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Post by 94sdsu on Mar 25, 2024 14:15:30 GMT -8
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Post by laaztec on Mar 25, 2024 14:44:03 GMT -8
They are never joining the MWC. That is admitting defeat.
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Post by lemkotir on Mar 25, 2024 15:00:17 GMT -8
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Post by montezumaduck on Mar 25, 2024 15:09:52 GMT -8
I think it was estimated there was about $200m in assets in the PAC. In addition to that agreement, they have another $20m for this year's tourney (and potentially going up with AZ). Probably come close to $300m when you factor in that departing schools have to pay to use existing media as well.
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Post by standiego on Mar 25, 2024 16:25:37 GMT -8
Respect what they are trying to do reforming the PAC - after getting screwed by the schools that are leaving
important thing that they are pursuing is trying to get a decent TV media if they can then who knows what may happen if not they fall into the MW
Can only hope they are able to pull it off
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Post by aztecbrothers on Mar 26, 2024 11:28:34 GMT -8
With the PAC12 name and represented as the "Conference of Champions", they can still keep that moniker since the Championships were done in the PAC....lol Keeping the Conference named PAC12 will keep the door open for the "loser schools" that left due to ignorant greed.
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Post by 94sdsu on Mar 26, 2024 11:37:56 GMT -8
And what exactly are they trying to "pull off". A rebuild of the PAC X? I suspect that'd be the case, but to what end? Let's say they add 6 schools to get to the minimum number of 8, the most likely candidates are...
SDSU
CSU
BSU
FSU
AFA
UNLV
Is this group going to bring in more media value per school than the current MWC at 12 schools? Seems to me like they'll be needing more schools to get the amount of inventory up so that means that they'll have to add other schools, which will in turn start bringing down the $$$ per school. I thought rebuilding the PAC was viable until Calford and SMU went to the ACC, now there's simply not enough quality institutions.
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Post by myownwords on Mar 26, 2024 11:54:48 GMT -8
And what exactly are they trying to "pull off". A rebuild of the PAC X? I suspect that'd be the case, but to what end? Let's say they add 6 schools to get to the minimum number of 8, the most likely candidates are... SDSU CSU BSU FSU AFA UNLV Is this group going to bring in more media value per school than the current MWC at 12 schools? Seems to me like they'll be needing more schools to get the amount of inventory up so that means that they'll have to add other schools, which will in turn start bringing down the $$$ per school. I thought rebuilding the PAC was viable until Calford and SMU went to the ACC, now there's simply not enough quality institutions. I suspect that they are very likely leaning on "a wing and a prayer", that some of "backslider" schools will "slide back" before the 2 years expires. If not, then they realize that they will simply sublimate into The Ghost of PAC PAST, adsorbed by the MWC |
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Post by montezumaduck on Mar 26, 2024 11:54:55 GMT -8
And what exactly are they trying to "pull off". A rebuild of the PAC X? I suspect that'd be the case, but to what end? Let's say they add 6 schools to get to the minimum number of 8, the most likely candidates are... SDSU CSU BSU FSU AFA UNLV Is this group going to bring in more media value per school than the current MWC at 12 schools? Seems to me like they'll be needing more schools to get the amount of inventory up so that means that they'll have to add other schools, which will in turn start bringing down the $$$ per school. I thought rebuilding the PAC was viable until Calford and SMU went to the ACC, now there's simply not enough quality institutions. WSU's AD (who coincidentally just left for UW)has stated the goal is actually have the 2 schools to get into a P4 conference. They're hoping additional changes happen within their 2-year window to exist with 2 schools. If that doesn't happen (most likely) you see a reverse merger with the MWC. BTW, they are about to finalize their TV deal for football with the CW. |
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Post by Gundo on Mar 26, 2024 12:14:17 GMT -8
Lets take a look, U.S. News & World Report published its Best Colleges 2023 rankings, and there was a good bit of movement from 2022 to 2023 rankings among Mountain West schools here they are:
No. 105-tie: San Diego State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 143, 140)
No. 151-tie: Colorado State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 153, 166)
No. 170: Hawaii (previous four years of rankings: 166, 162, 170, 166)
No. 185-tie: Fresno State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 213, 196, 211)
No. 195-tie: Nevada (previous four years of rankings: 263, 227, 227, 240)
No. 216-tie: Wyoming (previous four years of rankings: 202, 196, 196, 228)
No. 236: New Mexico (previous four years of rankings: 212, 196, 187, 218)
No. 269-tie: Utah State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 249, 241, 254)
No. 269-tie: UNLV (previous four years of rankings: 285, 249, 258, Tier II school)
No. 332-tie: Boise State (previous four years of rankings: was ranked as a Tier II school the last four years)
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Post by PAC12 Aztec on Mar 26, 2024 12:40:27 GMT -8
Lets take a look, U.S. News & World Report published its Best Colleges 2023 rankings, and there was a good bit of movement from 2022 to 2023 rankings among Mountain West schools here they are: No. 105-tie: San Diego State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 143, 140) No. 151-tie: Colorado State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 153, 166) No. 170: Hawaii (previous four years of rankings: 166, 162, 170, 166) No. 185-tie: Fresno State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 213, 196, 211) No. 195-tie: Nevada (previous four years of rankings: 263, 227, 227, 240) No. 216-tie: Wyoming (previous four years of rankings: 202, 196, 196, 228) No. 236: New Mexico (previous four years of rankings: 212, 196, 187, 218) No. 269-tie: Utah State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 249, 241, 254) No. 269-tie: UNLV (previous four years of rankings: 285, 249, 258, Tier II school) No. 332-tie: Boise State (previous four years of rankings: was ranked as a Tier II school the last four years) Yikes, based on these numbers, I don't see CALFORD ever coming back with UNLV, Donkies or Fresno State. |
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Mar 26, 2024 13:04:18 GMT -8
And what exactly are they trying to "pull off". A rebuild of the PAC X? I suspect that'd be the case, but to what end? Let's say they add 6 schools to get to the minimum number of 8, the most likely candidates are... SDSU CSU BSU FSU AFA UNLV Is this group going to bring in more media value per school than the current MWC at 12 schools? Seems to me like they'll be needing more schools to get the amount of inventory up so that means that they'll have to add other schools, which will in turn start bringing down the $$$ per school. I thought rebuilding the PAC was viable until Calford and SMU went to the ACC, now there's simply not enough quality institutions. WSU's AD (who coincidentally just left for UW)has stated the goal is actually have the 2 schools to get into a P4 conference. They're hoping additional changes happen within their 2-year window to exist with 2 schools. If that doesn't happen (most likely) you see a reverse merger with the MWC. BTW, they are about to finalize their TV deal for football with the CW. The CW is a good move. They PAC will produce the games and then split the revenue with the CW 50/50. A 30 second national ad on the CW will be between 10K and $50K. There are about 60 minutes of ads in a football game. SO that is about 120 30 second ads. 120x $10,000 = $1.2M. $1.2M per game times 13 home games, that is $15.6M gross. I think the cost to produce a game may be close to $200K. That's $2.6M of cost. So $15.2M in net revenue on the high end or $2.6M per team. That is 12.4M in total revenue to split. I don't what they will get for an AD Rate, but it will be interesting to see. www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/10/31/fall-prime-time-tv-ad-prices-nbc-sunday-night-football-wwe-smackdown-foxI don't think they will get $50K per 30 second ad rate which would equate to WWE but who knows. The ACC games on the CW did pretty good. www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/09/13/audience-analysis-cw-acc-football#:~:text=Audience%20Analysis%3A%20The%20CW%20draws%20617%2C000%20viewers%20for%20first%20ACC%20CFB%20game,-By%20Austin%20Karp&text=with%20the%20ACC-,.,on%20Saturdays%20in%20October%202021. |
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Post by hoobs on Mar 26, 2024 13:25:52 GMT -8
I think they'd be fine with UNLV, as they are R1... which matters more than (or at least equally as much) as the very subjective rankings by USW&NR.
Other R1 schools who could be considered as candidates for a 'rebuilt' PAC X:
Colorado State
Tulane
Hawaii
Memphis
Nevada (Reno)
New Mexico
Rice
UTSA
Utah State
...and the plan is for SDSU to get upgraded to R1 quite soon (& we assume we're an automatic invite anyway)
So I'd say Wazzu and the Beavers could pick the 8 of those with the best media contract value to get to 10 total members. If they picked Hawaii... it could potentially be football only and then try to get Gonzaga to fill the 10th spot for all other sports. Personally, I would leave out Memphis and Utah State but that's without seeing how the various schools add different $$$ value.
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Post by MontezumasRevenge on Mar 26, 2024 13:58:01 GMT -8
And what exactly are they trying to "pull off". A rebuild of the PAC X? I suspect that'd be the case, but to what end? Let's say they add 6 schools to get to the minimum number of 8, the most likely candidates are... SDSU CSU BSU FSU AFA UNLV Is this group going to bring in more media value per school than the current MWC at 12 schools? Seems to me like they'll be needing more schools to get the amount of inventory up so that means that they'll have to add other schools, which will in turn start bringing down the $$$ per school. I thought rebuilding the PAC was viable until Calford and SMU went to the ACC, now there's simply not enough quality institutions. I suspect that they are very likely leaning on "a wing and a prayer", that some of "backslider" schools will "slide back" before the 2 years expires. If not, then they realize that they will simply sublimate into The Ghost of PAC PAST, adsorbed by the MWC My guess is they are hoping the ACC loses some schools but doesn't completely fall apart within 2 years and then then they would be potential replacement candidates. |
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Post by standiego on Mar 26, 2024 14:08:14 GMT -8
For right now ( or the next year or two ) SDSU and others will observe what the P2 are able to put together - while SDSU tries to build up its Football Program
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Post by standiego on Mar 26, 2024 14:58:13 GMT -8
would guess that the Tv/Media groups that OSU and WSU are talking with will be looking at the Viewers for the schools that might be considered -
Does CSU have that much now that U of Colorado has done so well in the ratings
AFA may have a good Football team on the field - but what is their following for TV Viewers - think they might be better with AAC / Navy and army
also what is the elevation and travel like to get to those schools
wonder if Fresno with Central Valley areas is a better fit for Tv and travel
same with Reno - San Jose ...
Does Rice have many Viewers - Memphis is more likely for Eastern Conference
Do think UTSA or another school in Texas would be preferable to the mountain schools
Little doubt the TV/Media group has a marketing team that might have that information and they are the driving force in the TV deal to make the PAC viable
has hurt the P2 that they have lost their quality HC and staff then players
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Post by LostAztec on Mar 28, 2024 7:34:28 GMT -8
I think they'd be fine with UNLV, as they are R1... which matters more than (or at least equally as much) as the very subjective rankings by USW&NR. Other R1 schools who could be considered as candidates for a 'rebuilt' PAC X: Colorado State Tulane Hawaii Memphis Nevada (Reno) New Mexico Rice UTSA Utah State ...and the plan is for SDSU to get upgraded to R1 quite soon (& we assume we're an automatic invite anyway) So I'd say Wazzu and the Beavers could pick the 8 of those with the best media contract value to get to 10 total members. If they picked Hawaii... it could potentially be football only and then try to get Gonzaga to fill the 10th spot for all other sports. Personally, I would leave out Memphis and Utah State but that's without seeing how the various schools add different $$$ value. I know the Utags get a lot of flak on here, but they are R1 and have a large research endowment. They have an Engineering Program partnership with ATK Thiokol. They even developed their own tomato. The Hansen Dx-252. It's a flavorful all rounder that does well in our high desert growing environment. Quite tasty. Most of their grads are in SLC, which is a booming TV market. Their FB program has become consistent and the B-ball side is second only to the Aztecs. If they could just keep a Coach long term. They would be a solid add to a perspective Pac10 but miss the cut at 8. Pac 8 -OSU -Wazzu -Boozy -Fresno -Sparty (to create a Cal State power base. No more being captive to the Front Rangers.) -UNLV -CS-ewe -UNM Add USU and UNR for 10. Saint Marys and Gonzaga for Basketball only. |
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Post by standiego on Mar 28, 2024 8:12:10 GMT -8
This is primarily about Football so you look at the Viewers there are for those schools and the competition there is for P6 viewers in those areas and NOT having to travel to altitude or remote areas that require Bus travel
So Fresno has most boxes filled - and so does BSU - would also take a look at San Jose and even Reno
CSU - does not have the following as U of Colorado is dominant
AFA - does not and should be be Navy and Army in AAC plus both schools are in altitude
Loboland has given up on Football
Texas schools might be good option - if they have Good Tv Viewers and do have Airport for travel
the answers for Viewers of course is up to TV / Media to provide their choices
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Post by sdmotohead on Mar 28, 2024 9:14:53 GMT -8
Did we forget about the exit fee that the MW has in place if OSU and WSU poach schools? Each additional school will cost an extra $2mil if I remember right.
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Post by fowl on Mar 28, 2024 9:42:32 GMT -8
Did we forget about the exit fee that the MW has in place if OSU and WSU poach schools? Each additional school will cost an extra $2mil if I remember right. $10mm for the first school and it increases by $0.5mm for each incremental school. So to poach six MW schools it would cost roughly $67.5mm from the Pac 2. Then add on to that the exit fees charged to each school which is either 3x's the most recent conference distribution (~$18mm) if notice is given more than one year out or double that amount if given under one year. Let's assume that notice is given >1 year out. The total amount the Pac 2 and/or the departing schools would owe is $175.5mm. Let's assume further that by some miracle the departing schools are able to negotiate down the exit fee in half. That still would cost the Pac 2 $121.5mm to reconstitute the Pac. Is it worth that amount to WSU/OSU to be in the MWC minus six of the less desirable schools? No chance they get a significantly better media deal than what the MW already has. They should just merge with the MW and pocket that money. |
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