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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 16:11:08 GMT -8
I voted absentee this year and was pleasantly surprised how quickly my ballot got to me across the country. In Florida Gulf Coast, pickup trucks trailing Trump banners are very numerous, as are pro Trump lawn signs. I can’t see a Biden win here. That's what I'm hearing. Trump wins Florida. Still not great.
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Nov 3, 2020 16:20:47 GMT -8
If Florida is representative of the races today, things are about to get interesting.
The polls in Florida on FiveThirtyEight.com showed Biden with a 2.5 point advantage and RealClearPolitics.com showed a 0.9 Biden advantage. The numbers as I type this are showing Trump with a 2-2.5 point victory in Florida. Trump is doubling his margin of victory in Florida over his 2016 campaign. That means the polls were undercounting Trump support by 3-5%. That is a lot.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 16:29:58 GMT -8
The next update is at 5:30. That's when things will get interesting. I don't think Biden carries, but he doesn't need to.
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Nov 3, 2020 17:38:28 GMT -8
The next update is at 5:30. That's when things will get interesting. I don't think Biden carries, but he doesn't need to. Florida has been called for Trump. It appears I underestimated with a 2% - 2.5% margin of victory. It is looking like it will be closer to a 3% win. The polls undercounted Trump support by 5.5%!!!
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 18:06:50 GMT -8
The next update is at 5:30. That's when things will get interesting. I don't think Biden carries, but he doesn't need to. Florida has been called for Trump. It appears I underestimated with a 2% - 2.5% margin of victory. It is looking like it will be closer to a 3% win. The polls undercounted Trump support by 5.5%!!! Polls, Shmoles. I never consider them.
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 18:08:15 GMT -8
The next update is at 5:30. That's when things will get interesting. I don't think Biden carries, but he doesn't need to. Yes, that's what they say. Biden didn't have to have it, but Trump did.
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Nov 3, 2020 18:34:08 GMT -8
It looks like North Carolina was another big under-count of Trump support. What was projected as a 1.7 point win for Biden is going to be a 1.6 point loss, which is nearly a 3 1/2 point under count of Trump support.
So far I haven't seen a single overestimation of Trump support. It appears to under-counts across the board for Trump support.
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Post by aardvark on Nov 3, 2020 18:47:21 GMT -8
A hundred bucks says I can get us a rainout. Oh my goodness, it looks like a natural disaster.
Or something like that, from the movie Bull Durham, as Fulton County has a broken water pipe, which may delay their voting results until later this week. The most populous county in the state of Georgia.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 19:01:04 GMT -8
Looks like Trump will win re-election. Congratulations to him.
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 20:44:43 GMT -8
Looks like Trump will win re-election. Congratulations to him. Not sure. Arizona went to Biden, so I believe he needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania? It'll be close.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 21:03:44 GMT -8
Looks like Trump will win re-election. Congratulations to him. Not sure. Arizona went to Biden, so I believe he needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania? It'll be close. He went from -600 to basically right back to a dead heat. Arizona flipping blue was a huge catalyst to that. There are a number of scenarios in play - One involving a 269-269 tie.
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Post by aardvark on Nov 3, 2020 21:26:04 GMT -8
Looks like Trump will win re-election. Congratulations to him. Not sure. Arizona went to Biden, so I believe he needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania? It'll be close. Trump is leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (already called?) and Georgia. If he holds those leads, it's over.
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Post by aardvark on Nov 3, 2020 21:29:18 GMT -8
At 9 pm. Bovada has Trump -170, and Biden +130.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 21:31:53 GMT -8
At 9 pm. Bovada has Trump -170, and Biden +130. BetOnline has Trump -115, Biden -105. The New York Times has flipped the needle in Georgia towards Biden, which would be astounding. Important to note that Wisconsin has not counted *ANY* early ballots. They estimated they will be done by the morning hours. Pennsylvania is the same. Biden's edge in the mail-in ballots in PA is thought to be substantial. Also important to note - If Pennsylvania is within half a point, an automatic recount is triggered.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 21:35:24 GMT -8
At 9 pm. Bovada has Trump -170, and Biden +130. BetOnline has Trump -115, Biden -105. The New York Times has flipped the needle in Georgia towards Biden, which would be astounding. Important to note that Wisconsin has not counted *ANY* early ballots. They estimated they will be done by the morning hours. Pennsylvania is the same. Biden's edge in the mail-in ballots in PA is thought to be substantial. Also important to note - If Pennsylvania is within half a point, an automatic recount is triggered. Rumblings that Arizona was called prematurely....
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 22:03:31 GMT -8
At 9 pm. Bovada has Trump -170, and Biden +130. Crazy. Biden was the favorite. That completely flipped for obvious reasons.
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 22:04:44 GMT -8
Sportsbook.ag has Trump at -175.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 3, 2020 22:05:17 GMT -8
At 9 pm. Bovada has Trump -170, and Biden +130. Crazy. Biden was the favorite. That completely flipped for obvious reasons. Trump was -600 two hours ago. It's flipped more than once, and will likely flip again tomorrow morning. If Arizona holds for Biden, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania AND another state.
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 22:06:38 GMT -8
At 9 pm. Bovada has Trump -170, and Biden +130. BetOnline has Trump -115, Biden -105. The New York Times has flipped the needle in Georgia towards Biden, which would be astounding. Important to note that Wisconsin has not counted *ANY* early ballots. They estimated they will be done by the morning hours. Pennsylvania is the same. Biden's edge in the mail-in ballots in PA is thought to be substantial. Also important to note - If Pennsylvania is within half a point, an automatic recount is triggered. Sure, that could possibly happen, but I don't know how much I would trust what the New York Times perceives. They're very biased.
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Post by johneaztec on Nov 3, 2020 22:07:34 GMT -8
Crazy. Biden was the favorite. That completely flipped for obvious reasons. Trump was -600 two hours ago. It's flipped more than once, and will likely flip again tomorrow morning. If Arizona holds for Biden, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania AND another state. There's other scenarios where he doesn't need Pennsylvania, I believe.
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