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Post by namssa on May 4, 2020 20:07:08 GMT -8
I think we all realize the dilemma. It really is you're screwed if you do, you're screwed if you don't. Shut everything down and the economy tanks. However, if we open things up, it will be like putting gas on a burning fire. At this point, we have to concede most people will eventually get it, so how do we slow down that transition while still keeping the economy going? I would be more positive if the US was an actual adult country. But we clearly aren't. We can't even get people to wear masks to help prevent spreading it. Hell our president won't even wear it as a sign of the importance of wearing them. Look at the Asian countries. EVERYONE has one on whenever they leave the house. EVERYONE. Add in how unhealthy and obese our people are and you can expect a lot of deaths coming.
We are going to cross 70,000 deaths tomorrow. It took about 6 weeks to get there (there were 61 deaths on March 15). We are averaging over 2,000 deaths a day (we had over 2,900) yesterday. And that is with the virus in its early stages and with the majority of the country on lock down. How will that grow once everyone goes back to work, stores and restaurants? It will increase of course. Also consider 6 weeks ago maybe 200,000 to 300,000 people had it (3,200 confirmed cases on March 15, but it was probably 100 times that). Now although statistics say 1.2 Mil has it its probably closer to 5-10 times that. So what happens when 6-12 million people with the virus now go out to an open society? Gas on fire.
We will have 130,000 deaths by the end of June and maybe as much as 300,000 by the end of August at the rate of 2,000 a day. But again that is assuming we stay at 2,000 a day. Now with everyone returning to society I can see that number jumping to by a few thousand. I really feel bad for the doctors and nurses who are already having a tough time about to get it even harder... and for months and months and months.
Now I get we can't all be on lock down forever, and I think we need to do our best to balance the economy and this virus which does mean smartly opening things up. The problem is, we aren't smart. So it'll all be open and we'll have 500,000 dead by the end of the year... if we are lucky.
Oh and forget about sports. With everyone going back out and the deaths increasing, zero chance there will be large gatherings. The pros might be able to swing it with the money they have but colleges won't.
I hope I'm wrong... but I don't think I am.
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Post by aztecryan on May 4, 2020 20:08:35 GMT -8
Yes there are some people who do evil things But who in your mind- are the people that are hoping that things get even worse - more deaths ? I didn't necessarily state deaths. But I am absolutely positive there are wealthy or currently well off people on the left and in the media hoping the economy fails while they push an agenda to spite and blame the President. That's not a good thing for anyone if the economy crashes. And it's on the brink. Which is assuredly why the president is encouraging states to open up, dangerously or otherwise.
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Post by aztecryan on May 4, 2020 20:15:20 GMT -8
I think we all realize the dilemma. It really is you're screwed if you do, you're screwed if you don't. Shut everything down and the economy tanks. However, if we open things up, it will be like putting gas on a burning fire. At this point, we have to concede most people will eventually get it, so how do we slow down that transition while still keeping the economy going? I would be more positive if the US was an actual adult country. But we clearly aren't. We can't even get people to wear masks to help prevent spreading it. Hell our president won't even wear it as a sign of the importance of wearing them. Look at the Asian countries. EVERYONE has one on whenever they leave the house. EVERYONE. Add in how unhealthy and obese our people are and you can expect a lot of deaths coming. We are going to cross 70,000 deaths tomorrow. It took about 6 weeks to get there (there were 61 deaths on March 15). We are averaging over 2,000 deaths a day (we had over 2,900) yesterday. And that is with the virus in its early stages and with the majority of the country on lock down. How will that grow once everyone goes back to work, stores and restaurants? It will increase of course. Also consider 6 weeks ago maybe 200,000 to 300,000 people had it (3,200 confirmed cases on March 15, but it was probably 100 times that). Now although statistics say 1.2 Mil has it its probably closer to 5-10 times that. So what happens when 6-12 million people with the virus now go out to an open society? Gas on fire. We will have 130,000 deaths by the end of June and maybe as much as 300,000 by the end of August at the rate of 2,000 a day. But again that is assuming we stay at 2,000 a day. Now with everyone returning to society I can see that number jumping to by a few thousand. I really feel bad for the doctors and nurses who are already having a tough time about to get it even harder... and for months and months and months. Now I get we can't all be on lock down forever, and I think we need to do our best to balance the economy and this virus which does mean smartly opening things up. The problem is, we aren't smart. So it'll all be open and we'll have 500,000 dead by the end of the year... if we are lucky. Oh and forget about sports. With everyone going back out and the deaths increasing, zero chance there will be large gatherings. The pros might be able to swing it with the money they have but colleges won't. I hope I'm wrong... but I don't think I am. In times of crisis, people will look to leadership they can depend on. One reason why Bush's approval rating skyrocketed after 9/11. People are looking for a response, a measure of hope, wisdom and guidance in times of peril. Culturally, we are selfish. South Korea was able to contain and crush because they have excellent leadership, a brilliant cluster tracking program and a society devoid of ego. It would be nice to look for sports as a sanctuary to get through this as well, but that's unrealistic at this current point in time. Gas on a fire is a great analogy. The unfortunate politicization of the issue has prevented in some circles what this should really be about : Science and medicine. Instead, it's a propaganda war and an epic failure of leadership at the highest level. At this point, they need to get out in front of a potential second wave with a national rollout strategy. Still waiting on that from the powers that be.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2020 20:17:42 GMT -8
I didn't necessarily state deaths. But I am absolutely positive there are wealthy or currently well off people on the left and in the media hoping the economy fails while they push an agenda to spite and blame the President. That's not a good thing for anyone if the economy crashes. And it's on the brink. Which is assuredly why the president is encouraging states to open up, dangerously or otherwise. That's weird, my state is opening up under extreme caution with a whole lot of rules. Businesses have to abide by a lot in order to open. There's over 11 + pages for restaurants alone. It's going to be different but it's has to happen. So we shall see.
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Post by aztecryan on May 4, 2020 20:35:48 GMT -8
Which is assuredly why the president is encouraging states to open up, dangerously or otherwise. That's weird, my state is opening up under extreme caution with a whole lot of rules. Businesses have to abide by a lot in order to open. There's over 11 + pages for restaurants alone. It's going to be different but it's has to happen. So we shall see. With national cases still rising (outside of a handful of eastern states), opening now is a delicate situation, to say the least. Much of the rules and regulations will be policed by nobody, left to the business owners themselves. Some states can get away with it, others like Georgiw and Florida, not so much.
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Post by mojo56 on May 4, 2020 21:31:33 GMT -8
I think we all realize the dilemma. It really is you're screwed if you do, you're screwed if you don't. Shut everything down and the economy tanks. However, if we open things up, it will be like putting gas on a burning fire. At this point, we have to concede most people will eventually get it, so how do we slow down that transition while still keeping the economy going? I would be more positive if the US was an actual adult country. But we clearly aren't. We can't even get people to wear masks to help prevent spreading it. Hell our president won't even wear it as a sign of the importance of wearing them. Look at the Asian countries. EVERYONE has one on whenever they leave the house. EVERYONE. Add in how unhealthy and obese our people are and you can expect a lot of deaths coming. We are going to cross 70,000 deaths tomorrow. It took about 6 weeks to get there (there were 61 deaths on March 15). We are averaging over 2,000 deaths a day (we had over 2,900) yesterday. And that is with the virus in its early stages and with the majority of the country on lock down. How will that grow once everyone goes back to work, stores and restaurants? It will increase of course. Also consider 6 weeks ago maybe 200,000 to 300,000 people had it (3,200 confirmed cases on March 15, but it was probably 100 times that). Now although statistics say 1.2 Mil has it its probably closer to 5-10 times that. So what happens when 6-12 million people with the virus now go out to an open society? Gas on fire. We will have 130,000 deaths by the end of June and maybe as much as 300,000 by the end of August at the rate of 2,000 a day. But again that is assuming we stay at 2,000 a day. Now with everyone returning to society I can see that number jumping to by a few thousand. I really feel bad for the doctors and nurses who are already having a tough time about to get it even harder... and for months and months and months. Now I get we can't all be on lock down forever, and I think we need to do our best to balance the economy and this virus which does mean smartly opening things up. The problem is, we aren't smart. So it'll all be open and we'll have 500,000 dead by the end of the year... if we are lucky. Oh and forget about sports. With everyone going back out and the deaths increasing, zero chance there will be large gatherings. The pros might be able to swing it with the money they have but colleges won't. I hope I'm wrong... but I don't think I am. Where are you getting your #'s from? According to Worldomoter deaths in the USA yesterday were 1,153 not 2,900+. In fact the highest day so far was 2,683 on April 21st. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Post by AztecPhil on May 4, 2020 22:00:59 GMT -8
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Post by namssa on May 4, 2020 22:10:00 GMT -8
I think we all realize the dilemma. It really is you're screwed if you do, you're screwed if you don't. Shut everything down and the economy tanks. However, if we open things up, it will be like putting gas on a burning fire. At this point, we have to concede most people will eventually get it, so how do we slow down that transition while still keeping the economy going? I would be more positive if the US was an actual adult country. But we clearly aren't. We can't even get people to wear masks to help prevent spreading it. Hell our president won't even wear it as a sign of the importance of wearing them. Look at the Asian countries. EVERYONE has one on whenever they leave the house. EVERYONE. Add in how unhealthy and obese our people are and you can expect a lot of deaths coming. We are going to cross 70,000 deaths tomorrow. It took about 6 weeks to get there (there were 61 deaths on March 15). We are averaging over 2,000 deaths a day (we had over 2,900) yesterday. And that is with the virus in its early stages and with the majority of the country on lock down. How will that grow once everyone goes back to work, stores and restaurants? It will increase of course. Also consider 6 weeks ago maybe 200,000 to 300,000 people had it (3,200 confirmed cases on March 15, but it was probably 100 times that). Now although statistics say 1.2 Mil has it its probably closer to 5-10 times that. So what happens when 6-12 million people with the virus now go out to an open society? Gas on fire. We will have 130,000 deaths by the end of June and maybe as much as 300,000 by the end of August at the rate of 2,000 a day. But again that is assuming we stay at 2,000 a day. Now with everyone returning to society I can see that number jumping to by a few thousand. I really feel bad for the doctors and nurses who are already having a tough time about to get it even harder... and for months and months and months. Now I get we can't all be on lock down forever, and I think we need to do our best to balance the economy and this virus which does mean smartly opening things up. The problem is, we aren't smart. So it'll all be open and we'll have 500,000 dead by the end of the year... if we are lucky. Oh and forget about sports. With everyone going back out and the deaths increasing, zero chance there will be large gatherings. The pros might be able to swing it with the money they have but colleges won't. I hope I'm wrong... but I don't think I am. Where are you getting your #'s from? According to Worldomoter deaths in the USA yesterday were 1,153 not 2,900+. In fact the highest day so far was 2,683 on April 21st. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8282167/US-deadliest-24-hours-lockdown-restrictions-ease-America.html1 day ago deadliest 24 hours at 2909 reported from the WHO. And if you take 2909 and add 1153 you get 4062 for the past 2 days. Or about 2000 deaths per day. Or how about we take the last 20 days. On April 12 there were 20,608 deaths. On May 4 there were 67,682 deaths. 67,682-20,608 = 47,074 deaths in the past 20 days which is 2,354 deaths a day.
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Post by aztecking on May 5, 2020 6:40:37 GMT -8
Says who? You? I’d believe individual states reports of their deaths over an inept CDC any day of the week.
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Post by mojo56 on May 5, 2020 7:04:58 GMT -8
If you go into the table from the WHO they list total deaths for the USA at 55,337 and the daily change at 2,909. Since most sources have the USA closer to 70,000 total deaths you can safely say that the WHO numbers are worthless. Even the Daily Mail article says: "It is not clear how the WHO measures its data but DailyMail.com has reached out for comment." There are definitely discrepancies in the way deaths are reported. Not all deaths are actually from the day they are reported on. There has been a trend where Sunday and Monday have had reduced numbers and then there is a spike on Tuesday. We'll see how it goes today but the last 4 days on Worldometer have been 1,897...1691...1153...1324. There is no way 2,909 is anywhere close to reality. Addressing another point from your original post: "that is with the virus in its early stages". The virus has been in US since at least late January. We are not in the early stages. The state with by far the highest death rate, New York, has already seen it's infection rate roll over and begin to decline. Florida has also seen it's infection rate decline. There is absolutely no evidence that we will continue to see 2,000+ deaths a day for months. Once the infection rate declines the death rate will decline along with it, trailing it by a 3-4 weeks. www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/The bottom line is your numbers are WAY more pessimistic than any credible forecast. The IHME model, which was way off with their initial projections (over 1 million dead), now has 'only' 134,000+ deaths by August. covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2020 7:53:05 GMT -8
If you go into the table from the WHO they list total deaths for the USA at 55,337 and the daily change at 2,909. Since most sources have the USA closer to 70,000 total deaths you can safely say that the WHO numbers are worthless. Even the Daily Mail article says: "It is not clear how the WHO measures its data but DailyMail.com has reached out for comment." There are definitely discrepancies in the way deaths are reported. Not all deaths are actually from the day they are reported on. There has been a trend where Sunday and Monday have had reduced numbers and then there is a spike on Tuesday. We'll see how it goes today but the last 4 days on Worldometer have been 1,897...1691...1153...1324. There is no way 2,909 is anywhere close to reality. Addressing another point from your original post: "that is with the virus in its early stages". The virus has been in US since at least late January. We are not in the early stages. The state with by far the highest death rate, New York, has already seen it's infection rate roll over and begin to decline. Florida has also seen it's infection rate decline. There is absolutely no evidence that we will continue to see 2,000+ deaths a day for months. Once the infection rate declines the death rate will decline along with it, trailing it by a 3-4 weeks. www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/The bottom line is your numbers are WAY more pessimistic than any credible forecast. The IHME model, which was way off with their initial projections (over 1 million dead), now has 'only' 134,000+ deaths by August. covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america No one should trust what The W.H.O. says after all the information that has come out regarding that corupt organization. Here's an interesting read regarding Covid-19 numbers. www.mediamatters.org/coronavirus-covid-19/oan-host-claims-covid-19-death-count-inflated-and-hospitals-are-fudgingHere are some pieces from that article in case the people who will blast this don't want to read it. "Alright, so what does it say? Well, this piece of genius says, under the question "should COVID-19 be reported on the death certificate only when a confirmed test is given?" The answer is stunning. It says that COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate when it is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. That's right. Assumed. In other words, the doctor does not know for sure. And that's where the contributed portion is relevant. Patient comes in, who may have chronic lung disease, but has come down with symptoms of the Wuhan coronavirus. Person dies. There's no autopsy. Just a death certificate filled out by the doctor who is following the guidelines as prescribed by the National Center for Health Statistics. So the doctor puts down "Cause of death: COVID-19" when it easily could —should — have been the pulmonary issue." "So why, why? Why the liberal guidance on labeling death by COVID-19? Answer: We're dealing with charter members of the Washington D.C. swamp who are attempting to justify the radical anti-liberty guidance emanating from the CDC."
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Post by namssa on May 5, 2020 8:06:59 GMT -8
If you go into the table from the WHO they list total deaths for the USA at 55,337 and the daily change at 2,909. Since most sources have the USA closer to 70,000 total deaths you can safely say that the WHO numbers are worthless. Even the Daily Mail article says: "It is not clear how the WHO measures its data but DailyMail.com has reached out for comment." There are definitely discrepancies in the way deaths are reported. Not all deaths are actually from the day they are reported on. There has been a trend where Sunday and Monday have had reduced numbers and then there is a spike on Tuesday. We'll see how it goes today but the last 4 days on Worldometer have been 1,897...1691...1153...1324. There is no way 2,909 is anywhere close to reality. Addressing another point from your original post: "that is with the virus in its early stages". The virus has been in US since at least late January. We are not in the early stages. The state with by far the highest death rate, New York, has already seen it's infection rate roll over and begin to decline. Florida has also seen it's infection rate decline. There is absolutely no evidence that we will continue to see 2,000+ deaths a day for months. Once the infection rate declines the death rate will decline along with it, trailing it by a 3-4 weeks. www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/The bottom line is your numbers are WAY more pessimistic than any credible forecast. The IHME model, which was way off with their initial projections (over 1 million dead), now has 'only' 134,000+ deaths by August. covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america I think what you are saying is fair. And we can argue the numbers and where they are coming from. But as you said death rates are trailing infections by about 3-4 weeks. Why are the death numbers declining right now? Because we've mitigated spread with a lock down. What happens when you release the population? That mitigation diminishes and death rates begin to climb. So 3-4 weeks from now death rates will begin to rise again. As far as the IHME model which shows 134,000+ deaths, the IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak — an assumption that has not been borne out. The IHME model said we would be around 60,000 deaths less than two weeks ago, it got adjusted to 72,000 on April 29 (which we will pass in 2-3 days so they were WAAAAY off), and now again readjusted to 134,000. I don't think my forecasts are WAY more pessimistic. Here are all the major models. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/As you can see the models show that by May 30 (25 days away and at the beginning of summer) death rates would be between 93K to 111K with a potential high of 173K. Again that is by May 30. And with the release of people from lockdown, May 30 would be about 3-4 weeks from now when deaths would then begin to rise. So you could say my forecasts is optimistic.
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Post by aztecryan on May 5, 2020 10:46:10 GMT -8
If you go into the table from the WHO they list total deaths for the USA at 55,337 and the daily change at 2,909. Since most sources have the USA closer to 70,000 total deaths you can safely say that the WHO numbers are worthless. Even the Daily Mail article says: "It is not clear how the WHO measures its data but DailyMail.com has reached out for comment." There are definitely discrepancies in the way deaths are reported. Not all deaths are actually from the day they are reported on. There has been a trend where Sunday and Monday have had reduced numbers and then there is a spike on Tuesday. We'll see how it goes today but the last 4 days on Worldometer have been 1,897...1691...1153...1324. There is no way 2,909 is anywhere close to reality. Addressing another point from your original post: "that is with the virus in its early stages". The virus has been in US since at least late January. We are not in the early stages. The state with by far the highest death rate, New York, has already seen it's infection rate roll over and begin to decline. Florida has also seen it's infection rate decline. There is absolutely no evidence that we will continue to see 2,000+ deaths a day for months. Once the infection rate declines the death rate will decline along with it, trailing it by a 3-4 weeks. www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/The bottom line is your numbers are WAY more pessimistic than any credible forecast. The IHME model, which was way off with their initial projections (over 1 million dead), now has 'only' 134,000+ deaths by August. covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america I think what you are saying is fair. And we can argue the numbers and where they are coming from. But as you said death rates are trailing infections by about 3-4 weeks. Why are the death numbers declining right now? Because we've mitigated spread with a lock down. What happens when you release the population? That mitigation diminishes and death rates begin to climb. So 3-4 weeks from now death rates will begin to rise again. As far as the IHME model which shows 134,000+ deaths, the IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak — an assumption that has not been borne out. The IHME model said we would be around 60,000 deaths less than two weeks ago, it got adjusted to 72,000 on April 29 (which we will pass in 2-3 days so they were WAAAAY off), and now again readjusted to 134,000. I don't think my forecasts are WAY more pessimistic. Here are all the major models. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/As you can see the models show that by May 30 (25 days away and at the beginning of summer) death rates would be between 93K to 111K with a potential high of 173K. Again that is by May 30. And with the release of people from lockdown, May 30 would be about 3-4 weeks from now when deaths would then begin to rise. So you could say my forecasts is optimistic. Modeling dependent on human behavior and a ton of independent variables is going to be extremely, extremely fluid. Most infectious disease experts are indicating 100,000 deaths in this wave is likely on the low end of the scale. It's going to take serious time to connect the pieces as to other health complications.
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Post by aztecryan on May 5, 2020 15:35:31 GMT -8
Dismantling the task force as the administration indicated today while cases are still escalating is....troubling. I guess there goes the national rollout strategy.
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Post by biotec on May 5, 2020 18:33:07 GMT -8
I took my dog on a walk throughout the neighborhood last night as I always do. I counted three different houses having parties. From the sounds, it was handfuls, no more than 2 or more couples at each house, but it was clearly not just family members. People are starting to come out quarantine, whether they're getting official permission or not.
I have my own belief about this virus: We're all going to get it and either it has your name on its list or it doesn't. There is no sense in hiding from it when ICU bed and ventilator resources are readily available. I'd volunteer to be exposed to the virus now since there are enough ICU beds and ventilators in case things go south. Those are the key things to watch. If either of those resources start creeping up towards full capacity, then it's time to go back to hiding, preferably with a good supply of toilet paper and beer, not necessarily in that order.
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Post by aztecryan on May 5, 2020 18:47:51 GMT -8
I took my dog on a walk throughout the neighborhood last night as I always do. I counted three different houses having parties. From the sounds, it was handfuls, no more than 2 or more couples at each house, but it was clearly not just family members. People are starting to come out quarantine, whether they're getting official permission or not. I have my own belief about this virus: We're all going to get it and either it has your name on its list or it doesn't. There is no sense in hiding from it when ICU bed and ventilator resources are readily available. I'd volunteer to be exposed to the virus now since there are enough ICU beds and ventilators in case things go south. Those are the key things to watch. If either of those resources start creeping up towards full capacity, then it's time to go back to hiding, preferably with a good supply of toilet paper and beer, not necessarily in that order. Wow.
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Post by AztecPhil on May 7, 2020 16:42:30 GMT -8
Says who? You? I’d believe individual states reports of their deaths over an inept CDC any day of the week. I don't want to burst your bubble, however when the history books refer to this pandemic, they will use the CDC's data nd not something from Dick and Janes book.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2020 8:15:33 GMT -8
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Post by aardvark on May 8, 2020 8:31:36 GMT -8
Just remember--this is NOT political.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2020 8:43:25 GMT -8
Just remember--this is NOT political. No, this shouldn't be political. It's about the United States of America coming together and not letting this virus win and destroy our country. There needs to be a lot healing and lot of middle ground issues to be addressed in the coming years. And the American people need to be a top priority while doing so.
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