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Post by FULL_MONTY on Mar 28, 2024 10:05:40 GMT -8
Did we forget about the exit fee that the MW has in place if OSU and WSU poach schools? Each additional school will cost an extra $2mil if I remember right. $10mm for the first school and it increases by $0.5mm for each incremental school. So to poach six MW schools it would cost roughly $67.5mm from the Pac 2. Then add on to that the exit fees charged to each school which is either 3x's the most recent conference distribution (~$18mm) if notice is given more than one year out or double that amount if given under one year. Let's assume that notice is given >1 year out. The total amount the Pac 2 and/or the departing schools would owe is $175.5mm. Let's assume further that by some miracle the departing schools are able to negotiate down the exit fee in half. That still would cost the Pac 2 $121.5mm to reconstitute the Pac. Is it worth that amount to WSU/OSU to be in the MWC minus six of the less desirable schools? No chance they get a significantly better media deal than what the MW already has. They should just merge with the MW and pocket that money. I agree to a point. Let's say the exit fee is negotiated to 1/2 and that the total amount is split between the PAC 12 and the departing schools. $67.5M $54.0M $121.5M Let's assume that a 4 year payback is required for the transaction needs to make sense. Hence, $121.5/ 4 years / 8 universities. That would require that the TV deal the departing 8 could negotiation would be $3.8M better than what they would receive in a 14 team league. The Mountain west is currently receiving $4M per school. If we assume that 80% of the value would be in the departing schools, just by dropping the dead weight the departing teams would increase their payout form $4.0m. $48M * 80% / 6 = $6.4M a $2.4M increase. It doesn't get over the finish line, but you can see the math is not far off espcially if you are willing to accept a 5 year payback. Would you spend that money today to breakeven over the next five years and then reap that going forward? Most likely yes. But these are all assumptions, but the math has to be in the neighborhood. |
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Post by aztech on Mar 28, 2024 10:24:31 GMT -8
Did we forget about the exit fee that the MW has in place if OSU and WSU poach schools? Each additional school will cost an extra $2mil if I remember right. $10mm for the first school and it increases by $0.5mm for each incremental school. So to poach six MW schools it would cost roughly $67.5mm from the Pac 2. Then add on to that the exit fees charged to each school which is either 3x's the most recent conference distribution (~$18mm) if notice is given more than one year out or double that amount if given under one year. Let's assume that notice is given >1 year out. The total amount the Pac 2 and/or the departing schools would owe is $175.5mm. Let's assume further that by some miracle the departing schools are able to negotiate down the exit fee in half. That still would cost the Pac 2 $121.5mm to reconstitute the Pac. Is it worth that amount to WSU/OSU to be in the MWC minus six of the less desirable schools? No chance they get a significantly better media deal than what the MW already has. They should just merge with the MW and pocket that money. Don't forget that as long as the Pac exists, even in name only, the P2 will receive the earned MBB credits. There's no question that we want out of the MWC, but are the others willing to pay the exit fees to join? If yes, then I disagree about the media deal. The newly expanded Pac media deal will be higher than what the MWC currently gets and the MWC's will become lower in the long run since they'll be losing the higher media markets. So I could see a forthcoming catfight between the two commissioners. LOL |
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Post by fowl on Mar 28, 2024 18:43:32 GMT -8
$10mm for the first school and it increases by $0.5mm for each incremental school. So to poach six MW schools it would cost roughly $67.5mm from the Pac 2. Then add on to that the exit fees charged to each school which is either 3x's the most recent conference distribution (~$18mm) if notice is given more than one year out or double that amount if given under one year. Let's assume that notice is given >1 year out. The total amount the Pac 2 and/or the departing schools would owe is $175.5mm. Let's assume further that by some miracle the departing schools are able to negotiate down the exit fee in half. That still would cost the Pac 2 $121.5mm to reconstitute the Pac. Is it worth that amount to WSU/OSU to be in the MWC minus six of the less desirable schools? No chance they get a significantly better media deal than what the MW already has. They should just merge with the MW and pocket that money. I agree to a point. Let's say the exit fee is negotiated to 1/2 and that the total amount is split between the PAC 12 and the departing schools. $67.5M $54.0M $121.5M Let's assume that a 4 year payback is required for the transaction needs to make sense. Hence, $121.5/ 4 years / 8 universities. That would require that the TV deal the departing 8 could negotiation would be $3.8M better than what they would receive in a 14 team league. The Mountain west is currently receiving $4M per school. If we assume that 80% of the value would be in the departing schools, just by dropping the dead weight the departing teams would increase their payout form $4.0m. $48M * 80% / 6 = $6.4M a $2.4M increase. It doesn't get over the finish line, but you can see the math is not far off espcially if you are willing to accept a 5 year payback. Would you spend that money today to breakeven over the next five years and then reap that going forward? Most likely yes. But these are all assumptions, but the math has to be in the neighborhood. I wish it would come to fruition but I can't see any administrator willing to gamble on several lower probability events ALL occurring at the same time and the payoff being 4+ years out when we all know WSU/OSU will split at the drop of a hat. Highly probably nothing happens and WSU/OSU try to join the Big 12/ACC and if that falls through merges with the MW. |
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Post by zurac315 on Mar 28, 2024 19:39:42 GMT -8
Lets take a look, U.S. News & World Report published its Best Colleges 2023 rankings, and there was a good bit of movement from 2022 to 2023 rankings among Mountain West schools here they are: No. 105-tie: San Diego State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 143, 140) No. 151-tie: Colorado State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 153, 166) No. 170: Hawaii (previous four years of rankings: 166, 162, 170, 166) No. 185-tie: Fresno State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 213, 196, 211) No. 195-tie: Nevada (previous four years of rankings: 263, 227, 227, 240) No. 216-tie: Wyoming (previous four years of rankings: 202, 196, 196, 228) No. 236: New Mexico (previous four years of rankings: 212, 196, 187, 218) No. 269-tie: Utah State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 249, 241, 254) No. 269-tie: UNLV (previous four years of rankings: 285, 249, 258, Tier II school) No. 332-tie: Boise State (previous four years of rankings: was ranked as a Tier II school the last four years) Wow, Boise! Impressive! |
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Post by smoothcat on Mar 29, 2024 7:03:44 GMT -8
I have a feeling schools like Cal and Stanford will regret making this decision and want to come back almost immediately.
Of course, thanks to Georgie K, there is nothing to come back to.
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Post by newyorker2586 on Mar 29, 2024 7:33:45 GMT -8
If I’m the PAC- go
I’d invite
SDSU
UNLV
Boise St
Hawaii
Air Force
New Mexico
AFA
Colorado St
Non football
Gonzaga
SF/St.Mary’s/LBSU
10 Football/11 Basketball
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Post by Cwag on Mar 29, 2024 7:34:35 GMT -8
Boise is where athletes can go if they want an easy degree and lots of free potatoes.
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Mar 29, 2024 7:49:26 GMT -8
I agree to a point. Let's say the exit fee is negotiated to 1/2 and that the total amount is split between the PAC 12 and the departing schools. $67.5M $54.0M $121.5M Let's assume that a 4 year payback is required for the transaction needs to make sense. Hence, $121.5/ 4 years / 8 universities. That would require that the TV deal the departing 8 could negotiation would be $3.8M better than what they would receive in a 14 team league. The Mountain west is currently receiving $4M per school. If we assume that 80% of the value would be in the departing schools, just by dropping the dead weight the departing teams would increase their payout form $4.0m. $48M * 80% / 6 = $6.4M a $2.4M increase. It doesn't get over the finish line, but you can see the math is not far off espcially if you are willing to accept a 5 year payback. Would you spend that money today to breakeven over the next five years and then reap that going forward? Most likely yes. But these are all assumptions, but the math has to be in the neighborhood. I wish it would come to fruition but I can't see any administrator willing to gamble on several lower probability events ALL occurring at the same time and the payoff being 4+ years out when we all know WSU/OSU will split at the drop of a hat. Highly probably nothing happens and WSU/OSU try to join the Big 12/ACC and if that falls through merges with the MW. I honestly don't think the PAC2 is interested in anything but stockpiling their cash for the next two years and try to join the MW or stay independent and move everything else into the WCC. A regrouping of the PAC in their eyes would be leveling up competitors in the MW. JMO. |
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Post by hoobs on Mar 29, 2024 9:19:22 GMT -8
I am pretty sure the Pac 2 has to stay in "the Pac" and keep the conference / brand alive... otherwise I don't think they just get to "keep" the money. But they can use that stockpile to pay the exit fees of the schools they want to hand-pick to basically re-start the PAC.
At least that's my understanding.
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Post by standiego on Mar 29, 2024 9:31:32 GMT -8
In basics as of today a New PAC is probably the best option for SDSU to support if it really wants to try to move out of the MW
some may hope that the AAC tries to add a west Division but until that happens a revised PAC might seem the best alternative and as of today the new PAC can not depend on CAL or Stanford returning
football is still the driving force for Networks so would guess that SDSU does what it can do in the mean time
Teams other then OSU and WSU for a new PAC will primarily be chosen by TV/ Media by their TV Viewers numbers - and the hope by some of us to not include Altitude schools or for the minor sports and travel - not east of Texas
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Post by aztech on Mar 29, 2024 10:49:11 GMT -8
I have a feeling schools like Cal and Stanford will regret making this decision and want to come back almost immediately. Of course, thanks to Georgie K, there is nothing to come back to. I would think that their new commissioner Teresa Gould contacted the media networks to discuss the various what ifs. There's no question that they'll have to reach a conclusion within a certain timeframe, whatever that is. |
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Mar 29, 2024 10:53:23 GMT -8
I am pretty sure the Pac 2 has to stay in "the Pac" and keep the conference / brand alive... otherwise I don't think they just get to "keep" the money. But they can use that stockpile to pay the exit fees of the schools they want to hand-pick to basically re-start the PAC. At least that's my understanding. The conference has 3 main sources of revenue. TV Money - they are already on their own. CFP Bowl Money - $50M for the next two years $100M in total) Tourney Money - $65M over the next 6 years. They will collect more than a third in two years. P12 settlement money - $65M They can collect about $34M in two years in basketball credits, $100M in the next two years from the Rose Bowl and CFP, and $65M in P12 settlement for a total of $200M by just letting he two years lapse. They will then either do the reverse merger with the MW and include everyone as to not pay a dime, join the MW as to not pay a dime, or stay independent/wcc and not spend a dime. They are looking to stay above the MW and hold down competitors all while retaining $100M each to maintain their advantage. |
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Post by lemkotir on Mar 29, 2024 15:05:00 GMT -8
www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/26/pac-12-legal-affairs-what-the-negotiated-settlement-means-for-wsu-osu-and-the-10-departing-members/A lot of juicy details here, written by Wilner. -The Cougars and Beavers also are entitled to all NCAA Tournament revenue paid out in future years, including the money earned by departing schools, as well as the distributions from the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff. - The total assets should land in the $250 million range — enough for the Cougars and Beavers to fund athletic operations and potentially rebuild the conference during the two-year grace period allowed by the NCAA. (Starting with the 2026 football season, the Pac-12 must have at least eight members.) - Another provision designed to protect the outbound schools: If the conference dissolves before August 2026, all 12 members will share the remaining assets, thus ensuring WSU and OSU cannot turn out the lights and keep all the assets for themselves. They took perhaps the worst hand in the history of college sports and did not fold — all while remaining free to explore their options and prepare for multiple outcomes. They are not bound to anything or anyone beyond the spring of 2026. By then, college sports as we know it might not exist. The ACC could crumble, sparking massive realignment. Athletes could be declared employees, their salaries paid by the schools. A football super league could be in the works for the 20 or 30 heavyweight programs, leaving all others on a second tier with Washington State and Oregon State. Nobody knows exactly what’s coming, but everybody knows something’s coming.
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Post by aztech on Mar 29, 2024 16:38:52 GMT -8
www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/26/pac-12-legal-affairs-what-the-negotiated-settlement-means-for-wsu-osu-and-the-10-departing-members/A lot of juicy details here, written by Wilner. -The Cougars and Beavers also are entitled to all NCAA Tournament revenue paid out in future years, including the money earned by departing schools, as well as the distributions from the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff. - The total assets should land in the $250 million range — enough for the Cougars and Beavers to fund athletic operations and potentially rebuild the conference during the two-year grace period allowed by the NCAA. (Starting with the 2026 football season, the Pac-12 must have at least eight members.) - Another provision designed to protect the outbound schools: If the conference dissolves before August 2026, all 12 members will share the remaining assets, thus ensuring WSU and OSU cannot turn out the lights and keep all the assets for themselves. They took perhaps the worst hand in the history of college sports and did not fold — all while remaining free to explore their options and prepare for multiple outcomes. They are not bound to anything or anyone beyond the spring of 2026. By then, college sports as we know it might not exist. The ACC could crumble, sparking massive realignment. Athletes could be declared employees, their salaries paid by the schools. A football super league could be in the works for the 20 or 30 heavyweight programs, leaving all others on a second tier with Washington State and Oregon State. Nobody knows exactly what’s coming, but everybody knows something’s coming. I don't buy that employee garbage. After all they're "students" aren't they? The schools can say if they want to be employees then feel free to join the G league. |
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Post by standiego on Mar 30, 2024 8:05:17 GMT -8
Who is handling the talking to the Media about a TV / Media deal that is quite important for most schools
Again it boils down to football viewers and what schools have a decent market that the Media wants to try to get and advertisers
The Conference would only need 8 schools to start - 6 after the the PAC 2
although adding the Zags and St Mary's for all sports except football could help a lot of the sports including basketball
As of today it is either the new PAC or back to the MW
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Post by aztech on Apr 1, 2024 20:41:15 GMT -8
Who is handling the talking to the Media about a TV / Media deal that is quite important for most schools Again it boils down to football viewers and what schools have a decent market that the Media wants to try to get and advertisers The Conference would only need 8 schools to start - 6 after the the PAC 2 although adding the Zags and St Mary's for all sports except football could help a lot of the sports including basketball As of today it is either the new PAC or back to the MW I just read Florida State and Clemson are joining the Big 10 in 2025. Don't know if it's an April Fools joke though. After fact checking it was BS. Another AF joke was OSU joining Oregon to the Big. Geezus. |
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Post by samurai on Apr 2, 2024 0:49:22 GMT -8
I don't think OSU/Wazzu are going to spend the money to rebuild the PAC. I think they are going to take the easy road and reverse merge with the MWC. I would only be OK with that if the MWC kicks out at least 2 schools before the merger. It would have to be a newer member since the 6 remaining charter schools can not be kicked out.
For me, the 2 schools would be Hawaii & Utah State. I like Hawaii but they are a football only member that hasn't brought much to football. I despise Utah State and they never should have been allowed into the conference. The new PAC-12 would have 4 pods of 3 schools each. You play the 2 other schools in your pod every year.
PAC-12
San Diego State
Fresno State
San Jose State
Oregon State
Washington State
Boise State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming
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Post by aztecfred on Apr 2, 2024 7:17:05 GMT -8
I don't think OSU/Wazzu are going to spend the money to rebuild the PAC. I think they are going to take the easy road and reverse merge with the MWC. I would only be OK with that if the MWC kicks out at least 2 schools before the merger. It would have to be a newer member since the 6 remaining charter schools can not be kicked out. For me, the 2 schools would be Hawaii & Utah State. I like Hawaii but they are a football only member that hasn't brought much to football. I despise Utah State and they never should have been allowed into the conference. The new PAC-12 would have 4 pods of 3 schools each. You play the 2 other schools in your pod every year. PAC-12San Diego State Fresno State San Jose State Oregon State Washington State Boise State Nevada UNLV New Mexico Colorado State Air Force Wyoming Just curious, why shouldn't UT ST have been added? Their are a couple I wouldn't mind never seeing again. |
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Post by laaztec on Apr 2, 2024 8:14:40 GMT -8
I don't think OSU/Wazzu are going to spend the money to rebuild the PAC. I think they are going to take the easy road and reverse merge with the MWC. I would only be OK with that if the MWC kicks out at least 2 schools before the merger. It would have to be a newer member since the 6 remaining charter schools can not be kicked out. For me, the 2 schools would be Hawaii & Utah State. I like Hawaii but they are a football only member that hasn't brought much to football. I despise Utah State and they never should have been allowed into the conference. The new PAC-12 would have 4 pods of 3 schools each. You play the 2 other schools in your pod every year. PAC-12San Diego State Fresno State San Jose State Oregon State Washington State Boise State Nevada UNLV New Mexico Colorado State Air Force Wyoming No San Jose, Wyoming, Nevada or New Mexico. Keep the new PAC small and wait for Calford to come back when they realize the ACC deal was a disaster. |
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Post by AZTEC4LIFE1992 on Apr 2, 2024 8:48:28 GMT -8
I don't think OSU/Wazzu are going to spend the money to rebuild the PAC. I think they are going to take the easy road and reverse merge with the MWC. I would only be OK with that if the MWC kicks out at least 2 schools before the merger. It would have to be a newer member since the 6 remaining charter schools can not be kicked out. For me, the 2 schools would be Hawaii & Utah State. I like Hawaii but they are a football only member that hasn't brought much to football. I despise Utah State and they never should have been allowed into the conference. The new PAC-12 would have 4 pods of 3 schools each. You play the 2 other schools in your pod every year. PAC-12San Diego State Fresno State San Jose State Oregon State Washington State Boise State Nevada UNLV New Mexico Colorado State Air Force Wyoming No San Jose, Wyoming, Nevada or New Mexico. Keep the new PAC small and wait for Calford to come back when they realize the ACC deal was a disaster. This! Why would you spend money to buy out mountain west teams that are going to be a negative impact on cash flow. They need to get to eight teams to satisfy the requirement and hopefully pick up Cal and Stanford, SMU and UT San Antonio are Tulane. |
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