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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 10:58:17 GMT -8
www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/presidentTrump was at 59.6 less than a week ago. I would expect this race to tighten further after the nomination of Harris is complete. Trump is -150 to -170 on the betting market right now, but that's not likely to hold.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 26, 2024 12:59:45 GMT -8
www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/presidentTrump was at 59.6 less than a week ago. I would expect this race to tighten further after the nomination of Harris is complete. Trump is -150 to -170 on the betting market right now, but that's not likely to hold. Odds going down, or up, for a candidate after a convention is a normal occurrence, correct? I've heard you say after Trump's odds got better, that it was because of this, or that, and they will correct itself. You would say, "Nothing to see here." |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 13:09:48 GMT -8
www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/presidentTrump was at 59.6 less than a week ago. I would expect this race to tighten further after the nomination of Harris is complete. Trump is -150 to -170 on the betting market right now, but that's not likely to hold. Odds going down, or up, for a candidate after a convention is a normal occurrence, correct? I've heard you say after Trump's odds got better, that it was because of this, or that, and they will correct itself. You would say, "Nothing to see here." Trump should have gotten a convention/post-assassination attempt bounce, he didn't. Remarkably flat, like his campaign seems to be right now. The tension is apparently high enough to consider replacing his VP nominee. Read into that what you will, but it was very surprising to those involved. I have no idea what you're attempting to say, though. There will be many things that provide momentary action in the markets, with the lack of liquidity in the US market in particular. The fact Harris is closing the gap across the board prior to the convention even happening is noteworthy. It'll narrow after she's nominated solely due to the removal of uncertainty. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 26, 2024 13:21:37 GMT -8
Odds going down, or up, for a candidate after a convention is a normal occurrence, correct? I've heard you say after Trump's odds got better, that it was because of this, or that, and they will correct itself. You would say, "Nothing to see here." Trump should have gotten a convention/post-assassination attempt bounce, he didn't. Remarkably flat, like his campaign seems to be right now. The tension is apparently high enough to consider replacing his VP nominee. Read into that what you will, but it was very surprising to those involved. I have no idea what you're attempting to say, though. There will be many things that provide momentary action in the markets, with the lack of liquidity in the US market in particular. The fact Harris is closing the gap across the board prior to the convention even happening is noteworthy. I thought she would get a bump after becoming the nominee. It's not really noteworthy. That's natural considering the circumstances. Not a shock. Just as you have poo pooed any Trump poll fluctuation in the past for a variety of reasons, I would hope that you would be consistent and point out why Harris got a jump (change in nominee), as well, and that it could change. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 13:45:50 GMT -8
Trump should have gotten a convention/post-assassination attempt bounce, he didn't. Remarkably flat, like his campaign seems to be right now. The tension is apparently high enough to consider replacing his VP nominee. Read into that what you will, but it was very surprising to those involved. I have no idea what you're attempting to say, though. There will be many things that provide momentary action in the markets, with the lack of liquidity in the US market in particular. The fact Harris is closing the gap across the board prior to the convention even happening is noteworthy. I thought she would get a bump after becoming the nominee. It's not really noteworthy. That's natural considering the circumstances. Not a shock. Just as you have poo pooed any Trump poll fluctuation in the past for a variety of reasons, I would hope that you would be consistent and point out why Harris got a jump (change in nominee), as well, and that it could change. First, she hasn't been nominated yet. The convention is next month, where, presumably, they will make the nomination official. So, your entire first point is inaccurate. Her closing four points off the gap NOW is absolutely noteworthy, absent Trump's post-convention stagnation. For you to understand polls, you'd have to know what you're looking at and I don't really think you do. Again, Biden was gaining in the polls prior to withdrawal. Post-debate, there was a slight bump in overall percentage for Biden. Then, the media campaign got started in earnest, the Dems started bickering and the roof caved in. Organically, you might expect Harris to benefit solely based off the damage control and the switch, but it wouldn't be this significant and it wouldn't cross multiple important demographics like it has. She's polling better in places you wouldn't expect her to, based off her previous failures. I understand as someone who probably supports Trump to some degree that you don't want this to be a thing, but it absolutely is. Between the record fundraising amounts, the ability to capture the Gen Z side of things, the lack of stability in the Trump campaign right now? Her momentum gain is real. Will it last? We don't know. And one more thing on the betting markets in particular: The reason why Trump (who was -210 last week, now down to -150ish) will continue to see that line decline is simple implied probability. There's no world where he wins this election 60+% of the time when he's capped around 47% of the popular vote. The only caveat to that is if we see something dramatic or unforeseen that seismically shifts the perception of the race. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 14:16:37 GMT -8
And one more thing as a point of clarification: In the past I've been too literal and said "polls mean nothing." What I mean by that is crowning a winner in July is premature. Not all polls are equal, not all polls are well-sourced, not all polls have the same inherent value. But they aren't truly meaningless, for the most part. Just so that's clear.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 14:22:07 GMT -8
Speaking of polls:
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 26, 2024 16:13:15 GMT -8
I thought she would get a bump after becoming the nominee. It's not really noteworthy. That's natural considering the circumstances. Not a shock. Just as you have poo pooed any Trump poll fluctuation in the past for a variety of reasons, I would hope that you would be consistent and point out why Harris got a jump (change in nominee), as well, and that it could change. First, she hasn't been nominated yet. The convention is next month, where, presumably, they will make the nomination official. So, your entire first point is inaccurate. Her closing four points off the gap NOW is absolutely noteworthy, absent Trump's post-convention stagnation. For you to understand polls, you'd have to know what you're looking at and I don't really think you do. Again, Biden was gaining in the polls prior to withdrawal. Post-debate, there was a slight bump in overall percentage for Biden. Then, the media campaign got started in earnest, the Dems started bickering and the roof caved in. Organically, you might expect Harris to benefit solely based off the damage control and the switch, but it wouldn't be this significant and it wouldn't cross multiple important demographics like it has. She's polling better in places you wouldn't expect her to, based off her previous failures. I understand as someone who probably supports Trump to some degree that you don't want this to be a thing, but it absolutely is. Between the record fundraising amounts, the ability to capture the Gen Z side of things, the lack of stability in the Trump campaign right now? Her momentum gain is real. Will it last? We don't know. And one more thing on the betting markets in particular: The reason why Trump (who was -210 last week, now down to -150ish) will continue to see that line decline is simple implied probability. There's no world where he wins this election 60+% of the time when he's capped around 47% of the popular vote. The only caveat to that is if we see something dramatic or unforeseen that seismically shifts the perception of the race. First off, I'm not a Trump supporter to any degree, any longer. I just like to see consistency in people's answers. I thought Trump did a good job in key areas, but he failed in leading a Nation in togetherness and harmony. I think he's an a****le. I don't recall you ever supporting one Trump poll. You shot them down consistently. I get what your agenda is, but when you're blatantly, at times, inconsistent and obviously bias in your answers, myself or someone else will bring it up if noticed. I would expect the same thing for me. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 16:21:06 GMT -8
First, she hasn't been nominated yet. The convention is next month, where, presumably, they will make the nomination official. So, your entire first point is inaccurate. Her closing four points off the gap NOW is absolutely noteworthy, absent Trump's post-convention stagnation. For you to understand polls, you'd have to know what you're looking at and I don't really think you do. Again, Biden was gaining in the polls prior to withdrawal. Post-debate, there was a slight bump in overall percentage for Biden. Then, the media campaign got started in earnest, the Dems started bickering and the roof caved in. Organically, you might expect Harris to benefit solely based off the damage control and the switch, but it wouldn't be this significant and it wouldn't cross multiple important demographics like it has. She's polling better in places you wouldn't expect her to, based off her previous failures. I understand as someone who probably supports Trump to some degree that you don't want this to be a thing, but it absolutely is. Between the record fundraising amounts, the ability to capture the Gen Z side of things, the lack of stability in the Trump campaign right now? Her momentum gain is real. Will it last? We don't know. And one more thing on the betting markets in particular: The reason why Trump (who was -210 last week, now down to -150ish) will continue to see that line decline is simple implied probability. There's no world where he wins this election 60+% of the time when he's capped around 47% of the popular vote. The only caveat to that is if we see something dramatic or unforeseen that seismically shifts the perception of the race. First off, I'm not a Trump supporter to any degree, any longer. I just like to see consistency in people's answers. I thought Trump did a good job in key areas, but he failed in leading a Nation in togetherness and harmony. I think he's an a****le. I don't recall you ever supporting one Trump poll. You shot them down consistently. I get what your agenda is, but when you're blatantly, at times, inconsistent and obviously bias in your answers, myself or someone else will bring it up if noticed. I would expect the same thing for me. It seems like you still do, though. Your answers consistently indicate vindication for Trump, to some extent. It's not about me supporting a "Trump" poll, I'm not supporting the conclusions that are drawn from that poll from a particular poster (One, in particular, for very basic reasons.) A poll showing Trump up +3 in ______ from a C- poll means very little to me, it should mean very little to you, too. A poll showing Harris +4 in say, Pennsylvania, from a Fox poll or a reputable publication? That means more, simply based on math, optics and data. You're not bringing up anything I haven't admitted to. So I don't know what you hope to accomplish. Read the post directly below the previous one. |
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 26, 2024 16:42:51 GMT -8
Harris is winning this thing in November. Trump will sue, Trump will cry foul, Trump will allege all sorts of wrongdoing, and, finally, Trump will call for his supporters to, "Fight," for him, inciting violence.
But, in the end, Trump will be done.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 16:45:59 GMT -8
Harris is winning this thing in November. Trump will sue, Trump will cry foul, Trump will allege all sorts of wrongdoing, and, finally, Trump will call for his supporters to, "Fight," for him, inciting violence. But, in the end, Trump will be done. Here's my concern: Red states will decline to certify ballots. Issue goes to a bought and paid for Supreme Court which leaves no real mechanism for appeal. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 16:53:41 GMT -8
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Post by uwphoto on Jul 26, 2024 17:25:23 GMT -8
Harris is winning this thing in November. Trump will sue, Trump will cry foul, Trump will allege all sorts of wrongdoing, and, finally, Trump will call for his supporters to, "Fight," for him, inciting violence. But, in the end, Trump will be done. Guaranteed riot...cause he's a piece of $#!+. |
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 26, 2024 18:09:06 GMT -8
Harris is winning this thing in November. Trump will sue, Trump will cry foul, Trump will allege all sorts of wrongdoing, and, finally, Trump will call for his supporters to, "Fight," for him, inciting violence. But, in the end, Trump will be done. Here's my concern: Red states will decline to certify ballots. Issue goes to a bought and paid for Supreme Court which leaves no real mechanism for appeal. Yeah, at that point Kamala certifies the electoral votes that were counted, regardless of the state doing it's job. The votes will have been counted. Everyone will know who won. If the Republicans in charge try to overturn the election that's going to blow back on them big time. Treason. Sedition. Not a good look, especially when people are looking for it. |
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Post by uwphoto on Jul 26, 2024 18:25:01 GMT -8
Harris is winning this thing in November. Trump will sue, Trump will cry foul, Trump will allege all sorts of wrongdoing, and, finally, Trump will call for his supporters to, "Fight," for him, inciting violence. But, in the end, Trump will be done. Guaranteed riot...cause he's a piece of $#!+. ok, less reactive, but you can see this guy coming from a mile away. Nothing he does is a surprise. He will do exactly as you have predicted here. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 18:46:32 GMT -8
Trump essentially said tonight "In four years, you won't have to vote."
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 26, 2024 19:03:09 GMT -8
First off, I'm not a Trump supporter to any degree, any longer. I just like to see consistency in people's answers. I thought Trump did a good job in key areas, but he failed in leading a Nation in togetherness and harmony. I think he's an a****le. I don't recall you ever supporting one Trump poll. You shot them down consistently. I get what your agenda is, but when you're blatantly, at times, inconsistent and obviously bias in your answers, myself or someone else will bring it up if noticed. I would expect the same thing for me. It seems like you still do, though. Your answers consistently indicate vindication for Trump, to some extent. It's not about me supporting a "Trump" poll, I'm not supporting the conclusions that are drawn from that poll from a particular poster (One, in particular, for very basic reasons.) A poll showing Trump up +3 in ______ from a C- poll means very little to me, it should mean very little to you, too. A poll showing Harris +4 in say, Pennsylvania, from a Fox poll or a reputable publication? That means more, simply based on math, optics and data. You're not bringing up anything I haven't admitted to. So I don't know what you hope to accomplish. Read the post directly below the previous one. My posts may seem to be vindication for Trump, but I'm only trying to bring reality, and fairness to a situation. Nothing more, nothing less. I sincerely do not care if you believe me, or not, when it comes to Trump and how I feel about him, and my stance on him. No big deal. When I hear from you consistently in just about EVERY poll, for example, "This poll having Trump in the lead is misleading, and it will change when it gets closer to the election" opposed to, "Hey, check out this poll with Biden or Kamala gaining ground, or in the lead here", seems very disingenuous. Bottom line is, any poll that has come out in favor of Trump you've downplayed. Any poll on favor of Biden, or Harris, you applaud and basically say, "Hey, looky there." It's VERY blatant, and disingenuous, but I get that you have an agenda. Just expect someone to highlight what you're doing. |
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Post by bnastyaztecs on Jul 26, 2024 19:14:09 GMT -8
Harris is winning this thing in November. Trump will sue, Trump will cry foul, Trump will allege all sorts of wrongdoing, and, finally, Trump will call for his supporters to, "Fight," for him, inciting violence. But, in the end, Trump will be done. Here's my concern: Red states will decline to certify ballots. Issue goes to a bought and paid for Supreme Court which leaves no real mechanism for appeal. If not certified...Joe stays in office...becomes a king...as long as it's in his job description.... |
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 26, 2024 19:17:04 GMT -8
After this hilariously incoherent, rambling and divisive speech, maybe Jill Stein. I was considering voting for Stein over Biden before he dropped out. Will Harris nominate her though, given that Stein is with the Green party? |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 26, 2024 19:19:36 GMT -8
It seems like you still do, though. Your answers consistently indicate vindication for Trump, to some extent. It's not about me supporting a "Trump" poll, I'm not supporting the conclusions that are drawn from that poll from a particular poster (One, in particular, for very basic reasons.) A poll showing Trump up +3 in ______ from a C- poll means very little to me, it should mean very little to you, too. A poll showing Harris +4 in say, Pennsylvania, from a Fox poll or a reputable publication? That means more, simply based on math, optics and data. You're not bringing up anything I haven't admitted to. So I don't know what you hope to accomplish. Read the post directly below the previous one. My posts may seem to be vindication for Trump, but I'm only trying to bring reality, and fairness to a situation. Nothing more, nothing less. I sincerely do not care if you believe me, or not, when it comes to Trump and how I feel about him, and my stance on him. No big deal. When I hear from you consistently in just about EVERY poll, for example, "This poll having Trump in the lead is misleading, and it will change when it gets closer to the election" opposed to, "Hey, check out this poll with Biden or Kamala gaining ground, or in the lead here", seems very disingenuous. Bottom line is, any poll that has come out in favor of Trump you've downplayed. Any poll on favor of Biden, or Harris, you applaud and basically say, "Hey, looky there." It's VERY blatant, and disingenuous, but I get that you have an agenda. Just expect someone to highlight what you're doing. You don't need to bring fairness when it isn't warranted. Not everything needs it, believe it or not. Bigotry is bad. Hate is bad. Division is bad. Racism is bad. Dictatorships are bad. Felonies are bad. Stealing national security information is bad. Those don't need a "Welllll, but....." attached to them. You're not achieving much here, this isn't about fairness, it's about politics. It's not disingenuous at all. I am not here to suck up, patronize or feed the trolls. 0.0% of the time. This goes back to my original point: I'm going to clarify obvious trolling with reality, since I understand basic stats. Classic point: A certain poster says "All swing states are pointing towards Trump." Okay, but Trump +1 is the same thing as Harris +1 when a standard poll has a MOE of 2.5-3%. It means nothing. If you don't expect the race to get tighter once Kamala is formally nominated, I don't know what to tell you. As I said before, there is no planet where Trump wins 60% of the time. His ceiling is almost maxed out right now, barring something changing the perception of voters in a major way. I'll say this again: Topics like this require nuance and critical thinking. Minnesota isn't going to operate the same as Georgia. North Carolina is not going to operate the same as Arizona. Nevada and Texas? Same thing. Different things will move the needle in different states at different times. Some things in a major way, other things in a minor way. The specifics matter, here, now. I don't know what you want from me, but I'll tell you like it is from my point of view. I'm not here to bull$#!+ you, or anyone else. We are on different sides of the spectrum and that's the reality of the situation. If you were to have a question about a SPECIFIC poll, I could probably elaborate and tell you why, but I'm guessing you'll accuse me of spin, lying or being deceitful. |
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