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Post by nuthought on Dec 29, 2010 12:47:09 GMT -8
Finding a buyer is the problem...how do you even go about doing that? It would have to be a friend to buy your ticket (normally at a huge discount). The other way is to figure the current value of the ticket and make the corresponding bets on each remaining game so that you are guaranteed that amount no matter who wins the tournament. Of course based on the scenerios described above if your tickets winning payout was 6K and its value at any point was say $1,000 you would need to have somewhere near 5K in cash to make the bets necessary to ensure you received $1,000. The best idea is to determine at what level you would want to "lay off" or "back" the bet and only bet to that level. IE, bet the Aztecs to make the sweet sixteen at 20-1 put your $100 down and avoid this mess. What normally happens is some young guy comes in and places an 8 team parlay for $20 thinking it will never get close. Then they win the first six games and start thinking $#!+ I could really use $500. Then they are scrambling to find $1500 to back a bet. After he cant find the money then a savvy friend or acquaintance offers $300 for the ticket that is worth $500.
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Post by sdsuaztecs on Dec 29, 2010 13:02:36 GMT -8
Finding that "friend" is the issue.......but I'm not sure he's a "friend" at that point or a fool......
But back to the odds. Those odds are usually set by bookmakers of some sort before they start taking real money. Is there actually any money on the table at this point or is this just one guy's opinion of what the odds should be?
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Post by nuthought on Dec 29, 2010 14:10:32 GMT -8
In theory, the odds are based on the casino's estimation (usually a group of guys) to create a 50% wagering on each team. They just want the juice. The line moves as necessary to get even wagering on each side.
In reality most big casinos gamble a little bit that people are going to over bet the favorites which they normally do. On weekends that favorites cover in a large percentage the casinos dont do well.
Also, they dont want to move the lines to much because they dont want someone to wager both ways. For example if Team A is a 5 point favorite on Monday and I place a wager on Team B at that time I am getting 5 points. Then if by Saturday the line is .5 points and I place a like wager on team A then if Team A wins by 2 points I will collect on both bets. So a casino knows that if the move the line to a point were there is better odds for that game ending within that change as opposed to the percentage of their juice they are now less than their percentage of winning is less than 50%. You rarely see lines move greater than 2.5 points due to this reason (unless there is a major injury or some other major factor leading up to the game). Instead if the betting is skewed to one side or the other they will move the line a little to minimize the risk and then let it ride.
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Post by ziggy on Dec 29, 2010 14:14:23 GMT -8
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Post by traholder on Dec 29, 2010 14:34:03 GMT -8
There is no way Texas will win it all
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Post by sdsuaztecs on Dec 29, 2010 15:50:28 GMT -8
So at 60-1 is there any money on the table yet?
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Dec 29, 2010 16:45:46 GMT -8
The 60/1 odds were at the opening. It would be interesting to see if they have changed since they were released. I am pretty sure you couldn't sell your ticket, if they made it to the sweet 16, to anyone other than a friend that wanted to buy it. If they were willing to do that they would buy it before the tourney. Opening line on SDSU winning the NCAA championship was 150-1 when I bet on it in late October at Venetian.
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Post by standiego on Dec 29, 2010 16:54:57 GMT -8
let's see where we are on 1.15.2011- -We start the conference with 4 out 6 road games- TCU, UTAH, UNM, BYU(plus home game vs UNLV)- the next 18 days should be very entertaining
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Post by standiego on Dec 29, 2010 17:16:31 GMT -8
my bad at BYU 1.26- but rough 3 weeks 1.5 through 1.26
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Post by jdaztec on Dec 29, 2010 18:18:17 GMT -8
Where do we play in the finals this year ?
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Post by traholder on Dec 29, 2010 19:04:49 GMT -8
Actually I think those are great odds for SDSU. But something is wrong if SDSU is ranked # 7 but only 60-1 to win the whole thing. The real odds are... ...well, you know. 49/51
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Post by aztecbrothers on Dec 29, 2010 20:23:10 GMT -8
This would be the best way to "Lay" off the bet. The scenario is that you are sure that the Aztecs will make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Just bet the other team in the next game with a money line bet for say $300. You protect your initial bet and make some cash if they lose. Only two games left and then bump the bet for the next game to cover the $300 plus the $100 and a little more to make a profit. The Aztecs make it to the finals for the big payout and another hedge bet.
Then if you are getting 20-1 that the Aztecs make it to the Sweet Sixteen, put an extra Benji on them, and you will have the cash to hedge your way to the NC game.
Good Luck, if it works for you, you can buy me a beer.
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