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Post by hoobs on Aug 11, 2023 10:25:16 GMT -8
I just don't see Stanford and Cal accepting Fresno State. This is the 8 I think they would be ok with: Stanford Cal Oregon State Washington State SDSU SMU Tulane Rice There is your 8. Colorado State would be a good #9 and then it gets tough to find a 10th (Memphis, UNLV, Air Force?) But if you stay at 8 and later down the road Standford and Cal leave, you could immediately add Boise State and Fresno State (and thne a few more if needed) and still have the best of the rest conference. With that list, I think you definitely have to add CSU and UNLV. Both are reasonably (sufficiently) strong in academics, and a reformed PAC *does* need to be a bit ruthless and hurt "competing" conferences like the MW and AAC. |
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Post by jdaztec on Aug 11, 2023 10:32:43 GMT -8
UC Davis would be a good add. Very strong academics, have always had strong athletic teams at the levels that have been in and they are in The Sacramento Market not The Bay Area.
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Post by lemkotir on Aug 11, 2023 10:32:54 GMT -8
All 3 options beneficial to SDSU, granted rebuilt Pac12 paid SDSU exit fees?
At that level, the campus distributions would significantly lag schools those in the Power Four but far exceed payouts typically received by members of the Group of Five.--------------------- If so, then Stanford and Cal will be very motivated to rebuild the PAC-X with no other attractive good options left, if they can still salvage getting $20m per year with media + post season credits, as a stop gap measure. AAC schools will get a bump of 50%, while MWC schools would get 100%, in the hypnotical PAC-X new media deal. Is that enough money to make a jump, to be associated with the wondering eyes of Calford, and the name/brand of Stanford? If so, now Calford must decide which schools to add, after looking at who brings in about ~$10m in media rights value, and on field success in football and basketball, that are additive to each member of the conference in $, $$, $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ As far as unequal revenue sharing for the Media Rights portion, I guess Stanford may demand that... I support unequal revenue sharing on post season monies... |
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Post by Trujillos & Beer on Aug 11, 2023 10:34:47 GMT -8
All 3 options beneficial to SDSU, granted rebuilt Pac12 paid SDSU exit fees? Sign me up for option two. Sure we'd theoretically sacrifice 400K a year but it would be worth it to leave Boise St. behind in the MWC. Then if Stanford leaves for the B1G in 5-6 years we can consider bringing Boise St. in at a reduced share. Payback! |
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Post by lemkotir on Aug 11, 2023 10:37:39 GMT -8
All 3 options beneficial to SDSU, granted rebuilt Pac12 paid SDSU exit fees? Sign me up for option two. Sure we'd theoretically sacrifice 400K a year but it would be worth it to leave Boise St. behind in the MWC. Then if Stanford leaves for the B1G in 5-6 years we can consider bringing Boise St. in at a reduced share. Payback! Here are the scenarios for those of you cannot read: Scenario I Expansion move: The four remaining schools merge with the Mountain West to create a super-conference. While an outright merger is considered unlikely, we wanted to provide a broad sweep of outcomes. Total members: 16 in football, 15 in basketball (excluding Hawaii) Estimated average valuation: $8.4 million per school Scenario II Expansion move: The four remaining schools add San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State from the Mountain West and SMU, Rice and Tulane from the American. Total members: 10 Estimated average valuation: $10.5 million per school Scenario III Expansion move: The four remaining schools add San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State from the Mountain West and SMU and Tulane from the American. Total members: 10 Estimated average valuation: $10.9 million per school |
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Post by hoobs on Aug 11, 2023 10:37:49 GMT -8
If SDSU can't sneak into the Big-howevermany, I would jump at either Option 2 or 3. But, as noted elsewhere... I'd love to see how the media consultant would have valued Option 3 with UNLV added instead of Boise.
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Post by laaztec on Aug 11, 2023 10:38:11 GMT -8
Cal and Stanford won't bring in Fresno. I would go for Option 2 with swapping out UNLV for Fresno.
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Post by lemkotir on Aug 11, 2023 10:42:17 GMT -8
Sign me up for option two. Sure we'd theoretically sacrifice 400K a year but it would be worth it to leave Boise St. behind in the MWC. Then if Stanford leaves for the B1G in 5-6 years we can consider bringing Boise St. in at a reduced share. Payback! Here are the scenarios for those of you cannot read: Scenario I Expansion move: The four remaining schools merge with the Mountain West to create a super-conference. While an outright merger is considered unlikely, we wanted to provide a broad sweep of outcomes. Total members: 16 in football, 15 in basketball (excluding Hawaii) Estimated average valuation: $8.4 million per school Scenario II Expansion move: The four remaining schools add San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State from the Mountain West and SMU, Rice and Tulane from the American. Total members: 10 Estimated average valuation: $10.5 million per school Scenario III Expansion move: The four remaining schools add San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State from the Mountain West and SMU and Tulane from the American. Total members: 10 Estimated average valuation: $10.9 million per school Like we've discussed, the future PAC-X adds based on everyone's opinions and thoughts, and in some cases, PAC-X sources are: SDSU - lock SMU - highly likely, almost a lock Tulane - strong candidate Rice - lukewarm Everyone else: UNLV, CSU, Fresno, Boise |
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Post by Trujillos & Beer on Aug 11, 2023 10:43:42 GMT -8
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Post by myownwords on Aug 11, 2023 10:44:41 GMT -8
IF Kick-Ass Kliavkoff is running this gambit, then it is DOA, but we won't be apprised for about a year.
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Post by lemkotir on Aug 11, 2023 10:47:04 GMT -8
I hope Calford are getting targeted schools NDA signed, and talk about the barebone structure they envision and will propose. Things have to happen fast behind the curtains to make everything work.
I also think Cal may not want a second CSU school in the future state PAC-X.
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Post by Cwag on Aug 11, 2023 10:55:51 GMT -8
UC Davis would be a good add. Very strong academics, have always had strong athletic teams at the levels that have been in and they are in The Sacramento Market not The Bay Area. Now I love UC Davis but this is a stretch, unless they are ready to drop 300 million on facilities. |
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Post by laaztec on Aug 11, 2023 10:56:54 GMT -8
UC Davis would be a good add. Very strong academics, have always had strong athletic teams at the levels that have been in and they are in The Sacramento Market not The Bay Area. Now I love UC Davis but this is a stretch, unless they are ready to drop 300 million on facilities. The UC Davis talk is crazy town. |
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Post by soccer94 on Aug 11, 2023 11:01:46 GMT -8
Sign me up for option two. Sure we'd theoretically sacrifice 400K a year but it would be worth it to leave Boise St. behind in the MWC. Then if Stanford leaves for the B1G in 5-6 years we can consider bringing Boise St. in at a reduced share. Payback! Here are the scenarios for those of you cannot read: Scenario I Expansion move: The four remaining schools merge with the Mountain West to create a super-conference. While an outright merger is considered unlikely, we wanted to provide a broad sweep of outcomes. Total members: 16 in football, 15 in basketball (excluding Hawaii) Estimated average valuation: $8.4 million per school Scenario II Expansion move: The four remaining schools add San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State from the Mountain West and SMU, Rice and Tulane from the American. Total members: 10 Estimated average valuation: $10.5 million per school Scenario III Expansion move: The four remaining schools add San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State from the Mountain West and SMU and Tulane from the American. Total members: 10 Estimated average valuation: $10.9 million per school I'd be happy with scenario 2 or 3. I would like to see three, but have Apple (if they are the media partner) add back in the same escalators the previously offered allowing the payout to grow if certain subscription numbers are met. I see no reason why the numbers should be significantly different from what it was before assuming that the goal for Apple would be to get subscriptions. |
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Post by gocoaztec on Aug 11, 2023 11:10:47 GMT -8
If the remaining 4 PAC schools want to successfully rebuild, they will need the proverbial paradigm shift. Academics will have to take a back seat to on field performance. They also need to stay compact to keep travel costs down.
PAC 4 +
SDSU
Fresno
Boise
UNLV
Another interesting option might be Hawaii. I know, it’s not compact travel, but they pay travel subsidies in all sports. They also don’t expect a cut of the media deal as long as they get to keep and sell their rights on the islands. If they were in UNLV’s slot, would it offer as much product split between only 7 schools? I don’t know enough about their current deals with the MW and BW to determine if this could be a smart financial move.
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Post by laaztec on Aug 11, 2023 11:16:43 GMT -8
If the remaining 4 PAC schools want to successfully rebuild, they will need the proverbial paradigm shift. Academics will have to take a back seat to on field performance. They also need to stay compact to keep travel costs down. PAC 4 + SDSU Fresno Boise UNLV Another interesting option might be Hawaii. I know, it’s not compact travel, but they pay travel subsidies in all sports. They also don’t expect a cut of the media deal as long as they get to keep and sell their rights on the islands. If they were in UNLV’s slot, would it offer as much product split between only 7 schools? I don’t know enough about their current deals with the MW and BW to determine if this could be a smart financial move. The aren't going to add Fresno. There is no need. They have No Cal covered. Also good luck with adding a second Cal State school. |
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Post by samurai on Aug 11, 2023 11:21:52 GMT -8
Ross Dellenger article from Yahoo Sports: Where do Pac-12's remaining 4 end up after latest conference realignment shakeup?sports.yahoo.com/where-do-pac-12s-remaining-4-end-up-after-latest-conference-realignment-shakeup-160519223.htmlOn rebuilding the PAC"Is the Cardinal in (rebuilding the Pac-12) or is it out (becoming an independent)? If it’s in, restructuring the Pac-12 begins in earnest. Time is precious. The four schools have scheduled six games next football season: three non-conference games and three against themselves. Reforming the Pac-12, while difficult, is not impossible." "The quickest and maybe easiest route in reforming is to acquire the most western schools in the American Athletic Conference, such as SMU, UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Tulane and potentially the Sun Belt’s Texas State. To leave, these schools would owe an exit fee as they are well past the 27-month notice that the AAC requires. While the exit fee is negotiable with conference leaders, schools have previously left for $10-17 million. But the cost could be significantly higher since schools would be giving notice inside of a year." On merging with the MWC"The more simple option is for the four (or three) to join the Mountain West. Oregon State and Washington State were two of the lowest-resourced Power Five teams anyhow. From a resource and geographic and cultural perspective, they’d fit well in the conference. Cal, too, maybe. However, Stanford, again, is different. Would the school join as a full-time member? Many believe it would not. But desperate times call for desperate measures. However, some in the MWC would be receptive to offering the school a home for its Olympic sports if it chooses football independence." On joining the American"The AAC offers more money but would require spending much more on travel cost. The league distributes around $8-9 million annually to each member as part of the TV deal, NCAA tournament payout, CFP and more. The primary broadcaster is ESPN. “With the AAC, you get more money and exposure,” says one Group of Five administrator. “It has a better TV deal and windows.” The AAC also has a stronger academic brand as well and is the only Group of Five league to have a team advance to the CFP (Cincinnati in 2021)." |
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Post by gocoaztec on Aug 11, 2023 11:26:10 GMT -8
If the remaining 4 PAC schools want to successfully rebuild, they will need the proverbial paradigm shift. Academics will have to take a back seat to on field performance. They also need to stay compact to keep travel costs down. PAC 4 + SDSU Fresno Boise UNLV Another interesting option might be Hawaii. I know, it’s not compact travel, but they pay travel subsidies in all sports. They also don’t expect a cut of the media deal as long as they get to keep and sell their rights on the islands. If they were in UNLV’s slot, would it offer as much product split between only 7 schools? I don’t know enough about their current deals with the MW and BW to determine if this could be a smart financial move. The aren't going to add Fresno. There is no need. They have No Cal covered. Also good luck with adding a second Cal State school. The new PAC will need to add schools that win football games and have fan support. Fresno meets those requirements and also locks up California.They should be in. |
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Post by Trujillos & Beer on Aug 11, 2023 11:33:06 GMT -8
The aren't going to add Fresno. There is no need. They have No Cal covered. Also good luck with adding a second Cal State school. The new PAC will need to add schools that win football games and have fan support. Fresno meets those requirements and also locks up California. They should be in. Winning isn't everything. If it was SDSU would be in a power conference. I don't hate the idea of Fresno but there is no chance Cal and Stanford go for it. You can pretty easily swap Fresno State for Colorado State and call it a day. |
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Aug 11, 2023 11:39:45 GMT -8
The new PAC will need to add schools that win football games and have fan support. Fresno meets those requirements and also locks up California. They should be in. Winning isn't everything. If it was SDSU would be in a power conference. I don't hate the idea of Fresno but there is no chance Cal and Stanford go for it. You can pretty easily swap Fresno State for Colorado State and call it a day. I agree, but the PAC has to think about their new league’s positioning among other conferences. Someone has to bring up the fact that if they don’t kill their completion they may come back to kill you. Take the B12. They could have killed them and weathered this current storm, But they let their own hubris to be the rope for which they were hung. You take out the top of the MW and you take out the brands of the AAC and you on. JMO. |
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