|
|
Post by azteclou on Mar 18, 2023 21:42:11 GMT -8
Opening line ‘Bama -6 but projected to go to ‘Bama -7.5 Alabama vs San Diego State Odds, Opening Spread Alabama Odds -260 San Diego State Odds +220 Opening Spread Alabama -6 Our Expert’s Projected Spread Alabama -7.5 Over/Under 143.5 March Madness odds for Alabama vs San Diego State via bet365. The Alabama Crimson Tide and San Diego State Aztecs are on their way to the Sweet 16 in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Alabama opened as 6-point favorites over San Diego State in the Sweet 16. Our expert has projected the Alabama vs San Diego State odds and spread at Alabama -7.5 for this Sweet 16 March Madness matchup. The date, start time and channel for Alabama vs San Diego State in the Sweet 16 are still to be determined. www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/san-diego-state-alabama-maryland-odds-spread-start-time-channel-sweet-16 |
|
|
|
Post by RenoAztec on Mar 18, 2023 23:28:15 GMT -8
Is this the first time we have played Alabama in any sport?
|
|
|
|
Post by fisherville on Mar 18, 2023 23:55:40 GMT -8
Is this the first time we have played Alabama in any sport? Fun fact is that one time we had a agreement to play at bama in football in not too distant past |
|
|
|
Post by longtimebooster on Mar 19, 2023 5:05:53 GMT -8
Is this the first time we have played Alabama in any sport? SDSU has never played Alabama in either men's basketball or football. Not sure about baseball or water polo. The Aztecs turned down an offer to play in Tuscaloosa in 2013 in football. From a Nick Canepa column regarding the decision: San Diego State was offered the opportunity to play a football game at Alabama in 2013. It declined. Did it chicken out? Well, if it clucks like a chicken, walks like a chicken and lays eggs like a chicken, it’s not a mongoose. Turned it down flat. Another Aztecs mistake? Athletic Director Jim Sterk believes not, and he makes a case. But playing the Tide probably didn’t sit well with oddsmakers in the math department, which now oversees the football program. It’s hard to agree with him, but give Jim credit for the old college try and not crying fowl. To be big time, you must be more than you think you are, which is what the Aztecs want us to believe, when in fact they are not (at least in football). |
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Mar 19, 2023 8:18:58 GMT -8
Given how Alabama is picked by some people to win it all, and given how they dominated Maryland, I'd put Alabama at -11.
We'll see how the odds go as we get closer to the game, but I don't think there will be a lot of action on SDSU at less than +9.
|
|
|
|
Post by azteclou on Mar 19, 2023 8:28:03 GMT -8
Current Lines
FanDuel Alabama -7.5. O/U 136.5 ML SDSU +240 Alabama -300
Caesars Alabama -7, 137, +250, -320
Points Bet Alabama -6.5, 137.5, +240, -300
|
|
|
|
Post by aztecking on Mar 19, 2023 8:30:35 GMT -8
Given how Alabama is picked by some people to win it all, and given how they dominated Maryland, I'd put Alabama at -11. We'll see how the odds go as we get closer to the game, but I don't think there will be a lot of action on SDSU at less than +9. That’s not how line setting works. They were -8.5 against Maryland and we are rated higher than Maryland, only makes sense that will should have shorter odds than Maryland. We are 7 points lower than Alabama in Kenpom’s adj efficiency. The team 7 points lower than us is Pitt, we wouldn’t be favored by 11 against Pitt. |
|
|
|
Post by sdmotohead on Mar 19, 2023 8:34:18 GMT -8
Well I wasn't nervous at all about the first two game. I am now.
|
|
|
|
Post by azteclou on Mar 19, 2023 8:36:55 GMT -8
Well I wasn't nervous at all about the first two game. I am now. No reason to be nervous here. Nobody except us on this fan forum believe we can win. All the pressure is on ‘Bama. The pressure on this team was to GET to the Sweet 16, there was little expectation to get much farther. But since we’re here, let’s win!! |
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Mar 19, 2023 10:02:33 GMT -8
Given how Alabama is picked by some people to win it all, and given how they dominated Maryland, I'd put Alabama at -11. We'll see how the odds go as we get closer to the game, but I don't think there will be a lot of action on SDSU at less than +9. That’s not how line setting works. They were -8.5 against Maryland and we are rated higher than Maryland, only makes sense that will should have shorter odds than Maryland. We are 7 points lower than Alabama in Kenpom’s adj efficiency. The team 7 points lower than us is Pitt, we wouldn’t be favored by 11 against Pitt. Line setting is based in part on the bets placed. If all the action is on Alabama, they'll increase the point spread. Sports books don't like to lose money. Right now if most of the money is bet on Alabama the sports books will lose a lot of money. They need to incentivize picking SDSU. And, no, I don't expect us to win this game. Can we win it? If we play a near perfect game, sure. But they are favored by many to win the Championship for a reason. They're one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the tournament. I'll be thrilled if we beat them. I just know that isn't the most likely outcome. |
|
|
|
Post by legkick on Mar 19, 2023 10:08:29 GMT -8
That’s not how line setting works. They were -8.5 against Maryland and we are rated higher than Maryland, only makes sense that will should have shorter odds than Maryland. We are 7 points lower than Alabama in Kenpom’s adj efficiency. The team 7 points lower than us is Pitt, we wouldn’t be favored by 11 against Pitt. Exactly. There is also no reason for the line to go from 6 to 11 or even from 7.5 to 11 - if it does, Vegas set the initial line very wrong (or there is another ominous event occurring). Vegas is way too sharp at this point in the season. Alabama +7.7-7.8 on kenpom; some services have initial line set at 7.5. Makes perfect sense. |
|
|
|
Post by aztecking on Mar 19, 2023 10:14:45 GMT -8
That’s not how line setting works. They were -8.5 against Maryland and we are rated higher than Maryland, only makes sense that will should have shorter odds than Maryland. We are 7 points lower than Alabama in Kenpom’s adj efficiency. The team 7 points lower than us is Pitt, we wouldn’t be favored by 11 against Pitt. Line setting is based in part on the bets placed. If all the action is on Alabama, they'll increase the point spread. Sports books don't like to lose money. Right now if most of the money is bet on Alabama the sports books will lose a lot of money. They need to incentivize picking SDSU. And, no, I don't expect us to win this game. Can we win it? If we play a near perfect game, sure. But they are favored by many to win the Championship for a reason. They're one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the tournament. I'll be thrilled if we beat them. I just know that isn't the most likely outcome. The opening line is typically set via predictive models and then the line moves from there based on the action. But the models typically do an excellent job at predicting outcomes and a ton of money is betting on tournament games so it’s rare to see a sweet 16 line move more than 1 point. |
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Mar 19, 2023 10:18:17 GMT -8
The games aren't played on a computer. They're played on a court. And unless we have a lot of common opponents the computer predictive model isn't something I would buy into.
Were we predicted to beat Furman by 23?
|
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Mar 19, 2023 10:21:18 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by aztecking on Mar 19, 2023 10:25:55 GMT -8
The games aren't played on a computer. They're played on a court. And unless we have a lot of common opponents the computer predictive model isn't something I would buy into. Were we predicted to beat Furman by 23? I’m just telling you why the line isn’t +11 or even +9 and is lower than the odds Alabama had against Maryland. |
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Mar 19, 2023 10:27:21 GMT -8
Given how Alabama is picked by some people to win it all, and given how they dominated Maryland, I'd put Alabama at -11. We'll see how the odds go as we get closer to the game, but I don't think there will be a lot of action on SDSU at less than +9. That's not how lines are created. |
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Mar 19, 2023 10:34:55 GMT -8
The games aren't played on a computer. They're played on a court. And unless we have a lot of common opponents the computer predictive model isn't something I would buy into. Were we predicted to beat Furman by 23? I’m just telling you why the line isn’t +11 or even +9 and is lower than the odds Alabama had against Maryland. And I'm telling you that MY line would be 11. I'm not a Vegas oddsmaker. I do know that they adjust their lines if the bets are too heavy on one team. I expect the current line to go up. How much? Who knows? But I expect the line to change making Alabama a bigger favorite to encourage bets on SDSU. |
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Mar 19, 2023 10:36:08 GMT -8
We were favored by double digits in so many MWC games that we ended up winning by single digits. And although we looked ok beating Charleston and dominating against Furman, I thought we'd be double digit underdogs to Alabama for sure.
I would have never thought the team that is favored to win the National Championship is only thought to be 7 or 8 points better than the Aztecs. But after watching how we played Saturday, not only do I think we can cover, I actually believe we can beat Alabama if we play close to that level.
I didn't expect that and it puts this team pretty damn far up the ladder in the Fisher-Dutcher era.
|
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Mar 19, 2023 10:37:58 GMT -8
I’m just telling you why the line isn’t +11 or even +9 and is lower than the odds Alabama had against Maryland. And I'm telling you that MY line would be 11. I'm not a Vegas oddsmaker. I do know that they adjust their lines if the bets are too heavy on one team. I expect the current line to go up. How much? Who knows? But I expect the line to change making Alabama a bigger favorite to encourage bets on SDSU. I agree, I personally thought Alabama -7 was a good money bet unless you're an Aztec fan. Well, I guess it's a pretty good bet regardless of who you ultimately root for. |
|
|
|
Post by aztecnails on Mar 19, 2023 10:55:15 GMT -8
SDSU lost to Alabama in 4 sets 3-1 in women's volleyball in 2014. No meetings in baseball and softball. From the 1994-95 season in the Aztecs women's basketball media guide, the Aztecs women's basketball team did beat Alabama 79-76 in the St. John's Tournament in the only matchup between SDSU and Alabama.
|
|
