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Soto
May 8, 2023 13:06:19 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 13:06:19 GMT -8
What numbers explain precisely why Soto has disappeared into the dumpster since his arrival in San Diego? One thing I wanted to add and why I think the "eyeball test" is extremely flawed when it comes to something like this. First, we remember what we saw last. It impacts perspective and decision-making heavily. All we've seen this season with Soto is him taking a TON of called third strikes, especially in the bottom of the zone. It seems like he's never swinging the bat, right? Rewind to 2021, when Soto hit over .300 and posted a stellar season across the board with nearly 30 homers and an OBP north of .450. His swing percentage that year? 35. You know what his swing rate in 2023? 35.3%.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 13:34:08 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 13:34:08 GMT -8
You can keep going right on along with your metrics only thought, etc, and hang onto every word of the guys you've mentioned above, and at the same time bury your head in the sand concerning other factors. You'll continue to be wrong to not include the human element, just as you're flat out wrong saying that Urias and May are not any good, because of what the metrics say. There's proof right there that metrics aren't everything. But, you be you. May is a league average pitcher or below by any advanced metric. I'm sorry you can't look beyond ERA. Never said Urias wasn't good, just said he was in the same general profile as May perceptionally, but he stands out because he gets more whiffs. Missing bats at the highest level is the most important anti-regression stat available. You can continue to harp on the human element (another boomer cliche) but everything is captured in statistics. Literally everything. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is the same exact leverage situation as doing it in the seventh inning. If clutch was a real statistic, how come the same "clutch" players don't factor into win probability on a yearly basis? Yes, I'm going to side with Bill James and Tom Tango over JohnEAztec. Reading comprehension, yourself, much? I never said it was a stat. I said that it's a human element factor. You either have it or you don't. Some people don't tighten as much, or can be more hyper focused than others in those situations, in all sports. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is a MUCH different thing than getting a clutch hit in the top or bottom of the ninth with the winning run in scoring position. I shouldn't have to explain why to you, but I may have to. Let me know. There's certain players that have a tendency to come through in the clutch, than other players. Like I said, you'll never get it, or won't want to get it, since you're so entrenched in metrics. Very unfortunate.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 13:37:45 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 13:37:45 GMT -8
What numbers explain precisely why Soto has disappeared into the dumpster since his arrival in San Diego? One thing I wanted to add and why I think the "eyeball test" is extremely flawed when it comes to something like this. First, we remember what we saw last. It impacts perspective and decision-making heavily. All we've seen this season with Soto is him taking a TON of called third strikes, especially in the bottom of the zone. It seems like he's never swinging the bat, right? Rewind to 2021, when Soto hit over .300 and posted a stellar season across the board with nearly 30 homers and an OBP north of .450. His swing percentage that year? 35. You know what his swing rate in 2023? 35.3%. No, I see him swinging the bat. I also see him getting fooled on a number of pitches, especially on the called third strike pitches. He's a mess right now in that department.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 13:51:38 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 13:51:38 GMT -8
May is a league average pitcher or below by any advanced metric. I'm sorry you can't look beyond ERA. Never said Urias wasn't good, just said he was in the same general profile as May perceptionally, but he stands out because he gets more whiffs. Missing bats at the highest level is the most important anti-regression stat available. You can continue to harp on the human element (another boomer cliche) but everything is captured in statistics. Literally everything. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is the same exact leverage situation as doing it in the seventh inning. If clutch was a real statistic, how come the same "clutch" players don't factor into win probability on a yearly basis? Yes, I'm going to side with Bill James and Tom Tango over JohnEAztec. Reading comprehension, yourself, much? I never said it was a stat. I said that it's a human element factor. You either have it or you don't. Some people don't tighten as much, or can be more hyper focused than others in those situations, in all sports. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is a MUCH different thing than getting a clutch hit in the top or bottom of the ninth with the winning run in scoring position. I shouldn't have to explain why to you, but I may have to. Let me know. There's certain players that have a tendency to come through in the clutch, than other players. Like I said, you'll never get it, or won't want to get it, since you're so entrenched in metrics. Very unfortunate. Sure, point me to those players. Oh wait...you can't.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:01:00 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 14:01:00 GMT -8
You can keep going right on along with your metrics only thought, etc, and hang onto every word of the guys you've mentioned above, and at the same time bury your head in the sand concerning other factors. You'll continue to be wrong to not include the human element, just as you're flat out wrong saying that Urias and May are not any good, because of what the metrics say. There's proof right there that metrics aren't everything. But, you be you. May is a league average pitcher or below by any advanced metric. I'm sorry you can't look beyond ERA. Never said Urias wasn't good, just said he was in the same general profile as May perceptionally, but he stands out because he gets more whiffs. Missing bats at the highest level is the most important anti-regression stat available. You can continue to harp on the human element (another boomer cliche) but everything is captured in statistics. Literally everything. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is the same exact leverage situation as doing it in the seventh inning. If clutch was a real statistic, how come the same "clutch" players don't factor into win probability on a yearly basis? Yes, I'm going to side with Bill James and Tom Tango over JohnEAztec. You said that Urias would regress just like May. He's in the same boat as May. The only difference is that he whiffs more batters and he's a lefty. Sheesh, here we go again with you not telling the whole story of your posts. It's gets old.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:24:21 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 14:24:21 GMT -8
May is a league average pitcher or below by any advanced metric. I'm sorry you can't look beyond ERA. Never said Urias wasn't good, just said he was in the same general profile as May perceptionally, but he stands out because he gets more whiffs. Missing bats at the highest level is the most important anti-regression stat available. You can continue to harp on the human element (another boomer cliche) but everything is captured in statistics. Literally everything. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is the same exact leverage situation as doing it in the seventh inning. If clutch was a real statistic, how come the same "clutch" players don't factor into win probability on a yearly basis? Yes, I'm going to side with Bill James and Tom Tango over JohnEAztec. You said that Urias would regress just like May. He's in the same boat as May. The only difference is that he whiffs more batters and he's a lefty. Sheesh, here we go again with you not telling the whole story of your posts. It's gets old. That's covered under "perceptionally" in case you were wondering, assuming the person can read basic stats off a website. One start against the Padres lowered Urias' expected ERA by over a full run.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:34:58 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 14:34:58 GMT -8
Reading comprehension, yourself, much? I never said it was a stat. I said that it's a human element factor. You either have it or you don't. Some people don't tighten as much, or can be more hyper focused than others in those situations, in all sports. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is a MUCH different thing than getting a clutch hit in the top or bottom of the ninth with the winning run in scoring position. I shouldn't have to explain why to you, but I may have to. Let me know. There's certain players that have a tendency to come through in the clutch, than other players. Like I said, you'll never get it, or won't want to get it, since you're so entrenched in metrics. Very unfortunate. Sure, point me to those players. Oh wait...you can't. I can't? Ok, Mr Know It All. All you have to do is Google the most clutch hitters in baseball. Apparently, it's a thing.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:40:42 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 14:40:42 GMT -8
You said that Urias would regress just like May. He's in the same boat as May. The only difference is that he whiffs more batters and he's a lefty. Sheesh, here we go again with you not telling the whole story of your posts. It's gets old. That's covered under "perceptionally" in case you were wondering, assuming the person can read basic stats off a website. One start against the Padres lowered Urias' expected ERA by over a full run. My point is that you are saying Urias isn't any good, without telling me Urias isn't any good. You lumped him in with May, most definitely, in that post. Now, you can back track. It's expected.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:48:01 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 14:48:01 GMT -8
That's covered under "perceptionally" in case you were wondering, assuming the person can read basic stats off a website. One start against the Padres lowered Urias' expected ERA by over a full run. My point is that you are saying Urias isn't any good, without telling me Urias isn't any good. You lumped him in with May, most definitely, in that post. Now, you can back track. It's expected. Not backtracking. Said May isn't good. Said Urias was in the same boat in terms of regression but he misses more bats, which is accurate. You can dissect every single word if you want, the Internet isn't that serious. Let's get back to Soto so you don't hijack two threads.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:54:39 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 14:54:39 GMT -8
My point is that you are saying Urias isn't any good, without telling me Urias isn't any good. You lumped him in with May, most definitely, in that post. Now, you can back track. It's expected. Not backtracking. Said May isn't good. Said Urias was in the same boat in terms of regression but he misses more bats, which is accurate. You can dissect every single word if you want, the Internet isn't that serious. Let's get back to Soto so you don't hijack two threads. Too funny. I hijacked the thread??? Look at the posts, then in the mirror for your answer. You're the one that brought up the question with Betts in it. Lol.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:57:56 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 14:57:56 GMT -8
My point is that you are saying Urias isn't any good, without telling me Urias isn't any good. You lumped him in with May, most definitely, in that post. Now, you can back track. It's expected. Not backtracking. Said May isn't good. Said Urias was in the same boat in terms of regression but he misses more bats, which is accurate. You can dissect every single word if you want, the Internet isn't that serious. Let's get back to Soto so you don't hijack two threads. Backtracking at its finest, but very see through.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 14:58:54 GMT -8
Post by junior on May 8, 2023 14:58:54 GMT -8
What numbers explain precisely why Soto has disappeared into the dumpster since his arrival in San Diego? One thing I wanted to add and why I think the "eyeball test" is extremely flawed when it comes to something like this. First, we remember what we saw last. It impacts perspective and decision-making heavily. All we've seen this season with Soto is him taking a TON of called third strikes, especially in the bottom of the zone. It seems like he's never swinging the bat, right? Rewind to 2021, when Soto hit over .300 and posted a stellar season across the board with nearly 30 homers and an OBP north of .450. His swing percentage that year? 35. You know what his swing rate in 2023? 35.3%. Yes, the recency issue is robust. Swing rate still doesn't tell us why he's in the dumpster since joining the Padres, though it might help exclude that as one of the reasons. His BABIP fell precipitously last year with both teams, and it's barely changed this year. Maybe the shift changed things, but there's no longer a shift, and the huge drop compared to his early career (well, he's still early career, but his first 3-4 years) can't be ignored. It's way below league average right now - and was last at a great number in 2020. He's down more than 100 points from that now, and he's about 50 points below his career average since he arrived in San Diego. So are we now back to "bad luck"?
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Soto
May 8, 2023 15:10:24 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 15:10:24 GMT -8
One thing I wanted to add and why I think the "eyeball test" is extremely flawed when it comes to something like this. First, we remember what we saw last. It impacts perspective and decision-making heavily. All we've seen this season with Soto is him taking a TON of called third strikes, especially in the bottom of the zone. It seems like he's never swinging the bat, right? Rewind to 2021, when Soto hit over .300 and posted a stellar season across the board with nearly 30 homers and an OBP north of .450. His swing percentage that year? 35. You know what his swing rate in 2023? 35.3%. Yes, the recency issue is robust. Swing rate still doesn't tell us why he's in the dumpster since joining the Padres, though it might help exclude that as one of the reasons. His BABIP fell precipitously last year with both teams, and it's barely changed this year. Maybe the shift changed things, but there's no longer a shift, and the huge drop compared to his early career (well, he's still early career, but his first 3-4 years) can't be ignored. It's way below league average right now - and was last at a great number in 2020. He's down more than 100 points from that now, and he's about 50 points below his career average since he arrived in San Diego. So are we now back to "bad luck"? No. From page 3: "Except it does. There are four core issues right now: First, he's striking out at a career high rate. Secondly, his infield popup rate is > 13%. His line drive rate is 6%, astronomically low and his outside the zone contact rate (ability to put bat to ball when it's not in the zone) is down nearly 20% from last season. You add that together and it explains everything. His swing is violent, the barrel is dragging through the zone and his body is trying to compensate for that." As I said a while back, I don't think the shift ban is going to lead to appreciably higher BABIP numbers. You can still manipulate your defense. Infield popups, an increased strikeout rate, a low line drive percentage and not putting bat to ball when the ball is out of the zone equal what you see right now.
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Post by aardvark on May 8, 2023 15:11:37 GMT -8
Soto has underperformed since becoming a Padre. Betts would still be my choice. Fascinating. You asked the original question. That is my answer.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 16:06:50 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 16:06:50 GMT -8
You asked the original question. That is my answer. Gotta love those condescending answers he gives, huh? Sheesh.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 16:09:38 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 16:09:38 GMT -8
You asked the original question. That is my answer. Gotta love those condescending answers he gives, huh? Sheesh. It wasn't condescending at all. I put the same question out on social media yesterday without revealing the player's identities. Not everything is a conspiracy. Most will choose Betts based off name alone and in the midst of Soto's extended slump. Numbers are a fascinating endeavor.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 16:45:33 GMT -8
Post by aardvark on May 8, 2023 16:45:33 GMT -8
Gotta love those condescending answers he gives, huh? Sheesh. It wasn't condescending at all. I put the same question out on social media yesterday without revealing the player's identities. Not everything is a conspiracy. Most will choose Betts based off name alone and in the midst of Soto's extended slump. Numbers are a fascinating endeavor. The thing is, the numbers have regressed for both Betts and Soto after the move west, but the numbers for Betts have been much closer to his Boston numbers than the numbers are for Soto, compared to his Washington numbers.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 16:52:23 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 16:52:23 GMT -8
Gotta love those condescending answers he gives, huh? Sheesh. It wasn't condescending at all. I put the same question out on social media yesterday without revealing the player's identities. Not everything is a conspiracy. Most will choose Betts based off name alone and in the midst of Soto's extended slump. Numbers are a fascinating endeavor. Uh huh.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 17:23:10 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 17:23:10 GMT -8
It wasn't condescending at all. I put the same question out on social media yesterday without revealing the player's identities. Not everything is a conspiracy. Most will choose Betts based off name alone and in the midst of Soto's extended slump. Numbers are a fascinating endeavor. The thing is, the numbers have regressed for both Betts and Soto after the move west, but the numbers for Betts have been much closer to his Boston numbers than the numbers are for Soto, compared to his Washington numbers. Well, Betts has 1,000+ more plate appearances, but yeah, he stabilized and acclimated more quickly to LA. His first three months there weren't spectacular, though.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 17:36:41 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 17:36:41 GMT -8
It wasn't condescending at all. I put the same question out on social media yesterday without revealing the player's identities. Not everything is a conspiracy. Most will choose Betts based off name alone and in the midst of Soto's extended slump. Numbers are a fascinating endeavor. The thing is, the numbers have regressed for both Betts and Soto after the move west, but the numbers for Betts have been much closer to his Boston numbers than the numbers are for Soto, compared to his Washington numbers. I just checked the splits post-trade. Soto slugged just over .200 at Petco last season. That's going to leave a mark.
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