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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 16:15:02 GMT -8
It was going to be tough to get this win today against Sale. He's great and the kryptonite, a lefty.
Hopefully, we can come back from the All Star Break and go on a winning streak, although with the Guardians and the Orioles up next on the road, it could be tough.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 14, 2024 17:10:31 GMT -8
Of course it isn't the objective. But you still have a chance to win if you get in as a wild card. Or, is that just another cliche? Look at the historical data. You tell me. There are plenty of teams that were around .500 at the trade deadline, that finished with 90-95 win seasons. There are plenty of examples of the opposite as well (SDP 2021). The season isn't over. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 17:18:29 GMT -8
Look at the historical data. You tell me. There are plenty of teams that were around .500 at the trade deadline, that finished with 90-95 win seasons. There are plenty of examples of the opposite as well (SDP 2021). The season isn't over. That's right. To say that the Padres are absolutely not going to win 90 games as if you have a Crystal Ball, and then pull the plug on the season only because you doubt they will, is absolutely ludicrous. I guess some people like to give up, instead of being competitive when you're still in the hunt. I don't want ownership like that. It takes more than where we're at right now in the standings to have me think about pulling the plug. Sheesh. Let's see where we're at right before the trade deadline, not today. Sheesh, again. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 14, 2024 17:24:09 GMT -8
Look at the historical data. You tell me. There are plenty of teams that were around .500 at the trade deadline, that finished with 90-95 win seasons. There are plenty of examples of the opposite as well (SDP 2021). The season isn't over. Were those teams missing two starting pitchers, an MVP candidate in right field and surrounded by a banged up offense? We can't just ignore obvious variables because of whatever this is. Realism is a thing. We have a multi-year sample size of them being a .500 team. They could easily make the playoffs, sure. The NL is trash....but that's not the objective. |
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 14, 2024 18:42:43 GMT -8
There are plenty of teams that were around .500 at the trade deadline, that finished with 90-95 win seasons. There are plenty of examples of the opposite as well (SDP 2021). The season isn't over. Were those teams missing two starting pitchers, an MVP candidate in right field and surrounded by a banged up offense? We can't just ignore obvious variables because of whatever this is. Realism is a thing. We have a multi-year sample size of them being a .500 team. They could easily make the playoffs, sure. The NL is trash....but that's not the objective. If they: a. Easily make the playoffs because the NL is trash. b. Get Fernando, Musgrove and Darvish back by the playoffs. then c. don't they have a chance to win it all? |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 18:45:54 GMT -8
Getting into the playoffs is the first step, obviously. If you're hot at that time and healthy, and all the pieces are there, anything can happen.
If the Padres are in the thick of it near the deadline and you have good word on Tatis, Musgrove and possibly Darvish, then you play it out. By the end of July, or before the deadline, they may have a better idea on timelines, especially Tatis.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 14, 2024 18:46:14 GMT -8
Were those teams missing two starting pitchers, an MVP candidate in right field and surrounded by a banged up offense? We can't just ignore obvious variables because of whatever this is. Realism is a thing. We have a multi-year sample size of them being a .500 team. They could easily make the playoffs, sure. The NL is trash....but that's not the objective. If they: a. Easily make the playoffs because the NL is trash. b. Get Fernando, Musgrove and Darvish back by the playoffs. then c. don't they have a chance to win it all? A chance? Of course. Everyone has a "chance." That means very little. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 18:48:09 GMT -8
Were those teams missing two starting pitchers, an MVP candidate in right field and surrounded by a banged up offense? We can't just ignore obvious variables because of whatever this is. Realism is a thing. We have a multi-year sample size of them being a .500 team. They could easily make the playoffs, sure. The NL is trash....but that's not the objective. If they: a. Easily make the playoffs because the NL is trash. b. Get Fernando, Musgrove and Darvish back by the playoffs. then c. don't they have a chance to win it all? Yeah, if the NL is trash then that means they have a good chance to get into the WS, and have a chance to win it all. They should have a better idea on timelines for those players before the trade deadline, if they don't already. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 14, 2024 18:49:14 GMT -8
Getting into the playoffs is the first step, obviously. If you're hot at that time and healthy, and all the pieces are there, anything can happen. If the Padres are in the thick of it near the deadline and you have good word on Tatis, Musgrove and possibly Darvish, then you play it out. By the end of July, or before the deadline, they may have a better idea on timelines, especially Tatis. Both Musgrove and Tatis could return sometime next month. Musgrove is just throwing a bullpen this week, fastballs only...He's not close to returning. The position at the deadline isn't going to massively change, unless they lose out or something bizarre. |
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Post by aardvark on Jul 14, 2024 19:19:50 GMT -8
If they: a. Easily make the playoffs because the NL is trash. b. Get Fernando, Musgrove and Darvish back by the playoffs. then c. don't they have a chance to win it all? Yeah, if the NL is trash then that means they have a good chance to get into the WS, and have a chance to win it all. They should have a better idea on timelines for those players before the trade deadline, if they don't already. If the Padres get in, and have to match up against the Phillies, I wouldn't expect it to end well for the Padres. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 20:18:01 GMT -8
Yeah, if the NL is trash then that means they have a good chance to get into the WS, and have a chance to win it all. They should have a better idea on timelines for those players before the trade deadline, if they don't already. If the Padres get in, and have to match up against the Phillies, I wouldn't expect it to end well for the Padres. Well, I was going off of Ryan's response that the NL is trash, but I wouldn't expect it as well, unless the Phillies play like they did against the A's when they lost recently 18-0, or something like that. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 20:19:28 GMT -8
Getting into the playoffs is the first step, obviously. If you're hot at that time and healthy, and all the pieces are there, anything can happen. If the Padres are in the thick of it near the deadline and you have good word on Tatis, Musgrove and possibly Darvish, then you play it out. By the end of July, or before the deadline, they may have a better idea on timelines, especially Tatis. Both Musgrove and Tatis could return sometime next month. Musgrove is just throwing a bullpen this week, fastballs only...He's not close to returning. The position at the deadline isn't going to massively change, unless they lose out or something bizarre. Yes, that's what I'm talking about, something bizarre like that, otherwise you go for it this season. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 14, 2024 20:26:26 GMT -8
Both Musgrove and Tatis could return sometime next month. Musgrove is just throwing a bullpen this week, fastballs only...He's not close to returning. The position at the deadline isn't going to massively change, unless they lose out or something bizarre. Yes, that's what I'm talking about, something bizarre like that, otherwise you go for it this season. There's no logic to that other than "fan." |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 20:30:52 GMT -8
Yes, that's what I'm talking about, something bizarre like that, otherwise you go for it this season. There's no logic to that other than "fan." You're so wrong. You want to desperately be right here, but it's not even close. There's variables involved of course, such as if they just completely tank, and know Tatis and Musgrove won't be coming back in time to help them. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 20:31:44 GMT -8
There's no logic to that other than "fan." You're so wrong. You want to desperately be right here, but it's not even close. And your logic is not in reality. There's variables involved of course, such as if they just completely tank, and know Tatis and Musgrove won't be coming back in time to help them. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 20:37:40 GMT -8
The Mets and Diamondbacks lost today as well. Helps take a little sting away. Pittsburgh won.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 14, 2024 20:41:32 GMT -8
There's no logic to that other than "fan." You're so wrong. You want to desperately be right here, but it's not even close. There's variables involved of course, such as if they just completely tank, and know Tatis and Musgrove won't be coming back in time to help them. As someone who actually follows the team reasonably closely....I mean, no. Even if Tatis, Musgrove and Darvish all come back in mid-August, you're still up against the luxury tax number with any reasonable additions. If Darvish doesn't come back, you free up more money, but you have to replace Darvish. King's innings limits are looming. Where's the offensive consistency going to come from? Arraez? Hurt. Bogaerts? Just coming back from a serious injury. Merrill? Starting to show some signs of the rookie wall. Profar? Still playing through injury. The NL isn't good, which is annoying, but this team is 50-49, injury-riddled and nowhere close to being a bonafide contender. Unfortunate. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 20:59:15 GMT -8
You're so wrong. You want to desperately be right here, but it's not even close. There's variables involved of course, such as if they just completely tank, and know Tatis and Musgrove won't be coming back in time to help them. As someone who actually follows the team reasonably closely....I mean, no. Even if Tatis, Musgrove and Darvish all come back in mid-August, you're still up against the luxury tax number with any reasonable additions. If Darvish doesn't come back, you free up more money, but you have to replace Darvish. King's innings limits are looming. Where's the offensive consistency going to come from? Arraez? Hurt. Bogaerts? Just coming back from a serious injury. Merrill? Starting to show some signs of the rookie wall. Profar? Still playing through injury. The NL isn't good, which is annoying, but this team is 50-49, injury-riddled and nowhere close to being a bonafide contender. Unfortunate. At this point in time I'd roll with Waldron, King, Cease and Vasquez and be confident that they can get it done. They're all showing that they're capable of having an outstanding outing. Add Musgrove in the mix and it gets better. I'm not even thinking about Darvish at this point. You may also be able to get away with a bullpen game with, Morejon, Estrada, Matsui, Kolek and Suarez. Only do that if necessary, but I wouldn't want to try it. Are you saying that that's what they are going to do because of the luxury tax? Or, is that just what you would do? |
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 14, 2024 21:02:35 GMT -8
You're so wrong. You want to desperately be right here, but it's not even close. There's variables involved of course, such as if they just completely tank, and know Tatis and Musgrove won't be coming back in time to help them. As someone who actually follows the team reasonably closely....I mean, no. Even if Tatis, Musgrove and Darvish all come back in mid-August, you're still up against the luxury tax number with any reasonable additions. If Darvish doesn't come back, you free up more money, but you have to replace Darvish. King's innings limits are looming. Where's the offensive consistency going to come from? Arraez? Hurt. Bogaerts? Just coming back from a serious injury. Merrill? Starting to show some signs of the rookie wall. Profar? Still playing through injury. The NL isn't good, which is annoying, but this team is 50-49, injury-riddled and nowhere close to being a bonafide contender. Unfortunate. Also, you did say that they'll have more time off in the second half due to scheduling and that should help injuries, etc.... |
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Post by aardvark on Jul 14, 2024 21:12:30 GMT -8
As someone who actually follows the team reasonably closely....I mean, no. Even if Tatis, Musgrove and Darvish all come back in mid-August, you're still up against the luxury tax number with any reasonable additions. If Darvish doesn't come back, you free up more money, but you have to replace Darvish. King's innings limits are looming. Where's the offensive consistency going to come from? Arraez? Hurt. Bogaerts? Just coming back from a serious injury. Merrill? Starting to show some signs of the rookie wall. Profar? Still playing through injury. The NL isn't good, which is annoying, but this team is 50-49, injury-riddled and nowhere close to being a bonafide contender. Unfortunate. Also, you did say that they'll have more time off in the second half due to scheduling and that should help injuries, etc.... I think the "days off" advantage ends around the 1st of August. |
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