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Post by hoobs on Jul 21, 2024 10:43:38 GMT -8
Who and how do they decide who runs? Doesn't it have to be Harris? It doesn't HAVE to be, but it gets a bit complicated and awkward if it isn't. |
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Post by North County Aztec on Jul 21, 2024 10:46:22 GMT -8
The onchain/blockchain betting markets will be the first to know. This one is pretty darn good. polymarket.com/PolyMarket is owned by Peter Thiel and run by Nate Silver after Thiel funded millions into PAC's. No thanks. They don't know anything more than the betting markets or the prognosticators, especially at this point. It's all mindless speculation. Biden went from -185 to +900 in hours the other day on multiple offshore books, then swung all the way back down to +250. We'll know when we know. I guess you can say betting is mindless, but 1.3 million dollars bet on a 99% sure thing that Biden would drop out today prior to today. Mindless or not that's a darn good bet. |
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Post by aztecnails on Jul 21, 2024 11:02:06 GMT -8
The deadline to change the candidate has passed in Nevada and Wisconsin. It is illegal to change the candidate after the primary and before the convention just because that candidate might lose in the general election. This is a coup.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2024 11:05:37 GMT -8
PolyMarket is owned by Peter Thiel and run by Nate Silver after Thiel funded millions into PAC's. No thanks. They don't know anything more than the betting markets or the prognosticators, especially at this point. It's all mindless speculation. Biden went from -185 to +900 in hours the other day on multiple offshore books, then swung all the way back down to +250. We'll know when we know. I guess you can say betting is mindless, but 1.3 million dollars bet on a 99% sure thing that Biden would drop out today prior to today. Mindless or not that's a darn good bet. On no planet was it ever 99% implied probability. Just like Trump never got north of -210 to this point. |
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Post by 84aztec96 on Jul 21, 2024 11:05:41 GMT -8
It was not a surprise. The onchain/blockchain betting markets has been predicting a Biden surrender What Biden should do now is resign and make her president...that would absolutely blow minds..... Maybe the only thing I've ever agreed with you on politically. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2024 11:06:00 GMT -8
The deadline to change the candidate has passed in Nevada and Wisconsin. It is illegal to change the candidate after the primary and before the convention just because that candidate might lose in the general election. This is a coup. No, it isn't. |
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Post by aardvark on Jul 21, 2024 11:12:27 GMT -8
Looking like it is going to be Hillary and Gavin  |
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Post by aardvark on Jul 21, 2024 11:14:35 GMT -8
The "July Surprise"...great timing because it takes the focus off of Trump and puts it on the Dems...Harris/?...or it's going to be a $#!t show.... Can both be true? |
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Post by aardvark on Jul 21, 2024 11:17:46 GMT -8
The deadline to change the candidate has passed in Nevada and Wisconsin. It is illegal to change the candidate after the primary and before the convention just because that candidate might lose in the general election. This is a coup. No, it isn't. He is risen. 😀 |
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Post by North County Aztec on Jul 21, 2024 11:26:31 GMT -8
I guess you can say betting is mindless, but 1.3 million dollars bet on a 99% sure thing that Biden would drop out today prior to today. Mindless or not that's a darn good bet. On no planet was it ever 99% implied probability. Just like Trump never got north of -210 to this point. Then you're not paying attention simply because you don't like who owns the site. This is what happens when you can't see the see the forest for the trees. It is similar to a sports book site. Who cares who owns it. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 21, 2024 11:29:27 GMT -8
Hillary just endorsed Kamala. She's not running. I voted in the poll Kamala, and I'm sticking to that.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2024 11:30:34 GMT -8
On no planet was it ever 99% implied probability. Just like Trump never got north of -210 to this point. Then you're not paying attention simply because you don't like who owns the site. This is what happens when you can't see the see the forest for the trees. It is similar to a sports book site. Who cares who owns it. Who cares about facts? Me. And no, I've paid attention the last month more than I would like to. Narratives shape events, it's that simple. From a mathematical standpoint, the probability was never 99%. High? Sure. But not that. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2024 11:30:53 GMT -8
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Post by North County Aztec on Jul 21, 2024 11:43:36 GMT -8
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Post by North County Aztec on Jul 21, 2024 11:44:26 GMT -8
Looking like it is going to be Hillary and Gavin You can't expect much from Twitter speculations. |
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Post by bnastyaztecs on Jul 21, 2024 11:51:28 GMT -8
Rep Clyburn just endorsed Harris...it's a done deal for her....
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 21, 2024 11:53:30 GMT -8
It will be Kamala.
Biden's delegates will vote for her, giving her the nomination.
Unless several high profile Democrats come out and endorse another candidate. Which I don't see happening with Biden and Clinton behind her.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 21, 2024 11:58:57 GMT -8
It will be Kamala. Biden's delegates will vote for her, giving her the nomination. Unless several high profile Democrats come out and endorse another candidate. Which I don't see happening with Biden and Clinton behind her. It would be pretty awkward if they didn't choose Harris, for a variety of reasons. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2024 12:01:30 GMT -8
Logical and only practical choice. Curious to see who joins the ticket. Rumblings around a few candidates.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2024 12:04:26 GMT -8
Still blows my mind a bit that the Republicans haven't nominated someone not named Trump since 2012.
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