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Post by aztecryan on Mar 19, 2023 11:03:50 GMT -8
I’m just telling you why the line isn’t +11 or even +9 and is lower than the odds Alabama had against Maryland. And I'm telling you that MY line would be 11. I'm not a Vegas oddsmaker. I do know that they adjust their lines if the bets are too heavy on one team. I expect the current line to go up. How much? Who knows? But I expect the line to change making Alabama a bigger favorite to encourage bets on SDSU. The opening line on tournament games is just based on internal power ratings and algorithms. The books know they'll get action on both sides in what is the second most publicly bet event of the year, regardless of where the opener is. They don't care about sharp or square action, they just set a number and let the masses drive it one way or another. They also don't encourage bets on any team. On a neutral floor, 6.5 or 7 is probably about right. The public money won't come in until much later in the week. |
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Post by laaztec on Mar 19, 2023 11:08:23 GMT -8
I know nobody expects SDSU to beat Alabama but a 5 seed beating a 1 seed is a definite possibility and not a crazy thing if it happens.
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Post by Boise Aztec on Mar 19, 2023 11:28:22 GMT -8
This kind of matchup happens all the time in conference tournaments and the lower seeded team wins many times…
State does not have to play a perfect game to beat Alabama… State wins 3.5 out of 10 games against Bama
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Post by aztech on Mar 19, 2023 11:31:57 GMT -8
This kind of matchup happens all the time in conference tournaments and the lower seeded team wins many times… State does not have to play a perfect game to beat Alabama… State wins 3.5 out of 10 games against Bama Let's see where the line ends up on Wednesday. |
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Post by johneaztec on Mar 19, 2023 12:23:05 GMT -8
I'm hoping they over look us. Thinking we're just some Mid-Major team that didn't play anybody to get to the Sweet Sixteen. If so, they're going to get hit in the mouth, with a lot of crying.
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Post by aztech on Mar 19, 2023 12:43:19 GMT -8
I'm hoping they over look us. Thinking we're just some Mid-Major team that didn't play anybody to get to the Sweet Sixteen. If so, they're going to get hit in the mouth, with a lot of crying. The way I see it is there'll always be one network pundit giving us positive vibes, only because he/she has to. Why? Because if they all say they're going with Alabama then many viewers will just change the channel and watch something else. |
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Post by johneaztec on Mar 19, 2023 12:45:21 GMT -8
I'm hoping they over look us. Thinking we're just some Mid-Major team that didn't play anybody to get to the Sweet Sixteen. If so, they're going to get hit in the mouth, with a lot of crying. The way I see it is there'll always be one network pundit giving us positive vibes, only because he/she has to. Why? Because if they all say they're going with Alabama then many viewers will just change the channel and watch something else. Yes, I've noticed that. There's always one contrarian. Either for the sake of being different, or they really believe it. I'm thinking nobody gives us a chance. So be it. |
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Post by aztecking on Mar 19, 2023 14:06:45 GMT -8
I'm hoping they over look us. Thinking we're just some Mid-Major team that didn't play anybody to get to the Sweet Sixteen. If so, they're going to get hit in the mouth, with a lot of crying. The way I see it is there'll always be one network pundit giving us positive vibes, only because he/she has to. Why? Because if they all say they're going with Alabama then many viewers will just change the channel and watch something else. If I had to guess who I’d say Charles Barkley. He had a lot of positive things to say about us yesterday and he went to Auburn so no love lost with Alabama. |
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Post by jcljorgenson on Mar 19, 2023 14:13:48 GMT -8
The way I see it is there'll always be one network pundit giving us positive vibes, only because he/she has to. Why? Because if they all say they're going with Alabama then many viewers will just change the channel and watch something else. If I had to guess who I’d say Charles Barkley. He had a lot of positive things to say about us yesterday and he went to Auburn so no love lost with Alabama. I love how Barkley says SDSU is full of grown men playing against boys. He respects our defense and is a huge Kawhi Leonard fan. In fact, Barkley has said he thinks Kawhi is the best player in the world He did have us losing to Alabama in his bracket, but so did just about everyone else. |
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Post by lemkotir on Mar 19, 2023 14:29:02 GMT -8
It's all gravy from here. In terms of expectations at the start of the season, we have achieved: - Win MWC championship
- Win MWC tournament championship
- Win March Madness games (2 or more)
In my mind, maybe like many others here, anything from here on out is just bonus or cheery on the top. Of course, I'm "greedy", I want them to win 1/2/3/4 more games; however, if they fail to win next week, I am content with this season.
So going into the Alabama game, I cannot be disappointed.
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Post by ourtime on Mar 19, 2023 16:17:14 GMT -8
It's all gravy from here. In terms of expectations at the start of the season, we have achieved: - Win MWC championship
- Win MWC tournament championship
- Win March Madness games (2 or more)
In my mind, maybe like many others here, anything from here on out is just bonus or cheery on the top. Of course, I'm "greedy", I want them to win 1/2/3/4 more games; however, if they fail to win next week, I am content with this season.
So going into the Alabama game, I cannot be disappointed.
This is exactly where I'm at. I was nervous last Thurs/Sat because of the opponents, the Sweet 16 was there for the taking. I will have no such nerves on Friday also because of the opponent. Alabama is maybe/probably the best team in the country, the Aztecs will have to play their best game of the year and likely need some help to win. |
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Mar 19, 2023 16:39:45 GMT -8
Let's go AZTECS take out Alabummer!
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Post by Old School on Mar 19, 2023 17:43:49 GMT -8
I'd be glad to spoil Bama's party. Gigantic opportunity for SDSU's program, win or lose. We would still gain respect by keeping it close and competitive.
Lots of eyes will be watching this game, being on the same court is already huge.
Oldie Out
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Post by aztecryan on Mar 22, 2023 9:51:19 GMT -8
Line got to 8, sharps bought it back to 7.5.
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Post by aztech on Mar 22, 2023 11:13:19 GMT -8
Line got to 8, sharps bought it back to 7.5. If it goes back down to between +6.5 or +7.0 tomorrow, then something's up. If Miller has to sit that would do it. |
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Post by aztecryan on Mar 22, 2023 11:20:32 GMT -8
Line got to 8, sharps bought it back to 7.5. If it goes back down to between +6.5 or +7.0 tomorrow, then something's up. If Miller has to sit that would do it. Not really sure a half point really moves the needle. Likely two-way action until the public gets involved Friday. |
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Post by gigglyforshrigley on Mar 22, 2023 11:37:41 GMT -8
If Miller had to sit for the game I would think it'd move a lot more than 1 point
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Post by docmm on Mar 22, 2023 11:42:31 GMT -8
Why do you think anyone is going to make him sit? This is Alabama we're talking about.
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Post by azson on Mar 22, 2023 11:50:23 GMT -8
I know nobody expects SDSU to beat Alabama but a 5 seed beating a 1 seed is a definite possibility and not a crazy thing if it happens. I LOVE that we're the magic 5 seed. We were the 5 seed when it was us against the Wyoming world (they were the heavily favored 1 seed) in '02 and WYO-fan sold out the entire T&M. Let's do it again!  |
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Post by aztecking on Mar 22, 2023 12:00:26 GMT -8
If Miller had to sit for the game I would think it'd move a lot more than 1 point A player of his caliber would move the line about 2-3 points. If he sits I think it would go down to +4 to +5. |
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