Well, Wilner is prognosticating somehow WSU/OSU will be in a conference with State. For what it’s worth he was dead wrong on the PAC staying together, but pretty sure that’s because most of his sources were from WSU/OSU. My opinion is WSU/OSU will take the best media deal in front of them… which means staying as far away from the bottom of the MW as possible….
“In two years, is San Diego State in the same conference as Oregon State and Washington State? —
aztecalumWere the Hotline offering probabilities on realignment scenarios, SDSU pairing with the Beavers and Cougars starting in the summer of 2026 would fall on the high side of 50 percent. The very high side.
It’s a near-certainty and could come in one of several forms:
— Oregon State and Washington State join the Mountain West.
— The Aztecs join a rebuilt Pac-12 with some or all of the Mountain West schools.
— All three join the ACC to expand its western footprint. (This outcome has a 0.001 percent chance of materializing, and would require Florida State and Clemson to exit the ACC, along with North Carolina, in the next nine-to-12 months.)
Not that you asked, but here’s one more layer to consider: I would include Boise State and make it a quartet.
To be clear, this is merely opinion. But the Hotline does not believe the Aztecs and Broncos have any interest in signing up for another media rights cycle with the same collection of Mountain West schools.
The conference’s agreement with Fox and CBS expires in the summer of 2026, which coincides with the expiration of the NCAA’s two-year grace period that allows WSU and OSU to compete as a two-team conference.
The coterminous events add complexity to the strategic calculations for each conference and the member schools. But everyone knows exactly when the bell tolls.
What makes us confident SDSU and Boise State want to change their peer group?
Because fundamentally, the Mountain West is just like the ACC and the Big Ten: It has football programs with above-average media value and football programs with below-average media value.
Granted, the average is much lower in the Mountain West. But on a relative basis, the situation is exactly the same. The schools at the top of the valuation range, San Diego State and Boise State are worth substantially more than the schools at the bottom of the valuation range, like Hawaii, Nevada and Utah State.
Just as Ohio State is subsidizing Purdue in the Big Ten’s media deal and Florida State is subsidizing Syracuse in the ACC’s contract, so, too, are SDSU and Boise State subsidizing schools in the Mountain West.
And just a hunch: They have no intention of signing up for more of the same when 2026 rolls around.
Which means:
— Either they stay in the Mountain West (with WSU and OSU as new members) and the top schools insist on unequal shares of media rights revenue.
— Or they leave the conference and join a rebuilt Pac-12 with eight or 10 schools that have media valuations well above the current and future Mountain West averages.
Put another way: A conference consisting of Washington State, Oregon State, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, UNLV, Air Force and at least one more school — but no more than three — would generate more media value than the Mountain West if the current collection of schools signed a new deal together.
(Which networks might be interested? Fox and CBS, of course, and perhaps The CW, as well.)
Exactly how SDSU and Boise State might extricate themselves from the Mountain West remains to be seen, for financial penalties are lined up like planes on a crowded runway — penalties that could cost the two schools and the Pac-12 more than $50 million (in total).
The operative word: could.
Because when it comes to realignment, billable hours are undefeated. The Aztecs and Broncos assuredly have legal strategies in place that would form the basis of any departure negotiations with the Mountain West.
Whether they avoid paying certain penalties altogether or merely hammer the amounts to manageable levels is anyone’s guess.
But if SDSU and Boise State (and others) opt to leave the Mountain West behind in two years, the smart money is on them paying less money than the contracts require.”
sports360az.com/wilner-mailbag-the-future-of-the-mountain-west-depends-on-sdsu-and-boise-state-more-vegas-kickoffs-the-comcast-mess-and-more/
