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Post by gettough on Jul 24, 2010 20:50:36 GMT -8
While I believe we have improved and should beat low-level WAC teams, I do not believe that the MWC bottom is so far superior to the WAC bottom, just as I don't believe the PAC bottom is so far superior to the MWC bottom.
Bottom-dwelling schools, regardless of conference, usually have program problems and ineptitude in coaching and administration, as well as a general lack of commitment, that causes those losses.
Do all of you believe that Washington State or Illinois or Vanderbilt would just come in and handle us because they are from superior conferences? Unfortunately, the days of blowing out San Jose State or Univ of South Florida are over.
We are on the way up, but that doesn't mean that SDSU v Utah State is the same match-up it would have been in the Faulk era, or even in the Craft era.
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Post by aztecx on Jul 24, 2010 20:52:32 GMT -8
Utah St. and New Mexico St. are not cupcakes. If you think they are cupcakes, you really aren't paying attention. They were two of the worst teams in the WAC last year. Even the worst team in the MWC should be able to handle them and there's no excuse for not doing so. I have a feeling we'll lose to New Mexico State. I just don't think there's any excuse for it. But they are not cupcakes. If we lose to either of them, it will not be a shock. Why do you say there is no excuse for us losing to NM St. at their house. I think we will win. But it is not like they are a bad DII school. |
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Post by monty on Jul 24, 2010 21:19:30 GMT -8
The last decade or so we've beat wac teams at home and lost to the on road (hell, we've lost to everyone but Colorado State on the road on a regular basis) Should we lose to that team? - of course not, but that is the type of game that a degenerate gambler must be eying and a disheartened aztec football fan must be dreading. That game will tell me about the culture of losing on this campus --- hopefully it has been squashed.
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Post by gettough on Jul 25, 2010 8:28:15 GMT -8
Should we lose to that team? - of course not, but that is the type of game that a degenerate gambler must be eying and a disheartened aztec football fan must be dreading. That game will tell me about the culture of losing on this campus --- hopefully it has been squashed. Sadly, we'll be underdogs in that game. People here will say, "See? We lost to them but it was a good effort and they were favored." What they won't understand is that we should never be underdogs to a team like that in the first place. Like you I hope that the culture of losing has been squashed but until I see results, for my own sanity's sake I'm gonna err on the conservative side. Why should we never be underdogs to a team like that? Mismanagement of a program for two or three decades is at least as powerful as good facilities, a better conference, and "nicer place to recruit to." Sorry, but it seems like the recruits we have gotten the last several years had choices between us and USU or NMSU or other similar teams, not between us and UCLA, Oregon, Utah and TCU. I believe it we will separate ourselves from the lower level, but games between #70 and #100 in college football really are games. |
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Post by Fred Noonan on Jul 25, 2010 9:24:29 GMT -8
One of the 1090 hosts looked at the Aztec football schedule (on air) and made really disparaging comments. He said things such as: Wow, I don't know what these people are going to do but I look at this schedule and I don't see a single game that I would be excited about or want to go to. Then he asked Marty (the lady co-host) and she agreed that there was not a single game worth seeing or looking forward to. He made it sound like a huge crisis (the way talk radio guys often do) and commented that he was a on board with Brady Hoke but this is an absolutely dull schedule and almost impossible for the program to overcome. Ok, I'm not saying what he said was altogether untruthful - especially for the casual fan. But find a little something positive to say for the Aztec faithful - even if we are few in number. When the Pads have been 15 or so games out at the all-star break this same radio team has always found some dim ray of hope they could throw out there for the die-hards. Point out that the qb is talented and can light it up, that we have great receiver talent, that we will probably be improved, that the defense should be better, that the games are not too crowded and not that expensive for a whole family. Anything to balance out the many dire, doom and gloom, doleful comments. Sorry for the rant - and yes, I will e-mail them and tell them how I feel. Yeah, I heard it too. At first I pretty much felt the same way you did, come on give us a break. But the more I listened, the more I agreed with what he was saying. It was Darrin Smith. It was like the truth I really didn't want to hear. He prefaced his remarks with "This is going to get me in trouble again, but I just have to be honest." So, apparently he had made similar on air remarks and was chastised by management that probably shares the above view in hopes of someday getting the radio contract back. What he was essentially saying was Nicholls State, give me a break. How can I get anyone excited about that. You need to increase attendance and that just will not do it, who cares? Not fun to hear what he had to say, but in honesty I could not disagree with the validity of his points. Just really, really hated to hear it on the radio. Damn, I hate being in this position--where victories over the likes of New Mexico State, Utah State, Nicholls State, UNLV, CSU and New Mexico will mean a "successful" season. How far we have sunk. Nonetheless, In Hoke I Trust! The Fred Noonan School of Navigation.  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2010 9:35:55 GMT -8
They were two of the worst teams in the WAC last year. Even the worst team in the MWC should be able to handle them and there's no excuse for not doing so. I have a feeling we'll lose to New Mexico State. I just don't think there's any excuse for it. But they are not cupcakes. If we lose to either of them, it will not be a shock. Unlike John, I won't call Utah State a cupcake. They have a well-regard young head coach entering his second season and a very mobile veteran QB who is going to greatly minimize the effect of the 3-3-5. Plus, they return 16 starters. But NMSU? There were 120 DIA teams last year but check what their year-end Sagarin rating was: www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htmThey will be breaking in a new QB for an offense which averaged less than 12 ppg last year and it will be their first game whereas we will already have one under our belts. So I don't care whether it's in their house or not, if they put up more than two TDs our defense will have sucked and I agree with John there is no excuse for losing that one. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2010 9:41:38 GMT -8
Should we lose to that team? - of course not, but that is the type of game that a degenerate gambler must be eying and a disheartened aztec football fan must be dreading. That game will tell me about the culture of losing on this campus --- hopefully it has been squashed. Sadly, we'll be underdogs in that game. I disagree. Vegas' standard is to give three points on the line to the home team, so NMSU will have that. However, we beat them by 17 last year at Qualcomm. So my guess is the betting line will be about SDSU -10. Your guess, John? |
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Post by brokencurse on Jul 25, 2010 10:09:44 GMT -8
New Mexico State is absolutely a cupcake. Problem is, Aztecs have fallen so hard we no longer view cupcakes as cupcakes. That's because we've been a cupcake ourselves for the last several years. I finally have some hope that our cupcake status will change this year. We almost pulled out of our cupcake tailspin in Hoke and crew's first year. I like their chances a lot in year 2.
If a team like NMSU that is #114 out of 120 is not a cupcake, what the heck is a cupcake? A JUCO team?
New Mexico State 2009 results: 3-10 (1-7 WAC)
Idaho 6 - 21 (L)
Prairie View A&M 21 - 18 (W)
UTEP 12 - 38 (L)
N.M. 20 - 17 (W)
San Diego State 17 - 34 (L)
Utah State 20 - 17 (W)
Louisiana Tech 7 - 45 (L)
Fresno State 3 - 34 (L)
Ohio State 0 - 45 (L)
Hawai'i 6 - 24 (L)
Nevada 23 - 60 (L)
San Jose State 10 - 13 (L)
Boise State 7 - 42 (L)
USU is also made by hostess.
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Post by aztecjake on Jul 25, 2010 10:12:02 GMT -8
Vegas' standard is to give three points on the line to the home team, so NMSU will have that. However, we beat them by 17 last year at Qualcomm.[/quote]
Contrary to a couple of other games played last year, SDSU beat NMSU in the 4th quarter. The score going into the 4th was 17 - 10 Aztecs, who doubled their score in the 4th ending with 34 points. With approx. 7 minutes remaining in the 3rd, the score was 10 - 7 Aztecs.
IF all else were to remain a balance between the two teams, replacing our place kicker with Abel Perez will shave off 7 points per game scored against the Aztecs, and add at least an additional 3 points to the offense. I predict a final score 37 - 13 Aztecs (includes Vegas +3)
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Post by monty on Jul 25, 2010 10:20:57 GMT -8
Vegas' standard is to give three points on the line to the home team, so NMSU will have that. However, we beat them by 17 last year at Qualcomm. Contrary to a couple of other games played last year, SDSU beat NMSU in the 4th quarter. The score going into the 4th was 17 - 10 Aztecs, who doubled their score in the 4th ending with 34 points. With approx. 7 minutes remaining in the 3rd, the score was 10 - 7 Aztecs. IF all else were to remain a balance between the two teams, replacing our place kicker with Abel Perez will shave off 7 points per game scored against the Aztecs, and add at least an additional 3 points to the offense. I predict a final score 37 - 13 Aztecs (includes Vegas +3) If we score more, then his big leg will be a factor, if he's kicking off 4 times a game, it won't have that big of an affect. I looked it up and we gave 25 yards a kick return and since dude was kicking to around the 10 giver or take 5 yards, it will make quite a difference between averaging the 35 to 40 starting field position (notice our opponents attempted 10 more field goals then we did); but, 25 yards a return also points to less than stellar special teams coverage. Better kicker, actually having touchbacks, better athletes running down kicks and an offense getting more than 3 scores a game will help our defense immensely. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Jul 25, 2010 10:28:36 GMT -8
I think the term "cupcake" implies a dominant team gobbling up a weaker team. Obviously the Aztecs aren't a dominant team, therefore "winnable game" is probably a more fitting description.
Utah St. and New Mexico will be pretty good measuring sticks for the MWC schedule. Wins vs. these two could signal a move into the upper half of the conference for the Aztecs.
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Post by brokencurse on Jul 25, 2010 10:41:03 GMT -8
I think the term "cupcake" implies a dominant team gobbling up a weaker team. Obviously the Aztecs aren't a dominant team, therefore "winnable game" is probably a more fitting description. Utah St. and New Mexico will be pretty good measuring sticks for the MWC schedule. Wins vs. these two could signal a move into the upper half of the conference for the Aztecs. First part, yes. Cupcake vs cupcake = pillow fight Second part, don't know that wins over USU and NMSU would signal a move to the top 4 of the MWC. But, a loss to either certainly signals no move to the top 4 of the MWC. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2010 12:07:58 GMT -8
Monty, in compiling his KO Return Defense rating, Phil Steele makes touchbacks the equivalent of a 15-yard return on the basis that the average KO is received at about the five. On that basis, although he doesn't mention it, our paltry two touchbacks resulted in a KO Return Defense rating of 25.1 yards per return in 2009. Of the 120 DIA schools, that placed us tied with national champion Alabama for 115th. Of course, in the case of Bama, it mattered little since they gave up only 14 TDs the entire season. Brokencurse, I agree on the import of victories over NMSU and USU. Since neither figures to be in the first division of the WAC, beating them is not an augury of a first division MWC finish for us. (Oh and the made by Hostess comment was funny.) Gawd am I waiting for the day when it's again a foregone conclusion that we will just pound somebody like NMSU.  |
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Post by monty on Jul 25, 2010 12:28:46 GMT -8
Monty, in compiling his KO Return Defense rating, Phil Steele makes touchbacks the equivalent of a 15-yard return on the basis that the average KO is received at about the five. On that basis, although he doesn't mention it, our paltry two touchbacks resulted in a KO Return Defense rating of 25.1 yards per return in 2009. Of the 120 DIA schools, that placed us tied with national champion Alabama for 115th. Of course, in the case of Bama, it mattered little since they gave up only 14 TDs the entire season. Brokencurse, I agree on the import of victories over NMSU and USU. Since neither figures to be in the first division of the WAC, beating them is not an augury of a first division MWC finish for us. (Oh and the made by Hostess comment was funny.) Gawd am I waiting for the day when it's again a foregone conclusion that we will just pound somebody like NMSU. My full point is that although our kicker was bad, coverage has to be just as bad to allow 25 yards a kick; as for 'bama, I rarley watched them as I find the SEC like mediocre NFL teams in the 80s play - it is such a boring style of play outside matchups of the top 3 or 4 teams - I would guess they squibbed a lot since Saban is mr. boring and with his team he'd rather send them 3 and out then risk a runback. Kicking will improve, but unless perez is putting it 5+ yards into the endzone, other teams are going to run kicks out until we show we've improved in our ability to cover a kick - hopefully some of the redshirts and the true freshman that play are much better athletes than what we've had. |
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Post by McQuervo on Jul 25, 2010 15:10:44 GMT -8
ok- I hate Scott. That guy is a jackalope in love with himself.  |
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Post by brokencurse on Jul 25, 2010 17:59:51 GMT -8
One of the 1090 hosts looked at the Aztec football schedule (on air) and made really disparaging comments. He said things such as: Wow, I don't know what these people are going to do but I look at this schedule and I don't see a single game that I would be excited about or want to go to. Then he asked Marty (the lady co-host) and she agreed that there was not a single game worth seeing or looking forward to. He made it sound like a huge crisis (the way talk radio guys often do) and commented that he was a on board with Brady Hoke but this is an absolutely dull schedule and almost impossible for the program to overcome. Ok, I'm not saying what he said was altogether untruthful - especially for the casual fan. But find a little something positive to say for the Aztec faithful - even if we are few in number. When the Pads have been 15 or so games out at the all-star break this same radio team has always found some dim ray of hope they could throw out there for the die-hards. Point out that the qb is talented and can light it up, that we have great receiver talent, that we will probably be improved, that the defense should be better, that the games are not too crowded and not that expensive for a whole family. Anything to balance out the many dire, doom and gloom, doleful comments. Sorry for the rant - and yes, I will e-mail them and tell them how I feel. Yeah, I heard it too. At first I pretty much felt the same way you did, come on give us a break. But the more I listened, the more I agreed with what he was saying. It was Darrin Smith. It was like the truth I really didn't want to hear. He prefaced his remarks with "This is going to get me in trouble again, but I just have to be honest." So, apparently he had made similar on air remarks and was chastised by management that probably shares the above view in hopes of someday getting the radio contract back. What he was essentially saying was Nicholls State, give me a break. How can I get anyone excited about that. You need to increase attendance and that just will not do it, who cares? Not fun to hear what he had to say, but in honesty I could not disagree with the validity of his points. Just really, really hated to hear it on the radio. Damn, I hate being in this position--where victories over the likes of New Mexico State, Utah State, Nicholls State, UNLV, CSU and New Mexico will mean a "successful" season. How far we have sunk. Nonetheless, In Hoke I Trust! The Fred Noonan School of Navigation. Yes, the truth has gotten ugly. Sounds tuff. it isn't father knows best anymore. it's a kick in the face on a saturday night with a steel-toe codiac work boot,... a trip to the hospital, bloodied and bashed. reconstructive surgery....but what doesn't kill us makes up stronger, am i right? The OOC home schedule is pretty rank. Nickels State makes the South Central Louisiana State University Mud Dogs look extremely daunting. We follow that up with cupcake USU. In MWC we get bottom dwellers UNLV and CSU, which will be fighting New Mexico for last place. That's 4 dogs out of 6. Utah is a great matchup and the best game on the schedule. This should be a late season battle between 2 bowl eligible teams. Add Utah's departure to the PAC and it is a game to be excited about. AFA is always a decent, gutty team. If we've made any significant strides we should beat these guys on our home turf. I'm starting to think 5-1 at home this year, pinch me if I need to wake up. |
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Post by aztecx on Jul 25, 2010 20:12:03 GMT -8
New Mexico State is absolutely a cupcake. Problem is, Aztecs have fallen so hard we no longer view cupcakes as cupcakes. That's because we've been a cupcake ourselves for the last several years. I finally have some hope that our cupcake status will change this year. We almost pulled out of our cupcake tailspin in Hoke and crew's first year. I like their chances a lot in year 2. If a team like NMSU that is #114 out of 120 is not a cupcake, what the heck is a cupcake? A JUCO team? New Mexico State 2009 results: 3-10 (1-7 WAC) Idaho 6 - 21 (L) Prairie View A&M 21 - 18 (W) UTEP 12 - 38 (L) N.M. 20 - 17 (W) San Diego State 17 - 34 (L) Utah State 20 - 17 (W) Louisiana Tech 7 - 45 (L) Fresno State 3 - 34 (L) Ohio State 0 - 45 (L) Hawai'i 6 - 24 (L) Nevada 23 - 60 (L) San Jose State 10 - 13 (L) Boise State 7 - 42 (L) USU is also made by hostess. Are we a cupcake also? The point is someone is saying so and so is a cupcake so we should win handily. |
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Post by aztec619 on Jul 26, 2010 11:58:53 GMT -8
Listened to that interview and kaplan is terrible again.
Also even though NMSU is a cupcake, we shouldn't take them lightly. We haven't done anything recently or within the past 10+ yrs to make us seem like a juggernaut so we need to pay attention to every team we play and not look towards the next game on the schedule. But I do believe we are on the way up.
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Post by gettough on Jul 26, 2010 12:42:25 GMT -8
Listened to that interview and kaplan is terrible again. Why is talk radio of any kind so devoid of content? Why do I want to listen to Kaplan going on about his kids, or just burning time about nonsense with BR? What advertisers, based upon what kind of ratings pay for those hours of nothing to be on the air? I have a button and hit it a couple of times on the way to work to catch an interview with Hoke, Fisher or Bud Black if there is one. If not, hit another button. Local radio guys, do some homework. Lee is hard to listen to, but at least he knows something. He has done his job and has some sense of the stories out there. |
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Post by Fred Noonan on Jul 26, 2010 13:52:52 GMT -8
OK, I did not hear the BR/Scott Kaplan commentary--don't listen to them, they are aimed at a different demographic. In my prior post I was referring to the afternoon guy, thought it was Darrin Smith [?] who was making the points about how poor our schedule is. So, sounds like our scheduling took a few hits on 1090 last week, at least morning and afternoon. As for all this talk about cupcakes I'm starting to not like cupcakes since the consensus seems to be we fall into the Twinkie Team category--well, judging from our competition anyway. Please, Brady, Please! Just end this! Don't know how much longer I can sit around and think I'm being an optimist by even daring to think we can beat a New Mexico St. or Utah St. Someone has to be kidding me! Oh, the Horror of it all. The Fred Noonan School of Navigation. |
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