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Post by aztecryan on Sept 2, 2022 22:05:10 GMT -8
The newly minted #1 prospect in the Padres farm system, an under-the-radar pick in last year's draft, is hitting .341 with an OPS of .901 as a teenager in the California League. Had a friend of mine pass along word from an anonymous AL scout recently: "Merrill will be a top 50 guy next year. AJ is just better at this than everyone else."
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2022 9:59:55 GMT -8
No, he isn’t. When they start playing well in the major leagues (the goal), either with SD, or their trade destinations ——then let’s talk. Let’s take a look back at their 2019 top prospects: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/san-diego-padres-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/?amphtmlWe will see about Gore, Campusano, and Abrams. The international signing classes have underwhelmed. Building a farm system ranked high is one thing. DEVELOPING major league talent is another. Here…..is where we fall far, far short of LAD.
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Post by johneaztec on Sept 4, 2022 14:33:59 GMT -8
No, he isn’t. When they start playing well in the major leagues (the goal), either with SD, or their trade destinations ——then let’s talk. Let’s take a look back at their 2019 top prospects: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/san-diego-padres-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/?amphtmlWe will see about Gore, Campusano, and Abrams. The international signing classes have underwhelmed. Building a farm system ranked high is one thing. DEVELOPING major league talent is another. Here…..is where we fall far, far short of LAD. Yeah, I've been more impressed with Preller in the trade/free agent signing department.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 4, 2022 18:48:02 GMT -8
No, he isn’t. When they start playing well in the major leagues (the goal), either with SD, or their trade destinations ——then let’s talk. Let’s take a look back at their 2019 top prospects: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/san-diego-padres-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/?amphtmlWe will see about Gore, Campusano, and Abrams. The international signing classes have underwhelmed. Building a farm system ranked high is one thing. DEVELOPING major league talent is another. Here…..is where we fall far, far short of LAD. "Better at this" means drafting and identifying talent on the amateur level, even when industry consensus doesn't agree with internal evaluations. Merrill and Wood are prime examples in recent memory. Don't really care about Baseball America's 2019 list, personally.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2022 6:16:39 GMT -8
No, he isn’t. When they start playing well in the major leagues (the goal), either with SD, or their trade destinations ——then let’s talk. Let’s take a look back at their 2019 top prospects: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/san-diego-padres-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/?amphtmlWe will see about Gore, Campusano, and Abrams. The international signing classes have underwhelmed. Building a farm system ranked high is one thing. DEVELOPING major league talent is another. Here…..is where we fall far, far short of LAD. "Better at this" means drafting and identifying talent on the amateur level, even when industry consensus doesn't agree with internal evaluations. Merrill and Wood are prime examples in recent memory. Don't really care about Baseball America's 2019 list, personally. Because it doesn’t support your narrative. I get it. You want so badly for Preller to be that guy who can build a world champion club. I hope you end up proven right. I truly do. If I am Seidler, I still offer Theo a cash haul and make him say no.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 6, 2022 6:50:48 GMT -8
"Better at this" means drafting and identifying talent on the amateur level, even when industry consensus doesn't agree with internal evaluations. Merrill and Wood are prime examples in recent memory. Don't really care about Baseball America's 2019 list, personally. Because it doesn’t support your narrative. I get it. You want so badly for Preller to be that guy who can build a world champion club. I hope you end up proven right. I truly do. If I am Seidler, I still offer Theo a cash haul and make him say no. I don't have a narrative. The Padres have always preferred to trade younger, valuable assets for more established veteran players. They treat prospects like commodities because therr is more than one way to build a roster successfully. Theo Epstein isn't the answer.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2022 16:26:03 GMT -8
All good. I should have clarified my remarks better.
You and I have different opinions of AJ’s “greatness”. What is not debatable is, barring a deep playoff run he’s yet to have —-Preller will very much be on a warm seat going into ‘23.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 7, 2022 18:14:22 GMT -8
All good. I should have clarified my remarks better. You and I have different opinions of AJ’s “greatness”. What is not debatable is, barring a deep playoff run he’s yet to have —-Preller will very much be on a warm seat going into ‘23. I didn't say AJ was great, but I believe in him (and more importantly the guys in scouting/international drafting) quite a lot. Obviously, the wins and titles haven't translated, but it's not for a lack of effort on his part or ownership's part, which is a far cry from where this team was under Moorad and other regimes. I'm not sure his seat is warm, barring an absolute collapse. He did his job this season, in my opinion.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2022 18:42:23 GMT -8
All good. I should have clarified my remarks better. You and I have different opinions of AJ’s “greatness”. What is not debatable is, barring a deep playoff run he’s yet to have —-Preller will very much be on a warm seat going into ‘23. I didn't say AJ was great, but I believe in him (and more importantly the guys in scouting/international drafting) quite a lot. Obviously, the wins and titles haven't translated, but it's not for a lack of effort on his part or ownership's part, which is a far cry from where this team was under Moorad and other regimes. I'm not sure his seat is warm, barring an absolute collapse. He did his job this season, in my opinion. K. Question. Do many GMs get a ninth year on their fourth manager, with a top 25% payroll, and no playoff series wins?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2022 18:42:56 GMT -8
And I DO agree —-this season, he did.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 7, 2022 19:36:11 GMT -8
I didn't say AJ was great, but I believe in him (and more importantly the guys in scouting/international drafting) quite a lot. Obviously, the wins and titles haven't translated, but it's not for a lack of effort on his part or ownership's part, which is a far cry from where this team was under Moorad and other regimes. I'm not sure his seat is warm, barring an absolute collapse. He did his job this season, in my opinion. K. Question. Do many GMs get a ninth year on their fourth manager, with a top 25% payroll, and no playoff series wins? They beat the Cardinals in a playoff series. I think you have to look at everything in a post-2016 vacuum. The failed push to bring in Norris, Upton, Kemp, etc was generated by forces outside of Preller, which set the franchise back multiple seasons. The rebuild from that (which isn't an overnight process) was extensive. They didn't suddenly run $200M payrolls out of thin air, the build up to that was also significantly time consuming. If you had told any (sane) fan that this team would be in playoff contention this season without a single at-bat from Fernando Tatis Jr....I think they would have said that you're crazy. Don't get me wrong. If the playoffs don't come to fruition, I think serious questions need to be asked. But I still think the roster makeup for next season looks promising if Fernando can get his life together and commit to the team. A core of Machado, Tatis and Soto is the best trio in baseball.
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Post by azson on Sept 8, 2022 8:32:13 GMT -8
I didn't say AJ was great, but I believe in him (and more importantly the guys in scouting/international drafting) quite a lot. Obviously, the wins and titles haven't translated, but it's not for a lack of effort on his part or ownership's part, which is a far cry from where this team was under Moorad and other regimes. I'm not sure his seat is warm, barring an absolute collapse. He did his job this season, in my opinion. K. Question. Do many GMs get a ninth year on their fourth manager, with a top 25% payroll, and no playoff series wins?Uuuuh, did I dream the epic comeback vs. StL in 2020?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 16:50:35 GMT -8
K. Question. Do many GMs get a ninth year on their fourth manager, with a top 25% payroll, and no playoff series wins?Uuuuh, did I dream the epic comeback vs. StL in 2020? My mistake! 😂
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 11, 2022 9:44:36 GMT -8
To the surprise of...definitely not me, scouts and industry gurus are starting to pay attention to Merrill. He's moved into the FanGraphs Top 25 (after barely being in the top 100) and is generating rave reviews from Baseball America's staff after torching the Arizona Fall League early.
"Special player." "Impact guy." "The ball STAYS hit." "Possible Player of the Year."
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Post by sdsuball on Oct 12, 2022 18:38:10 GMT -8
Preller is an amazing scout.
There still are questions about the Padres organizational ability to develop prospects.
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 12, 2022 19:41:22 GMT -8
Preller is an amazing scout. There still are questions about the Padres organizational ability to develop prospects. Because they prefer to trade them.
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Post by docmm on Oct 12, 2022 21:44:59 GMT -8
No, he isn’t. When they start playing well in the major leagues (the goal), either with SD, or their trade destinations ——then let’s talk. Let’s take a look back at their 2019 top prospects: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/san-diego-padres-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/?amphtmlWe will see about Gore, Campusano, and Abrams. The international signing classes have underwhelmed. Building a farm system ranked high is one thing. DEVELOPING major league talent is another. Here…..is where we fall far, far short of LAD. You look at that list and see a couple serviceable MLB guys: France, Naylor, Wilson and maybe Urias. But not one stud out of all 30 guys so far.
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Post by aztecryan on Jan 18, 2023 8:57:49 GMT -8
Baseball America's #22 prospect.
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Post by sdsuball on Jan 18, 2023 12:36:18 GMT -8
No, he isn’t. When they start playing well in the major leagues (the goal), either with SD, or their trade destinations ——then let’s talk. Let’s take a look back at their 2019 top prospects: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/san-diego-padres-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/?amphtmlWe will see about Gore, Campusano, and Abrams. The international signing classes have underwhelmed. Building a farm system ranked high is one thing. DEVELOPING major league talent is another. Here…..is where we fall far, far short of LAD. You look at that list and see a couple serviceable MLB guys: France, Naylor, Wilson and maybe Urias. But not one stud out of all 30 guys so far. Gore will be an all star caliber pitcher. Abrams will be a veteran in the league with a long career.
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Post by docmm on Jan 18, 2023 13:55:35 GMT -8
You look at that list and see a couple serviceable MLB guys: France, Naylor, Wilson and maybe Urias. But not one stud out of all 30 guys so far. Gore will be an all star caliber pitcher. Abrams will be a veteran in the league with a long career. You may be right but you may also be wrong. If Gore (24 in February) can stay out of his own head and stays healthy, then maybe yes. But his head has some history already and his left elbow started barking already. He's pitched in pro baseball for 5 seasons (and also sat out an entire one during Co-Vid) but has only pitched more than 100 innings once. And he had bad enough elbow problems already that they shut him down for the season on this past July 25th after only 70 innings. He's got a lot of baggage. Hope he does OK, he always seemed like a good kid. Abrams is still young (22) but there are guys in MLB his age and younger who have done much more already than his combined .246 last year: He could be serviceable but not sure "a long career". Maybe but certainly not for sure. Atlanta, Michael Harris (21) Vaughn Grissom (21) Seattle Julio Rodriguez (22) Kansas City Bobby Witt Jr (22) etc. etc.
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