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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2011 15:11:43 GMT -8
I am really enjoying this argument.
Most of us strongly disagree with Bill but since he doesn't speak our language, and we don't speak stats. It's nice to have someone who speaks both and can beat Bill at his own game.
Aztecgrad01, for some reason when I read your posts I feel strangely patriotic.
USA USA USA USA
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Post by 01aztecgrad on Jul 29, 2011 15:19:09 GMT -8
I am really enjoying this argument. Most of us strongly disagree with Bill but since he doesn't speak our language, and we don't speak stats. It's nice to have someone who speaks both and can beat Bill at his own game. Aztecgrad01, for some reason when I read your posts I feel strangely patriotic. USA USA USA USA Unfortunately I'll have to bow out now. Beginning tomorrow afternoon I'll be offline for a week, and by the time I get back there will be too many irrelevant tables with no actual analysis for me to discredit, but it has been a fun two day binge.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 1, 2011 7:39:15 GMT -8
I don't need to show why something is happening to show that it is happening.
The Padres pitchers have the best NL home ERA, since Petco Park opened. Not by a small margin. They have not had the best pitching staffs in the NL over that period. How do we know? Because on the road they are below the average pitching staff in ERA. They are #11 out of 16 teams in the NL over that period in ERA. Petco Park has a major effect on how many runs that Padres give up. It also has a major effect on how many they score. The Padres are #4 in scoring on the road over that period and #16 (last) in scoring at home. Those two very simple, straight forward sets of data, speaks volumes about the effects of Petco Park.
The park you play in is 50% of the games. The effects of where you play on the road is greatly diminished because of fairly balanced schedules. Teams in the NL Central tend to score more runs because they are in a division that has a lot of hitters parks. But the difference is in the 3% range while the difference in home ball parks is as high as 30%. You can adjust for a 30% difference without worrying about a few 3% changes. I will leave adjusting all the 3% differences to Baseball Prospectus. I can point to the gorilla in the room without mentioning the mouse.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2011 16:44:19 GMT -8
01aztecgrad > AztecBill
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Post by aztecbruce on Aug 4, 2011 8:51:29 GMT -8
16 shutouts
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 8, 2011 8:35:51 GMT -8
Padres are #8 in baseball in scoring (per game) on the road. The Padres are #3 in the NL in scoring (per game) on the road. Petco Park clouds judgement about how good an offense is.
Even though they use a DH the following AL teams have scored less runs per game on the road than the Padres:
Toronto Cleveland LA Angels Chicago Sox Minnesota Texas Baltimore Seattle Oakland
In addition, the Padres have scored more runs on the road than any NL team except St Louis and the Mets. Even though St Louis has outscored the Padres on the road, they only managed 7 runs in 3 games at Petco Park this year. That is a full 2 runs per game below their road average.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2011 8:37:15 GMT -8
Padres are #8 in baseball in scoring (per game) on the road. The Padres are #3 in the NL in scoring (per game) on the road. Petco Park clouds judgement about how good an offense is. Even though they use a DH the following AL teams have scored less runs per game on the road than the Padres: Toronto Cleveland LA Angels Chicago Sox Minnesota Texas Baltimore Seattle Oakland In addition the Padres have scored more runs on the road than any NL team except St Louis and the Mets. Bill do you think the Padres have the 3rd best offense in the National League?
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 8, 2011 8:55:15 GMT -8
Padres are #8 in baseball in scoring (per game) on the road. The Padres are #3 in the NL in scoring (per game) on the road. Petco Park clouds judgement about how good an offense is. Even though they use a DH the following AL teams have scored less runs per game on the road than the Padres: Toronto Cleveland LA Angels Chicago Sox Minnesota Texas Baltimore Seattle Oakland In addition the Padres have scored more runs on the road than any NL team except St Louis and the Mets. Bill do you think the Padres have the 3rd best offense in the National League? Petco Park has supressed runs, historically, by .80 runs (see other thread). The Padres have scored 4.46 runs per game on the road. They should have scored (4.46 * .80) 3.57 runs per game at home based upon Petco's historic effect. They have scored well below that at home. So on the road they have been the 3rd best in the NL but their home performance drags their overall rating down. It is like Milwakee, Colorado, and Texas in reverse. Colorado and Texas have a very good reason to score so much more at home. Milwakee doesn't. That is why Milwakee's road record is so bad and their home record is so good. The Padres are not scoring as much at home as they "should" based upon road performance and Petco history. That is part of the reason for their bad home record (versus road). Giving up too many runs at home is a bigger part of the reason. Based upon how well they do on the road at giving up runs and considering Petco effects, the Padres should have given up many less runs at Petco than they have. Team | Home rating | Road rating | Home R/G | Road R/Game | Diff | Texas | 1 | 22 | 6.03 | 4 | 2.03 | Colorado | 4 | 29 | 5.47 | 3.48 | 1.99 | Milwaukee | 5 | 25 | 5.25 | 3.69 | 1.56 | Padres | 29 | 8 | 2.93 | 4.46 | -1.53 |
So Milwakee is the best example of a team like the Padres. Both offenses play better than they should at on split (Brewers at home - Padres on the road) and their records reflect that. Road games pull Milwakee's overall offensive rating down - Home games pull the Padres overall offensive rating down. If the Padres did score 3.57 runs per game at home. I think most everyone would not accept that they were one of the top offensive teams because Petco would cloud the judgement of the Padres offense. Bottom line is the Padres are not as good as their road numbers indicate but not nearly as bad as most people think.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2011 13:25:02 GMT -8
Bill do you think the Padres have the 3rd best offense in the National League? Petco Park has supressed runs, historically, by .80 runs (see other thread). The Padres have scored 4.46 runs per game on the road. They should have scored (4.46 * .80) 3.57 runs per game at home based upon Petco's historic effect. They have scored well below that at home. So on the road they have been the 3rd best in the NL but their home performance drags their overall rating down. It is like Milwakee, Colorado, and Texas in reverse. Colorado and Texas have a very good reason to score so much more at home. Milwakee doesn't. That is why Milwakee's road record is so bad and their home record is so good. The Padres are not scoring as much at home as they "should" based upon road performance and Petco history. That is part of the reason for their bad home record (versus road). Giving up too many runs at home is a bigger part of the reason. Based upon how well they do on the road at giving up runs and considering Petco effects, the Padres should have given up many less runs at Petco than they have. Team | Home rating | Road rating | Home R/G | Road R/Game | Diff | Texas | 1 | 22 | 6.03 | 4 | 2.03 | Colorado | 4 | 29 | 5.47 | 3.48 | 1.99 | Milwaukee | 5 | 25 | 5.25 | 3.69 | 1.56 | Padres | 29 | 8 | 2.93 | 4.46 | -1.53 |
So Milwakee is the best example of a team like the Padres. Both offenses play better than they should at on split (Brewers at home - Padres on the road) and their records reflect that. Road games pull Milwakee's overall offensive rating down - Home games pull the Padres overall offensive rating down. If the Padres did score 3.57 runs per game at home. I think most everyone would not accept that they were one of the top offensive teams because Petco would cloud the judgement of the Padres offense. Bottom line is the Padres are not as good as their road numbers indicate but not nearly as bad as most people think. So do you think the Padres have the 3rd best offense in the NL?
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Post by untitled on Aug 8, 2011 13:42:55 GMT -8
Petco obviously suppresses runs- even with just an eye test. It's ridiculous, skewed, boring baseball.
The question is will management ever pull right field in like 10--at least 10--feet as all Padres fans want to see. I don't want Rangers level scores, but make it at least fair and interesting. f x x x management's 'Play to your strengths', (i.e. cheap pitching) approach--baseball is supposed to be entertainment and the Padres are so obviously not. Even during the 90 wins last season it was largely boring to watch them.
The only time I've ever agreed with Barry Bonds was when he called Petco 'Baseball Proof'.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 8, 2011 13:59:42 GMT -8
Petco obviously suppresses runs- even with just an eye test. It's ridiculous, skewed, boring baseball. The question is will management ever pull right field in like 10--at least 10--feet as all Padres fans want to see. I don't want Rangers level scores, but make it at least fair and interesting. f x x x management's 'Play to your strengths', (i.e. cheap pitching) approach--baseball is supposed to be entertainment and the Padres are so obviously not. Even during the 90 wins last season it was largely boring to watch them. The only time I've ever agreed with Barry Bonds was when he called Petco 'Baseball Proof'. It would be nice if it would make a big difference. It would hardly change things at all. The ball does not carry when hit in the air. The only thing that would really increase scores a lot is changing the infield grass to a high bounce artificial turf.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 8, 2011 14:13:57 GMT -8
Petco Park has supressed runs, historically, by .80 runs (see other thread). The Padres have scored 4.46 runs per game on the road. They should have scored (4.46 * .80) 3.57 runs per game at home based upon Petco's historic effect. They have scored well below that at home. So on the road they have been the 3rd best in the NL but their home performance drags their overall rating down. It is like Milwakee, Colorado, and Texas in reverse. Colorado and Texas have a very good reason to score so much more at home. Milwakee doesn't. That is why Milwakee's road record is so bad and their home record is so good. The Padres are not scoring as much at home as they "should" based upon road performance and Petco history. That is part of the reason for their bad home record (versus road). Giving up too many runs at home is a bigger part of the reason. Based upon how well they do on the road at giving up runs and considering Petco effects, the Padres should have given up many less runs at Petco than they have. Team | Home rating | Road rating | Home R/G | Road R/Game | Diff | Texas | 1 | 22 | 6.03 | 4 | 2.03 | Colorado | 4 | 29 | 5.47 | 3.48 | 1.99 | Milwaukee | 5 | 25 | 5.25 | 3.69 | 1.56 | Padres | 29 | 8 | 2.93 | 4.46 | -1.53 |
So Milwakee is the best example of a team like the Padres. Both offenses play better than they should at on split (Brewers at home - Padres on the road) and their records reflect that. Road games pull Milwakee's overall offensive rating down - Home games pull the Padres overall offensive rating down. If the Padres did score 3.57 runs per game at home. I think most everyone would not accept that they were one of the top offensive teams because Petco would cloud the judgement of the Padres offense. Bottom line is the Padres are not as good as their road numbers indicate but not nearly as bad as most people think. So do you think the Padres have the 3rd best offense in the NL? I will repeat a highlighted portion of my post above in answer to the exact same question by you. So on the road they have been the 3rd best in the NL but their home performance drags their overall rating down. If that is not clear enough see below: No.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2011 21:16:04 GMT -8
So do you think the Padres have the 3rd best offense in the NL? I will repeat a highlighted portion of my post above in answer to the exact same question by you. So on the road they have been the 3rd best in the NL but their home performance drags their overall rating down. If that is not clear enough see below: No. Got it. So we can agree that the Padres offense is very bad.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 9, 2011 8:12:01 GMT -8
I will repeat a highlighted portion of my post above in answer to the exact same question by you. So on the road they have been the 3rd best in the NL but their home performance drags their overall rating down. If that is not clear enough see below: No. Got it. So we can agree that the Padres offense is very bad. At home this year it has been bad. On the road it has been very good. Overall about average to above average when adjusted for home park.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2011 12:00:48 GMT -8
Got it. So we can agree that the Padres offense is very bad. At home this year it has been bad. On the road it has been very good. Overall about average to above average when adjusted for home park. So you think the Padres offense is above average?
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 9, 2011 13:12:26 GMT -8
At home this year it has been bad. On the road it has been very good. Overall about average to above average when adjusted for home park. So you think the Padres offense is above average? Average to above average is what I said. I didn't put numbers to it. I will below: The Padres are 7th in MLB in runs per game on the road (just passed Kansas City last night). Adjusting their runs at home by the 7 year Petco efffect (81%), the Padres are 7th from the bottom in runs at home. Considering 14 of the 30 teams use the DH, I would say that places the Padres around, average to above average.
My question to you is how can the Padres score more than 10 American League teams in road games when they use the DH? The Padres have scored more runs per game on the road than all the following teams. Kansas City Toronto Arizona Cleveland Philadelphia Cincinnati LA Dodgers Pittsburgh LA Angels Chicago Sox Atlanta Florida San Francisco Minnesota Texas Chicago Cubs Baltimore Washington Houston Milwaukee Colorado Seattle Oakland If those teams have a better offense, why don't they score more runs? Isn't that the object of offense.
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Post by aztecbruce on Aug 9, 2011 20:43:02 GMT -8
Here's where the Padres rank in the major offensive categories: RUNS: 14th in the NL HOMERS: Last BATTING AVERAGE: Last OBP: 15th SLUGGING: Last by a wide margin OPS: Last TOTAL BASES: Last How on earth anyone draw the conclusion that the Pads offense is anything but bad? Bill can spin anything on the plate and show the Pads are the best at everything.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 10, 2011 8:35:11 GMT -8
Here's where the Padres rank in the major offensive categories: RUNS: 14th in the NL HOMERS: Last BATTING AVERAGE: Last OBP: 15th SLUGGING: Last by a wide margin OPS: Last TOTAL BASES: Last How on earth anyone draw the conclusion that the Pads offense is anything but bad? Again John, how do you explain that the Padres are 3rd in the NL in scoring on the road? Just look at road games and tell me what that tells you. The mighty Philadelphia Phillies wish they could score as many runs on the road as the Padres do. I will put it in terms you can better relate to: Looking at an SAT score tells you something about a student. But looking at the math scores and verbal scores, tells you more.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 10, 2011 9:17:50 GMT -8
My question to you is this: Over which of the above lineups would you choose the Padres?Because I don't see more than one or two of these teams that I wouldn't prefer to ours. Playing half our games in Petco Park makes it real hard to judge. If we played half our games at Coors field we may lead baseball in runs scored. Everyone would then be posting in a thread called "Padres - Beyond Sad Pitching", and I would be posting that the Padres Road ERA is 4th best in baseball. And you would be posting overall ERAs and asking which of the pitching staffs would I chose over the Padres.
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Post by aztecbruce on Aug 10, 2011 21:53:17 GMT -8
Petco obviously suppresses runs- even with just an eye test. It's ridiculous, skewed, boring baseball. The question is will management ever pull right field in like 10--at least 10--feet as all Padres fans want to see. I don't want Rangers level scores, but make it at least fair and interesting. f x x x management's 'Play to your strengths', (i.e. cheap pitching) approach--baseball is supposed to be entertainment and the Padres are so obviously not. Even during the 90 wins last season it was largely boring to watch them. The only time I've ever agreed with Barry Bonds was when he called Petco 'Baseball Proof'. It would be nice if it would make a big difference. It would hardly change things at all. The ball does not carry when hit in the air. The only thing that would really increase scores a lot is changing the infield grass to a high bounce artificial turf. Seriously? Where in the hell did you come up with that one? Artificial turf at Petco? What stats do you have to back up your claim above? That's pure crapola let alone nonsense. Move in the fences in many areas and they'll score more runs.
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