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Post by aztecmusician on Apr 2, 2024 14:10:13 GMT -8
He's pulling votes from both Trump and Biden, which is why he has a legitimate chance of winning. Back here on Earth, no, he's not taking votes from Trump. He has zero shot at winning. Zero. He's not on the Trump scale, but he's a danger in his own way. Right now the electoral map is slightly favoring Trump. Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona are probably going to determine the next presidential election and Trump has slender to comfortable leads in all of them. Florida, Texas are now leaning Trump as most of the Mid West and Southern states are Trump territory. Biden has strong support in the Northeast and West Coast. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 14:24:25 GMT -8
Back here on Earth, no, he's not taking votes from Trump. He has zero shot at winning. Zero. He's not on the Trump scale, but he's a danger in his own way. Biden is dangerous in his own way. Voting for Biden is voting for Zionism. Voting for Biden is voting for a geriatric with significant cognitive issues. "Zionism".....That's cute. Voting for Kennedy is voting for a dangerous quack who believes vaccines cause autism and that COVID waa a genetic experiment to benefit Jews. He's a nut job. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 14:25:31 GMT -8
Back here on Earth, no, he's not taking votes from Trump. He has zero shot at winning. Zero. He's not on the Trump scale, but he's a danger in his own way. Right now the electoral map is slightly favoring Trump. Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona are probably going to determine the next presidential election and Trump has slender to comfortable leads in all of them. Florida, Texas are now leaning Trump as most of the Mid West and Southern states are Trump territory. Biden has strong support in the Northeast and West Coast. Polls are meaningless in April. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Apr 2, 2024 15:00:39 GMT -8
Right now the electoral map is slightly favoring Trump. Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona are probably going to determine the next presidential election and Trump has slender to comfortable leads in all of them. Florida, Texas are now leaning Trump as most of the Mid West and Southern states are Trump territory. Biden has strong support in the Northeast and West Coast. Polls are meaningless in April. If your candidate was winning you would have a different perspective. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 15:05:02 GMT -8
Polls are meaningless in April. If your candidate was winning you would have a different perspective. No, I wouldn't. I actually pay attention and remember history. It'd be equally meaningless if Biden was up 2% at this point. Nothing of consequence has happened yet. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 15:19:34 GMT -8
Polls are meaningless in April. If your candidate was winning you would have a different perspective. Here's what the polls looked like on April 1st of 2016: Clinton +12 (+7 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) Clinton +7 (+4 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) It doesn't mean anything yet. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Apr 2, 2024 16:50:32 GMT -8
If your candidate was winning you would have a different perspective. Here's what the polls looked like on April 1st of 2016: Clinton +12 (+7 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) Clinton +7 (+4 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) It doesn't mean anything yet. According to you. I’m certain all candidates and their political operatives take these numbers seriously. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 17:02:59 GMT -8
Here's what the polls looked like on April 1st of 2016: Clinton +12 (+7 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) Clinton +7 (+4 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) It doesn't mean anything yet. According to you. I’m certain all candidates and their political operatives take these numbers seriously. This may shock you, but each party has their own internal polling metrics that they care far more about than a random sampling of 1,100 voters in an April YouGov or Harris poll. This is basic stuff. The video you posted made me laugh - "Biden's not even polling at 40%" with Trump polling at a whopping 42% against the weakest incumbent in decades. It's noise. The polls will shift, shift more and then shift again prior to November. We are nowhere close to determining a winner in April. Polls don't vote. |
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 2, 2024 17:07:53 GMT -8
If your candidate was winning you would have a different perspective. Here's what the polls looked like on April 1st of 2016: Clinton +12 (+7 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) Clinton +7 (+4 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) It doesn't mean anything yet. I think part of why the polls were so off at that time, was due to the fact that nobody could really get a good gage on how many supporters Trump actually had. There were so many voters that were tired of "politicians" running the country and they were looking for somebody outside of that. Those people were not in the polls. Now, they have a good idea of the supporters Trump has, so maybe these polls are trending more accurate at this time. It's not as much of an unknown with Trump now. But yeah, things can change on a dime, but I don't by how much. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 17:14:50 GMT -8
Here's what the polls looked like on April 1st of 2016: Clinton +12 (+7 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) Clinton +7 (+4 adjusted) Clinton +6 (+3 adjusted) It doesn't mean anything yet. I think part of why the polls were so off at that time, was due to the fact that nobody could really get a good gage on how many supporters Trump actually had. There were so many voters that were tired of "politicians" running the country and they were looking for somebody outside of that. Those people were not in the polls. Now, they have a good idea of the supporters Trump has, so maybe these polls are trending more accurate at this time. It's not as much of an unknown with Trump now. But yeah, things can change on a dime, but I don't by how much. Polls don't capture votes, they capture public sentiment, whatever a person is willing to share, and they are non-binding. Exit polling from the contested primaries illustrates Trump is overpolled, not underpolled. |
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 2, 2024 17:22:46 GMT -8
I think part of why the polls were so off at that time, was due to the fact that nobody could really get a good gage on how many supporters Trump actually had. There were so many voters that were tired of "politicians" running the country and they were looking for somebody outside of that. Those people were not in the polls. Now, they have a good idea of the supporters Trump has, so maybe these polls are trending more accurate at this time. It's not as much of an unknown with Trump now. But yeah, things can change on a dime, but I don't by how much. Polls don't capture votes, they capture public sentiment, whatever a person is willing to share, and they are non-binding. Exit polling from the contested primaries illustrates Trump is overpolled, not underpolled. I'm just saying that there were not many people willing to admit that they were voting for Trump, so they wouldn't participate in a poll, anonymous or not. There were/are a lot of closet Trump fans. It's hard to gage, but better idea of it now. I don't really listen to polls. I'll look more at the betting odds closer to the election. The witches and warlocks have a better idea how to gage Trump this go around. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 17:35:42 GMT -8
Polls don't capture votes, they capture public sentiment, whatever a person is willing to share, and they are non-binding. Exit polling from the contested primaries illustrates Trump is overpolled, not underpolled. I'm just saying that there were not many people willing to admit that they were voting for Trump, so they wouldn't participate in a poll, anonymous or not. There were/are a lot of closet Trump fans. It's hard to gage, but better idea of it now. I don't really listen to polls. I'll look more at the betting odds closer to the election. The witches and warlocks have a better idea how to gage Trump this go around. The odds told you one day before the election Trump was a massive favorite and then flipped on election day. With no US sportsbooks able to post election odds, you're not getting the complete picture there, either. |
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 2, 2024 17:50:38 GMT -8
I'm just saying that there were not many people willing to admit that they were voting for Trump, so they wouldn't participate in a poll, anonymous or not. There were/are a lot of closet Trump fans. It's hard to gage, but better idea of it now. I don't really listen to polls. I'll look more at the betting odds closer to the election. The witches and warlocks have a better idea how to gage Trump this go around. The odds told you one day before the election Trump was a massive favorite and then flipped on election day. With no US sportsbooks able to post election odds, you're not getting the complete picture there, either. I'm wondering if this go around will be different since Trump was such an outlier last time. They may have better analysis this go around. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 17:55:11 GMT -8
The odds told you one day before the election Trump was a massive favorite and then flipped on election day. With no US sportsbooks able to post election odds, you're not getting the complete picture there, either. I'm wondering if this go around will be different since Trump was such an outlier last time. They may have better analysis this go around. Trump was nowhere near an outlier in 2020. |
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 2, 2024 18:03:13 GMT -8
I'm wondering if this go around will be different since Trump was such an outlier last time. They may have better analysis this go around. Trump was nowhere near an outlier in 2020. That's true. I was thinking more about 2016, since that's what you brought up. |
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 2, 2024 18:07:23 GMT -8
I'm wondering if this go around will be different since Trump was such an outlier last time. They may have better analysis this go around. Trump was nowhere near an outlier in 2020. You brought up 2016 and Hillary, so I was referring to that. Biden led in the polls right before the election in 2020, correct? |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 18:18:33 GMT -8
Trump was nowhere near an outlier in 2020. You brought up 2016 and Hillary, so I was referring to that. Biden led in the polls right before the election in 2020, correct? Yes. Much different than in 2016. |
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 2, 2024 18:21:52 GMT -8
You brought up 2016 and Hillary, so I was referring to that. Biden led in the polls right before the election in 2020, correct? Yes. Much different than in 2016. Yes, and I think it's because Trump wasn't such an outlier in 2020. The same for this year. The polls and more importantly to me, the odds, should be very close to what the outcome will be. Of course, there's the "you never know" aspect to it. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Apr 2, 2024 20:58:44 GMT -8
According to you. I’m certain all candidates and their political operatives take these numbers seriously. This may shock you, but each party has their own internal polling metrics that they care far more about than a random sampling of 1,100 voters in an April YouGov or Harris poll. This is basic stuff. The video you posted made me laugh - "Biden's not even polling at 40%" with Trump polling at a whopping 42% against the weakest incumbent in decades. It's noise. The polls will shift, shift more and then shift again prior to November. We are nowhere close to determining a winner in April. Polls don't vote. Yes, polls don’t vote. However, polls help choose the issues the candidates will campaign upon. Polls in April are not “meaningless.” Quite the opposite. If they were unimportant Biden wouldn’t be yelling at his campaign personnel to pick up the pace. Agreed, the video had a bit of a GOP lean, but they weren’t fudging the numbers and the battleground states are trending for Trump even with the mud launching and dirty tricks from the Democrats. |
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 2, 2024 21:12:49 GMT -8
This may shock you, but each party has their own internal polling metrics that they care far more about than a random sampling of 1,100 voters in an April YouGov or Harris poll. This is basic stuff. The video you posted made me laugh - "Biden's not even polling at 40%" with Trump polling at a whopping 42% against the weakest incumbent in decades. It's noise. The polls will shift, shift more and then shift again prior to November. We are nowhere close to determining a winner in April. Polls don't vote. Yes, polls don’t vote. However, polls help choose the issues the candidates will campaign upon. Polls in April are not “meaningless.” Quite the opposite. If they were unimportant Biden wouldn’t be yelling at his campaign personnel to pick up the pace. Agreed, the video had a bit of a GOP lean, but they weren’t fudging the numbers and the battleground states are trending for Trump even with the mud launching and dirty tricks from the Democrats. Dirty tricks - Upholding the law. Be real: If the names were removed or reversed, you'd want Biden prosecuted for the same conduct. You already do, even when there's been no proof of illegality. It's a pretty unserious perspective. |
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