|
Post by aztecfred on May 4, 2020 8:15:06 GMT -8
Just in California---going back over the past 5 (pre-Wuhan) years---we averaged about 750 deaths PER DAY, from ALL causes (murder, age, traffic and other accidents, suicides, heart disease, flu, etc.). Has anyone seen the number THIS year? Has that average gone up? Has it stayed flat? I don't know, can't find the answer. Article in UT today about average deaths in SD in last 4 months compared to last 3 yrs. Seemed it was up some this yr but, not necessarily by much over last 3 or 4. U can check it out as I don't remember all the details.
|
|
|
Post by longtimesdsufan on May 4, 2020 8:17:14 GMT -8
Just in California---going back over the past 5 (pre-Wuhan) years---we averaged about 750 deaths PER DAY, from ALL causes (murder, age, traffic and other accidents, suicides, heart disease, flu, etc.). Has anyone seen the number THIS year? Has that average gone up? Has it stayed flat? I don't know, can't find the answer. I don't know the answer for California. But Economic history tells us that all these numbers should go down. It also tells us that environmental pollution should go down.
|
|
|
Post by zollner on May 4, 2020 8:28:21 GMT -8
Two Trillion dollars with a press of a button? Money out of thin air. All of you on this board how does that effect the dollars in your bank account right now? Can you say inflation? A hidden tax on your income that makes your money worth less. How many people are out of work? This will be financial Armageddon on the middle class.
How will this two trillion dollars be paid back to the 12 private banks that make up the Federal Reserve System? What is fractional reserve banking?
Educate yourselves on how the financial system works in this country and in the world. Then you might come to the` realization of how all this works.
What part of this arrangement is the biggest money maker for the private central banks? When was the last time we were not at war? That was a hint to the answer to the last question.
Want to buy stocks in these private central banks like the Federal Reserve Bank. Sorry but stocks can only be purchased by certain people and you aren't one of them.
|
|
|
Post by AzTex on May 4, 2020 9:26:17 GMT -8
So I'll ask this again... What if they NEVER come up with an effective vaccine? We can't all hide at home forever. The economy and society would completely collapse. It would be far worse than COVID-19. How long can we go until that collapse? Who knows? A couple more months? 5 or 6 months? A year?? But what if that vaccine never comes? Or what if it takes an unreasonable amount of time to be developed (2-3 years or more)? Are the people who are saying, "No sports until a vaccine," willing to give up sports and ANY human interaction for the rest of their lives? Even 2-3 years?? Doubtful. I'm hopeful that we'll see a vaccine by early next year, but I'm no expert and I have no idea how likely that is. I'm not willing to stay locked up at home, with no interaction with other people for a year or more. At a certain point we have to say, "Here's how we deal with it, here's how we minimize the risk," and get on with life. And life in most countries, especially this one, includes sports. Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders.
California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215).
No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible.
This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk.
Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
|
|
|
Post by uwphoto on May 4, 2020 9:43:24 GMT -8
So I'll ask this again... What if they NEVER come up with an effective vaccine? We can't all hide at home forever. The economy and society would completely collapse. It would be far worse than COVID-19. How long can we go until that collapse? Who knows? A couple more months? 5 or 6 months? A year?? But what if that vaccine never comes? Or what if it takes an unreasonable amount of time to be developed (2-3 years or more)? Are the people who are saying, "No sports until a vaccine," willing to give up sports and ANY human interaction for the rest of their lives? Even 2-3 years?? Doubtful. I'm hopeful that we'll see a vaccine by early next year, but I'm no expert and I have no idea how likely that is. I'm not willing to stay locked up at home, with no interaction with other people for a year or more. At a certain point we have to say, "Here's how we deal with it, here's how we minimize the risk," and get on with life. And life in most countries, especially this one, includes sports. Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders.
California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215).
No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible.
This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk.
Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
$#!+! I missed the cut off by 1 year...I'm fugged😭
|
|
|
Post by zurac315 on May 4, 2020 9:57:32 GMT -8
So I'll ask this again... What if they NEVER come up with an effective vaccine? We can't all hide at home forever. The economy and society would completely collapse. It would be far worse than COVID-19. How long can we go until that collapse? Who knows? A couple more months? 5 or 6 months? A year?? But what if that vaccine never comes? Or what if it takes an unreasonable amount of time to be developed (2-3 years or more)? Are the people who are saying, "No sports until a vaccine," willing to give up sports and ANY human interaction for the rest of their lives? Even 2-3 years?? Doubtful. I'm hopeful that we'll see a vaccine by early next year, but I'm no expert and I have no idea how likely that is. I'm not willing to stay locked up at home, with no interaction with other people for a year or more. At a certain point we have to say, "Here's how we deal with it, here's how we minimize the risk," and get on with life. And life in most countries, especially this one, includes sports. Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders. California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215). No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible. This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk. Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
So, let the youngsters go play at the beach and have the oldsters hide away so as not to contract the virus from the thoughtless young spreaders. Nice. Good strategy. That will lead to more American deaths caused by the virus in a shorter period of time than Americans were killed in combat during World War II.
|
|
|
Post by bnastyaztecs on May 4, 2020 10:34:53 GMT -8
So I'll ask this again... What if they NEVER come up with an effective vaccine? We can't all hide at home forever. The economy and society would completely collapse. It would be far worse than COVID-19. How long can we go until that collapse? Who knows? A couple more months? 5 or 6 months? A year?? But what if that vaccine never comes? Or what if it takes an unreasonable amount of time to be developed (2-3 years or more)? Are the people who are saying, "No sports until a vaccine," willing to give up sports and ANY human interaction for the rest of their lives? Even 2-3 years?? Doubtful. I'm hopeful that we'll see a vaccine by early next year, but I'm no expert and I have no idea how likely that is. I'm not willing to stay locked up at home, with no interaction with other people for a year or more. At a certain point we have to say, "Here's how we deal with it, here's how we minimize the risk," and get on with life. And life in most countries, especially this one, includes sports. Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders. California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215). No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible. This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk. Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
Everyone is subject to checking out of this world due to this virus...older and disabled are just the low hanging fruit...being young and healthy does not immune you to the virus or spreading it: Young and Middle-Aged People, Barely Sick with Covid-19, Are Dying of Strokes"Jabbour and his co-author Eytan Raz, an assistant professor of neuroradiology at NYU Langone, said that strokes in covid-19 patients challenge conventional thinking. “We are used to thinking of 60 as a young patient when it comes to large vessel occlusions,” Raz said of the deadliest strokes. “We have never seen so many in their 50s, 40s and late 30s.” Raz wondered whether they are seeing more young patients because they are more resistant than the elderly to the respiratory distress caused by covid-19: “So they survive the lung side, and in time develop other issues.” www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/Younger Adults are Getting Seriously Sick and Ending Up in the Hospital Because of the Coronavirus, and It's Alarming Doctors"The shock of finding otherwise healthy people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s in the hospital severely ill with COVID-19 has been a common refrain in Business Insider's conversations with doctors on the front lines. Other viral outbreaks, especially the flu, tend to hit the youngest and oldest Americans the hardest." www.businessinsider.com/non-elderly-americans-are-getting-severely-ill-with-covid-19-2020-4
|
|
|
Post by AzTex on May 4, 2020 10:56:24 GMT -8
Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders.
California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215).
No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible.
This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk.
Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
$#!+! I missed the cut off by 1 year...I'm fugged😭 Not positive which cut off you missed, but I'd guess it's the 65+. Be glad you only missed it by a year. I missed it by 10!
|
|
|
Post by uwphoto on May 4, 2020 10:58:08 GMT -8
Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders. California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215). No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible. This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk. Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
Everyone is subject to checking out of this world due to this virus...older and disabled are just the low hanging fruit...being young and healthy does not immune you to the virus or spreading it: Young and Middle-Aged People, Barely Sick with Covid-19, Are Dying of Strokes"Jabbour and his co-author Eytan Raz, an assistant professor of neuroradiology at NYU Langone, said that strokes in covid-19 patients challenge conventional thinking. “We are used to thinking of 60 as a young patient when it comes to large vessel occlusions,” Raz said of the deadliest strokes. “We have never seen so many in their 50s, 40s and late 30s.” Raz wondered whether they are seeing more young patients because they are more resistant than the elderly to the respiratory distress caused by covid-19: “So they survive the lung side, and in time develop other issues.” www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/Younger Adults are Getting Seriously Sick and Ending Up in the Hospital Because of the Coronavirus, and It's Alarming Doctors"The shock of finding otherwise healthy people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s in the hospital severely ill with COVID-19 has been a common refrain in Business Insider's conversations with doctors on the front lines. Other viral outbreaks, especially the flu, tend to hit the youngest and oldest Americans the hardest." www.businessinsider.com/non-elderly-americans-are-getting-severely-ill-with-covid-19-2020-4Common man! This is all a hoax and an effort by the tyrannical government to control us! Just look at the mensas protesting in Michigan...or the Bundys in Idaho! Bundy claims, we may be shot in the back of the head and thrown in mass graves like during the holocaust! 🤪 We may be doomed when 25% of the US population is as dumb as a rock...Idiocracy lives...
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on May 4, 2020 10:58:46 GMT -8
Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders. California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215). No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible. This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk. Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
Everyone is subject to checking out of this world due to this virus...older and disabled are just the low hanging fruit...being young and healthy does not immune you to the virus or spreading it: Young and Middle-Aged People, Barely Sick with Covid-19, Are Dying of Strokes"Jabbour and his co-author Eytan Raz, an assistant professor of neuroradiology at NYU Langone, said that strokes in covid-19 patients challenge conventional thinking. “We are used to thinking of 60 as a young patient when it comes to large vessel occlusions,” Raz said of the deadliest strokes. “We have never seen so many in their 50s, 40s and late 30s.” Raz wondered whether they are seeing more young patients because they are more resistant than the elderly to the respiratory distress caused by covid-19: “So they survive the lung side, and in time develop other issues.” www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/Younger Adults are Getting Seriously Sick and Ending Up in the Hospital Because of the Coronavirus, and It's Alarming Doctors"The shock of finding otherwise healthy people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s in the hospital severely ill with COVID-19 has been a common refrain in Business Insider's conversations with doctors on the front lines. Other viral outbreaks, especially the flu, tend to hit the youngest and oldest Americans the hardest." www.businessinsider.com/non-elderly-americans-are-getting-severely-ill-with-covid-19-2020-4Most of the people who are in the "overreaction" category only see two clear outcomes : Death and recovery. The problem is that many of the people who do recover end up with permanent lung damage and other serious issues as a result of being infected. Life-altering on a permanent scale, even if you survive. The fact that we haven't made the connections to other health issues yet (strokes would imply far more than just respiratory involvement) means we are still battling uphill at this point to connect all the dots.
|
|
|
Post by longtimesdsufan on May 4, 2020 11:03:56 GMT -8
So I'll ask this again... What if they NEVER come up with an effective vaccine? We can't all hide at home forever. The economy and society would completely collapse. It would be far worse than COVID-19. How long can we go until that collapse? Who knows? A couple more months? 5 or 6 months? A year?? But what if that vaccine never comes? Or what if it takes an unreasonable amount of time to be developed (2-3 years or more)? Are the people who are saying, "No sports until a vaccine," willing to give up sports and ANY human interaction for the rest of their lives? Even 2-3 years?? Doubtful. I'm hopeful that we'll see a vaccine by early next year, but I'm no expert and I have no idea how likely that is. I'm not willing to stay locked up at home, with no interaction with other people for a year or more. At a certain point we have to say, "Here's how we deal with it, here's how we minimize the risk," and get on with life. And life in most countries, especially this one, includes sports. Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders. California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215). No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible. This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk. Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
[/q xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Before 911 $5.8 T Before Bank Bailout $9.0 add of $3.2 T After bailout, economic stumulus and before Trump $18.15 Add of $9.1T before Covin 19 $22.8 Business tax break add of $4.65 FYI defense spending went up $.2 per year Curent estimate for 2021 $25.3
|
|
|
Post by moctezumaii on May 4, 2020 11:14:44 GMT -8
Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders. California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215). No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible. This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk. Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
So, let the youngsters go play at the beach and have the oldsters hide away so as not to contract the virus from the thoughtless young spreaders. Nice. Good strategy. That will lead to more American deaths caused by the virus in a shorter period of time than Americans were killed in combat during World War II. The hashtag making the rounds amongst the young is #BoomerRemover. The notion is to get infected and then pass it to a boomer to 'clean things up'. The young stand to do quite well with the virus (unless it mutates like the Spanish Flu's 2nd wave, of course). This will likely introduce a new world order. And Gen X will get screwed again. www.newsweek.com/boomer-remover-meme-trends-virus-coronavirus-social-media-covid-19-baby-boomers-1492190
|
|
|
Post by uwphoto on May 4, 2020 11:29:15 GMT -8
So, let the youngsters go play at the beach and have the oldsters hide away so as not to contract the virus from the thoughtless young spreaders. Nice. Good strategy. That will lead to more American deaths caused by the virus in a shorter period of time than Americans were killed in combat during World War II. The hashtag making the rounds amongst the young is #BoomerRemover. The notion is to get infected and then pass it to a boomer to 'clean things up'. The young stand to do quite well with the virus (unless it mutates like the Spanish Flu's 2nd wave, of course). This will likely introduce a new world order. And Gen X will get screwed again. www.newsweek.com/boomer-remover-meme-trends-virus-coronavirus-social-media-covid-19-baby-boomers-1492190just looking on paper (I'm 66) this is not a bad scenerio for the young. I know a few millenials, and I had it much much easier than they do. I got into SDSU by transferring from a JC with a "c" average. I did get my act together and got straight "A's" at State..but still. The whole world was open, you could do anything you see your mind to. Houses were easily affordable with a halfway decent income. All the resources are top heavy with the Boomers. There is such thing as "critical mass" and carrying capacity. We at some point became not sustainable..especially for the young. I am not doomsday, but on paper, it becomes apparent something had to give. I am not volunteering to check out, but I did get a chuckle when my millenial friend used the term "Boomer Reducer".
|
|
|
Post by myownwords on May 4, 2020 11:46:26 GMT -8
Just in California---going back over the past 5 (pre-Wuhan) years---we averaged about 750 deaths PER DAY, from ALL causes (murder, age, traffic and other accidents, suicides, heart disease, flu, etc.). Has anyone seen the number THIS year? Has that average gone up? Has it stayed flat? I don't know, can't find the answer. Article in UT today about average deaths in SD in last 4 months compared to last 3 yrs. Seemed it was up some this yr but, not necessarily by much over last 3 or 4. U can check it out as I don't remember all the details. So do we conclude that this Virus has NOT impacted our "normal", or expected daily death toll in any significant way? At least not in California. One unfortunate casualty---there are many--are hospitals. Due to forced vacancy (to provide for the expected flood of virus victims), many are close to bankruptcy. Not allowed to perform "elective" procedures has resulted in most hospitals running at only 40% to 70% capacity, thus promoting many of the medical staff layoffs, about which we've all read.
|
|
|
Post by longtimesdsufan on May 4, 2020 11:47:56 GMT -8
So I'll ask this again... What if they NEVER come up with an effective vaccine? We can't all hide at home forever. The economy and society would completely collapse. It would be far worse than COVID-19. How long can we go until that collapse? Who knows? A couple more months? 5 or 6 months? A year?? But what if that vaccine never comes? Or what if it takes an unreasonable amount of time to be developed (2-3 years or more)? Are the people who are saying, "No sports until a vaccine," willing to give up sports and ANY human interaction for the rest of their lives? Even 2-3 years?? Doubtful. I'm hopeful that we'll see a vaccine by early next year, but I'm no expert and I have no idea how likely that is. I'm not willing to stay locked up at home, with no interaction with other people for a year or more. At a certain point we have to say, "Here's how we deal with it, here's how we minimize the risk," and get on with life. And life in most countries, especially this one, includes sports. Three weeks ago I told my wife that if the country stays shut down too much longer there will be mass civil disobedience. You can see it starting already with the protests and business opening in some areas in defiance of their Governor's orders. California could open right now with some reasonable restrictions. As of now 78% of the deaths are people 65 years and older (1,727 of 2,215). Only 7% of deaths* are people under 50 years old (155 of 2,215). In between these two groups are people 50-65 years old with 16% of deaths (354 of 2,215). No reason to lock down people under 50, unless they have certain underlying medical issues. Even for people between 50 and 65 there could be a substantial loosening of restrictions, again unless they have certain underlying medical issues. People over 65 probably should, in most cases, have as little outside contact as possible. This would allow most of the economy to reopen without an unreasonable increase in risk. Since L.A. County has more deaths and all the other counties combined and almost more cases than all other counties combined, maybe we should quarantine L.A. County and open the rest of the state.
*People in the under 50 age group account for 49% of cases. So their outcomes are substantially better than the older groups.
The above data is available through the State of California's web site: www.covid19.ca.govClick on the "cases by county" link.
Year 1: It was mild and the normal risk to people over 65 may have been mitigated by partial immunity from the "Russian flu" in 1889-1890. Year 2: The virus mutated, and mostly killed people between the ages or 20-40 due to causing a cytokine storm. Pregnant women died at a rate between 23-71%. Of those that survived, 26% lost their child. The likely cause of the mutation was brecause WW1 troops could not social distance. Economic studies show that historically countries that lock down and reduce deaths recover faster. My message is that the direction we are going will make mutations easier and recovery harder. Suggest we come back and look at this post in November and again in November 2021. It may even be relevent November 2022. I really, really hope that none of this comes true. However, it will be much, much harder to lock down again. Health experts are sounding the warning, but not enough people are listening.
|
|
|
Post by sleepy on May 4, 2020 12:54:02 GMT -8
Also, the entire thing biologically will play out in 2 years. So... Yes, we all get back to our regularly scheduled programming at that point. Those of us who are still left, that is. The point is a lot of people can die in 2 years if we act carelessly. A lot of lives can be saved if we act responsibly instead of like pouty 3 year olds... What evidence? No corona virus (there are 19) has ever had a viable vaccine developed for it; why should we believe this, the worst, will be different? Mark it zero, Smokey. Also, evidence currently suggests there is no lasting immunity, if any, to the disease; so herd immunity probably ain't happening. Evidence suggests the virus uses the A.D.E. exploit to enhance each subsequent infection; this is what happened in Wuhan with the people locked in their apartment buildings~ it cycled over and over, killing those who had survived earlier bouts. There was the world before Covid. And now the world after. We aren't going back to Kansas, ever, Toto. I'm sorry, but Fauci has got odds on a vaccine on the distant horizon -- New Year or so. He's a doctor. Other credible doctors have the outside edge of the envelope at 2 years for this thing to play out in its own. Those are doctors. I haven't been informed of your credentials as yet. Would love to know of them so I can properly bake them into my outlook on this thing. Cheers.
|
|
|
Post by Gundo on May 4, 2020 13:19:45 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mojo56 on May 4, 2020 13:47:39 GMT -8
Just in California---going back over the past 5 (pre-Wuhan) years---we averaged about 750 deaths PER DAY, from ALL causes (murder, age, traffic and other accidents, suicides, heart disease, flu, etc.). Has anyone seen the number THIS year? Has that average gone up? Has it stayed flat? I don't know, can't find the answer. Using the CDC #'s it about 789/day (assuming there is no lag on reporting 'all deaths') for the period of 2/1 thru 5/2 which is 94% of expected deaths for that time frame. A reason this might be different from the 750 number that you have is that there are more deaths in the winter due to seasonal factors such as the flu. Not sure if your number is a yearly average. www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/k
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 4, 2020 14:13:46 GMT -8
You're creating a false dilemma here. But first of all, the point is a longer-term gap before fans can attend games in person... but I think everyone expects the first step to be sports resuming without crowds first. So it's not even "giving up sports" it's giving up attending sports in person. But the main falacy here is that giving up sports (in person) does not equate to giving up "ANY human interaction." There will be plenty of relaxation to social distancing (**in small groups**) that will be allowed long before "Large Group Gatherings" are allowed again. So... family BBQs will be allowed, but no concerts, festivals, fans in stadiums/arenas, etc. for a longer period of time. Also, most people in this country are pretty ambivalent to sports, or just plain don't care at all about sports. Anyone on this board almost certainly holds some subjective bias because we are all pretty serious sports fans... and likely most of our friends are as well. But that's not the case for everyone... not even "most" people. Those of us who are still left, that is. I tried to stay away from this thread. One of the mods started a new one where it belongs about the virus. But this has to be the biggest hyperbole statement I have seen on this board or in the media for that matter. We know that we need to be cautious and things aren't going to be the same for a while. Especially sporting events. I don't want anyone to fall victim to any infectious diseases. Without a doubt there are people rooting for this to get worse. Hopefully you're not one of them. I'm guessing this isn't effecting you with the exception of sports. But Jeebus, between your World War 100 million + death comparison and stuff like this, please give it a rest!!
|
|
|
Post by mojo56 on May 4, 2020 14:47:46 GMT -8
Another model. Awesome. You know how you can tell a model is completely worthless...when the modeled #'s aren't accurate for the starting day. May 1st had 36,000 cases (the 2nd & 3rd were 29,744 & 27,348) but yet the model shows the upper range for May 1st of over 300,000 cases! FFS you know exactly how many cases there were on 5/1. I wouldn't wipe my ass with this report.
|
|