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Soto
May 8, 2023 8:51:17 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 8:51:17 GMT -8
Like the article says, I agree that clutch hitting isn't a stat. It's something that some have a knack for over others. I remember Bert (Campy) Campaneris, who is someone they brought up in the article, that if you're rooting for the A's, you want him up to bat in a clutch situation over the bigger stars. He seemed to come through more often than not. It's a real thing. Not repeatable equals not real. Just like up and down years for someone's average, RBIs, Home runs, etc, so can a usual clutch performer have a down year in that category.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 8:52:52 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 8:52:52 GMT -8
Not repeatable equals not real. Just like up and down years for someone's average, RBIs, Home runs, etc, so can a usual clutch performer have a down year in that category. .....Which makes it not real.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 8:57:02 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 8:57:02 GMT -8
Just like up and down years for someone's average, RBIs, Home runs, etc, so can a usual clutch performer have a down year in that category. .....Which makes it not real. So the other stats aren't real?
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Soto
May 8, 2023 9:11:43 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 9:11:43 GMT -8
.....Which makes it not real. So the other stats aren't real? Read the article. You're making a beyond silly argument here. If "clutch" is real, it has to be real *all* the time. It can't be something that slumps. Guys don't become clutch one year and decide "Well, damn. I'm going to stop doing that." Batting average is determined by quality of contact, defensive positioning and luck. It's a rate stat. Counting stats (like runs batted in) are just a sum being provided. You can have variability in both, based off the extraneous factors above. There's no variability in "clutch" because that's called "luck."
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Soto
May 8, 2023 10:30:58 GMT -8
Post by aardvark on May 8, 2023 10:30:58 GMT -8
Betts just hit a home run to tie the game. Soto better hope he can do the same to win it. But that'll be up to the Padres bullpen. Would you rather have Betts or Soto, assuming the salaries are equal? The salaries are within a few million of each other this season. With that in mind, my pick would be Betts.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 10:33:18 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 10:33:18 GMT -8
Would you rather have Betts or Soto, assuming the salaries are equal? The salaries are within a few million of each other this season. With that in mind, my pick would be Betts. Most would take Betts, even though their wRC+ figures are nearly identical and Betts has been worse than Soto since 2021.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 10:41:32 GMT -8
Post by aardvark on May 8, 2023 10:41:32 GMT -8
The salaries are within a few million of each other this season. With that in mind, my pick would be Betts. Most would take Betts, even though their wRC+ figures are nearly identical and Betts has been worse than Soto since 2021. Soto has underperformed since becoming a Padre. Betts would still be my choice.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 10:59:55 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 10:59:55 GMT -8
Most would take Betts, even though their wRC+ figures are nearly identical and Betts has been worse than Soto since 2021. Soto has underperformed since becoming a Padre. Betts would still be my choice. Fascinating.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 11:04:32 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 11:04:32 GMT -8
Would you rather have Betts or Soto, assuming the salaries are equal? The salaries are within a few million of each other this season. With that in mind, my pick would be Betts. I would take Soto if we're talking about long term. Soto 24, Betts 30. If I had to pick for one year, I would go with Betts, not only for offensive reasons, but defensive, as well. Betts can come up clutch quite often, both with the bat, and also for coming up with the clutch defensive play.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 11:07:29 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 11:07:29 GMT -8
The salaries are within a few million of each other this season. With that in mind, my pick would be Betts. I would take Soto if we're talking about long term. Soto 24, Betts 30. If I had to pick for one year, I would go with Betts, not only for offensive reasons, but defensive, as well. Betts can come up clutch quite often, both with the bat, and also for coming up with the clutch defensive play. Great. Except clutch isn't real, so yeah.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 11:18:46 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 11:18:46 GMT -8
I would take Soto if we're talking about long term. Soto 24, Betts 30. If I had to pick for one year, I would go with Betts, not only for offensive reasons, but defensive, as well. Betts can come up clutch quite often, both with the bat, and also for coming up with the clutch defensive play. Great. Except clutch isn't real, so yeah. You do understand that there's certain people who don't tighten up, or choke very often in pressure situations, don't you? They thrive in those situations. They're confident in those situations. You don't ever take the human element into these types of things. You've been called out for that many times, and it's wrong not to. Have you ever heard of the saying in football,"He always seems to find the ball." " He always seems to make the big play." "He has a nose for the ball." That's the guy that will come up clutch with a big interception, fumble recovery, etc.... It's a real thing, but you're too locked into your metrics, etc, unfortunately.
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Post by junior on May 8, 2023 11:23:56 GMT -8
There are times when eyeball significance may be as important as statistical significance … The Soto charade may end up being one of these times … the data really doesn't explain the sudden - and prolonged - changes in Soto's game. Saying "He should be better" based on the past and ignoring what's happening in real time is how people like Thomas Dewey become President of the United States - at least in Chicago…
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:02:46 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 12:02:46 GMT -8
There are times when eyeball significance may be as important as statistical significance … The Soto charade may end up being one of these times … the data really doesn't explain the sudden - and prolonged - changes in Soto's game. Saying "He should be better" based on the past and ignoring what's happening in real time is how people like Thomas Dewey become President of the United States - at least in Chicago… Except it does. There are four core issues right now: First, he's striking out at a career high rate. Secondly, his infield popup rate is > 13%. His line drive rate is 6%, astronomically low and his outside the zone contact rate (ability to put bat to ball when it's not in the zone) is down nearly 20% from last season. You add that together and it explains everything. His swing is violent, the barrel is dragging through the zone and his body is trying to compensate for that.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:08:27 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 12:08:27 GMT -8
Great. Except clutch isn't real, so yeah. You do understand that there's certain people who don't tighten up, or choke very often in pressure situations, don't you? They thrive in those situations. They're confident in those situations. You don't ever take the human element into these types of things. You've been called out for that many times, and it's wrong not to. Have you ever heard of the saying in football,"He always seems to find the ball." " He always seems to make the big play." "He has a nose for the ball." That's the guy that will come up clutch with a big interception, fumble recovery, etc.... It's a real thing, but you're too locked into your metrics, etc, unfortunately. Have I heard of tired cliches that aren't quantifiable and don't show up in data? Yes. Does it mean anything? Absolutely not. You tried to tell me when Hosmer was on the roster that he was "clutch." If it isn't repeatable, it's not a real thing. Point blank. It's noise. Look up "leverage indices" and you'll understand this better. Some players are just better than others. That's what happens with natural ability and athleticism not being dished out equally. "Some baseball analysts, including Bill James, Pete Palmer and Dick Cramer, and the editors of Baseball Prospectus, have concluded that clutch hitting is a myth." Because it is.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:09:25 GMT -8
Post by junior on May 8, 2023 12:09:25 GMT -8
What numbers explain precisely why Soto has disappeared into the dumpster since his arrival in San Diego?
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:15:34 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 12:15:34 GMT -8
What numbers explain precisely why Soto has disappeared into the dumpster since his arrival in San Diego? I added context to the post above, but I don't think it's right to not place some blame on organizational process, either. Of all the players the Padres have traded for since Petco opened, the only player to produce an OPS+ above 150 is Milton Bradley.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:40:06 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 12:40:06 GMT -8
You do understand that there's certain people who don't tighten up, or choke very often in pressure situations, don't you? They thrive in those situations. They're confident in those situations. You don't ever take the human element into these types of things. You've been called out for that many times, and it's wrong not to. Have you ever heard of the saying in football,"He always seems to find the ball." " He always seems to make the big play." "He has a nose for the ball." That's the guy that will come up clutch with a big interception, fumble recovery, etc.... It's a real thing, but you're too locked into your metrics, etc, unfortunately. Have I heard of tired cliches that aren't quantifiable and don't show up in data? Yes. Does it mean anything? Absolutely not. You tried to tell me when Hosmer was on the roster that he was "clutch." If it isn't repeatable, it's not a real thing. Point blank. It's noise. Look up "leverage indices" and you'll understand this better. Some players are just better than others. That's what happens with natural ability and athleticism not being dished out equally. "Some baseball analysts, including Bill James, Pete Palmer and Dick Cramer, and the editors of Baseball Prospectus, have concluded that clutch hitting is a myth." Because it is. You can keep going right on along with your metrics only thought, etc, and hang onto every word of the guys you've mentioned above, and at the same time bury your head in the sand concerning other factors. You'll continue to be wrong to not include the human element, just as you're flat out wrong saying that Urias and May are not any good, because of what the metrics say. There's proof right there that metrics aren't everything. But, you be you.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:45:22 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 8, 2023 12:45:22 GMT -8
What numbers explain precisely why Soto has disappeared into the dumpster since his arrival in San Diego? He can't. The reason is, because there's more to it than just numbers. He's committed himself for so long now to the notion that it's ALL about numbers, and now he can't come back from that, since he'll look like a hypocrite. Players aren't robots. There's plenty of players that rise to the occasion, and clutch up in pressure situations more so than other great players, because they don't tighten up. They can get hyper focused, and not choke. Those are some factors that don't show up in the metrics, etc....
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:53:19 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 12:53:19 GMT -8
Have I heard of tired cliches that aren't quantifiable and don't show up in data? Yes. Does it mean anything? Absolutely not. You tried to tell me when Hosmer was on the roster that he was "clutch." If it isn't repeatable, it's not a real thing. Point blank. It's noise. Look up "leverage indices" and you'll understand this better. Some players are just better than others. That's what happens with natural ability and athleticism not being dished out equally. "Some baseball analysts, including Bill James, Pete Palmer and Dick Cramer, and the editors of Baseball Prospectus, have concluded that clutch hitting is a myth." Because it is. You can keep going right on along with your metrics only thought, etc, and hang onto every word of the guys you've mentioned above, and at the same time bury your head in the sand concerning other factors. You'll continue to be wrong to not include the human element, just as you're flat out wrong saying that Urias and May are not any good, because of what the metrics say. There's proof right there that metrics aren't everything. But, you be you. May is a league average pitcher or below by any advanced metric. I'm sorry you can't look beyond ERA. Never said Urias wasn't good, just said he was in the same general profile as May perceptionally, but he stands out because he gets more whiffs. Missing bats at the highest level is the most important anti-regression stat available. You can continue to harp on the human element (another boomer cliche) but everything is captured in statistics. Literally everything. A guy getting a hit with the bases loaded in the first inning is the same exact leverage situation as doing it in the seventh inning. If clutch was a real statistic, how come the same "clutch" players don't factor into win probability on a yearly basis? Yes, I'm going to side with Bill James and Tom Tango over JohnEAztec.
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Soto
May 8, 2023 12:55:12 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 8, 2023 12:55:12 GMT -8
What numbers explain precisely why Soto has disappeared into the dumpster since his arrival in San Diego? He can't. The reason is, because there's more to it than just numbers. He's committed himself for so long now to the notion that it's ALL about numbers, and now he can't come back from that, since he'll look like a hypocrite. Players aren't robots. There's plenty of players that rise to the occasion, and clutch up in pressure situations more so than other great players, because they don't tighten up. They can get hyper focused, and not choke. Those are some factors that don't show up in the metrics, etc.... Like reading comprehension, apparently.
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