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Post by PAC12 Aztec on May 16, 2024 15:43:51 GMT -8
SDSU doesn’t care about then”other” MWC schools, neither does any of the other “top” MWC schools… no way 9 schools go to P2 Tell me then who does go to the PAC? They need a minimum of 6 to stay viable as a conference. The only way they could get 6 MWC schools would be to subsidize their exit fees. They probably have the money to do that, but will they? Or would they hold their noses and take 9 of the 12? My whole points in all of this are a) nobody knows how it's going to play out at this point; and b) never say never. Nobody predicted the PAC 12 disintegrating either. "We're all sticking together." Until we aren't. It might be hopeful, but I think PAC2 only takes 6 of the top MGC schools and prays CALFord comes back. However, I don't think this is realistic and CALFord isn't coming back, and the PAC2 just takes 6 MGC schools and becomes the PAC8 again. The exit fee will be negotiated and reduced for the exiting schools. The MGC will reload with schools like NMSU. None of the options are really any good at this point. Now we get to all wait and see what happens. I don't believe the PAC2 is in any hurry because they are seeing how the dominos fall and see if they can take 💩💩💩 and come out smelling something like 🌹🌹. |
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Post by sdaztec4life on May 16, 2024 16:07:04 GMT -8
So here's where things potentially get interesting. The PAC 2 is already on record as saying they'd rather not be conference mates with the MWC bottom feeders. This media deal might indicate that the PAC2 has a little more clout than a lot of people gave them credit for. So here's a few different ways things could pan out 1. The PAC takes on the entire MWC to become the PAC 14. In this scenario, I envision Hawaii going in for all sports instead of FB only. However, this goes against the PAC 2's wish to not be aligned with the likes of Wyoming and Nevada. 2. The PAC manages to get the necessary 9 votes together to dissolve the MWC. In that scenario, they can only leave out 3 of the bottom feeders (Wyoming, and I would guess UNM and either USU or Nevada). That leaves 3 schools looking for a conference and very few options to rebuild the MWC. They could potentially offer NMSU, UTEP, Sam Houston, and then scrounge for a couple others (the Dakotas or Montanas?). Geographically that would be a lot better for NMSU and UTEP than the current CUSA, but it would have to be a pretty enticing media deal to leave the CUSA which is now very stable. 3. The PAC 2 uses some of their riches to subsidize exit fees for the MWC schools that it wants. In this scenario they take SDSU, Boise, Fresno, UNLV, probably CSU and Air Force, perhaps SJSU and Hawaii (just trying to make logical guesses) and get back to 8-10. In this case, I think the MWC survives by adding NMSU, UTEP, and Sam Houston. Hawaii is a Hard No! A SIX hour flight for ALL sports is not going to happen. |
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Post by sdcoug on May 16, 2024 18:33:59 GMT -8
SDSU doesn’t care about then”other” MWC schools, neither does any of the other “top” MWC schools… no way 9 schools go to P2 Tell me then who does go to the PAC? They need a minimum of 6 to stay viable as a conference. The only way they could get 6 MWC schools would be to subsidize their exit fees. They probably have the money to do that, but will they? Or would they hold their noses and take 9 of the 12? My whole points in all of this are a) nobody knows how it's going to play out at this point; and b) never say never. Nobody predicted the PAC 12 disintegrating either. "We're all sticking together." Until we aren't. There have been more than enough interviews with the 2 president's and ADs to get an understanding of their priorities. Plus, the MWC ADs have had enough discussions to get a decent read on their views as well. Priority #1 is clearly a P4 invite in a western pod, and that may or may not include SDSU, depending on who's involved. Priority #2 is clearly to relaunch the P12. They'd lose too much money if they were to do a full merger, so that's a nonstarter. The strong preference is for a P2+6 formula. There's little to no interest in inviting 9 MWC teams. As Boise mentioned, the MWC ADs don't want it, and the P2 definitely doesn't as it would only dilute any media deal. 6 MWC teams is probably pushing it, but there isn't a AAC program that brings enough value to overcome the geographic issues. Who the 6 are is dependent upon what happens with Stanford & Cal? If the ACC GOR survives, and no P4 invite for the P2, then the 6 are likely FSU, BSU, UNLV, & CSU, with the final 2 dependent on media estimates and tgeir investments in athletics. If Stanford & Cal have buyers remorse & are able to get out of their contracts, then the mix changes & brings SMU into the picture. Could be a P2 + ACC3 + 3-5 from the MWC/AAC and it may have an academic slant (i.e., there are some schools Stanford/Cal may not want). They have said they're willing to assist with buyouts to make it happen as those would be an investment in the future. I'd assume they'd play a waiting game & negotiate any buyouts as the MWC contract comes to an end. The penalty for stealing teams within the football agreement may apply but what could the MWC withhold from those teams? $6M owed in media for 2025-2026? But again, the primary goal is for another set of chaos with the P2 being brought back to the table. |
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Post by zurac315 on May 16, 2024 18:58:10 GMT -8
Tell me then who does go to the PAC? They need a minimum of 6 to stay viable as a conference. The only way they could get 6 MWC schools would be to subsidize their exit fees. They probably have the money to do that, but will they? Or would they hold their noses and take 9 of the 12? My whole points in all of this are a) nobody knows how it's going to play out at this point; and b) never say never. Nobody predicted the PAC 12 disintegrating either. "We're all sticking together." Until we aren't. There have been more than enough interviews with the 2 president's and ADs to get an understanding of their priorities. Plus, the MWC ADs have had enough discussions to get a decent read on their views as well. Priority #1 is clearly a P4 invite in a western pod, and that may or may not include SDSU, depending on who's involved. Priority #2 is clearly to relaunch the P12. They'd lose too much money if they were to do a full merger, so that's a nonstarter. The strong preference is for a P2+6 formula. There's little to no interest in inviting 9 MWC teams. As Boise mentioned, the MWC ADs don't want it, and the P2 definitely doesn't as it would only dilute any media deal. 6 MWC teams is probably pushing it, but there isn't a AAC program that brings enough value to overcome the geographic issues. Who the 6 are is dependent upon what happens with Stanford & Cal? If the ACC GOR survives, and no P4 invite for the P2, then the 6 are likely FSU, BSU, UNLV, & CSU, with the final 2 dependent on media estimates and tgeir investments in athletics. If Stanford & Cal have buyers remorse & are able to get out of their contracts, then the mix changes & brings SMU into the picture. Could be a P2 + ACC3 + 3-5 from the MWC/AAC and it may have an academic slant (i.e., there are some schools Stanford/Cal may not want). They have said they're willing to assist with buyouts to make it happen as those would be an investment in the future. I'd assume they'd play a waiting game & negotiate any buyouts as the MWC contract comes to an end. The penalty for stealing teams within the football agreement may apply but what could the MWC withhold from those teams? $6M owed in media for 2025-2026? But again, the primary goal is for another set of chaos with the P2 being brought back to the table. So, in Priority #2 you mention FSU, BSU, UNLV and CSU as likely choices. So, those schools are considered more valuable to such a conference than is SDSU? |
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Post by FULL_MONTY on May 16, 2024 18:58:15 GMT -8
Tell me then who does go to the PAC? They need a minimum of 6 to stay viable as a conference. The only way they could get 6 MWC schools would be to subsidize their exit fees. They probably have the money to do that, but will they? Or would they hold their noses and take 9 of the 12? My whole points in all of this are a) nobody knows how it's going to play out at this point; and b) never say never. Nobody predicted the PAC 12 disintegrating either. "We're all sticking together." Until we aren't. There have been more than enough interviews with the 2 president's and ADs to get an understanding of their priorities. Plus, the MWC ADs have had enough discussions to get a decent read on their views as well. Priority #1 is clearly a P4 invite in a western pod, and that may or may not include SDSU, depending on who's involved. Priority #2 is clearly to relaunch the P12. They'd lose too much money if they were to do a full merger, so that's a nonstarter. The strong preference is for a P2+6 formula. There's little to no interest in inviting 9 MWC teams. As Boise mentioned, the MWC ADs don't want it, and the P2 definitely doesn't as it would only dilute any media deal. 6 MWC teams is probably pushing it, but there isn't a AAC program that brings enough value to overcome the geographic issues. Who the 6 are is dependent upon what happens with Stanford & Cal? If the ACC GOR survives, and no P4 invite for the P2, then the 6 are likely FSU, BSU, UNLV, & CSU, with the final 2 dependent on media estimates and tgeir investments in athletics. If Stanford & Cal have buyers remorse & are able to get out of their contracts, then the mix changes & brings SMU into the picture. Could be a P2 + ACC3 + 3-5 from the MWC/AAC and it may have an academic slant (i.e., there are some schools Stanford/Cal may not want). They have said they're willing to assist with buyouts to make it happen as those would be an investment in the future. I'd assume they'd play a waiting game & negotiate any buyouts as the MWC contract comes to an end. The penalty for stealing teams within the football agreement may apply but what could the MWC withhold from those teams? $6M owed in media for 2025-2026? But again, the primary goal is for another set of chaos with the P2 being brought back to the table. I assume you mean 4 MWC UNLV, Boise, FSU, and CSU with State to make 5 with one spot left to be potentially filled by: Hawaii SJSU WYO USU UNM AFA Nevada |
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Post by Boise Aztec on May 16, 2024 19:22:50 GMT -8
In the scenario mentioned above… the first four are
1. SDSU
2. UNLV
3. CSU
4. AFA
but AFA hasn’t shown interest in changing conferences…
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Post by zurac315 on May 16, 2024 20:44:44 GMT -8
In the scenario mentioned above… the first four are 1. SDSU 2. UNLV 3. CSU 4. AFA but AFA hasn’t shown interest in changing conferences… It doesn't seem like that is what sdcoug is saying unless I misunderstand the post. |
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Post by Boise Aztec on May 17, 2024 6:42:54 GMT -8
In the scenario mentioned above… the first four are 1. SDSU 2. UNLV 3. CSU 4. AFA but AFA hasn’t shown interest in changing conferences… It doesn't seem like that is what sdcoug is saying unless I misunderstand the post. I may be wrong, but I assumed he just assumed SDSU was in… and then listed other teams… I also more or less agree with his list, but wanted to point out that AFA has been asked, but has not shown interest in moving up… |
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Post by aztecfred on May 17, 2024 7:00:26 GMT -8
I could see why AF would stay where they are, money not a problem. Just like Army n Navy, they have big games built in and can/do get games with power schools. They stay in/with conference where their Oly sports/travel is more regional, with less missed classes and more competitive, considering their academic and recruiting standards.
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Post by myownwords on May 17, 2024 10:46:10 GMT -8
Curious to know how much they got. I'm guessing below expectations since they didn't disclose the financial payouts. Likely, in large part, because they ejected the flotsam and jetsam--George "Kick-Ass" Kliavfoff---thus avoiding more disasters. |
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Post by sdcoug on May 17, 2024 11:07:27 GMT -8
There have been more than enough interviews with the 2 president's and ADs to get an understanding of their priorities. Plus, the MWC ADs have had enough discussions to get a decent read on their views as well. Priority #1 is clearly a P4 invite in a western pod, and that may or may not include SDSU, depending on who's involved. Priority #2 is clearly to relaunch the P12. They'd lose too much money if they were to do a full merger, so that's a nonstarter. The strong preference is for a P2+6 formula. There's little to no interest in inviting 9 MWC teams. As Boise mentioned, the MWC ADs don't want it, and the P2 definitely doesn't as it would only dilute any media deal. 6 MWC teams is probably pushing it, but there isn't a AAC program that brings enough value to overcome the geographic issues. Who the 6 are is dependent upon what happens with Stanford & Cal? If the ACC GOR survives, and no P4 invite for the P2, then the 6 are likely FSU, BSU, UNLV, & CSU, with the final 2 dependent on media estimates and tgeir investments in athletics. If Stanford & Cal have buyers remorse & are able to get out of their contracts, then the mix changes & brings SMU into the picture. Could be a P2 + ACC3 + 3-5 from the MWC/AAC and it may have an academic slant (i.e., there are some schools Stanford/Cal may not want). They have said they're willing to assist with buyouts to make it happen as those would be an investment in the future. I'd assume they'd play a waiting game & negotiate any buyouts as the MWC contract comes to an end. The penalty for stealing teams within the football agreement may apply but what could the MWC withhold from those teams? $6M owed in media for 2025-2026? But again, the primary goal is for another set of chaos with the P2 being brought back to the table. So, in Priority #2 you mention FSU, BSU, UNLV and CSU as likely choices. So, those schools are considered more valuable to such a conference than is SDSU? Sorry, my bad. Yes SDSU is definitely part of the equation, and should have said the final piece (AF, etc) is most likely to be dictated by the potential media partner. I've heard AF and I've heard others, not AF, as they aren't a good fit in the money sports. |
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Post by myownwords on May 17, 2024 12:09:29 GMT -8
So here's where things potentially get interesting. The PAC 2 is already on record as saying they'd rather not be conference mates with the MWC bottom feeders. This media deal might indicate that the PAC2 has a little more clout than a lot of people gave them credit for. So here's a few different ways things could pan out 1. The PAC takes on the entire MWC to become the PAC 14. In this scenario, I envision Hawaii going in for all sports instead of FB only. However, this goes against the PAC 2's wish to not be aligned with the likes of Wyoming and Nevada. 2. The PAC manages to get the necessary 9 votes together to dissolve the MWC. In that scenario, they can only leave out 3 of the bottom feeders (Wyoming, and I would guess UNM and either USU or Nevada). That leaves 3 schools looking for a conference and very few options to rebuild the MWC. They could potentially offer NMSU, UTEP, Sam Houston, and then scrounge for a couple others (the Dakotas or Montanas?). Geographically that would be a lot better for NMSU and UTEP than the current CUSA, but it would have to be a pretty enticing media deal to leave the CUSA which is now very stable. 3. The PAC 2 uses some of their riches to subsidize exit fees for the MWC schools that it wants. In this scenario they take SDSU, Boise, Fresno, UNLV, probably CSU and Air Force, perhaps SJSU and Hawaii (just trying to make logical guesses) and get back to 8-10. In this case, I think the MWC survives by adding NMSU, UTEP, and Sam Houston. I think that they are just keeping their options open for as long as possible. I am very cynical about any and all past and current PAC members. Thus I assume that the Remnant Two will spend whatever it takes to BUY entry into the P4 someway, somehow, someday. None of them have EVER wanted SDSU included, and, I still think that is true. |
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Post by Den60 on May 17, 2024 12:42:42 GMT -8
So, in Priority #2 you mention FSU, BSU, UNLV and CSU as likely choices. So, those schools are considered more valuable to such a conference than is SDSU? Sorry, my bad. Yes SDSU is definitely part of the equation, and should have said the final piece (AF, etc) is most likely to be dictated by the potential media partner. I've heard AF and I've heard others, not AF, as they aren't a good fit in the money sports. To be honest, Hawaii (FB Only) combined with Gonzaga for Oly's is something I wouldn't mind. |
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Post by sdmotohead on May 17, 2024 13:29:33 GMT -8
After the rug got pulled out from underneath us w/ both the Big East AND the Pac 12, I'm not optimistic about anything anymore.
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Post by zurac315 on May 17, 2024 15:52:51 GMT -8
I think that they are just keeping their options open for as long as possible. I am very cynical about any and all past and current PAC members. Thus I assume that the Remnant Two will spend whatever it takes to BUY entry into the P4 someway, somehow, someday. None of them have EVER wanted SDSU included, and, I still think that is true. I agree. |
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Post by myownwords on May 17, 2024 16:16:30 GMT -8
I am very cynical about any and all past and current PAC members. Thus I assume that the Remnant Two will spend whatever it takes to BUY entry into the P4 someway, somehow, someday. None of them have EVER wanted SDSU included, and, I still think that is true. I agree. Suck the SAC PAC |
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Post by standiego on May 18, 2024 9:15:08 GMT -8
Coug what are you hearing about the future PAC ?
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Post by sdcoug on May 18, 2024 9:20:40 GMT -8
Coug what are you hearing about the future PAC ? Read above. Covered multiple times. |
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Post by AztecWilliam on Aug 28, 2024 12:57:05 GMT -8
An important date in the PAC/MWC saga is almost here. On Sept. 1st, the 2 conferences need to sign an extension of their current scheduling agreement. The issue is this; whether to extend the agreement to the 2025/2026 season. Several options are on the table, including whether to sign a new agreement with new terms, extend the existing agreement, or to cancel the whole thing.
My guess is that the agreement will be extended for another year. That would give WashSt/OregonSt another year to decide what they need to do. But the PAC2 will have to get a new conference together by 2026 or they will have to divide the millions they received from the NCAA among the PAC12 members that threw them overboard. I think they must have been working diligently all this time to solve that dilemma.
I think the most likely arrangement would be to poach six teams from the Mountain West. That would probably be SDSU, Fresno, Boise, UNLV, and two from the following: San Jose St., Colorado St., and Hawaii. (Colorado St., in my opinion is better than the other high altitude schools. Better would be SJSU and Hawaii. Those are at sea level.)
People have mentioned schools from the AAC, but dealing with two donating conferences would seem to pose extra problems for the PAC2. There is also the possibility, or maybe the probablility, that those schools would not be eager to joing a conference so far from home, as well as one not so well established as their own.
Also a possibilty, though in my opinion a remote one, is that a Power Conference would invite the PAC2 to join.
These are exciting time.
AzWm
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Post by panammaniac on Aug 28, 2024 13:28:38 GMT -8
An important date in the PAC/MWC saga is almost here. On Sept. 1st, the 2 conferences need to sign an extension of their current scheduling agreement. The issue is this; whether to extend the agreement to the 2025/2026 season. Several options are on the table, including whether to sign a new agreement with new terms, extend the existing agreement, or to cancel the whole thing.
My guess is that the agreement will be extended for another year. That would give WashSt/OregonSt another year to decide what they need to do. But the PAC2 will have to get a new conference together by 2026 or they will have to divide the millions they received from the NCAA among the PAC12 members that threw them overboard. I think they must have been working diligently all this time to solve that dilemma.
I think the most likely arrangement would be to poach six teams from the Mountain West. That would probably be SDSU, Fresno, Boise, UNLV, and two from the following: San Jose St., Colorado St., and Hawaii. (Colorado St., in my opinion is better than the other high altitude schools. Better would be SJSU and Hawaii. Those are at sea level.)
People have mentioned schools from the AAC, but dealing with two donating conferences would seem to pose extra problems for the PAC2. There is also the possibility, or maybe the probablility, that those schools would not be eager to joing a conference so far from home, as well as one not so well established as their own.
Also a possibilty, though in my opinion a remote one, is that a Power Conference would invite the PAC2 to join.
These are exciting time.
AzWm The AAC media deal is worth about $7 million per school, which is double the MWC media deal. If the PAC 2 is able to survive by either poaching 6 MWC schools or by merging with the entire MWC, the media deal probably won't be significantly higher than the current MWC deal. I could be wrong, but I don't see any AAC schools that are going to move the needle enough to bring a rebuilt PAC 2 to anywhere near $7 million. If they poach half of the MWC then there's the issue of MWC exit fees to deal with. Instead of losing their war chest to former PAC 12 members, they'd lose it to current MWC members as they subsidize their exit fees. It really is a quagmire with no easy solution. And I know it's not SDSU's problem and most of you don't care, but if half of the MWC gets poached, who does the MWC add to remain a viable conference? The easy answer to that is NMSU/UTEP, but I'm not positive either of those would leave the stability and top-to-bottom competitiveness of CUSA to go to a gutted MWC. |
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