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Post by docmm on Jul 1, 2024 15:24:38 GMT -8
Lets review 2024 and how the leagues have expanded, the Big 12 Conference consists of 16 member schools: University of Arizona Arizona State University Baylor University Brigham Young University (BYU) University of Central Florida (UCF) University of Cincinnati University of Colorado Boulder University of Houston Iowa State University University of Kansas Kansas State University Oklahoma State University Texas Christian University (TCU) Texas Tech University University of Utah West Virginia University This lineup includes new additions from the Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah, while Texas and Oklahoma have departed for the SEC. I can't imagine that the powers that be in the BIG12 wouldn't gladly exchange West Virginia for the Aztecs if it could be done without $ or legal issues cropping up. |
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Post by Gundo on Jul 1, 2024 15:25:17 GMT -8
Recapping the P4 math for 2024 based on my previous posts.
Big XII = 16
Big 10 = 18
SEC = 16
ACC = 18
Total = 68
The appetite for leagues to add more than a few schools is minimal. The ACC, like the Pac-12, will be heavily impacted but will endure in some form, the Pac2 may as well? Over the next decade, only around 10 schools are likely to be added based on current trends. ESPN's contract with the ACC runs until 2036. If key schools like Clemson, Florida State, UNC, Duke, or Miami leave, ESPN might renegotiate the contract. Clemson and Florida State are expected to remain in the ACC through the 2025 season due to ongoing legal disputes, so no major changes are imminent this year.
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Post by Den60 on Jul 1, 2024 15:36:31 GMT -8
That is something I've brought up on other boards, how can the MWC get a new media rights deal if half the teams are looking to leave? You mention 11. Does Hawaii not have a vote? Also, what have you heard about AFA. I've heard they may not be that eager to join the PAC, at least not in all sports. For me, AFA as football only paired with Gonzaga would be a very good add. If not AFA then I think Hawaii FB only paired with Zaga would be workable. Now I did see the MWC has teamed up with truTV to cover some BB games, but I don't think that would be a completely new deal. They are getting a lot of games that re not quality, SDSU against Texas A&M (not that one) and about half of New Mexico's games. Edited to Add: The MWC doesn't have a GOR which is different than the exit fees. A GOR binds the schools to a third party, their media partner(s), which makes it harder to get out of. And, have you heard of what media companies might be interested in the new PAC? And, finally, what about AAC teams like Memphis, Tulane and UTSA? That is a lot to cover… I wrote GOR, but meant exit fees… The TNT deal is only picking up games that had not been selected by current partners and is minimal… State wants AFA to be one of the six, but AFA may not want to come… Hawaii wouldn’t be able to vote on BB schedule, for example… I have nothing in the AAC schools Yeah, figured you meant exit fees. And I meant truTV picking up FB games, not BB ones. Still, that gives more households than Peacock, who will be airing quite a few Washington games. I've heard that with AFA. They would be a better fit in the AAC with the other service academies I think. Again, if no AFA does the PAC take another MWC school?. To me, I'd like Hawaii plus Zaga. Hawaii is 5th in reveunes behind SDSU, AFA, CSU, and UNLV though not that much separation from USU and Reno. One question I have, is the 8 member minimum for FB or could Zaga be 8th as a non-football member. I know its a dream, but I keep hoping Utah and ASU, the ones who really didn't want to leave, would reconsider and stay in the PAC. Utah still has that option but don't know about ASU. I do know that Utah isn't happy being in the B12. |
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Post by docmm on Jul 1, 2024 15:38:22 GMT -8
Recapping the P4 math for 2024 based on my previous posts. Big XII = 16 Big 10 = 18 SEC = 16 ACC = 18Total = 68 The appetite for leagues to add more than a few schools is minimal. The ACC, like the Pac-12, will be heavily impacted but will endure in some form, the Pac2 may as well? Over the next decade, only around 10 schools are likely to be added based on current trends. ESPN's contract with the ACC runs until 2036. If key schools like Clemson, Florida State, UNC, Duke, or Miami leave, ESPN might renegotiate the contract. Clemson and Florida State are expected to remain in the ACC through the 2025 season due to ongoing legal disputes, so no major changes are imminent this year. I could see either getting rid of 4 schools to make it an easy 64 schools for Tournaments or cosmically leave it at 68 schools to match MM. |
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Post by Den60 on Jul 1, 2024 15:38:36 GMT -8
Why does State want AFA to be one of the six? Simply because the other options suck? I've never been to Reno, but wouldn't be opposed to adding them if AFA didn't want to come as it seems like a nice place to visit and they've been pretty good with their athletics. I could see AFA if we're still worried about academics and kissing the feet of the academic elitists in the old PAC10 but in these Wild West days of conference expansion, schools like Grand Canyon "University" and DeVry University would even be considered if the $ numbers worked. A big NO to Grand Canyon. |
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Post by Den60 on Jul 1, 2024 15:43:42 GMT -8
That is a lot to cover… I wrote GOR, but meant exit fees… The TNT deal is only picking up games that had not been selected by current partners and is minimal… State wants AFA to be one of the six, but AFA may not want to come… Hawaii wouldn’t be able to vote on BB schedule, for example… I have nothing in the AAC schools Why does State want AFA to be one of the six? Simply because the other options suck? I've never been to Reno, but wouldn't be opposed to adding them if AFA didn't want to come as it seems like a nice place to visit and they've been pretty good with their athletics. Reno has a population less than that of Chula Vista, at 273K. Hawaii has a population (all islands) of 1.44M and they are the flagship university for the state. Markets are going to mean something and Hawaii does have a history of some FB success. |
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Post by Gundo on Jul 1, 2024 16:04:30 GMT -8
Recapping the P4 math for 2024 based on my previous posts. Big XII = 16 Big 10 = 18 SEC = 16 ACC = 18Total = 68 The appetite for leagues to add more than a few schools is minimal. The ACC, like the Pac-12, will be heavily impacted but will endure in some form, the Pac2 may as well? Over the next decade, only around 10 schools are likely to be added based on current trends. ESPN's contract with the ACC runs until 2036. If key schools like Clemson, Florida State, UNC, Duke, or Miami leave, ESPN might renegotiate the contract. Clemson and Florida State are expected to remain in the ACC through the 2025 season due to ongoing legal disputes, so no major changes are imminent this year. I could see either getting rid of 4 schools to make it an easy 64 schools for Tournaments or cosmically leave it at 68 schools to match MM. Among established FBS programs, few would dismiss the credentials of Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Boston College, and West Virginia. While it's hypothetical, arguments could be scarce against including them in the P4 fold. However, considering the current playoff structure, I doubt the ecosystem could sustain more than 70-75 schools at most. In 2024, there will be a total of 134 schools competing in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). This number includes schools that have recently transitioned from the FCS, such as Sam Houston and Jacksonville State in 2023, and Kennesaw State joining in 2024. And CUSA will expand further in 2025, with Delaware and Missouri State confirming that they will join the conference for the 2025–26 season. |
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Post by Boise Aztec on Jul 1, 2024 19:18:40 GMT -8
Recapping the P4 math for 2024 based on my previous posts. Big XII = 16 Big 10 = 18 SEC = 16 ACC = 18Total = 68 The appetite for leagues to add more than a few schools is minimal. The ACC, like the Pac-12, will be heavily impacted but will endure in some form, the Pac2 may as well? Over the next decade, only around 10 schools are likely to be added based on current trends. ESPN's contract with the ACC runs until 2036. If key schools like Clemson, Florida State, UNC, Duke, or Miami leave, ESPN might renegotiate the contract. Clemson and Florida State are expected to remain in the ACC through the 2025 season due to ongoing legal disputes, so no major changes are imminent this year. The magic number would be 72… you would have four conferences all at 18 teams… effectively two 9 team divisions… you would have an easy eight division game schedule with two crossover games in conference and two OOC games… The 4 conference champions make the 12 team National Championship bracket with 1 guaranteed spot for all other champions and then 7 At Large teams… If you go to a 16 team bracket then all 8 “division” winners make the bracket with 1 “other” champion and 7 At Large. |
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Post by LostAztec on Jul 2, 2024 5:21:13 GMT -8
Lets review 2024 and how the leagues have expanded, the Big 12 Conference consists of 16 member schools: University of Arizona Arizona State University Baylor University Brigham Young University (BYU) University of Central Florida (UCF) University of Cincinnati University of Colorado Boulder University of Houston Iowa State University University of Kansas Kansas State University Oklahoma State University Texas Christian University (TCU) Texas Tech University University of Utah West Virginia University This lineup includes new additions from the Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah, while Texas and Oklahoma have departed for the SEC. I can't imagine that the powers that be in the BIG12 wouldn't gladly exchange West Virginia for the Aztecs if it could be done without $ or legal issues cropping up. Now, that's hilarious 😎 |
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Post by LostAztec on Jul 2, 2024 5:31:00 GMT -8
I think the 2PAC will just suck up all the money they can and then reverse merger with the MW. They will also try to negotiate that they keep the PAC tourney credits post merger. I read the WSU President interview and the conclusion I draw is that they are more interested in maintaining a funding level than building a new conference. Winner, winner. Chicken dinner. |
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Post by 94sdsu on Jul 2, 2024 6:05:03 GMT -8
I think the 2PAC will just suck up all the money they can and then reverse merger with the MW. They will also try to negotiate that they keep the PAC tourney credits post merger. I read the WSU President interview and the conclusion I draw is that they are more interested in maintaining a funding level than building a new conference. Which interview? I’d like to read it as I must have missed it |
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Post by laaztec on Jul 2, 2024 8:19:22 GMT -8
I think the 2PAC will just suck up all the money they can and then reverse merger with the MW. They will also try to negotiate that they keep the PAC tourney credits post merger. I read the WSU President interview and the conclusion I draw is that they are more interested in maintaining a funding level than building a new conference. I read the same article and that’s not my conclusion at all. He was noncommittal and was basically open to everything. He’s retiring soon so I don’t think he wants to commit to anything before that happens. |
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Post by greysuit on Jul 2, 2024 9:38:43 GMT -8
I think the 2PAC will just suck up all the money they can and then reverse merger with the MW. They will also try to negotiate that they keep the PAC tourney credits post merger. I read the WSU President interview and the conclusion I draw is that they are more interested in maintaining a funding level than building a new conference. Winner, winner. Chicken dinner. We would want the same if SDSU was in that spot. Even if the Pac2 did expand with the top MTN West teams they would still be seen as a G5 league and get a G5 contract for media rights. OSU and WSU were left behind for a reason. So they are going to soak up all the funding while they can before they drop to G5 status. |
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Post by Boise Aztec on Jul 2, 2024 10:50:55 GMT -8
Winner, winner. Chicken dinner. We would want the same if SDSU was in that spot. Even if the Pac2 did expand with the top MTN West teams they would still be seen as a G5 league and get a G5 contract for media rights. OSU and WSU were left behind for a reason. So they are going to soak up all the funding while they can before they drop to G5 status. I don’t understand the conversation… the money is theirs… they will spend some to “fix” their conference and the rest will go to their athletic departments. |
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Post by LostAztec on Jul 2, 2024 11:12:47 GMT -8
The “wad” Will be less than half of the reported fees to exit the MWC and the schools will be on the hook for a portion of it… Though the PAC2 agreed in writing that for the initial school, it would be $10M and each additional school would add $500K so the payment schedule would be: 1. 10 2. 10.5 3. 11 4. 11.5 5. 12 6. 12.5 Total: $67.5M However, SDSU would be leaving behind $14M or so in tournament credits so they may be be able to bargain with that a bit. Let's say the total is $60M for simplicity. If the PAC pays 50% of the fees then the average per school would be 30/6 for $5M each paid over 3 years so $1.67M/year. SDSU, being the biggest prize and leaving behind the most money could pay significantly less. But, even at $67.5M and given the same terms that would be $5.625M or $1.88M/year. All Tourney credits and Bowl Revenue earned as a member of the MW are kept by the Conference as the first installments on the exit fee. The departing School then has a couple years to pay the balance. |
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Post by LostAztec on Jul 2, 2024 11:15:08 GMT -8
Isn't it true that the Pac2 has to expand by 2026 or they'll no longer be an official conference? They can't wait to see how the ACC shakes out since the clock is ticking. Yes, they have to be up and running with a minimum of 8 schools by 2026. I think they're waiting to see that all departing schools are fully committed to their new conferences before making moves to invite new members. Utah has until Aug. 4th before they are committed to the B12. Not sure about the Zona schools. Arizona fired their AD and "asked" their President to resign since they made the decision to move. I don't think its likely they come back but Utah might like the flexibility to move to the B1G in the future which they would likely be able to negotiate should they rethink their decision and stay with the PAC. To be honest, the conference could have survived with OSU, Wazzu, Cal, Stanford, Utah, ASU & Zona and adding SDSU to be a decent western conference. Could even add UNLV and CSU to get to 10. Personally, I would prefer to be in a smaller conference where you play every team each year in FB and twice for BB. Ten Team Conferences are the bomb. 🤯 |
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Post by LostAztec on Jul 2, 2024 11:20:35 GMT -8
Not sure about the specifics but if all we West-based schools get into the ACC, wouldn't Oregon State and Washington State lose all that PAC2 $ if they went too? Yes, but they would consider that to be worth it. I'm not sure how I feel about that. The ACC is a good conference but our BB team would be subject to quite a bit more travel across 3 time zones. The ACC would have to take OSU/Wazzu/SDSU and, likely, UNLV to make it work. Amd we fans complain about roadies to Logan, Laramie, and Co Springs. Think about having to go to Syracuse or worse Provo. |
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Post by omnipotentaztec on Jul 2, 2024 12:11:14 GMT -8
The longer WSU and OSU wait to build up the PAC2, the more they will be seen as nothing more than G5 teams. If they were smart, they would start making moves to protect their reputations for the long term. Another metaphor, penny wise, pound foolish.
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Post by Den60 on Jul 2, 2024 15:35:55 GMT -8
The longer WSU and OSU wait to build up the PAC2, the more they will be seen as nothing more than G5 teams. If they were smart, they would start making moves to protect their reputations for the long term. Another metaphor, penny wise, pound foolish. Again, they likely won't do anything before ensuring that leaving teams are fully committed to their new conferences. Utah, ASU and the Calford all reacted out of panic and Calford in in an untenable situation with travel in the ACC. Utah, we know, is not committed to the B12 until August 4. The other schools, I don't know. However, it is not likely any of them will decide not to leave, but while there is still a chance that some could return there is no reason to do anything. Its too late to do anything for the 2024/2025 season anyway. I don't see their reputation being tainted by waiting. If they were considered to be p4 teams they would have been invited to a P4 conference. That ain't happening. |
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Post by Den60 on Jul 2, 2024 15:40:48 GMT -8
Yes, they have to be up and running with a minimum of 8 schools by 2026. I think they're waiting to see that all departing schools are fully committed to their new conferences before making moves to invite new members. Utah has until Aug. 4th before they are committed to the B12. Not sure about the Zona schools. Arizona fired their AD and "asked" their President to resign since they made the decision to move. I don't think its likely they come back but Utah might like the flexibility to move to the B1G in the future which they would likely be able to negotiate should they rethink their decision and stay with the PAC. To be honest, the conference could have survived with OSU, Wazzu, Cal, Stanford, Utah, ASU & Zona and adding SDSU to be a decent western conference. Could even add UNLV and CSU to get to 10. Personally, I would prefer to be in a smaller conference where you play every team each year in FB and twice for BB. Ten Team Conferences are the bomb. 🤯 In our situation, I'd rather be in a 8-10 team "best of the west, rest" conference than a 14 team conference with all the MWC schools included. The MWC just voted to expand their BB schedule to 20 games despite the fact that the in conference competition did not help other MWC schools get good seeds in the tournament. I'd rather play Boise St, OSU, Wazzu, Fresno, CSU, UNLV and, AFA or Hawaii every year in football than have to play New Mexico, SJU, UNR, Wyoming and USU every other year. |
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