|
Post by uwphoto on Jul 23, 2024 19:38:30 GMT -8
thankfully, we will never know...and I do mean thankfully. Ryan, I admire your pitbull on an ankle..sticking to your guns attitide. But you are so wrong here.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 23, 2024 19:42:56 GMT -8
thankfully, we will never know...and I do mean thankfully. Ryan, I admire your pitbull on an ankle..sticking to your guns attitide. But you are so wrong here. History and numbers tell me otherwise. Biden was actively gaining in the polls across the board with multiple demographics. We'll never know if the party just allowed voter sentiment to increase. I still think Biden represented the best chance to beat an unpopular two-time loser. I HOPE I'm wrong, for the sake of the future.
|
|
|
Post by sdsuball on Jul 23, 2024 21:09:14 GMT -8
Zero chance Shapiro is the VP. Again, you are underplaying the significance of the genocide in Israel. Because it's not an issue at the top of the food chain and I think Harris can separate herself optically to diminish the negativity. It's an issue at the top of the food chain for voters ages 18-35, and it's an issue at the top of the food chain for Americans of Middle Eastern descent. Both of which are very important voters in swing states. Just look at the 'undecided' campaign in Michigan as a proof of concept.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 23, 2024 21:17:17 GMT -8
Because it's not an issue at the top of the food chain and I think Harris can separate herself optically to diminish the negativity. It's an issue at the top of the food chain for voters ages 18-35, and it's an issue at the top of the food chain for Americans of Middle Eastern descent. Both of which are very important voters in swing states. Just look at the 'undecided' campaign in Michigan as a proof of concept. We won't know anything in Michigan until Harris is established. Like I said, I think she can distance herself from more of the Biden-oriented policy standpoints. We shall see.
|
|
|
Post by sdsu2000 on Jul 24, 2024 6:36:41 GMT -8
It’ll be interesting in the future to see if you continue to have any say in who’s the presidential candidate. They pretend you do now but they decided last year to replace Biden and handpicked their candidate where the American people had no say.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 24, 2024 7:18:28 GMT -8
It’ll be interesting in the future to see if you continue to have any say in who’s the presidential candidate. They pretend you do now but they decided last year to replace Biden and handpicked their candidate where the American people had no say. What proof do you have they decided last year?
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Jul 24, 2024 8:24:59 GMT -8
It’ll be interesting in the future to see if you continue to have any say in who’s the presidential candidate. They pretend you do now but they decided last year to replace Biden and handpicked their candidate where the American people had no say. Why would they have gone through the primary process--such as it was--with Biden heading the ticket? That makes no sense.
|
|
|
Post by azson on Jul 24, 2024 13:28:42 GMT -8
thankfully, we will never know...and I do mean thankfully. Ryan, I admire your pitbull on an ankle..sticking to your guns attitide. But you are so wrong here. We won't truly know until Nov. The fact remains that Biden is the only one to have ever beat him and if 2016 taught me anything it's that this country was not ready to have a woman run it, no matter how much more qualified she was...and she was a white Methodist. I pray we can definitely say you were right/Ryan was wrong in a few months.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 24, 2024 13:33:12 GMT -8
thankfully, we will never know...and I do mean thankfully. Ryan, I admire your pitbull on an ankle..sticking to your guns attitide. But you are so wrong here. We won't truly know until Nov. The fact remains that Biden is the only one to have ever beat him and if 2016 taught me anything it's that this country was not ready to have a woman run it, no matter how much more qualified she was...and she was a white Methodist. I pray we can definitely say you were right/Ryan was wrong in a few months. I still maintain that if Comey doesn't drop the letter days before the election, Clinton likely still wins. But yes, what's done is done and the unpredictability and volatility of public sentiment is something that's going to be talked about here.
|
|
|
Post by ptsdthor on Jul 24, 2024 16:00:47 GMT -8
We won't truly know until Nov. The fact remains that Biden is the only one to have ever beat him and if 2016 taught me anything it's that this country was not ready to have a woman run it, no matter how much more qualified she was...and she was a white Methodist. I pray we can definitely say you were right/Ryan was wrong in a few months. I still maintain that if Comey doesn't drop the letter days before the election, Clinton likely still wins. But yes, what's done is done and the unpredictability and volatility of public sentiment is something that's going to be talked about here. With your understanding that last minute actions by Gov Employees could determine the outcome of national elections, you can sympathize with the GOP when they knew that during the run up to the 2020 election, the FBI pre-planted lies to Social Media companies to be skeptical of the discovery of Hunter's Laptop and to make them assume it was the result of a hack or the result of a Russian disinfo campaign. That action likely determined the outcome of the 2020 election. While probably not changing the popular vote much, the swing states were close enough to be affected.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 24, 2024 16:21:30 GMT -8
I still maintain that if Comey doesn't drop the letter days before the election, Clinton likely still wins. But yes, what's done is done and the unpredictability and volatility of public sentiment is something that's going to be talked about here. With your understanding that last minute actions by Gov Employees could determine the outcome of national elections, you can sympathize with the GOP when they knew that during the run up to the 2020 election, the FBI pre-planted lies to Social Media companies to be skeptical of the discovery of Hunter's Laptop and to make them assume it was the result of a hack or the result of a Russian disinfo campaign. That action likely determined the outcome of the 2020 election. While probably not changing the popular vote much, the swing states were close enough to be affected. That's a logical fallacy. First, Hunter Biden wasn't running for office. Secondly, Hilary was a HUGE favorite in the polls in the days leading up to the election. Huge. Even Nate Silver said the letter cost Hilary three points (or more) in the election. The timing of the letter damaged her chances to a much higher degree. The GOP has to blame themselves for the handling of the laptop, they allowed the chain of custody to be broken.
|
|
|
Post by ptsdthor on Jul 24, 2024 17:05:42 GMT -8
With your understanding that last minute actions by Gov Employees could determine the outcome of national elections, you can sympathize with the GOP when they knew that during the run up to the 2020 election, the FBI pre-planted lies to Social Media companies to be skeptical of the discovery of Hunter's Laptop and to make them assume it was the result of a hack or the result of a Russian disinfo campaign. That action likely determined the outcome of the 2020 election. While probably not changing the popular vote much, the swing states were close enough to be affected. That's a logical fallacy. First, Hunter Biden wasn't running for office. Secondly, Hilary was a HUGE favorite in the polls in the days leading up to the election. Huge. Even Nate Silver said the letter cost Hilary three points (or more) in the election. The timing of the letter damaged her chances to a much higher degree. The GOP has to blame themselves for the handling of the laptop, they allowed the chain of custody to be broken. Who said Hunter was running for President? The "Big Guy" who sold his office was. Regardless of the pollsters that we do or don't believe, Government interference in the the 2020 election is the truth and it likely affected its outcome.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 24, 2024 17:09:02 GMT -8
That's a logical fallacy. First, Hunter Biden wasn't running for office. Secondly, Hilary was a HUGE favorite in the polls in the days leading up to the election. Huge. Even Nate Silver said the letter cost Hilary three points (or more) in the election. The timing of the letter damaged her chances to a much higher degree. The GOP has to blame themselves for the handling of the laptop, they allowed the chain of custody to be broken. Who said Hunter was running for President? The "Big Guy" who sold his office was. Regardless of the pollsters that we do or don't believe, Government interference in the the 2020 election is the truth and it likely affected its outcome. One is absolutely true, the other is a hypothetical that we'll never know. Sucks.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 25, 2024 8:00:33 GMT -8
The Democrat controlled media is certainly trying their best to push Kamala. However the reality is, she is not liked in the “rust belt” or the Southern States. There is also the Democrat National Convention to consider. There is a pretty good chance there will be a contested primary with a vote on the floor. That could get contentious, DONT forget we are talking about democrats here. The 1968 DNC (also in Chicago) was a donnybrook with protests fights riots and several arrests. This poor showing helped the GOP and eventually led to a convincing Nixon win over Humphrey in the election. The bottom line is there is a lot of ground the democrats need to make up, several toss up states are now leaning Trump. Kamala is not a skilled enough politician to come from behind, and the DNC leadership knows this. There still could be a change at the top. How about those swing states... x.com/umichvoter/status/1816453349358686459?t=wkIEMkt7rpSy3DEZkrpvTA&s=19
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 25, 2024 9:57:12 GMT -8
Morning Consult poll has Harris up 46-45, with only 70% of fhe Black vote. Biden had 92% in the previous election.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 25, 2024 16:38:05 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 25, 2024 20:18:32 GMT -8
After agreeing to multiple debates, Trump has backed out.
|
|
|
Post by azson on Jul 26, 2024 9:11:31 GMT -8
After agreeing to multiple debates, Trump has backed out. Predictable. He is a quintessential bully, the first sign of being outmatched he tucks his tail and runs.
|
|
|
Post by North County Aztec on Jul 27, 2024 11:52:34 GMT -8
Morning Consult poll has Harris up 46-45, with only 70% of fhe Black vote. Biden had 92% in the previous election. Kind of foolish to put much stock in any poll for now. Harris’s honeymoon will continue until and through the Democratic convention, at which time delegates will put on a show of unity and strength, thereby covering up the large cracks in their coalition. Let's see where we are mid-September. Favor ability has Orange Man up 1.1, betting averages, Orange Man up by 16. So far the honeymoon is a little shaky, the bed springs might need a little WD40.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 27, 2024 11:56:48 GMT -8
Morning Consult poll has Harris up 46-45, with only 70% of fhe Black vote. Biden had 92% in the previous election. Kind of foolish to put much stock in any poll for now. Harris’s honeymoon will continue until and through the Democratic convention, at which time delegates will put on a show of unity and strength, thereby covering up the large cracks in their coalition. Let's see where we are mid-September. Favor ability has Orange Man up 1.1, betting averages, Orange Man up by 16. So far the honeymoon is a little shaky, the bed springs might need a little WD40. I expect it to get worse for Trump before it gets better, based on his ceiling of historical support. But we shall see. I'd put zero stock in a betting line right now for Harris because it's not reflective of her actual chances of winning from an implied probability standpoint.
|
|