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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 22:08:22 GMT -8
Crazy. Biden was the favorite. That completely flipped for obvious reasons. Trump was -600 two hours ago. It's flipped more than once, and will likely flip again tomorrow morning. If Arizona holds for Biden, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania AND another state. -170 is still pretty significant, and yes that can change with the wind.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 22:13:04 GMT -8
Trump was -600 two hours ago. It's flipped more than once, and will likely flip again tomorrow morning. If Arizona holds for Biden, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania AND another state. There's other scenarios where he doesn't need Pennsylvania, I believe. I think he would need to win both Wisconsin and Michigan and hold Georgia (which is swinging back towards Biden, per the NYT)
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 22:15:18 GMT -8
Trump was -600 two hours ago. It's flipped more than once, and will likely flip again tomorrow morning. If Arizona holds for Biden, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania AND another state. -170 is still pretty significant, and yes that can change with the wind. It's a 63% probability. The line went from -200 for Biden to -225 to Trump to Trump -600 and then went down to -140 in a blink after Arizona was called by Fox.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 22:18:09 GMT -8
The real unfortunate circumstance here is the GOP looks good to hold on to the Senate. If Biden gets elected, it'll be nothing but gridlock. Not great for America as a whole.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 22:21:58 GMT -8
Wisconsin should be announced within hours as they sift through the early votes.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 22:50:43 GMT -8
Biden gets NE-2 and one critical electoral vote. If he loses PA, but wins Wisconsin and Michigan (holding Arizona)...that 1 vote gets him from 269 to 270.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 23:03:46 GMT -8
Trump's lead in Georgia has shrunk considerably. It was 300,000+, now down to just over 118,000. If Biden wins Georgia...
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 4, 2020 0:30:07 GMT -8
Biden gets NE-2 and one critical electoral vote. If he loses PA, but wins Wisconsin and Michigan (holding Arizona)...that 1 vote gets him from 269 to 270. I could be wrong, but I don't think Biden wins both states.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 4, 2020 0:50:42 GMT -8
Biden gets NE-2 and one critical electoral vote. If he loses PA, but wins Wisconsin and Michigan (holding Arizona)...that 1 vote gets him from 269 to 270. I could be wrong, but I don't think Biden wins both states. But Georgia is very much in play. And if you watched the president talk....what a ridiculous and shameful display. It's not exactly a shock that he said what he did, but it's indefensible and the mark of a dictator. Count all the votes, not the ones that benefit you. Michigan is tightening, Wisconsin is just over 100,000...but Green Bay has not reported any results. Absentee ballots remain in Milwaukee and Kenosha.
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 4, 2020 0:59:30 GMT -8
I could be wrong, but I don't think Biden wins both states. But Georgia is very much in play. And if you watched the president talk....what a ridiculous and shameful display. It's not exactly a shock that he said what he did, but it's indefensible. Yeah, he shouldn't have said that. Nobody's going to find a bunch of random ballots and be able to manufacture them to change the election. No need to stop counting ballots
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 4, 2020 1:40:16 GMT -8
Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin.
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Post by gigglyforshrigley on Nov 4, 2020 5:41:24 GMT -8
The real unfortunate circumstance here is the GOP looks good to hold on to the Senate. If Biden gets elected, it'll be nothing but gridlock. Not great for America as a whole. That's way better for America. Half the country doesn't want whichever candidate is elected so having a sweep is terrible for the country
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 4, 2020 8:06:18 GMT -8
The real unfortunate circumstance here is the GOP looks good to hold on to the Senate. If Biden gets elected, it'll be nothing but gridlock. Not great for America as a whole. That's way better for America. Half the country doesn't want whichever candidate is elected so having a sweep is terrible for the country ...This is truly odd (and wrong).
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Post by gigglyforshrigley on Nov 4, 2020 8:28:56 GMT -8
That's way better for America. Half the country doesn't want whichever candidate is elected so having a sweep is terrible for the country ...This is truly odd (and wrong). How? It forces people to compromise instead of just passing whatever they want
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 4, 2020 8:52:45 GMT -8
...This is truly odd (and wrong). How? It forces people to compromise instead of just passing whatever they want There is no compromise. You don't get it. We have a GOP Senate, a Democrat House and a soon to be Democratic president. It's Obama's term all over again. There will be no justices, no mandate, COVID legislation will be a crawl. McConnell is going to block everything Biden attempts to do in the Senate.
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Post by ptsdthor on Nov 4, 2020 9:20:41 GMT -8
How? It forces people to compromise instead of just passing whatever they want There is no compromise. You don't get it. We have a GOP Senate, a Democrat House and a soon to be Democratic president. It's Obama's term all over again. There will be no justices, no mandate, COVID legislation will be a crawl. McConnell is going to block everything Biden attempts to do in the Senate. Seems you understand it pretty well. You forgot a number of whacky executive orders will be signed that will methodically be challenged and overturned by the courts, kooky treaties will be enjoined but not adopted by the Senate, the military will not be gutted, the SCOTUS will remain leaning conservative, Obamacare will be saved and a legal and an illegal immigration bonanza will occur. And if Joe wins and completes the term without resigning due to mental capacity issues, he will pull a Johnson and not run for re-election (just as he promises). Even if Harris gets the Presidency before his term is out, she will be challenged regardless. I bet the Democrats feel Michelle is there best bet. Scott vs Obama in 2024. Saw some interesting chatter about AZ, so perhaps it does come down to PA?
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 4, 2020 9:33:16 GMT -8
There is no compromise. You don't get it. We have a GOP Senate, a Democrat House and a soon to be Democratic president. It's Obama's term all over again. There will be no justices, no mandate, COVID legislation will be a crawl. McConnell is going to block everything Biden attempts to do in the Senate. Seems you understand it pretty well. You forgot a number of whacky executive orders will be signed that will methodically be challenged and overturned by the courts, kooky treaties will be enjoined but not adopted by the Senate, the military will not be gutted, the SCOTUS will remain leaning conservative, Obamacare will be saved and a legal and an illegal immigration bonanza will occur. And if Joe wins and completes the term without resigning due to mental capacity issues, he will pull a Johnson and not run for re-election (just as he promises). Even if Harris gets the Presidency before his term is out, she will be challenged regardless. I bet the Democrats feel Michelle is there best bet. Scott vs Obama in 2024. Saw some interesting chatter about AZ, so perhaps it does come down to PA? Arizona will go to Biden. Wisconsin is done, their votes are counted. Georgia is likely to go to Biden as well, rendering Pennsylvania meaningless. Despite DeJoy's tempering, Biden looks like a 97% favorite.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 4, 2020 9:53:13 GMT -8
Trump, as expected, has requested a recount in Wisconsin.
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Post by mactec on Nov 4, 2020 9:54:45 GMT -8
The real unfortunate circumstance here is the GOP looks good to hold on to the Senate. If Biden gets elected, it'll be nothing but gridlock. Not great for America as a whole. That's way better for America. Half the country doesn't want whichever candidate is elected so having a sweep is terrible for the country The Senate is more powerful than the Presidency. Having McConnell kill every bill that comes his way is not a good thing for America. Having the party that loses the popular vote by 3,000,000 win the senate is a broken system. ...This is truly odd (and wrong). How? It forces people to compromise instead of just passing whatever they want Can you point to one thing that the Senate has compromised on in the last 10 years? Blocking Supreme Court nominees from Obama, and refusing to vote on hundreds of democrat-backed bills from the house is not "compromising."
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Post by gigglyforshrigley on Nov 4, 2020 10:09:27 GMT -8
That's way better for America. Half the country doesn't want whichever candidate is elected so having a sweep is terrible for the country The Senate is more powerful than the Presidency. Having McConnell kill every bill that comes his way is not a good thing for America. Having the party that loses the popular vote by 3,000,000 win the senate is a broken system. How? It forces people to compromise instead of just passing whatever they want Can you point to one thing that the Senate has compromised on in the last 10 years? Blocking Supreme Court nominees from Obama, and refusing to vote on hundreds of democrat-backed bills from the house is not "compromising." Well the policies that the dems are looking to pass have gotten more and more extreme so I think it's a good thing that those won't pass. At the same time we now have someone who doesn't act like a baby throwing a tempter tantrum at every turn. I think its a win for both sides (the markets certainly think so). If the dems want to win the Senate, be more moderate... not more extreme
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