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Post by AztecBill on Aug 11, 2011 7:05:32 GMT -8
Padres have now moved into 6th place in MLB in runs per game on the road. That includes scoring more on the road than 10 teams that use the DH. Pretty good for an offense that is "beyond sad". Rating | Team | Games | Runs | Runs/Game | 1 | St. Louis | 62 | 317 | 5.113 | 2 | NY Yankees | 54 | 276 | 5.111 | 3 | Boston | 57 | 291 | 5.105 | 4 | Tampa Bay | 58 | 294 | 5.07 | 5 | NY Mets | 60 | 287 | 4.78 | 6 | San Diego | 59 | 271 | 4.59 | 7 | Detroit | 58 | 260 | 4.48 | 8 | Kansas City | 54 | 239 | 4.43 | 9 | Toronto | 60 | 262 | 4.37 | 10 | Cleveland | 59 | 256 | 4.34 | 11 | Arizona | 59 | 256 | 4.34 | 12 | Philadelphia | 58 | 250 | 4.31 | 13 | Cincinnati | 57 | 243 | 4.26 | 14 | LA Dodgers | 54 | 230 | 4.26 | 15 | Pittsburgh | 58 | 246 | 4.24 | 16 | LA Angels | 60 | 254 | 4.23 | 17 | Chicago Sox | 60 | 251 | 4.18 | 18 | Atlanta | 62 | 256 | 4.13 | 19 | Florida | 57 | 233 | 4.09 | 20 | San Francisco | 58 | 237 | 4.09 | 21 | Minnesota | 60 | 244 | 4.07 | 22 | Texas | 56 | 224 | 4.00 | 23 | Chicago Cubs | 56 | 224 | 4.00 | 24 | Baltimore | 54 | 212 | 3.93 | 25 | Houston | 58 | 221 | 3.81 | 26 | Washington | 61 | 232 | 3.80 | 27 | Milwaukee | 61 | 228 | 3.74 | 28 | Colorado | 59 | 210 | 3.56 | 29 | Seattle | 58 | 205 | 3.53 | 30 | Oakland | 61 | 213 | 3.49 |
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 11, 2011 7:32:50 GMT -8
Padres have now moved into 4th place in MLB in runs per game (in all venues) after the all star break. That includes scoring more than 11 teams that use the DH. The Padres lead the NL in runs per game after the all-star break. Pretty good for an offense that is beyond sad. Rating | Team | Games | Runs | Runs/Game | 1 | NY Yankees | 27 | 161 | 5.96 | 2 | Boston | 26 | 149 | 5.73 | 3 | Texas | 26 | 142 | 5.46 | 4 | San Diego | 26 | 140 | 5.38 | 5 | Colorado | 27 | 138 | 5.11 | 6 | Oakland | 24 | 135 | 5.63 | 7 | Philadelphia | 26 | 131 | 5.04 | 8 | NY Mets | 25 | 129 | 5.16 | 9 | St. Louis | 25 | 123 | 4.92 | 10 | Atlanta | 26 | 121 | 4.65 | 11 | Milwaukee | 25 | 117 | 4.68 | 12 | Toronto | 24 | 117 | 4.88 | 13 | Arizona | 25 | 117 | 4.68 | 14 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 117 | 4.50 | 15 | Baltimore | 26 | 116 | 4.46 | 16 | Florida | 26 | 115 | 4.42 | 17 | Kansas City | 26 | 110 | 4.23 | 18 | Minnesota | 28 | 110 | 3.93 | 19 | Cincinnati | 25 | 110 | 4.40 | 20 | Cleveland | 25 | 105 | 4.20 | 21 | Chicago Cubs | 25 | 104 | 4.16 | 22 | Washington | 24 | 102 | 4.25 | 23 | Detroit | 24 | 100 | 4.17 | 24 | LA Angels | 25 | 95 | 3.80 | 25 | Chicago Sox | 24 | 95 | 3.96 | 26 | Houston | 25 | 91 | 3.64 | 27 | Pittsburgh | 26 | 91 | 3.50 | 28 | LA Dodgers | 24 | 87 | 3.63 | 29 | Seattle | 25 | 85 | 3.40 | 30 | San Francisco | 26 | 75 | 2.88 |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2011 9:39:07 GMT -8
Bill, I think it's kind of sad that you spend so much time and energy looking up these statistics about the Padres when:
A) It will be one of the most forgettable teams in Padre History, therefor one of the most forgettable in MLB history.
B) I have yet to see you convince a single person on any message board that your statics have any validity to them
C) I have yet to see you convince a single person on any message board that the Padres offense is anything other than god awful.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 11, 2011 12:51:25 GMT -8
Bill, I think it's kind of sad that you spend so much time and energy looking up these statistics about the Padres when: A) It will be one of the most forgettable teams in Padre History, therefor one of the most forgettable in MLB history. B) I have yet to see you convince a single person on any message board that your statics have any validity to them C) I have yet to see you convince a single person on any message board that the Padres offense is anything other than god awful. A) In 2009 the Padres ended the season 35-24 with a lot of young players who carried over the success into 2010 with a team that was in the chase until the last day of the season. So how a team ends the year is important. B & C) That is more a reflection on who is responding than my posts.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2011 15:45:20 GMT -8
Bill, I think it's kind of sad that you spend so much time and energy looking up these statistics about the Padres when: A) It will be one of the most forgettable teams in Padre History, therefor one of the most forgettable in MLB history. B) I have yet to see you convince a single person on any message board that your statics have any validity to them C) I have yet to see you convince a single person on any message board that the Padres offense is anything other than god awful. A) In 2009 the Padres ended the season 35-24 with a lot of young players who carried over the success into 2010 with a team that was in the chase until the last day of the season. So how a team ends the year is important. B & C) That is more a reflection on who is responding than my posts. No it's a wake up call that no one buys what you're selling. Even if you are right at some point you need to concede the point that everyone disagrees and more importantly nobody cares.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 11, 2011 17:01:45 GMT -8
A) In 2009 the Padres ended the season 35-24 with a lot of young players who carried over the success into 2010 with a team that was in the chase until the last day of the season. So how a team ends the year is important. B & C) That is more a reflection on who is responding than my posts. No it's a wake up call that no one buys what you're selling. Even if you are right at some point you need to concede the point that everyone disagrees and more importantly nobody cares. Just because you post that and Bruce is being Bruce, doesn't make it so. I notice how you love to pound on BBAnalyst on the Aztecs board because he likes Jamaal. I think that also says something about you. I think you need to smell the roses and re assess your conduct. Padres are #1 in scoring since the all-star break. Instead of admitting that things have changed you resort to personal attacks.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2011 18:05:25 GMT -8
No it's a wake up call that no one buys what you're selling. Even if you are right at some point you need to concede the point that everyone disagrees and more importantly nobody cares. Just because you post that and Bruce is being Bruce, doesn't make it so. I notice how you love to pound on BBAnalyst on the Aztecs board because he likes Jamaal. I think that also says something about you. I think you need to smell the roses and re assess your conduct. Padres are #1 in scoring since the all-star break. Instead of admitting that things have changed you resort to personal attacks. When have you felt that I have personally attacked you? I sincerely apologize if you've felt like I've attacked you as a person. I even try not to get too aggressive when I'm making my point. What I experience right now is you getting defensive because I'm exposing the fact that your statistical analysis and overal energy is being wasted on people that don't believe in what you are selling. It's a simple truth: of the people that respond to your postings, i have yet to see a single person's perspective on the Padres offense change because of the statistics you show. Do a statistical analysis of how many opinions you've changed on this message board, and the UT forums about the Padres offense. I'm sure when you compare it to the time and energy you've spent presenting your case, you will concldue that it's just not worth it. As for the Padres numbers since the break... Does a few good weeks of offense erase an entire year of pathetic display? Glad to see the bats are showing more life as of late. the bottom line is this season is a lost cause and the pathetic offense is the reason for that.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 12, 2011 7:45:57 GMT -8
Just because you post that and Bruce is being Bruce, doesn't make it so. I notice how you love to pound on BBAnalyst on the Aztecs board because he likes Jamaal. I think that also says something about you. I think you need to smell the roses and re assess your conduct. Padres are #1 in scoring since the all-star break. Instead of admitting that things have changed you resort to personal attacks. When have you felt that I have personally attacked you? I sincerely apologize if you've felt like I've attacked you as a person. I even try not to get too aggressive when I'm making my point. What I experience right now is you getting defensive because I'm exposing the fact that your statistical analysis and overal energy is being wasted on people that don't believe in what you are selling. It's a simple truth: of the people that respond to your postings, i have yet to see a single person's perspective on the Padres offense change because of the statistics you show. Do a statistical analysis of how many opinions you've changed on this message board, and the UT forums about the Padres offense. I'm sure when you compare it to the time and energy you've spent presenting your case, you will concldue that it's just not worth it. As for the Padres numbers since the break... Does a few good weeks of offense erase an entire year of pathetic display? Glad to see the bats are showing more life as of late. the bottom line is this season is a lost cause and the pathetic offense is the reason for that. Just as much as a few bad weeks bring the numbers down. Overall the Padres have scored as many runs as they have given up. The Padres pitching and hitting have been very good on the road. At home, the pitching and hitting have been bad. The records reflect that. On the road the Padres have played at a championship level.
Bill James, famous baseball statistician did a study about predicting future results based upon history. He found that run differential is a better predictor of future results than win loss record. That is interesting in the Padres case since their current run differential is -3. -3 is better than the Giants (-13), Dodgers (-40), and Rockies (-9). It shows, I believe, that the Padres are not that far away from being a team that can win at the rate they did last year. The big difference this year is injuries, defense, and a bad April. With a little luck and not much else changing the Padres will win next year.
That is my assessment on the current state of the Padres.
As far as wasting my time: You assume a lot. The above tables take about 2 minutes to produce. I wrote an EXCEL Macro that creates tables from data within that workbook. It is pretty slick and saves a lot of time. It will either create tables with a "[]" or "<>" style. And no I created it for work not this site. I just added "[]" style option for this site and that only took a couple extra lines of code.
Below is the one for tables here. Just select the cell in the bottom right corner of the data and run the Macro. It will create the table from there to the upper left corner of the worksheet and select that table. You can use Ctrl "C" to copy the table and then paste it directly into your post using Ctrl "P". Very simple. Sub MakeTablex() Maxrow = Selection.Row Maxcol = Selection.Column For Row = 1 To Maxrow Cells(Row, Maxcol + 1) = "[/td][/tr]" Next Row Cells(Maxrow, Maxcol + 1) = "[/td][/tr][/table]" For Col = Maxcol To 1 Step -1 Cells(1, Col).EntireColumn.Insert Shift:=xlToRight For Row = 1 To Maxrow Cells(Row, Col) = "[/td][td]" Next Row Next Col Cells(1, 1) = " " For Row = 2 To Maxrow Cells(Row, 1) = "[tr][td]" Next Row Range(Cells(1, 1), Cells(Maxrow, Maxcol * 2 + 1)).Select End Sub |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2011 7:52:31 GMT -8
When have you felt that I have personally attacked you? I sincerely apologize if you've felt like I've attacked you as a person. I even try not to get too aggressive when I'm making my point. What I experience right now is you getting defensive because I'm exposing the fact that your statistical analysis and overal energy is being wasted on people that don't believe in what you are selling. It's a simple truth: of the people that respond to your postings, i have yet to see a single person's perspective on the Padres offense change because of the statistics you show. Do a statistical analysis of how many opinions you've changed on this message board, and the UT forums about the Padres offense. I'm sure when you compare it to the time and energy you've spent presenting your case, you will concldue that it's just not worth it. As for the Padres numbers since the break... Does a few good weeks of offense erase an entire year of pathetic display? Glad to see the bats are showing more life as of late. the bottom line is this season is a lost cause and the pathetic offense is the reason for that. = Sub MakeTablex() MaxRow = Selection.Row MaxCol = Selection.Column For Row = 1 To MaxRow Cells(Row, MaxCol + 1) = " [/td][/tr]" Next Row Cells(MaxRow, MaxCol + 1) = "[/td][/tr][/table]" For Col = MaxCol To 1 Step -1 Cells(1, Col).EntireColumn.Insert Shift:=xlToRight For Row = 1 To MaxRow Cells(Row, Col) = "[/td][td]" Next Row Next Col Cells(1, 1) = " " For Row = 2 To MaxRow Cells(Row, 1) = "[tr][td]" Next Row End Sub |
[/quote] This is it bill. You've convinced me.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 12, 2011 8:03:10 GMT -8
= Sub MakeTablex() MaxRow = Selection.Row MaxCol = Selection.Column For Row = 1 To MaxRow Cells(Row, MaxCol + 1) = " [/td][/tr]" Next Row Cells(MaxRow, MaxCol + 1) = "[/td][/tr][/table]" For Col = MaxCol To 1 Step -1 Cells(1, Col).EntireColumn.Insert Shift:=xlToRight For Row = 1 To MaxRow Cells(Row, Col) = "[/td][td]" Next Row Next Col Cells(1, 1) = " " For Row = 2 To MaxRow Cells(Row, 1) = "[tr][td]" Next Row End Sub |
[/quote] This is it bill. You've convinced me.[/quote] That I don't spend as much time as you thought? Sweet. I am so relieved. I will sleep well tonight.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 17, 2011 11:15:36 GMT -8
Post All-Star Scoring. Look at MLB's #4 (out of 30) team. Not a small part of that is 57 stolen bases and only 9 caught stealing. The next highest total post All-Star is 39 Stolen Bases. The Padres stolen base success rate is tops too.
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Post by aztecron on Sept 30, 2011 6:11:10 GMT -8
Bill, here is the basis of the season long discussion between you and I regarding hitters strikeouts, and the lack of power. The quote below is the position I have taken and is my point regarding our hitters strikeouts and the lack of power, making our k's to damaging to us.
This quote is from today UT and attributed to Jed Hoyer.
"“Strikeouts by our hitters are a huge problem,” said Hoyer. “Strikeouts are OK when they come with power. They are death when you have no power. We’re going to cut down the strikeouts with the focus on personnel.”
That's the argument in a nutshell.
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 30, 2011 7:37:10 GMT -8
Bill, here is the basis of the season long discussion between you and I regarding hitters strikeouts, and the lack of power. The quote below is the position I have taken and is my point regarding our hitters strikeouts and the lack of power, making our k's to damaging to us. This quote is from today UT and attributed to Jed Hoyer. "“Strikeouts by our hitters are a huge problem,” said Hoyer. “Strikeouts are OK when they come with power. They are death when you have no power. We’re going to cut down the strikeouts with the focus on personnel.” That's the argument in a nutshell. And I disagree. General managers can be wrong you know. An appeal to authority does nothing for me. You can reduce your strikeout rate by swinging early, often, and weakly. That will reduce your strikeout rate but also your effectiveness as a hitter. Increasing power or walks generally results in more strikeouts too. The key is the ratio between the walks and power and strikeouts. Hoyer left out walks. Below is a table of a stat I like to use to see how walks and strikeouts relate. It is the On Base Percentage of Plate Appearances that result in a strikeout or a walk. Player (100 AB) | Walks | Strikeouts | OBP on W+K | Orlando Hudson | 49 | 84 | 0.368 | Chris Denorfia | 28 | 49 | 0.364 | Chase Headley | 52 | 92 | 0.361 | Jesus Guzman | 22 | 43 | 0.338 | Jason Bartlett | 48 | 98 | 0.329 | Anthony Rizzo | 21 | 46 | 0.313 | Ryan Ludwick | 32 | 87 | 0.269 | Logan Forsythe | 12 | 33 | 0.267 | Cameron Maybin | 44 | 125 | 0.260 | Alberto Gonzalez | 13 | 37 | 0.260 | Will Venable | 31 | 92 | 0.252 | Kyle Blanks | 16 | 51 | 0.239 | Nick Hundley | 22 | 74 | 0.229 | Brad Hawpe | 19 | 68 | 0.218 | Jorge Cantu | 7 | 28 | 0.200 | Rob Johnson | 14 | 58 | 0.194 |
That clearly shows that Orlando Hudson, Chris Denorfia, and Chase Headley strikeout a lot but they do that in trying to get walks and overall it is a positive. Hoyer would do well to keep in mind that walks, in addition to power, is a mitigating factor to the negative of a high strikeout rate.
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Post by rajflower on Sept 30, 2011 7:54:28 GMT -8
Since we are looking at our offensive game and now we need a new batting coach. How about looking at one of the greatest Tony Gwynn?
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 30, 2011 8:03:41 GMT -8
Bill, here is the basis of the season long discussion between you and I regarding hitters strikeouts, and the lack of power. The quote below is the position I have taken and is my point regarding our hitters strikeouts and the lack of power, making our k's to damaging to us. This quote is from today UT and attributed to Jed Hoyer. "“Strikeouts by our hitters are a huge problem,” said Hoyer. “Strikeouts are OK when they come with power. They are death when you have no power. We’re going to cut down the strikeouts with the focus on personnel.” That's the argument in a nutshell. One other interesting thing I found looking at his statement about power and strikeouts that surprised me is the correlation between SLG and Ks. In MLB this year that correlation (by team) is mildly negative. It is -.41. The correlation between walks and strikeouts is very close to zero. It is +.038. I guess it should be done at player level using K-Rate instead of gross Ks. But that I will leave to a later date.
But I agree the Padres need to cut down on strikeouts but I hate that being the focus instead of more walks and more power being the focus.
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 30, 2011 8:04:49 GMT -8
Since we are looking at our offensive game and now we need a new batting coach. How about looking at one of the greatest Tony Gwynn? I think he would be great.
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Post by podpeople on Sept 30, 2011 13:39:18 GMT -8
I think its almost comical how quickly the Padres go through hitting coaches.
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Post by smoketree on Sept 30, 2011 17:23:35 GMT -8
Anyone who accepts the job as our hitting coach must be a glutton for punishment....Our ownership is still a joke...Let's see, I believe I attended at the most three games all season long and rarely watched them on television....And I am a life long fan and former season ticket holder....
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Post by aztecron on Sept 30, 2011 18:50:05 GMT -8
Bill, here is the basis of the season long discussion between you and I regarding hitters strikeouts, and the lack of power. The quote below is the position I have taken and is my point regarding our hitters strikeouts and the lack of power, making our k's to damaging to us. This quote is from today UT and attributed to Jed Hoyer. "“Strikeouts by our hitters are a huge problem,” said Hoyer. “Strikeouts are OK when they come with power. They are death when you have no power. We’re going to cut down the strikeouts with the focus on personnel.” That's the argument in a nutshell. And I disagree. General managers can be wrong you know. An appeal to authority does nothing for me. Right, cause Jed Hoyer has less access to statistics than you do, and obviously his in house analytical gurus running highly advanced statistical analysis don't have it right either. Bill, Bill, Bill.
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Post by aztecron on Sept 30, 2011 18:54:33 GMT -8
Bill, here is the basis of the season long discussion between you and I regarding hitters strikeouts, and the lack of power. The quote below is the position I have taken and is my point regarding our hitters strikeouts and the lack of power, making our k's to damaging to us. This quote is from today UT and attributed to Jed Hoyer. "“Strikeouts by our hitters are a huge problem,” said Hoyer. “Strikeouts are OK when they come with power. They are death when you have no power. We’re going to cut down the strikeouts with the focus on personnel.” That's the argument in a nutshell. One other interesting thing I found looking at his statement about power and strikeouts that surprised me is the correlation between SLG and Ks. In MLB this year that correlation (by team) is mildly negative. It is -.41. The correlation between walks and strikeouts is very close to zero. It is +.038. I guess it should be done at player level using K-Rate instead of gross Ks. But that I will leave to a later date.
But I agree the Padres need to cut down on strikeouts but I hate that being the focus instead of more walks and more power being the focus. You do realize Moneyball was published in 2003 and the game has gone through another evolution since then right? Just kidding around.
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