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Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2023 21:02:12 GMT -8
Exactly - if he could trade some of his slugging for some batting average to increase his OBP and put the ball in play more, that would be ideal. He has such a good speed tool that he really just needs to put the ball in play more to let his speed play in beating out ground balls and stealing bases. Or at least change his approach situationally, figure out when to lay down a bunt, figure out when to swing for contact vs when to swing for the fences. The Padres really have not done a good job of developing Grisham. It's really the exact opposite. In general, you want to trade strikeouts for additional slugging. The problem with Grisham is the same it's always been - He's too passive as a hitter and can be had in the strike zone, especially on the outer half of the plate. But that said, he's still a league average bat, despite the fact he's underperforming his expected numbers by a pretty considerable margin. Again, the problem is his strike out rate. He's an inning killer. Put the ball in play more. That's the difference between him and the other center fielders. He's most certainly not at the league average in those two departments. And, if he is, that still doesn't make it ok. That just means that the position is really down in terms of offense. But, I highly doubt he's average in those two categories.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2023 21:13:36 GMT -8
It's really the exact opposite. In general, you want to trade strikeouts for additional slugging. The problem with Grisham is the same it's always been - He's too passive as a hitter and can be had in the strike zone, especially on the outer half of the plate. But that said, he's still a league average bat, despite the fact he's underperforming his expected numbers by a pretty considerable margin. Again, the problem is his strike out rate. He's an inning killer. Put the ball in play more. That's the difference between him and the other center fielders. He's most certainly not at the league average in those two departments. And, if he is, that still doesn't make it ok. That just means that the position is really down in terms of offense. But, I highly doubt he's average in those two categories. It's not. His walks balance out the strikeouts well. The larger problem, as stated, is that he can't tap into the power consistently that he has at the expense of the strikeouts. You want slug and you'll trade strikeouts for that. Smart teams will, anyway. 99 wRC+ is essentially league average. All of the stuff you think about or want to point to is included in that single metric and it's park adjusted to account for Petco's harsh realities. League average OBP is .320. Grisham's OBP is .318.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 5, 2023 21:40:26 GMT -8
Again, the problem is his strike out rate. He's an inning killer. Put the ball in play more. That's the difference between him and the other center fielders. He's most certainly not at the league average in those two departments. And, if he is, that still doesn't make it ok. That just means that the position is really down in terms of offense. But, I highly doubt he's average in those two categories. It's not. His walks balance out the strikeouts well. The larger problem, as stated, is that he can't tap into the power consistently that he has at the expense of the strikeouts. You want slug and you'll trade strikeouts for that. Smart teams will, anyway. 99 wRC+ is essentially league average. All of the stuff you think about or want to point to is included in that single metric and it's park adjusted to account for Petco's harsh realities. League average OBP is .320. Grisham's OBP is .318. Yeah I really think that modern metrics are off in this regard. There has been an overreach with the overemphasis of three outcome hitting. Small ball, situational hitting and the value of putting the ball in play with speed aren't being accounted for adequately in the metrics. The game will re-correct, give it 10 years.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2023 21:43:22 GMT -8
It's not. His walks balance out the strikeouts well. The larger problem, as stated, is that he can't tap into the power consistently that he has at the expense of the strikeouts. You want slug and you'll trade strikeouts for that. Smart teams will, anyway. 99 wRC+ is essentially league average. All of the stuff you think about or want to point to is included in that single metric and it's park adjusted to account for Petco's harsh realities. League average OBP is .320. Grisham's OBP is .318. Yeah I really think that modern metrics are off in this regard. There has been an overreach with the overemphasis of three outcome hitting. Small ball, situational hitting and the value of putting the ball in play with speed aren't being accounted for adequately in the metrics. The game will re-correct, give it 10 years. I guess we'll reconvene in the 2030's.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2023 21:50:12 GMT -8
It's not. His walks balance out the strikeouts well. The larger problem, as stated, is that he can't tap into the power consistently that he has at the expense of the strikeouts. You want slug and you'll trade strikeouts for that. Smart teams will, anyway. 99 wRC+ is essentially league average. All of the stuff you think about or want to point to is included in that single metric and it's park adjusted to account for Petco's harsh realities. League average OBP is .320. Grisham's OBP is .318. Yeah I really think that modern metrics are off in this regard. There has been an overreach with the overemphasis of three outcome hitting. Small ball, situational hitting and the value of putting the ball in play with speed aren't being accounted for adequately in the metrics. The game will re-correct, give it 10 years. Yes, those metrics aren't perfect, just like anything else, but leaving out those very valuable parts of the game, make it deceiving, especially being able to put the ball in play. Putting the ball in play with runners on, is huge as well.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 5, 2023 21:52:49 GMT -8
Yeah I really think that modern metrics are off in this regard. There has been an overreach with the overemphasis of three outcome hitting. Small ball, situational hitting and the value of putting the ball in play with speed aren't being accounted for adequately in the metrics. The game will re-correct, give it 10 years. I guess we'll reconvene in the 2030's. Here's an example of what I'm talking about. You have a hitter on 3rd, one out. Siruation A you have Soto at bat. Great contact hitter. He puts the ball in the air deep enough to get the SAC fly and score the run. Siruation B you have Grisham. Not a good contact hitter. He swings and misses and strikes out, and then run doesn't score. Another example, very relevant with the improvements to the running game. With a hitter like Grisham it's much harder to call for the hit and run then it is with a hitter like (let's throw Cronenworth out there, he has good bat to ball skills). And that ultimately affects your ability to manufacture runs. Which is extremely important in the playoffs against good pitching, and is very important in ballparks like Petco, and very important when you are leading off in the 9 spot with our top of the lineup power bats to follow - you just need to get on base!
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2023 21:53:34 GMT -8
Again, the problem is his strike out rate. He's an inning killer. Put the ball in play more. That's the difference between him and the other center fielders. He's most certainly not at the league average in those two departments. And, if he is, that still doesn't make it ok. That just means that the position is really down in terms of offense. But, I highly doubt he's average in those two categories. It's not. His walks balance out the strikeouts well. The larger problem, as stated, is that he can't tap into the power consistently that he has at the expense of the strikeouts. You want slug and you'll trade strikeouts for that. Smart teams will, anyway. 99 wRC+ is essentially league average. All of the stuff you think about or want to point to is included in that single metric and it's park adjusted to account for Petco's harsh realities. League average OBP is .320. Grisham's OBP is .318. The LARGEST, it being greater than your larger example, is his inability to put the ball in play, which your stat that you put up apparently doesn't take into consideration. You may be the only one that says that Grisham is fine at the plate. If he was just an average center fielder, he would have been replaced long ago.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2023 21:55:49 GMT -8
I guess we'll reconvene in the 2030's. Here's an example of what I'm talking about. You have a hitter on 3rd, one out. Siruation A you have Soto at bat. Great contact hitter. He puts the ball in the air deep enough to get the SAC fly and score the run. Siruation B you have Grisham. Not a good contact hitter. He swings and misses and strikes out, and then run doesn't score. Another example, very relevant with the improvements to the running game. With a hitter like Grisham it's much harder to call for the hit and run then it is with a hitter like (let's throw Cronenworth out there, he has good bat to ball skills). And that ultimately affects your ability to manufacture runs. Which is extremely important in the playoffs against good pitching, and is very important in ballparks like Petco, and very important when you are leading off in the 9 spot with our top of the lineup power bats to follow - you just need to get on base! Heck, if Grisham could just hit the ball to the right side with a runner on third with one out, that would do the trick, but there's more often than not a strikeout. It's useless.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 5, 2023 21:59:05 GMT -8
Yeah I really think that modern metrics are off in this regard. There has been an overreach with the overemphasis of three outcome hitting. Small ball, situational hitting and the value of putting the ball in play with speed aren't being accounted for adequately in the metrics. The game will re-correct, give it 10 years. I guess we'll reconvene in the 2030's. Here's another point regarding manufacturing runs. The Padres this year have lost a lot of close games because they haven't been able to manufacture runs. Look at the Padres Pythagorean Win Loss vs. Their actual record. I Guarantee that the Padres would have a better record if they could have smoothed out their offensive production. Well - to that point - small ball tends to have less variation in scoring, and tend to be more consistent from a runs scored perspective (less run scoring variance). So when I'm talking about trading slugging for OBP (keeping OPS constant) - that's exactly what I'm talking about. I'm talking about lowering the teams variation in runs scored from game to game. And that's an organizational/philosophical type of shift that I think in 10 years more organizations will start to see.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2023 22:02:46 GMT -8
It's not. His walks balance out the strikeouts well. The larger problem, as stated, is that he can't tap into the power consistently that he has at the expense of the strikeouts. You want slug and you'll trade strikeouts for that. Smart teams will, anyway. 99 wRC+ is essentially league average. All of the stuff you think about or want to point to is included in that single metric and it's park adjusted to account for Petco's harsh realities. League average OBP is .320. Grisham's OBP is .318. The LARGEST, it being greater than your larger example, is his inability to put the ball in play, which your stat that you put up apparently doesn't take into consideration. You may be the only one that says that Grisham is fine at the plate. If he was just an average center fielder, he would have been replaced long ago. wRC+ is literally weighted runs created, adjusted for ballpark. It measures how runs are created. You don't create runs by not putting the ball in play, ergo, no. And no, I'm not the only one. I don't live in an echo chamber. It's not difficult to discern the real problems (Cronenworth's massive decline, Machado and Bogaerts' ineffectiveness and an eradication of the bench depth, combined with a historically bad offense at scoring with men on base) - It's rather easy.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2023 22:08:14 GMT -8
I guess we'll reconvene in the 2030's. Here's another point regarding manufacturing runs. The Padres this year have lost a lot of close games because they haven't been able to manufacture runs. Look at the Padres Pythagorean Win Loss vs. Their actual record. I Guarantee that the Padres would have a better record if they could have smoothed out their offensive production. Well - to that point - small ball tends to have less variation in scoring, and tend to be more consistent from a runs scored perspective (less run scoring variance). So when I'm talking about trading slugging for OBP (keeping OPS constant) - that's exactly what I'm talking about. I'm talking about lowering the teams variation in runs scored from game to game. And that's an organizational/philosophical type of shift that I think in 10 years more organizations will start to see. I don't disagree, but you could point to a lot of things and arrive at the same conclusion. Cluster luck and event sequencing has been brutal this year. That's a large reason they are 5-18 in one run games.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2023 22:12:41 GMT -8
Fun fact: Trent Grisham has both a higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate than Mike Trout. Massive liability, that Trout.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2023 22:18:19 GMT -8
The LARGEST, it being greater than your larger example, is his inability to put the ball in play, which your stat that you put up apparently doesn't take into consideration. You may be the only one that says that Grisham is fine at the plate. If he was just an average center fielder, he would have been replaced long ago. wRC+ is literally weighted runs created, adjusted for ballpark. It measures how runs are created. You don't create runs by not putting the ball in play, ergo, no. And no, I'm not the only one. I don't live in an echo chamber. It's not difficult to discern the real problems (Cronenworth's massive decline, Machado and Bogaerts' ineffectiveness and an eradication of the bench depth, combined with a historically bad offense at scoring with men on base) - It's rather easy. Oh yeah, I agree that the larger problems are the players you stated, and more so than Grisham, but that doesn't mean his offensive production is not a problem, as well.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2023 22:19:13 GMT -8
Fun fact: Trent Grisham has both a higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate than Mike Trout. Massive liability, that Trout. Horrible comparison, for obvious reasons.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 5, 2023 23:59:35 GMT -8
Here's another point regarding manufacturing runs. The Padres this year have lost a lot of close games because they haven't been able to manufacture runs. Look at the Padres Pythagorean Win Loss vs. Their actual record. I Guarantee that the Padres would have a better record if they could have smoothed out their offensive production. Well - to that point - small ball tends to have less variation in scoring, and tend to be more consistent from a runs scored perspective (less run scoring variance). So when I'm talking about trading slugging for OBP (keeping OPS constant) - that's exactly what I'm talking about. I'm talking about lowering the teams variation in runs scored from game to game. And that's an organizational/philosophical type of shift that I think in 10 years more organizations will start to see. I don't disagree, but you could point to a lot of things and arrive at the same conclusion. Cluster luck and event sequencing has been brutal this year. That's a large reason they are 5-18 in one run games. True. But good teams also find ways to "get lucky". Putting the ball in play allows you to "get lucky" when a ball is booted by an infielder, or an outfielder loses the ball in the sun, or a dribbler groundball turns into an infield single. Getting on base can lead to a run scored without even a hit - SB, wild pitch, fly ball. The running game leads to errors, getting a man on base can benefit the next hitter at bat as well. With nobody on, more bunting should happen, with nobody on and 2 strikes, hitters should be hitting more for contact, and should fight not to strike out by fouling balls off more instead of looking at pitches like Grisham loves to do. You can earn plenty of walks by fouling off pitches in the zone and being patient. I don't see a change in Grisham's approach with two strikes. That's what really bothers ne.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 6, 2023 7:03:07 GMT -8
I don't disagree, but you could point to a lot of things and arrive at the same conclusion. Cluster luck and event sequencing has been brutal this year. That's a large reason they are 5-18 in one run games. True. But good teams also find ways to "get lucky". Putting the ball in play allows you to "get lucky" when a ball is booted by an infielder, or an outfielder loses the ball in the sun, or a dribbler groundball turns into an infield single. Getting on base can lead to a run scored without even a hit - SB, wild pitch, fly ball. The running game leads to errors, getting a man on base can benefit the next hitter at bat as well. With nobody on, more bunting should happen, with nobody on and 2 strikes, hitters should be hitting more for contact, and should fight not to strike out by fouling balls off more instead of looking at pitches like Grisham loves to do. You can earn plenty of walks by fouling off pitches in the zone and being patient. I don't see a change in Grisham's approach with two strikes. That's what really bothers ne. That's a team issue, not a Grisham issue. Guys going into "swing for the fences" mode and trying way too hard to compensate for the RISP struggles. Cronenworth is the immediate example and he's far worse than Grisham at this point.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 6, 2023 8:24:52 GMT -8
True. But good teams also find ways to "get lucky". Putting the ball in play allows you to "get lucky" when a ball is booted by an infielder, or an outfielder loses the ball in the sun, or a dribbler groundball turns into an infield single. Getting on base can lead to a run scored without even a hit - SB, wild pitch, fly ball. The running game leads to errors, getting a man on base can benefit the next hitter at bat as well. With nobody on, more bunting should happen, with nobody on and 2 strikes, hitters should be hitting more for contact, and should fight not to strike out by fouling balls off more instead of looking at pitches like Grisham loves to do. You can earn plenty of walks by fouling off pitches in the zone and being patient. I don't see a change in Grisham's approach with two strikes. That's what really bothers ne. That's a team issue, not a Grisham issue. Guys going into "swing for the fences" mode and trying way too hard to compensate for the RISP struggles. Cronenworth is the immediate example and he's far worse than Grisham at this point. Grisham striking out a lot, and not putting the ball in play is a Grisham issue.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 6, 2023 8:59:02 GMT -8
That's a team issue, not a Grisham issue. Guys going into "swing for the fences" mode and trying way too hard to compensate for the RISP struggles. Cronenworth is the immediate example and he's far worse than Grisham at this point. Grisham striking out a lot, and not putting the ball in play is a Grisham issue. Take the L because this is a bad take when he has a league average OBP and a .344 xWOBA, both considerably higher than Cronenworth's. He's actually putting the ball in play and getting unlucky based on his quality of contact, so the truth is exactly opposite of what you're arguing.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 6, 2023 9:39:52 GMT -8
Grisham striking out a lot, and not putting the ball in play is a Grisham issue. Take the L because this is a bad take when he has a league average OBP and a .344 xWOBA, both considerably higher than Cronenworth's. He's actually putting the ball in play and getting unlucky based on his quality of contact, so the truth is exactly opposite of what you're arguing. Ha!!! Thanks for the laugh on this one. Hilarious. Take the L over this Grisham debate? You need to get out of this conversation concerning Grisham, let YOU taking the L. I understand you keep trying to compare him to Cronenworth, be a use that's all you got. The league average SUCKS. When do you think you'll understand that? Never, because you've been in Grishams corner all along and not Cronenworths. You would never backtrack and say you're wrong about a guy, ever. You've proven that. You're in his jock strap, continually, about his defense and that he's an "average" hitter. You do understand that being average can really suck, right? You're undeniable devotion to him makes you incredibly blinded by the facts of what he does out there. His strikeout ratio is absolutely horrendous, and no he does not put the ball in play NEARLY enough. That's obvious to everyone, but you.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 6, 2023 10:00:07 GMT -8
Take the L because this is a bad take when he has a league average OBP and a .344 xWOBA, both considerably higher than Cronenworth's. He's actually putting the ball in play and getting unlucky based on his quality of contact, so the truth is exactly opposite of what you're arguing. Ha!!! Thanks for the laugh on this one. Hilarious. Take the L over this Grisham debate? You need to get out of this conversation concerning Grisham, let YOU taking the L. I understand you keep trying to compare him to Cronenworth, be a use that's all you got. The league average SUCKS. When do you think you'll understand that? Never, because you've been in Grishams corner all along and not Cronenworths. You would never backtrack and say you're wrong about a guy, ever. You've proven that. You're in his jock strap, continually, about his defense and that he's an "average" hitter. You do understand that being average can really suck, right? You're undeniable devotion to him makes you incredibly blinded by the facts of what he does out there. His strikeout ratio is absolutely horrendous, and no he does not put the ball in play NEARLY enough. That's obvious to everyone, but you. It really isn't a debate because all you've done is repeat "Strikes out and doesn't put the ball in play NEARLY enough." I'm not comparing him to anyone, I'm using Cronenworth for contextual purposes to illustrate the density of the argument. It's dumb, specifically when there's a guy who's levels of magnitude worse than he is. There's a Pacific Ocean between "massive liability" and the reality of his true level of production when it's utilized in the proper context. His strikeout rate is 28%. Identical to last year. The difference between last year and this year is he's barreling the ball at a 15% rate, which is 14th best in baseball among all qualified hitters. He's underperforming his expected slugging by 70 points and his on base percentage by nearly 30. I guarantee you we aren't having this "debate" if his slash line is .230/.345/.450...and if we were, it'd be even sillier than it is now. You don't understand statistics. It's fine. But stop portraying falsehoods in the name of ignorance. It goes nowhere. By definition, "average" can't "suck" because then half the league would suck....and then it becomes a league issue, not a Grisham issue, yet again. When I say he's basically a league average hitter, I mean it. 100 is the league average for wRC+. Simple, easy baseline. Yet all you see is batting average and counting stats and your comprehension ends there. Some of us don't believe in that, thankfully, and look for beyond surface level details to explain things.
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