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Post by chris92065 on Jul 8, 2022 10:44:34 GMT -8
The remaining conferences will continue to recruit San Diego talent. They don't need SDSU to join their conferences. I still don't think we are going to gain as much as some on this board think we are. But I wouldn't be upset if I were proven wrong. Agreed. The remaining Pac 12 schools see adding any MW team as an absolute worst case scenario and would rather stay at 10 teams if given the option. If we want to be added to the conference, we need another team to leave the conference. The worst case for all conferences will be when the big and sec split and form a super league. I don’t know how long ? Maybe a few years. But it will be like the nfl. It’s when, not if. The good news for sdsu is that the only 2 schools on the west coast having a chance to join after usc/ucla departed are Oregon and Stamford because of Phil knight and the Bay Area. The rest will be in tier 2 just like us. |
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Post by aztucho on Jul 8, 2022 11:25:12 GMT -8
We just need one of these 3 teams to ditch their state school partner: Arizona, Washington, Oregon.
Once one does, they all do, and the Pac 12 officially becomes tier 2, and we get an invite.
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Post by soccer94 on Jul 8, 2022 11:38:00 GMT -8
We just need one of these 3 teams to ditch their state school partner: Arizona, Washington, Oregon. Once one does, they all do, and the Pac 12 officially becomes tier 2, and we get an invite. We don't want that in my opinion. Ideally, we want the PAC to stick together, create a TV alliance with the ACC that locks in the current teams for a decent period of time, and add 2 to 4 markets with SDSU being one of the 2 to 4 to increase the TV market share for the conference. I believe the order goes San Diego State, Fresno State, SMU, and then UNLV or Boise State. I initially thought UNLV or Boise over Fresno, but the more I look at it, I think Fresno is the best option. The PAC wants to get the Socal market back in their footprint, and going into Dallas/Texas and Las Vegas or Boise provides additional TVs and recruiting. The PAC staying together with the added four teams is a better on field product than the remaining Big-12, has a bigger TV footprint than the remaining BIG-12, and with or even without an ACC TV alliance, should be able to get a bigger TV contract than the remaining BIG-12. The PAC really needs to hold onto Oregon and Washington. |
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Post by soccer94 on Jul 8, 2022 11:41:25 GMT -8
I think the PAC expands because sitting at 10 teams is too low. If you lose anyone you are getting dangerously low on teams. If they expand to 12 or 14 and lose a couple teams later, they still have a manageable number of teams to carry on. I also don't buy the theory that the teams have to be worth $25 to $30 million in additional revenue individually to be worth adding. Like I have said before, the value of the league is more than the sum of the individual value of the teams. Otherwise, the might as well kick out Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and potentially others.
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Post by aztucho on Jul 8, 2022 11:43:06 GMT -8
We just need one of these 3 teams to ditch their state school partner: Arizona, Washington, Oregon. Once one does, they all do, and the Pac 12 officially becomes tier 2, and we get an invite. We don't want that in my opinion. Ideally, we want the PAC to stick together, create a TV alliance with the ACC that locks in the current teams for a decent period of time, and add 2 to 4 markets with SDSU being one of the 2 to 4 to increase the TV market share for the conference. I believe the order goes San Diego State, Fresno State, SMU, and then UNLV or Boise State. I initially thought UNLV or Boise over Fresno, but the more I look at it, I think Fresno is the best option. The PAC wants to get the Socal market back in their footprint, and going into Dallas/Texas and Las Vegas or Boise provides additional TVs and recruiting. The PAC staying together with the added four teams is a better on field product than the remaining Big-12, has a bigger TV footprint than the remaining BIG-12, and with or even without an ACC TV alliance, should be able to get a bigger TV contract than the remaining BIG-12. The PAC really needs to hold onto Oregon and Washington. That all sounds great, but if the PAC creates a TV alliance with the ACC they will have no need or desire to add any of the teams you listed, including us. We need to get real here. |
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Post by aztucho on Jul 8, 2022 11:46:19 GMT -8
I think the PAC expands because sitting at 10 teams is too low. If you lose anyone you are getting dangerously low on teams. If they expand to 12 or 14 and lose a couple teams later, they still have a manageable number of teams to carry on. I also don't buy the theory that the teams have to be worth $25 to $30 million in additional revenue individually to be worth adding. Like I have said before, the value of the league is more than the sum of the individual value of the teams. Otherwise, the might as well kick out Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and potentially others. We all know it's practically impossible to kick out a team from a conference. The State Legislatures for Oregon and Washington are basically forcing Washington and Oregon to stay with them. The $25M+ "theory" that you reference is a fact, FYI. |
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Post by soccer94 on Jul 8, 2022 12:02:11 GMT -8
I am not suggesting that they will kick anyone out of the conference. The point is the value of the whole is more than the sum of the individual values. That would be the case with teams like SDSU, Fresno St, SMU, Boise, as much as it is for Washington State or Oregon State. The TV execs looks at the number of TV sets in a market. With SDSU and Fresno State bookending the LA market, that is the best way for the PAC (or potentially the BIG-12) to get a foot back in the LA market while also ruling the San Diego market and the Central Valley market which I am now convinced is way bigger than I initially gave it credit for. I pointed out in another post that if you can claim to be back in the LA TV market, SD market, Central Valley market, Dallas market and Vegas or Boise market, that adds about 12 million TV households back into the PAC-12 TV market which is more than the entire current BIG-12 and close to where the new BIG-12 will be when they add their 4 new schools.
LA - 5,476,830
San Diego - 1,065,700
Fresno - 573,180
Bakersfield - 223,250
Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto - 1,379,770
Dallas - 2,713,380
Las Vegas or Boise - 757,840 or 270,200
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Post by gigglyforshrigley on Jul 8, 2022 12:09:41 GMT -8
Are these ratings taking into account streaming? Like Youtube TV, Sling, or watching CBSSN via stream?
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Post by jibron on Jul 8, 2022 12:09:45 GMT -8
Not sure how credible this guy is but
would take this with a grain of salt..
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Post by soccer94 on Jul 8, 2022 12:17:52 GMT -8
Are these ratings taking into account streaming? Like Youtube TV, Sling, or watching CBSSN via stream? Those are TV households. I am not sure how streaming services affect those numbers, but it is clear that people watching on mobile devices is a much bigger share and growing. I think that is where a big part of the ACC/PAC TV merger would come into play, allowing for more money for both the ACC and PAC without allowing for the ACC schools that are locked into the conference to bail. |
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Post by aztucho on Jul 8, 2022 12:48:49 GMT -8
Not sure how credible this guy is but would take this with a grain of salt.. This probably has some merit. For anyone thinking we are about to get an invite to the PAC, this is what the schools in the conference are actively doing. They aren't thinking about SDSU joining, they are thinking about how to leave. The only people that are being forced to think about us are Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State, in that they are terrified they have to join our conference soon. |
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Post by standiego on Jul 8, 2022 13:39:41 GMT -8
The PAC has teams thinking of a variety of alternatives
As mentioned there are schools that first want to try to get into the BIG
There are schools looking at the Big 12
There are Leaders of the PAC trying to keep the conference together
Smart ones are trying to get the Networks to tell them what the TV deal could be so they have actual numbers so they might know what could be the best option
BIG and SEC are going to be Tier or Level 1 - is that 1 Billion for the Conference - does the SEC try to add some additional teams from the ACC - IF that means more money and the Same for the bIG adding teams
N.D , is a wild card
Would also say a very valuable School is Houston - yes they have told Big 12 they are going to join but also have hinted PAC is an option - Houston has a very good TV market - has rich alum base to assist the school - they would buy ads and they provide a very good if not one of the best areas to recruit
SEC could bust the AAC by adding more schools and BIG could bust PAC by adding schools
Biggest Question what do the TV networks want - from listening to them they do not care how many schools a conference has they simply want to televise the higher quality teams playing each other . Yes The Tide is a draw but the average fan mostly wants to watch when they play a decent team bot cellar dweller . Same for the BIG they want Buckeyes , against a quality opponent not a team they can beat 50-0
How much will Tier 2 or even Tier 3 level conferences get - if not as much as before then adding the additional teams does not help them it only makes the % or bottom line smaller
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Post by survalli on Jul 8, 2022 13:46:49 GMT -8
Not sure how credible this guy is but would take this with a grain of salt.. this source is just parroting what guys like MVHR (who im seriously questioning) are saying, none of it to be taken too seriously. |
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Post by laaztec on Jul 8, 2022 13:57:40 GMT -8
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 8, 2022 13:58:14 GMT -8
Not sure how credible this guy is but would take this with a grain of salt.. This probably has some merit. For anyone thinking we are about to get an invite to the PAC, this is what the schools in the conference are actively doing. They aren't thinking about SDSU joining, they are thinking about how to leave. The only people that are being forced to think about us are Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State, in that they are terrified they have to join our conference soon. They are looking at all of their options. Obviously if the B1G comes calling everything changes. Until that happens though, PAC12 teams going to the BIG12, or BIG12 teams going to the PAC12, is purely speculation. The BIG12 is the PAC12's equal at this point. |
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Post by standiego on Jul 8, 2022 14:42:10 GMT -8
Does the PAC or Big 12 have a solid National TV Network that might support either of these two Conferences
The Major Money deals are going to go to BIG and SEC .
Is ESPN firmly behind the SEC / assisted with the addition of the Sooners and Longhorns - would adding schools from ACC bring in even more Money
who might be the major TV channel for the BIG -
and who besides N.D. - do they want -
N.D had been with NBC for home games . CBS looks to lose the SEC to ESPN so who are they after or willing to go after
Fox ?
Houston - with Major Markets - Alums with big Money and a great place to recruit or travel to seems one of the best options for a conference to add
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Post by myownwords on Jul 8, 2022 14:49:29 GMT -8
We just need one of these 3 teams to ditch their state school partner: Arizona, Washington, Oregon. Once one does, they all do, and the Pac 12 officially becomes tier 2, and we get an invite. We don't want that in my opinion. Ideally, we want the PAC to stick together, create a TV alliance with the ACC that locks in the current teams for a decent period of time, and add 2 to 4 markets with SDSU being one of the 2 to 4 to increase the TV market share for the conference. I believe the order goes San Diego State, Fresno State, SMU, and then UNLV or Boise State. I initially thought UNLV or Boise over Fresno, but the more I look at it, I think Fresno is the best option. The PAC wants to get the Socal market back in their footprint, and going into Dallas/Texas and Las Vegas or Boise provides additional TVs and recruiting. The PAC staying together with the added four teams is a better on field product than the remaining Big-12, has a bigger TV footprint than the remaining BIG-12, and with or even without an ACC TV alliance, should be able to get a bigger TV contract than the remaining BIG-12. The PAC really needs to hold onto Oregon and Washington. If YOU were Oregon, or Washington, why would you want to remain as a Pac-10 team? Who would have to be added to create a Pac-something, that would "excite" you? I think it would be Phil Knight's-Mare to have SDSU and/or UNLV, or Fresno. |
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Post by myownwords on Jul 8, 2022 14:55:58 GMT -8
This probably has some merit. For anyone thinking we are about to get an invite to the PAC, this is what the schools in the conference are actively doing. They aren't thinking about SDSU joining, they are thinking about how to leave. The only people that are being forced to think about us are Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State, in that they are terrified they have to join our conference soon. They are looking at all of their options. Obviously if the B1G comes calling everything changes. Until that happens though, PAC12 teams going to the BIG12, or BIG12 teams going to the PAC12, is purely speculation. The BIG12 is the PAC12's equal at this point. As the landscape is laid out today, there is no way for OSU or WSU to remain Power 5 teams, NO MATTER what they do. |
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Post by standiego on Jul 8, 2022 15:17:50 GMT -8
Maybe what the TV Networks decide to pay a conference will determine IF a Conference is a Power Conference
Or At what level or Tier (depending on the way it will be classified )
SEC and BIG as Tier/ Level 1
then it will be dependent on the TV Money a Conference gets - if there is a Level 2 or 3 or .....
That is why there are some hold ups on some schools jumping to join a conference or a conference adding some schools
Believe when TCU first joined the Big 12 - it received a smaller % for the first few years
A conference can do the same for schools that are saying " Pick Me " - it has the leverage
So a lot of speculation -
Will TV let Conferences know how much they will pay - they have the leverage
You are correct OSU and WSU have very little leverage - and are hoping that the PAC stays together - same for the lower level schools at ACC . Big 12 are they solid ?
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 8, 2022 15:18:41 GMT -8
This probably has some merit. For anyone thinking we are about to get an invite to the PAC, this is what the schools in the conference are actively doing. They aren't thinking about SDSU joining, they are thinking about how to leave. The only people that are being forced to think about us are Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State, in that they are terrified they have to join our conference soon. They are looking at all of their options. Obviously if the B1G comes calling everything changes. Until that happens though, PAC12 teams going to the BIG12, or BIG12 teams going to the PAC12, is purely speculation. The BIG12 is the PAC12's equal at this point.Not sure I'd say that. The B12's contract is $25M/program/year starting in 2024, whereas if the current P10 sticks together there's is projected to be closer to $30M/program/year. A stable P10 is worth more than the B12 per Thompson, the former Fox Sports Prez. The only advantage and angle the B12 has is a) the B1G/SEC have no interest in their programs, now or long term, while they may (long term) have interest in 3 P10 programs, and b) because of not having attractive programs they're the safer long term play. The P10 just needs to validate their worth, seeing if they truly are what Thompson projected, and if they do then they need their members to sign their grant of rights. Schools like UO & UW may push for a shorter media deal (i.e. 5-6 vs. 10 years) to minimize any future buyout, but even with that it would give the border schools stability at a higher value than if just the 4 of them jump to the B12. |
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