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Post by junior on Apr 29, 2022 17:24:21 GMT -8
Hosmer is contributing to the stat parade quite well so far, and the Padres are #5 in Runs Scored with 91, and #3 in RBI - they're #1 in BB.
As a few more players' bats wake up, there should be good times ahead for Padres and Padres fans.
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 30, 2022 7:09:18 GMT -8
Hosmer is contributing to the stat parade quite well so far, and the Padres are #5 in Runs Scored with 91, and #3 in RBI - they're #1 in BB. As a few more players' bats wake up, there should be good times ahead for Padres and Padres fans. Yes, he's shutting some critics up around the league, for the time being. It's really good to see. It only helps the Padres who aren't the best offensive team, so far. His defense has been outstanding, as well. A lot of his outs are on hard hit balls, as well. He's squaring up, and barreling. If he can at least stay consistent throughout the year, (he's not going to hit 390 all year) and getting Tatis back with Machado raking, we should be fine. Need to get Grisham going. Couple that with Snell and Clevinger not missing a beat and performing well, the Pads will be a fun team to watch all year. Kim has been outstanding as well.
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Post by junior on Apr 30, 2022 15:31:19 GMT -8
Hosmer powers another one out of the park - completely to the opposite field. 3 runs score. Wow.
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 30, 2022 15:31:51 GMT -8
Hosmer strikes again!!! Stay hot babyyyy!!!
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Post by sdcoug on Apr 30, 2022 16:55:50 GMT -8
Its hilarious reading thru last year's Hosmer thread. Great to see him tweak a few things and playing incredibly well.
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 30, 2022 17:01:13 GMT -8
Its hilarious reading thru last year's Hosmer thread. Great to see him tweak a few things and playing incredibly well. I hear ya!!! It's great to see. The Padres need his production.
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Post by aardvark on Apr 30, 2022 17:55:45 GMT -8
And then...on a play he absolutely HAS to make at first in the 10th inning...
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 30, 2022 17:57:36 GMT -8
And then...on a play he absolutely HAS to make at first in the 10th inning... No bueno.
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Post by junior on Apr 30, 2022 18:05:11 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on May 3, 2022 8:58:20 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on May 3, 2022 9:39:03 GMT -8
Dang, that's a TON of information!!! Wow. Bottom line is, let's hope he can have a good consistent season.
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Post by aztecryan on May 3, 2022 9:45:11 GMT -8
Dang, that's a TON of information!!! Wow. Bottom line is, let's hope he can have a good consistent season. The relevant parts: "As you may have gathered from the graphs above, Hosmer is hitting the ball on the ground a whole lot. His 59.4% groundball rate is five points above his career mark, and just one point off his career high, set in 2018, while his 18.8% fly ball rate is a career low, about seven points below his career mark and nearly a full point below his previous low, also set in 2018. That 3.17 groundball-to-fly ball ratio has been surpassed just 20 times by qualified hitters since 2002, as far back as our batted ball splits go. For the sake of clarity I have omitted four other qualifiers from this young season with even higher GB/FB ratios, namely Randy Arozarena, Garrett Cooper, Nathaniel Lowe, and Sheldon Neuse — a tip-off that such rates are so extreme that they’re rarely maintained. As you can see some players maintain ratios even more extreme than Hosmer, with higher groundball rates and/or lower fly ball rates, and some of those players even manage to be more productive than league average, but nine of the 20 who carried ratios higher than 3.17 over a 162-game season had a wRC+ below 100, and all of them save for the two members of the 3,000 hit club, Jeter and Suzuki, had a 120 wRC+ or lower. Hosmer’s not going to keep up with a 200 wRC+ — shocking, I know — but the combination of his actual stats and his Depth Charts rest-of-season ones still yields a .285/.348/.443 line, a significant improvement from his preseason forecast .262/.324/.410, eyeballing somewhere in the 130-140 range wRC+-wise under the current neo-deadball era conditions. That will play. Hosmer’s slash line is driven by a .426 BABIP, which is in a virtual tie with teammate Manny Machado for the major’s fourth-highest. He’s got a .368 BABIP on grounders, well above baseball’s .224 mark and his own .245 career mark. Again, he’s not likely to maintain that, particularly given his 24th-percentile sprint speed. Statcast-wise, Hosmer’s 87.1 mph average exit velocity is more than three ticks below last year’s average, placing him only in the 25th percentile, while his 6.3% barrel rate is in the 39th percentile; his 44.4% hard-hit rate is good for the 68th percentile. The contrast between those last two placements makes sense, as hard-hit rate includes all balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or more, many of which are routine groundouts with minimal (or even negative) launch angles, while barrel rate includes only balls with the launch angle/exit velo combos that produce an xBA of at least .500 and an xSLG of at least 1.500. If there’s any surprise regarding Hosmer’s Statcast expected numbers, it’s not that he’s far ahead of them — the leaderboards are full of such hitters — it’s that his .310 xBA and .470 xSLG are still more than respectable even given his groundball-heavy ways. It’s not as though he’s tapping into the new market inefficiency by hitting the ball on the ground so often; major league hitters are batting .231 and slugging .252 on groundballs this year, numbers that are respectively eight and nine points below last year’s marks, and 15 and 16 points below those from 2015-21 combined. So how is it that Hosmer is so productive given the extent to which he’s wearing out the dirt and the grass? For one thing, he’s pulling the ball more than ever; his 45.3% clip is over 11 points above his career mark and, seven points above his career high, set in 2011. He’s pulling the ball in the air more than ever as well. We’ll see if that continues; right now, we’re talking about just a couple of handfuls of batted balls in a three-week span. Looking elsewhere to see what’s different about Homser, a few other things stand out. His 10.6% walk rate and 14.1% strikeout rate are both much better than his career norms (8.1% and 17.7%); he’s doing that while chasing a career-high 36.5% of pitches outside the zone. The combination strikes me as unsustainable (no pun intended), but on the other hand, he’s seeing just 35.7% of pitches in the zone, about five points below his career mark and currently the seventh-lowest rate among qualifiers in the majors — halfway between Juan Soto (34.9%) and Mike Trout (36.5%), two hitters to whom he should never be compared under normal circumstances. A couple more things stand out thus far. Hosmer has basically been unplayable against lefties, owning a career .253/.299/.369 (81 wRC+) mark against them, and a 84 wRC+ against them last year. With Voit sidelined by a biceps tendon injury (and generally DHing before then), Hosmer has started seven of the Padres’ nine games against southpaws, and is just annihilating them at a .440/.481/.640 clip through 27 PA. He’s 4-for-9 against Dodgers lefties Tyler Anderson, Justin Bruihl, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Julio Urías, and Alex Vesia, with no more than one hit against any of them; meanwhile, he’s 3-for-5 with a homer against the Reds’ Reiver Sanmartin, a guy with a 13.78 ERA and 6.70 FIP overall. Don’t expect this to continue.
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Post by johneaztec on May 3, 2022 10:41:21 GMT -8
Dang, that's a TON of information!!! Wow. Bottom line is, let's hope he can have a good consistent season. The relevant parts: "As you may have gathered from the graphs above, Hosmer is hitting the ball on the ground a whole lot. His 59.4% groundball rate is five points above his career mark, and just one point off his career high, set in 2018, while his 18.8% fly ball rate is a career low, about seven points below his career mark and nearly a full point below his previous low, also set in 2018. That 3.17 groundball-to-fly ball ratio has been surpassed just 20 times by qualified hitters since 2002, as far back as our batted ball splits go. For the sake of clarity I have omitted four other qualifiers from this young season with even higher GB/FB ratios, namely Randy Arozarena, Garrett Cooper, Nathaniel Lowe, and Sheldon Neuse — a tip-off that such rates are so extreme that they’re rarely maintained. As you can see some players maintain ratios even more extreme than Hosmer, with higher groundball rates and/or lower fly ball rates, and some of those players even manage to be more productive than league average, but nine of the 20 who carried ratios higher than 3.17 over a 162-game season had a wRC+ below 100, and all of them save for the two members of the 3,000 hit club, Jeter and Suzuki, had a 120 wRC+ or lower. Hosmer’s not going to keep up with a 200 wRC+ — shocking, I know — but the combination of his actual stats and his Depth Charts rest-of-season ones still yields a .285/.348/.443 line, a significant improvement from his preseason forecast .262/.324/.410, eyeballing somewhere in the 130-140 range wRC+-wise under the current neo-deadball era conditions. That will play. Hosmer’s slash line is driven by a .426 BABIP, which is in a virtual tie with teammate Manny Machado for the major’s fourth-highest. He’s got a .368 BABIP on grounders, well above baseball’s .224 mark and his own .245 career mark. Again, he’s not likely to maintain that, particularly given his 24th-percentile sprint speed. Statcast-wise, Hosmer’s 87.1 mph average exit velocity is more than three ticks below last year’s average, placing him only in the 25th percentile, while his 6.3% barrel rate is in the 39th percentile; his 44.4% hard-hit rate is good for the 68th percentile. The contrast between those last two placements makes sense, as hard-hit rate includes all balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or more, many of which are routine groundouts with minimal (or even negative) launch angles, while barrel rate includes only balls with the launch angle/exit velo combos that produce an xBA of at least .500 and an xSLG of at least 1.500. If there’s any surprise regarding Hosmer’s Statcast expected numbers, it’s not that he’s far ahead of them — the leaderboards are full of such hitters — it’s that his .310 xBA and .470 xSLG are still more than respectable even given his groundball-heavy ways. It’s not as though he’s tapping into the new market inefficiency by hitting the ball on the ground so often; major league hitters are batting .231 and slugging .252 on groundballs this year, numbers that are respectively eight and nine points below last year’s marks, and 15 and 16 points below those from 2015-21 combined. So how is it that Hosmer is so productive given the extent to which he’s wearing out the dirt and the grass? For one thing, he’s pulling the ball more than ever; his 45.3% clip is over 11 points above his career mark and, seven points above his career high, set in 2011. He’s pulling the ball in the air more than ever as well. We’ll see if that continues; right now, we’re talking about just a couple of handfuls of batted balls in a three-week span. Looking elsewhere to see what’s different about Homser, a few other things stand out. His 10.6% walk rate and 14.1% strikeout rate are both much better than his career norms (8.1% and 17.7%); he’s doing that while chasing a career-high 36.5% of pitches outside the zone. The combination strikes me as unsustainable (no pun intended), but on the other hand, he’s seeing just 35.7% of pitches in the zone, about five points below his career mark and currently the seventh-lowest rate among qualifiers in the majors — halfway between Juan Soto (34.9%) and Mike Trout (36.5%), two hitters to whom he should never be compared under normal circumstances. A couple more things stand out thus far. Hosmer has basically been unplayable against lefties, owning a career .253/.299/.369 (81 wRC+) mark against them, and a 84 wRC+ against them last year. With Voit sidelined by a biceps tendon injury (and generally DHing before then), Hosmer has started seven of the Padres’ nine games against southpaws, and is just annihilating them at a .440/.481/.640 clip through 27 PA. He’s 4-for-9 against Dodgers lefties Tyler Anderson, Justin Bruihl, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Julio Urías, and Alex Vesia, with no more than one hit against any of them; meanwhile, he’s 3-for-5 with a homer against the Reds’ Reiver Sanmartin, a guy with a 13.78 ERA and 6.70 FIP overall. Don’t expect this to continue. Yeah, he's a different player this year, so far, in a VERY good way.
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Post by aztecryan on May 3, 2022 10:45:25 GMT -8
The relevant parts: "As you may have gathered from the graphs above, Hosmer is hitting the ball on the ground a whole lot. His 59.4% groundball rate is five points above his career mark, and just one point off his career high, set in 2018, while his 18.8% fly ball rate is a career low, about seven points below his career mark and nearly a full point below his previous low, also set in 2018. That 3.17 groundball-to-fly ball ratio has been surpassed just 20 times by qualified hitters since 2002, as far back as our batted ball splits go. For the sake of clarity I have omitted four other qualifiers from this young season with even higher GB/FB ratios, namely Randy Arozarena, Garrett Cooper, Nathaniel Lowe, and Sheldon Neuse — a tip-off that such rates are so extreme that they’re rarely maintained. As you can see some players maintain ratios even more extreme than Hosmer, with higher groundball rates and/or lower fly ball rates, and some of those players even manage to be more productive than league average, but nine of the 20 who carried ratios higher than 3.17 over a 162-game season had a wRC+ below 100, and all of them save for the two members of the 3,000 hit club, Jeter and Suzuki, had a 120 wRC+ or lower. Hosmer’s not going to keep up with a 200 wRC+ — shocking, I know — but the combination of his actual stats and his Depth Charts rest-of-season ones still yields a .285/.348/.443 line, a significant improvement from his preseason forecast .262/.324/.410, eyeballing somewhere in the 130-140 range wRC+-wise under the current neo-deadball era conditions. That will play. Hosmer’s slash line is driven by a .426 BABIP, which is in a virtual tie with teammate Manny Machado for the major’s fourth-highest. He’s got a .368 BABIP on grounders, well above baseball’s .224 mark and his own .245 career mark. Again, he’s not likely to maintain that, particularly given his 24th-percentile sprint speed. Statcast-wise, Hosmer’s 87.1 mph average exit velocity is more than three ticks below last year’s average, placing him only in the 25th percentile, while his 6.3% barrel rate is in the 39th percentile; his 44.4% hard-hit rate is good for the 68th percentile. The contrast between those last two placements makes sense, as hard-hit rate includes all balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or more, many of which are routine groundouts with minimal (or even negative) launch angles, while barrel rate includes only balls with the launch angle/exit velo combos that produce an xBA of at least .500 and an xSLG of at least 1.500. If there’s any surprise regarding Hosmer’s Statcast expected numbers, it’s not that he’s far ahead of them — the leaderboards are full of such hitters — it’s that his .310 xBA and .470 xSLG are still more than respectable even given his groundball-heavy ways. It’s not as though he’s tapping into the new market inefficiency by hitting the ball on the ground so often; major league hitters are batting .231 and slugging .252 on groundballs this year, numbers that are respectively eight and nine points below last year’s marks, and 15 and 16 points below those from 2015-21 combined. So how is it that Hosmer is so productive given the extent to which he’s wearing out the dirt and the grass? For one thing, he’s pulling the ball more than ever; his 45.3% clip is over 11 points above his career mark and, seven points above his career high, set in 2011. He’s pulling the ball in the air more than ever as well. We’ll see if that continues; right now, we’re talking about just a couple of handfuls of batted balls in a three-week span. Looking elsewhere to see what’s different about Homser, a few other things stand out. His 10.6% walk rate and 14.1% strikeout rate are both much better than his career norms (8.1% and 17.7%); he’s doing that while chasing a career-high 36.5% of pitches outside the zone. The combination strikes me as unsustainable (no pun intended), but on the other hand, he’s seeing just 35.7% of pitches in the zone, about five points below his career mark and currently the seventh-lowest rate among qualifiers in the majors — halfway between Juan Soto (34.9%) and Mike Trout (36.5%), two hitters to whom he should never be compared under normal circumstances. A couple more things stand out thus far. Hosmer has basically been unplayable against lefties, owning a career .253/.299/.369 (81 wRC+) mark against them, and a 84 wRC+ against them last year. With Voit sidelined by a biceps tendon injury (and generally DHing before then), Hosmer has started seven of the Padres’ nine games against southpaws, and is just annihilating them at a .440/.481/.640 clip through 27 PA. He’s 4-for-9 against Dodgers lefties Tyler Anderson, Justin Bruihl, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Julio Urías, and Alex Vesia, with no more than one hit against any of them; meanwhile, he’s 3-for-5 with a homer against the Reds’ Reiver Sanmartin, a guy with a 13.78 ERA and 6.70 FIP overall. Don’t expect this to continue. Yeah, he's a different player this year, so far, in a VERY good way. In a very unsustainable way. Basically, everything that's been alluded to now is here in print. Nothing to do with hatred or disdain, pure statistics, through and through.
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Post by johneaztec on May 3, 2022 10:55:05 GMT -8
Yeah, he's a different player this year, so far, in a VERY good way. In a very unsustainable way. Basically, everything that's been alluded to now is here in print. Nothing to do with hatred or disdain, pure statistics, through and through. It's sustainable if he's tweaked something. He's hitting lefties MUCH better, for example and pulling the ball more. He's more patient at the plate, which is a tweak, and allows him to swing at better pitches, etc.... We'll see how he ends up, but hoping for the best.
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Post by junior on May 3, 2022 11:10:32 GMT -8
There's probably a reason the Math Department at Stanford won't let statisticians in … they gotta have their own division. I won't speculate much about the why…
While uncertainty is certainly a valid topic for study, it's just that … a science of uncertainty.
As long as there's uncertainty, on any given trial, anything can happen.
One thing that statistics don't take into account well is recency. Conditions can change, and statistics are based on those conditions remaining fairly constant. Unless we're just talking about correlation, recency may enter into the picture at some point, even as a confounding variable. Batting stances change, vision changes, effort changes, even the ball appears to have changed this season, and none of these possible changes can be reliably accounted for in a "purely statistical" model - one where "past events" are used to "predict" "future events".
Unsustainable is a reasonable prediction based on past events, but it's not a certainty.
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Post by aztecryan on May 3, 2022 11:34:15 GMT -8
In a very unsustainable way. Basically, everything that's been alluded to now is here in print. Nothing to do with hatred or disdain, pure statistics, through and through. It's sustainable if he's tweaked something. He's hitting lefties MUCH better, for example and pulling the ball more. He's more patient at the plate, which is a tweak, and allows him to swing at better pitches, etc.... We'll see how he ends up, but hoping for the best. It says in the article there have been no discernable mechanical changes with the swing. He's pulling the ball in the air more, yes. Oddly enough, he's actually been at his best in the past when he uses the opposite field more. Small sample sizes probably have a lot to do with it, but he's going to need to hit the ball in the air a TON to offset the grounders.
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Post by aztecryan on May 3, 2022 11:40:53 GMT -8
There's probably a reason the Math Department at Stanford won't let statisticians in … they gotta have their own division. I won't speculate much about the why… While uncertainty is certainly a valid topic for study, it's just that … a science of uncertainty. As long as there's uncertainty, on any given trial, anything can happen. One thing that statistics don't take into account well is recency. Conditions can change, and statistics are based on those conditions remaining fairly constant. Unless we're just talking about correlation, recency may enter into the picture at some point, even as a confounding variable. Batting stances change, vision changes, effort changes, even the ball appears to have changed this season, and none of these possible changes can be reliably accounted for in a "purely statistical" model - one where "past events" are used to "predict" "future events". Unsustainable is a reasonable prediction based on past events, but it's not a certainty. It's not overly difficult. BABIP is among the events that take longest to stabilize. It takes a larger number of plate appearances to level out - Check out Tatis's historical numbers for a good example of that. BABIP is tied directly to sprint speed, which is why Tatis ran such high numbers, he beat out a lot of infield hits. Hosmer has no speed, so he's not going to run a .400+ BABIP for an entire season. League average for BABIP tends to be around .300 historically. Once you hit the ball on the ground with enough frequency, those balls become outs gradually over time as defenses adjust and get more data on a hitter. That's why there's a lot of pessimism. Absent serious mechanical changes, this appears to be more April small sample size noise against a lot of bad pitching. Historically speaking, his inability to hit lefties over the last four years isn't going to be counterbalanced by less than ten plate appearances against a handful of really unimpressive arms. We'll see what happens from here.
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Post by johneaztec on May 3, 2022 13:34:53 GMT -8
There's probably a reason the Math Department at Stanford won't let statisticians in … they gotta have their own division. I won't speculate much about the why… While uncertainty is certainly a valid topic for study, it's just that … a science of uncertainty. As long as there's uncertainty, on any given trial, anything can happen. One thing that statistics don't take into account well is recency. Conditions can change, and statistics are based on those conditions remaining fairly constant. Unless we're just talking about correlation, recency may enter into the picture at some point, even as a confounding variable. Batting stances change, vision changes, effort changes, even the ball appears to have changed this season, and none of these possible changes can be reliably accounted for in a "purely statistical" model - one where "past events" are used to "predict" "future events". Unsustainable is a reasonable prediction based on past events, but it's not a certainty. Well said.
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Post by sdsuball on May 3, 2022 16:42:01 GMT -8
It's sustainable if he's tweaked something. He's hitting lefties MUCH better, for example and pulling the ball more. He's more patient at the plate, which is a tweak, and allows him to swing at better pitches, etc.... We'll see how he ends up, but hoping for the best. It says in the article there have been no discernable mechanical changes with the swing. He's pulling the ball in the air more, yes. Oddly enough, he's actually been at his best in the past when he uses the opposite field more. Small sample sizes probably have a lot to do with it, but he's going to need to hit the ball in the air a TON to offset the grounders. Highest pull rate in his career + lower exit velocity. I speculated on another page that this could be due to using a lighter bat. He's also fouling off more pitches. Hosmer has a higher contact percentage then he did in past years, he's seeing more pitches per at bat, and he's striking out less. That portion of his numbers is completely sustainable.
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