can't take one without the other, and I'm not sure the conference wants both. I'm not sure if the same holds true for the Dakotas or not. Outside of these things, I think that would be a pretty solid regional G5 conference that makes a lot of sense. But there's an awful lot to be overcome if that is going to happen. My guess is that the UNM's and Wyoming's of the world are going to have to figure out a way to reduce their athletics spending and live within their new means, very much like WSU and OSU have to do that. Another possible outcome is the collapse of the MWC: UNLV moves to the PAC, Air Force joins the AAC alongside Army and Navy, Hawaii goes independent, and the remaining schools would be divided between the AAC, CUSA, or FCS leagues. Linear broadcast revenues would shrink, as major media companies like FOX, ESPN, and CBS focus most of their spending on the P4/P5 conferences. Meanwhile, second and third-tier games could be picked up by networks like Scripps, TNT Sports, and the CW. This widening gap between the 'haves' and 'have-nots' would severely limit growth opportunities in the FBS landscape—a scenario that seems increasingly plausible, and driven by consolidated media dollars. |
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Post by panammaniac on Sept 16, 2024 11:37:25 GMT -8
There's a few obvious problems with this: 1. NMSU and UTEP won't make the move unless it's a very clear step up from CUSA. Both are happy in CUSA as it is a conference made up of peer schools in terms of athletic spending. All of the CUSA schools except for Liberty have athletic budgets in the mid-$20 million range. It's as level of a playing field as you'll find in college athletics. NMSU went in after being independent for 10 years and darn near won the conference in year 1. Even the "bottom tier" MWC schools outspend us by about $10 million, so we'd go from being on even keel with everyone to being bottom rung again and unable to compete, and UTEP would be in the same boat. That being said, the CUSA media deal pays a little over $800k per school. The current MWC deal pays 4x that, but it is also losing its top four football schools and two of its largest media markets. What would a hypothetical new deal pay? I don't think anybody has any idea at this point. I'm going to venture to guess it will be substantially less than $3 million, but it would have to be substantially more than CUSA's $800k to make any sense at all for UTEP and NMSU to jump. If the new MWC media deal is equitable to the CUSA deal, what's the motivation for NMSU and UTEP to jump? They'd be giving up the long term stability and balanced competitiveness of CUSA for an inherently unstable MWC, with several schools that don't historically get along well with either. 2. UNM will lobby heavily to keep NMSU out of the conference. Based on history, they'll be two faced about it - publicly commenting about how they'd love to have us in the MWC and then voting no in the closed door meetings. You have to understand how much NMSU and UNM flat out hate each other. A lot of politics at play there - UNM always gets the lion's share of the state's funding despite NMSU having a long track record of accomplishing a lot more with a lot less. UNM always does whatever they can to try to suppress NMSU, and they have a lot more population up there so it's a lot easier for them to crawl up the legislator's butts. 3. The Montanas and Dakotas add nothing to the conference's coffers. Nobody lives there, so they won't do anything at all to move the needle towards a better TV deal. 4. I could see Cal Davis being a solid addition - IF they really want to move up. That's a financially expensive proposition. It costs $5 million off the bat now to move up to FCS, and then everything else is more expensive. You need more scholarships, more NIL money, FBS level coaches instead of FCS (and more of them), have to improve your facilities to FBS level, etc. And from what I've read, it's Sac State that is really feeling motivated to move up, not UC Davis. I could see them going as a pair, but the question remains - do they really move the needle in terms of media market? 5. There's a pretty substantial lack of trust between NMSU and our former WAC and Big West conference mates (Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State). All three of those stabbed us in the back more than once. NMSU fans and alumni really want nothing to do with any of them. 6. Montana is politically tied to Montana State. You can't take one without the other, and I'm not sure the conference wants both. I'm not sure if the same holds true for the Dakotas or not. Outside of these things, I think that would be a pretty solid regional G5 conference that makes a lot of sense. But there's an awful lot to be overcome if that is going to happen. My guess is that the UNM's and Wyoming's of the world are going to have to figure out a way to reduce their athletics spending and live within their new means, very much like WSU and OSU have to do that. Another option is that the MWC collapses: UNLV to the PAC, Air Force to the AAC (w/Army/Navy), Hawaii goes independent, and the remaining schools are split between AAC, CUSA and/or FCS leagues. Linear broadcast revenues are reduced as FOX, ESPN, CBS spending the majority of media dollars against the P4/P5; with Scripps, TNT Sports and the CW picking up second and third tier schedules, this widens the gap between the haves and have nots, and leaves little opportunity for growth in the FBS world. UNM might be able to get into the AAC, especially if the AAC loses a few schools to the PAC. Albuquerque is a large enough metro area and UNM has enough long term basketball success that they may get a look. They’ll pull every last straw to not have to co-habitate with NMSU. I can tell you that much with 100% certainty. The MWC might be able to backfill with FCS moveups, but it they do it’s strictly for survival, and the conference basically becomes a CUSA equivalent. Hawaii wouldn’t fare well as an independent. Who would risk a trip over to the islands mid-season for a potential non-conference loss? I think they’d have trouble putting a full home schedule together. I have difficulty seeing any of them drop to FCS or drop football. If any, I would vote on SJSU. They’ve had some football success but they’re pretty much a non-contributor despite residing in a huge media market. Their athletics facilities are horrendously bad. Some have pointed out that they wouldn’t drop football. They just invested millions in their horrendously awful rustbucket of a football stadium. Fair point, but if you recall, CSUF invested millions to build a brand new football stadium on their campus, then dropped football before they ever played a game in it. There’s precedent for the CSU regents to make a move like that. I wouldn’t say they’re on safe turf by any means. The ones I feel bad for are Nevada, Wyoming, and Utah State. Those three are most likely the ones left holding the bag if the MWC falls apart. Maybe CUSA would take them, but it also means more mouths to feed in a conference that already has 12 schools and doesn’t pay out much. Tough times ahead and no crystal ball can see the end game right now. |
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Post by Gundo on Sept 16, 2024 11:59:48 GMT -8
Another option is that the MWC collapses: UNLV to the PAC, Air Force to the AAC (w/Army/Navy), Hawaii goes independent, and the remaining schools are split between AAC, CUSA and/or FCS leagues. Linear broadcast revenues are reduced as FOX, ESPN, CBS spending the majority of media dollars against the P4/P5; with Scripps, TNT Sports and the CW picking up second and third tier schedules, this widens the gap between the haves and have nots, and leaves little opportunity for growth in the FBS world. UNM might be able to get into the AAC, especially if the AAC loses a few schools to the PAC. Albuquerque is a large enough metro area and UNM has enough long term basketball success that they may get a look. They’ll pull every last straw to not have to co-habitate with NMSU. I can tell you that much with 100% certainty. The MWC might be able to backfill with FCS moveups, but it they do it’s strictly for survival, and the conference basically becomes a CUSA equivalent. Hawaii wouldn’t fare well as an independent. Who would risk a trip over to the islands mid-season for a potential non-conference loss? I think they’d have trouble putting a full home schedule together. I have difficulty seeing any of them drop to FCS or drop football. If any, I would vote on SJSU. They’ve had some football success but they’re pretty much a non-contributor despite residing in a huge media market. Their athletics facilities are horrendously bad. Some have pointed out that they wouldn’t drop football. They just invested millions in their horrendously awful rustbucket of a football stadium. Fair point, but if you recall, CSUF invested millions to build a brand new football stadium on their campus, then dropped football before they ever played a game in it. There’s precedent for the CSU regents to make a move like that. I wouldn’t say they’re on safe turf by any means. The ones I feel bad for are Nevada, Wyoming, and Utah State. Those three are most likely the ones left holding the bag if the MWC falls apart. Maybe CUSA would take them, but it also means more mouths to feed in a conference that already has 12 schools and doesn’t pay out much. Tough times ahead and no crystal ball can see the end game right now. If the MWC can retain six or seven schools, they’d only need to add two or three more, so the conference isn’t dead yet. A possible strategy could involve bringing in UTEP, a California school, and a top FCS program to reach nine teams, which would stabilize scheduling and keep them in contention for the College Football Playoff (CFP). However, their media rights deal with CBS and Fox, which was worth $270 million and signed in 2020, expires after the 2025-2026 season. This deal has provided each school with about $3-4 million annually, but the real issue is TV revenue. With the PAC now poaching top brands and teams, they have a stronger draw for West Coast prime-time games, like Washington State vs. Boise State or San Diego State vs. Oregon State, compared to Wyoming vs. Montana State or New Mexico vs. San Jose State. On the bright side, the MWC has added TNT Sports to its broadcast lineup, while the PAC has secured the CW for the next two years, offering more linear options. However, don’t count out tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Hulu, which may soon enter the sports broadcasting space and offer new opportunities for media rights. To remain viable, the MWC will need to be proactive in securing new schools that bring media market value and in negotiating a media deal that can sustain the conference financially. Strengthening its digital presence and creating appealing matchups will be key to its future success. The exit and poaching fees can only last for so long. The MWC still has a chance to survive, but its next moves—both in team additions and media partnerships—will be crucial for its long-term relevance, otherwise bye-bye MW. |
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Post by aztecfred on Sept 16, 2024 12:18:42 GMT -8
Not sure why I read any of this? Guess l thought there may be some something Aztec related. The MWC is dead to me and I don't care what happens them.
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Post by Cwag on Sept 16, 2024 12:23:59 GMT -8
Not sure why I read any of this? Guess l thought there may be some something Aztec related. The MWC is dead to me and I don't care what happens them. Did someone make you read this? The title seems pretty clear to me what it's all about. It is Aztec related as what happens to the MWC could affect our exit fees and the next media deal for the PAC12 |
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Post by panammaniac on Sept 16, 2024 12:33:13 GMT -8
UNM might be able to get into the AAC, especially if the AAC loses a few schools to the PAC. Albuquerque is a large enough metro area and UNM has enough long term basketball success that they may get a look. They’ll pull every last straw to not have to co-habitate with NMSU. I can tell you that much with 100% certainty. The MWC might be able to backfill with FCS moveups, but it they do it’s strictly for survival, and the conference basically becomes a CUSA equivalent. Hawaii wouldn’t fare well as an independent. Who would risk a trip over to the islands mid-season for a potential non-conference loss? I think they’d have trouble putting a full home schedule together. I have difficulty seeing any of them drop to FCS or drop football. If any, I would vote on SJSU. They’ve had some football success but they’re pretty much a non-contributor despite residing in a huge media market. Their athletics facilities are horrendously bad. Some have pointed out that they wouldn’t drop football. They just invested millions in their horrendously awful rustbucket of a football stadium. Fair point, but if you recall, CSUF invested millions to build a brand new football stadium on their campus, then dropped football before they ever played a game in it. There’s precedent for the CSU regents to make a move like that. I wouldn’t say they’re on safe turf by any means. The ones I feel bad for are Nevada, Wyoming, and Utah State. Those three are most likely the ones left holding the bag if the MWC falls apart. Maybe CUSA would take them, but it also means more mouths to feed in a conference that already has 12 schools and doesn’t pay out much. Tough times ahead and no crystal ball can see the end game right now. If the MWC can retain six or seven schools, they’d only need to add two or three more, so the conference isn’t dead yet. A possible strategy could involve bringing in UTEP, a California school, and a top FCS program to reach nine teams, which would stabilize scheduling and keep them in contention for the College Football Playoff (CFP). However, their media rights deal with CBS and Fox, which was worth $270 million and signed in 2020, expires after the 2025-2026 season. This deal has provided each school with about $3-4 million annually, but the real issue is TV revenue. With the PAC now poaching top brands and teams, they have a stronger draw for West Coast prime-time games, like Washington State vs. Boise State or San Diego State vs. Oregon State, compared to Wyoming vs. Montana State or New Mexico vs. San Jose State. On the bright side, the MWC has added TNT Sports to its broadcast lineup, while the PAC has secured the CW for the next two years, offering more linear options. However, don’t count out tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Hulu, which may soon enter the sports broadcasting space and offer new opportunities for media rights. To remain viable, the MWC will need to be proactive in securing new schools that bring media market value and in negotiating a media deal that can sustain the conference financially. Strengthening its digital presence and creating appealing matchups will be key to its future success. The exit and poaching fees can only last for so long. The MWC still has a chance to survive, but its next moves—both in team additions and media partnerships—will be crucial for its long-term relevance, otherwise bye-bye MW. I agree - the MWC can and I'm predicting will survive, but a lot of schools are going to be crying in their beer because they're likely to survive with some FCS move-ups and a lot less TV money than they're accustomed to getting. A lot of people are saying slam dunk, add NMSU and UTEP, but I'm not convinced that either will go that easily or that it would benefit either of them to do so. We shall see. Everyone is playing it coy right now. NMSU's AD basically says meh, if they call I'll return their voicemail, but we're happy where we are. I'm sure a lot more discussions are happening behind the scenes. |
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Post by Gundo on Sept 16, 2024 12:56:28 GMT -8
If the MWC can retain six or seven schools, they’d only need to add two or three more, so the conference isn’t dead yet. A possible strategy could involve bringing in UTEP, a California school, and a top FCS program to reach nine teams, which would stabilize scheduling and keep them in contention for the College Football Playoff (CFP). However, their media rights deal with CBS and Fox, which was worth $270 million and signed in 2020, expires after the 2025-2026 season. This deal has provided each school with about $3-4 million annually, but the real issue is TV revenue. With the PAC now poaching top brands and teams, they have a stronger draw for West Coast prime-time games, like Washington State vs. Boise State or San Diego State vs. Oregon State, compared to Wyoming vs. Montana State or New Mexico vs. San Jose State. On the bright side, the MWC has added TNT Sports to its broadcast lineup, while the PAC has secured the CW for the next two years, offering more linear options. However, don’t count out tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Hulu, which may soon enter the sports broadcasting space and offer new opportunities for media rights. To remain viable, the MWC will need to be proactive in securing new schools that bring media market value and in negotiating a media deal that can sustain the conference financially. Strengthening its digital presence and creating appealing matchups will be key to its future success. The exit and poaching fees can only last for so long. The MWC still has a chance to survive, but its next moves—both in team additions and media partnerships—will be crucial for its long-term relevance, otherwise bye-bye MW. I agree - the MWC can and I'm predicting will survive, but a lot of schools are going to be crying in their beer because they're likely to survive with some FCS move-ups and a lot less TV money than they're accustomed to getting. A lot of people are saying slam dunk, add NMSU and UTEP, but I'm not convinced that either will go that easily or that it would benefit either of them to do so. We shall see. Everyone is playing it coy right now. NMSU's AD basically says meh, if they call I'll return their voicemail, but we're happy where we are. I'm sure a lot more discussions are happening behind the scenes. I understand the tensions between UNM and NMSU, but for the Mountain West Conference’s stability, New Mexico might need to reconsider its stance. NMSU has seen recent success in football, and both NMSU and UTEP are often competitive in men’s basketball. There are certainly plenty of factors at play, and the rivalry between the schools is well-known, but ultimately, they could benefit from aligning rather than staying divided. On the other hand, with Air Force getting interest from the AAC and rumors swirling about potential shifts, UNM might also be contemplating a move. Only time will tell. |
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Post by panammaniac on Sept 16, 2024 13:13:54 GMT -8
I agree - the MWC can and I'm predicting will survive, but a lot of schools are going to be crying in their beer because they're likely to survive with some FCS move-ups and a lot less TV money than they're accustomed to getting. A lot of people are saying slam dunk, add NMSU and UTEP, but I'm not convinced that either will go that easily or that it would benefit either of them to do so. We shall see. Everyone is playing it coy right now. NMSU's AD basically says meh, if they call I'll return their voicemail, but we're happy where we are. I'm sure a lot more discussions are happening behind the scenes. I understand the tensions between UNM and NMSU, but for the Mountain West Conference’s stability, New Mexico might need to reconsider its stance. NMSU has seen recent success in football, and both NMSU and UTEP are often competitive in men’s basketball. There are certainly plenty of factors at play, and the rivalry between the schools is well-known, but ultimately, they could benefit from aligning rather than staying divided. On the other hand, with Air Force getting interest from the AAC and rumors swirling about potential shifts, UNM might also be contemplating a move. Only time will tell. Very good point, but good luck convincing UNM of that. LOL. All joking aside, NMSU and UTEP are also big rivals. They're located 45 minutes apart and more or less occupy the same DMA. It's a very different kind of rivalry though. Those two can actually be civil to each other and I think they realize they're better off standing together than separately. I wish UNM would jump on that train because it would be a nice 3-way conference rivalry. Funny story - I forget which year it was exactly, but Bob Stull was UTEP's AD. One day he "hereby declared" that all NMSU vs UTEP football games from now to eternity would be played in El Paso. NMSU promptly said F-you and canceled their game with them that year. By some miracle, they were able to schedule a home game against Oregon which was picked up on national TV. UTEP was only able to schedule an FCS opponent as their replacement game. The game was scheduled to be in the Sun Bowl that year so UTEP lost out on what would have been a sold out stadium to play an FCS school in front of a sparse crowd, while we got a big crowd at our house and national TV. UTEP reversed course very quickly and it went back to playing every year in alternating cities. They have gotten along a lot better since that incident. |
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Post by missiontrails on Sept 16, 2024 14:19:49 GMT -8
If you like me remembers Mexico Ploy you must be old like me. Lol Way older than I wish I was. Don't forget MCRD! (I'm not as old as you guys, but remember that from the archives)  |
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Post by survalli on Sept 16, 2024 14:26:14 GMT -8
the only reason for the MWC to survive is too take in the exit fees from everyone else. same as the Pac2
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Post by zurac315 on Sept 16, 2024 14:26:16 GMT -8
Way older than I wish I was. Don't forget MCRD! (I'm not as old as you guys, but remember that from the archives) MCRD.  |
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Post by zurac315 on Sept 16, 2024 14:27:51 GMT -8
Would North Dakota State want to "move up" to the MWC? They probably could have moved up long ago if they wanted to.
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Post by aztech on Sept 16, 2024 14:55:20 GMT -8
There's a few obvious problems with this: 1. NMSU and UTEP won't make the move unless it's a very clear step up from CUSA. Both are happy in CUSA as it is a conference made up of peer schools in terms of athletic spending. All of the CUSA schools except for Liberty have athletic budgets in the mid-$20 million range. It's as level of a playing field as you'll find in college athletics. NMSU went in after being independent for 10 years and darn near won the conference in year 1. Even the "bottom tier" MWC schools outspend us by about $10 million, so we'd go from being on even keel with everyone to being bottom rung again and unable to compete, and UTEP would be in the same boat. That being said, the CUSA media deal pays a little over $800k per school. The current MWC deal pays 4x that, but it is also losing its top four football schools and two of its largest media markets. What would a hypothetical new deal pay? I don't think anybody has any idea at this point. I'm going to venture to guess it will be substantially less than $3 million, but it would have to be substantially more than CUSA's $800k to make any sense at all for UTEP and NMSU to jump. If the new MWC media deal is equitable to the CUSA deal, what's the motivation for NMSU and UTEP to jump? They'd be giving up the long term stability and balanced competitiveness of CUSA for an inherently unstable MWC, with several schools that don't historically get along well with either. 2. UNM will lobby heavily to keep NMSU out of the conference. Based on history, they'll be two faced about it - publicly commenting about how they'd love to have us in the MWC and then voting no in the closed door meetings. You have to understand how much NMSU and UNM flat out hate each other. A lot of politics at play there - UNM always gets the lion's share of the state's funding despite NMSU having a long track record of accomplishing a lot more with a lot less. UNM always does whatever they can to try to suppress NMSU, and they have a lot more population up there so it's a lot easier for them to crawl up the legislator's butts. 3. The Montanas and Dakotas add nothing to the conference's coffers. Nobody lives there, so they won't do anything at all to move the needle towards a better TV deal. 4. I could see Cal Davis being a solid addition - IF they really want to move up. That's a financially expensive proposition. It costs $5 million off the bat now to move up to FCS, and then everything else is more expensive. You need more scholarships, more NIL money, FBS level coaches instead of FCS (and more of them), have to improve your facilities to FBS level, etc. And from what I've read, it's Sac State that is really feeling motivated to move up, not UC Davis. I could see them going as a pair, but the question remains - do they really move the needle in terms of media market? 5. There's a pretty substantial lack of trust between NMSU and our former WAC and Big West conference mates (Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State). All three of those stabbed us in the back more than once. NMSU fans and alumni really want nothing to do with any of them. 6. Montana is politically tied to Montana State. You can't take one without the other, and I'm not sure the conference wants both. I'm not sure if the same holds true for the Dakotas or not. Outside of these things, I think that would be a pretty solid regional G5 conference that makes a lot of sense. But there's an awful lot to be overcome if that is going to happen. My guess is that the UNM's and Wyoming's of the world are going to have to figure out a way to reduce their athletics spending and live within their new means, very much like WSU and OSU have to do that. Another possible outcome is the collapse of the MWC: UNLV moves to the PAC, Air Force joins the AAC alongside Army and Navy, Hawaii goes independent, and the remaining schools would be divided between the AAC, CUSA, or FCS leagues. Linear broadcast revenues would shrink, as major media companies like FOX, ESPN, and CBS focus most of their spending on the P4/P5 conferences. Meanwhile, second and third-tier games could be picked up by networks like Scripps, TNT Sports, and the CW. This widening gap between the 'haves' and 'have-nots' would severely limit growth opportunities in the FBS landscape—a scenario that seems increasingly plausible, and driven by consolidated media dollars. If that happens does that mean we'll get 100% of the basketball credits that WE earned? |
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Post by AzTex on Sept 16, 2024 15:09:52 GMT -8
Way older than I wish I was. Don't forget MCRD! (I'm not as old as you guys, but remember that from the archives) Don't worry, that game will never be forgotten by those of us there at that time. |
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Post by Cwag on Sept 16, 2024 15:11:32 GMT -8
Don't forget MCRD! (I'm not as old as you guys, but remember that from the archives) Don't worry, that game will never be forgotten by those of us there at that time. You poor old bastards.  |
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Post by jp92grad on Sept 16, 2024 15:29:20 GMT -8
Don't forget MCRD! (I'm not as old as you guys, but remember that from the archives) Don't worry, that game will never be forgotten by those of us there at that time. For all you guys that were at that game, you all need to get together and sit down with the EVT guys and girls and document it. These games you guys all talk about need to be put down in writings and collect all memorabilia maybe even find out if MCRD has any history of those games (pics, media guides....) These things need to be written down from the guys that saw them first hand Go Aztecs! |
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Post by AzTex on Sept 16, 2024 15:50:04 GMT -8
Don't worry, that game will never be forgotten by those of us there at that time. You poor old bastards. Sooner than you think, with any luck, you'll be a poor old bastard yourself.  |
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