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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 8:46:44 GMT -8
Who could have seen the Dodgers sweep coming? Everyone. The Padres were down their top two starting pitchers in a shortened series against a juggernaut. Imagine the Mets starting a playoff series without Scherzer and deGrom and having to pivot to Chris Bassitt or Carlos Carrasco. It's not easy. Your idea of "production" is revolved around...what? For a chunk of the season, Juan Soto had 6 home runs and 7 RBI. Not a typo. He can't get guys on base in front of him on what is the worst team in baseball. There is literally nothing to indicate he has peaked. The OBP? Elite. The slugging percentage? Elite. The run creation? Elite. Would you feel better if he was performing to his expected numbers? Sure. Is it a sign of anything? Absolutely not. Also, LOL....Agents didn't come up with WAR or wRC+ - Sabermetricians did. It's an easy way to create a park adjusted metric across baseball to tell how a player's impact is actually felt. 100 is league average. Soto is 146, and has already a 201 season and a 163 season. He's #8 all-time on that list and every player above him is in the Hall of Fame or will be shortly. The league has caught on? Lol. He has a .400 OBP and is on pace for 30+ home runs in a year where you think he's terrible. Let's use some common sense here. He's walking at an elite rate, he's still generating power at a very high rate and still barreling the ball at an elite clip. Your entire argument is revolved around his batting average, which is outdated and unimportant. If he was hitting .290, his OBP would be in the mid-.430's. Are we still having this discussion then? No. Robert Hassell isn't Juan Soto. I love Robert Hassell. I've talked to his family. Great kid. He's not Juan Soto. His 99.9999999% outcome could be Soto-lite, but he'll be 21 in a month and a half. Soto won a batting title by hitting .351 in the majors at 21. If Soto isn't worth trading the farm for...who is? Historically speaking, the team that lands the superstar ALWAYS wins these deals. They get the established guy. The other team rebuilds and takes on risk for years down the road. Ummmmm... When did I say Soto was terrible? Are you on drugs? It's either that, or you've resorted to lies and distortions to desperately try to win this debate. If you think it's impossible for pitchers to catch on to what works against batters, then you haven't been watching baseball over the last 50 years. It happens. All the time. What it sounds like, though, is that you think it's impossible for pitchers to catch up with Soto and figure him out. Like he's transcendent. He's a kid. It's WAY too early to deify him as a player. I've seen a lot of guys get hot, then cool off and settle in to an average or just above average range for the rest of their careers. It happens. A lot. You don't seem to believe he can be less than Hall of Fame level. OK, that's fine. We'll see. I'm saying that on a team with multiple holes (could use probably 3 new relievers as our bullpen is $#!+, and another outfielder - one who can actually hit), putting all of your hopes on ONE GUY to come in and transform the team into a World Series Champion is silly. What got the 1984 and 1998 Padres into the World Series? It wasn't numbers. They were truly TEAMS. They were like family. They had that ingangible thing where they wanted to win for each other. They wanted the other guys on the team to succeed just as much as they wanted to succeed themselves. There was unity and camaraderie. That's the thing your love of advanced player metrics totally misses. Would Soto bring that kind of camaraderie to the table, or is he a self centered player more concerned about himself and future contracts than his teammates? Because if he isn't a selfless player and his attitude isn't team oriented, he won't be that piece of the puzzle tht you seem to think he will be. I know nothing about his personality or how good he is with his teammates. But if I were Preller I'd sure want to know everything about his personality and psyche. That's just as important as the metrics. Moreso, in a lot of ways. Great players can sometimes be divisive and create a toxic environment on a team that makes it impossible for them to meet their potential. Lies and distortion? You think he's having a down year and yet you've been unable to answer why or attach any level of context to that argument. I was being sarcastic with "terrible"...but the point stands. You're shifting goalposts and ignoring the basic premise of value. Recency bias is a thing. The bullpen, among many this year, has had ups and downs. But if you think a couple of relievers are somehow going to outweigh a Soto move...I can only laugh. An absolutely ELITE bullpen is worth 5.5-6 WAR. That's less than Juan Soto averages by himself. And now we're devolving into random hypotheticals about attitude. I guess we can't ignore facts forever.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 8:48:15 GMT -8
Correct, I forgot his age-35 season. And if he opts out, it's to re-sign here. Is it? Couldn't he sign for 5 years somewhere else at an AAV higher than what he is guaranteed with the Padres? You think he's going to leave for an additional couple million dollars? He's laid down roots here and has been consistent with his messaging. He'll be 32 during the 2024 season. I have a hard time seeing a team give him greater than 5/150.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 8:59:26 GMT -8
We'll see what happens. I dont see Soto as being the difference maker who brings a WS title to the Padres. They need more than just one player. They need relievers and TWO outfielders. Soto would likely make the team better, no question, but he can't make up for the other holes in the roster.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 31, 2022 9:05:42 GMT -8
Is it? Couldn't he sign for 5 years somewhere else at an AAV higher than what he is guaranteed with the Padres? You think he's going to leave for an additional couple million dollars? He's laid down roots here and has been consistent with his messaging. He'll be 32 during the 2024 season. I have a hard time seeing a team give him greater than 5/150. I doubt he leaves either, but it depends on the market, and the number of millions of dollars more he might get elsewhere.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 9:06:59 GMT -8
We'll see what happens. I dont see Soto as being the difference maker who brings a WS title to the Padres. They need more than just one player. They need relievers and TWO outfielders. Soto would likely make the team better, no question, but he can't make up for the other holes in the roster. They don't need two outfielders if they get Soto. Soto takes the onus off of Grisham and you can platoon center field if need be. Profar is fine in left. They don't really need relievers, either. Suarez is set to return in a couple days, Pierce Johnson soon after, Pomeranz as well. I'm sure they'll try to acquire a depth arm in the pen just because of innings management.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 9:07:49 GMT -8
You think he's going to leave for an additional couple million dollars? He's laid down roots here and has been consistent with his messaging. He'll be 32 during the 2024 season. I have a hard time seeing a team give him greater than 5/150. I doubt he leaves either, but it depends on the market, and the number of millions of dollars more he might get elsewhere. The only thing that changes for me is the Hosmer situation. I doubt Manny leaves for financial reasons.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 9:10:27 GMT -8
We'll see what happens. I dont see Soto as being the difference maker who brings a WS title to the Padres. They need more than just one player. They need relievers and TWO outfielders. Soto would likely make the team better, no question, but he can't make up for the other holes in the roster. They don't need two outfielders if they get Soto. Soto takes the onus off of Grisham and you can platoon center field if need be. Profar is fine in left. They don't really need relievers, either. Suarez is set to return in a couple days, Pierce Johnson soon after, Pomeranz as well. I'm sure they'll try to acquire a depth arm in the pen just because of innings management. A.) Grisham is $#!+, offensively. He needs to go. I've said that since April, and he's done nothing to prove otherwise. He's a liability. They need two new outfielders. B.) They need multiple relievers. This bullpen is crap. You tell me, though - are the guys coming back really significantly better than the guys pitching in relief right now? I mean significantly better?
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 9:13:53 GMT -8
They don't need two outfielders if they get Soto. Soto takes the onus off of Grisham and you can platoon center field if need be. Profar is fine in left. They don't really need relievers, either. Suarez is set to return in a couple days, Pierce Johnson soon after, Pomeranz as well. I'm sure they'll try to acquire a depth arm in the pen just because of innings management. A.) Grisham is $#!+, offensively. He needs to go. I've said that since April, and he's done nothing to prove otherwise. He's a liability. They need two new outfielders. B.) They need multiple relievers. This bullpen is crap. You tell me, though - are the guys coming back really significantly better than the guys pitching in relief right now? I mean significantly better? Grisham isn't going anywhere unless he's traded in a package. They aren't going to give up on the skillset. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I think the bullpen is fine and the guys coming back will help significantly. Johnson has been terrific, Suarez is an impact guy. Bullpens are volatile. Josh Hader has the worst ERA of any reliever since June. He was the best reliever the last two years. Does he suddenly suck? No.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 9:20:23 GMT -8
A.) Grisham is $#!+, offensively. He needs to go. I've said that since April, and he's done nothing to prove otherwise. He's a liability. They need two new outfielders. B.) They need multiple relievers. This bullpen is crap. You tell me, though - are the guys coming back really significantly better than the guys pitching in relief right now? I mean significantly better? Grisham isn't going anywhere unless he's traded in a package. They aren't going to give up on the skillset. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Grisham doesn't just hurt me, as a fan, he hurts you, too. He's absolutely worthless, offensively. A total liability. I hope if they trade for Soto that he's included in the deal. He's garbage. You're supposed to get offensive production out of your outfield. We're not talking about a shortstop here. Ozzie Smith was one of the all time great defensive shortstops, and that's why he had the career he did. If he had been an outfielder hitting like that he wouldn't have made it in the majors. Grisham is garbage, offensively. Skillset. What is his skillset? Hitting to the opposing team's fielders? I hope you're right. But, sometimes players go into a funk and never fully get out of it. Sometimes it's just a slump. And I hope the guys coming back are as good as you think they are.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 31, 2022 9:27:05 GMT -8
Grisham isn't going anywhere unless he's traded in a package. They aren't going to give up on the skillset. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Grisham doesn't just hurt me, as a fan, he hurts you, too. He's absolutely worthless, offensively. A total liability. I hope if they trade for Soto that he's included in the deal. He's garbage. You're supposed to get offensive production out of your outfield. We're not talking about a shortstop here. Ozzie Smith was one of the all time great defensive shortstops, and that's why he had the career he did. If he had been an outfielder hitting like that he wouldn't have made it in the majors. Grisham is garbage, offensively. Skillset. What is his skillset? Hitting to the opposing team's fielders? I hope you're right. But, sometimes players go into a funk and never fully get out of it. Sometimes it's just a slump. And I hope the guys coming back are as good as you think they are. I believe that Soto is a generalization talent. He's going to have an incredible career. You include whoever you need to include in the trade package to get him. Johnson and Pomeranz have been outstandingly and I can't wait until they're back. We need them.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 9:28:29 GMT -8
Grisham isn't going anywhere unless he's traded in a package. They aren't going to give up on the skillset. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Grisham doesn't just hurt me, as a fan, he hurts you, too. He's absolutely worthless, offensively. A total liability. I hope if they trade for Soto that he's included in the deal. He's garbage. You're supposed to get offensive production out of your outfield. We're not talking about a shortstop here. Ozzie Smith was one of the all time great defensive shortstops, and that's why he had the career he did. If he had been an outfielder hitting like that he wouldn't have made it in the majors. Grisham is garbage, offensively. Skillset. What is his skillset? Hitting to the opposing team's fielders? I hope you're right. But, sometimes players go into a funk and never fully get out of it. Sometimes it's just a slump. And I hope the guys coming back are as good as you think they are. The numbers speak.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 9:33:06 GMT -8
Grisham doesn't just hurt me, as a fan, he hurts you, too. He's absolutely worthless, offensively. A total liability. I hope if they trade for Soto that he's included in the deal. He's garbage. You're supposed to get offensive production out of your outfield. We're not talking about a shortstop here. Ozzie Smith was one of the all time great defensive shortstops, and that's why he had the career he did. If he had been an outfielder hitting like that he wouldn't have made it in the majors. Grisham is garbage, offensively. Skillset. What is his skillset? Hitting to the opposing team's fielders? I hope you're right. But, sometimes players go into a funk and never fully get out of it. Sometimes it's just a slump. And I hope the guys coming back are as good as you think they are. The numbers speak. And, sometimes, numbers lie. A player with great numbers can sometimes hurt a team. Bad, selfish attitude, or just being an a-hole that no one likes - sometimes guys become locker room cancers and destroy team unity. You have to look at all facets of a player. You don't just go by numbers. Attitude and personality are just as important.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 9:33:26 GMT -8
Grisham isn't going anywhere unless he's traded in a package. They aren't going to give up on the skillset. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Grisham doesn't just hurt me, as a fan, he hurts you, too. He's absolutely worthless, offensively. A total liability. I hope if they trade for Soto that he's included in the deal. He's garbage. You're supposed to get offensive production out of your outfield. We're not talking about a shortstop here. Ozzie Smith was one of the all time great defensive shortstops, and that's why he had the career he did. If he had been an outfielder hitting like that he wouldn't have made it in the majors. Grisham is garbage, offensively. Skillset. What is his skillset? Hitting to the opposing team's fielders? I hope you're right. But, sometimes players go into a funk and never fully get out of it. Sometimes it's just a slump. And I hope the guys coming back are as good as you think they are. Among the players to be worse offensively than Trent Grisham this year: Nick Castellanos, Javy Baez, Marcell Ozuna, Nelson Cruz, Whit Merrifield, Adam Frazier...and the list goes on for a while.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 9:34:13 GMT -8
And, sometimes, numbers lie. A player with great numbers can sometimes hurt a team. Bad, selfish attitude, or just being an a-hole that no one likes - sometimes guys become locker room cancers and destroy team unity. You have to look at all facets of a player. You don't just go by numbers. Attitude and personality are just as important. Making up random hypotheticals doesn't change the story. It just weakens your position. But you're validating the Eric Hosmer experiment, certainly.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 9:37:07 GMT -8
And, sometimes, numbers lie. A player with great numbers can sometimes hurt a team. Bad, selfish attitude, or just being an a-hole that no one likes - sometimes guys become locker room cancers and destroy team unity. You have to look at all facets of a player. You don't just go by numbers. Attitude and personality are just as important. Making up random hypotheticals doesn't change the story. It just weakens your position. But you're validating the Eric Hosmer experiment, certainly. Dude, come on. Were the 1984 Padres really the most talented team in the National League that year? Hell, no! But they were the most cohesive and were a true TEAM. An extended family. The same can be said of the 1998 Padres. It's often not the most talented team that wins, but the most cohesive team with the best locker room atmosphere. Sports are just as much mental as they are physical.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 9:42:32 GMT -8
Making up random hypotheticals doesn't change the story. It just weakens your position. But you're validating the Eric Hosmer experiment, certainly. Dude, come on. Were the 1984 Padres really the most talented team in the National League that year? Hell, no! But they were the most cohesive and were a true TEAM. An extended family. The same can be said of the 1998 Padres. It's often not the most talented team that wins, but the most cohesive team with the best locker room atmosphere. Sports are just as much mental as they are physical. I wasn't alive in 1984, so I don't really care, honestly. The 1998 Padres had a ton of talent. Playoffs are about matchups and execution. You are derailing the argument by shifting into intangibles. My entire point is that Pierce Johnson has been very good for the last two seasons. Suarez was highly regarded coming in from Japan. Do I know if they are assholes? No. But I've seen nothing to indicate that. I've discussed at length on here that I think there is some clubhouse strife (again) which has been a repeated pattern over the last three or four years. I'm not in any way downplaying that. There's no real leader in the clubhouse.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 9:50:29 GMT -8
Dude, come on. Were the 1984 Padres really the most talented team in the National League that year? Hell, no! But they were the most cohesive and were a true TEAM. An extended family. The same can be said of the 1998 Padres. It's often not the most talented team that wins, but the most cohesive team with the best locker room atmosphere. Sports are just as much mental as they are physical. I wasn't alive in 1984, so I don't really care, honestly. The 1998 Padres had a ton of talent. Playoffs are about matchups and execution. You are derailing the argument by shifting into intangibles. My entire point is that Pierce Johnson has been very good for the last two seasons. Suarez was highly regarded coming in from Japan. Do I know if they are assholes? No. But I've seen nothing to indicate that. I've discussed at length on here that I think there is some clubhouse strife (again) which has been a repeated pattern over the last three or four years. I'm not in any way downplaying that. There's no real leader in the clubhouse. You weren't born yet in '84? And you, "Don't care," about the '84 Padres? No wonder you don't get it. Playoffs are not just about matchups and execution. They're about teamwork and camaraderie. The '84 and '98 Padres made it to the World Series because they didn't have conflict in the locker room. They were a cohesive team that got along like extended family. They wanted to win for each other, not for themselves. That is a HUGE part of success in sports, and you clearly don't understand that. It's not just about numbers and skillsets.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 10:10:20 GMT -8
I wasn't alive in 1984, so I don't really care, honestly. The 1998 Padres had a ton of talent. Playoffs are about matchups and execution. You are derailing the argument by shifting into intangibles. My entire point is that Pierce Johnson has been very good for the last two seasons. Suarez was highly regarded coming in from Japan. Do I know if they are assholes? No. But I've seen nothing to indicate that. I've discussed at length on here that I think there is some clubhouse strife (again) which has been a repeated pattern over the last three or four years. I'm not in any way downplaying that. There's no real leader in the clubhouse. You weren't born yet in '84? And you, "Don't care," about the '84 Padres? No wonder you don't get it. Playoffs are not just about matchups and execution. They're about teamwork and camaraderie. The '84 and '98 Padres made it to the World Series because they didn't have conflict in the locker room. They were a cohesive team that got along like extended family. They wanted to win for each other, not for themselves. That is a HUGE part of success in sports, and you clearly don't understand that. It's not just about numbers and skillsets. I think I'm the only one who does get it. Old school people (I hear this argument all the time) want to point to things that are abstract and not quantifiable. I literally just said I'm not downplaying that. I think you're overplaying it. Winning solves a lot. Since we've gotten way off topic, I'll leave it at that.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 10:12:00 GMT -8
Maybe the best way to put it is this...
Math doesn't win championships.
Intangibles win championships.
Talent and numbers are important, but it's coaching and teamwork and camaraderie that turns a good or great team into a championship team.
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Post by docmm on Jul 31, 2022 11:13:17 GMT -8
Grisham doesn't just hurt me, as a fan, he hurts you, too. He's absolutely worthless, offensively. A total liability. I hope if they trade for Soto that he's included in the deal. He's garbage. You're supposed to get offensive production out of your outfield. We're not talking about a shortstop here. Ozzie Smith was one of the all time great defensive shortstops, and that's why he had the career he did. If he had been an outfielder hitting like that he wouldn't have made it in the majors. Grisham is garbage, offensively. Skillset. What is his skillset? Hitting to the opposing team's fielders? I hope you're right. But, sometimes players go into a funk and never fully get out of it. Sometimes it's just a slump. And I hope the guys coming back are as good as you think they are. Among the players to be worse offensively than Trent Grisham this year: Nick Castellanos, Javy Baez, Marcell Ozuna, Nelson Cruz, Whit Merrifield, Adam Frazier...and the list goes on for a while. What criteria are you going on? The only guy on that list that is maybe worse is Frazier and his BA is still 50 points above Grisham's. And before you talk about what a great defender is, he's only the 7th best Center Fielder in the National League in Fielding % and tied for 11th (!!!!) in Assists. Grisham .191 10 HR 35 RBI Ozuna .219 18 HR 40 RBI Cruz .231 8 HR 52 RBI Castellanos .250 8 HR 47 RBI Merrifield .243 5 HR 40 RBI Baez .221 10 HR 39 RBI
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