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Post by aztecryan on Jul 30, 2022 21:46:28 GMT -8
3.3 WAR, .876 OPS and on pace for 40 home runs and 100 RBI. Please tell me you’re joking. BA? LOL His stats are not worth giving up the farm to get him. He's WAY down from the previous two years. It seems like you and everyone else is caught up in those two great years he had, but they may have been the absolute peak of his career. Oh, and batting average is still the most basic and most important stat there is. You can't score runs if you can't get on base, and you're not going to drive in a ton of runs with a .240 average. Downplaying one of the most basic, fundamental stats in baseball is foolish. Is it worth giving up the future to get him? Will he alone make the difference that brings a World Series title to San Diego? (Will adding him give the Padres a better than 50/50 chance of winning the World Series as opposed to any other player they have or could get?) If not, he's not worth the price. If the Padres give up a ton to get him this team is going to SUCK in 3 or 4 years. They're going to need that farm system to provide replacements for Machado and Tatis, as well as filling all the holes on this roster. A) Batting average without BABIP context is meaningless, not important in the slightest. His OBP is .400, on the strength of a 20% walk rate. He gets on base at an elite clip. B) He has a 146 wRC+, which means he's 46% above league average in creating runs. Saying his numbers are way down is false, his BABIP is down 90 points from last season. Next you're going to tell me Eric Hosmer is better because he's hitting .270. Stop. C) You don't peak at 23. Soto is in the top ten EVER for career OPS+ through 2,000 plate appearances. He's a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer on this trajectory. D) An established superstar is absolutely worth selling the farm. What are you hoping for, for the farm guys to be...Juan Soto? Why not just get the actual Juan Soto instead? E) That's not entirely true. AJ Preller has shown an uncanny ability to reload the farm in multiple seasons. This front office excels at scouting and talent identification. They drafted two guys LAST YEAR who are already consensus top 100 prospects, including Jackson Merrill, who most thought was a reach. F) There is no replacing Tatis in a couple years...he's under contract through 2034. Machado is here until 2027. Your window? It's now.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 30, 2022 21:47:21 GMT -8
His stats are not worth giving up the farm to get him. He's WAY down from the previous two years. It seems like you and everyone else is caught up in those two great years he had, but they may have been the absolute peak of his career. Oh, and batting average is still the most basic and most important stat there is. You can't score runs if you can't get on base, and you're not going to drive in a ton of runs with a .240 average. Downplaying one of the most basic, fundamental stats in baseball is foolish. Is it worth giving up the future to get him? Will he alone make the difference that brings a World Series title to San Diego? (Will adding him give the Padres a better than 50/50 chance of winning the World Series as opposed to any other player they have or could get?) If not, he's not worth the price. If the Padres give up a ton to get him this team is going to SUCK in 3 or 4 years. They're going to need that farm system to provide replacements for Machado and Tatis, as well as filling all the holes on this roster. exactly why teams are looking at Ohtani.. who IMO is a much better choice. I would give whatever it takes for Ohtani. Petco preventing you from hitting? Well dude can still pitch at an elite level. He isn't going anywhere.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 30, 2022 22:57:54 GMT -8
His stats are not worth giving up the farm to get him. He's WAY down from the previous two years. It seems like you and everyone else is caught up in those two great years he had, but they may have been the absolute peak of his career. Oh, and batting average is still the most basic and most important stat there is. You can't score runs if you can't get on base, and you're not going to drive in a ton of runs with a .240 average. Downplaying one of the most basic, fundamental stats in baseball is foolish. Is it worth giving up the future to get him? Will he alone make the difference that brings a World Series title to San Diego? (Will adding him give the Padres a better than 50/50 chance of winning the World Series as opposed to any other player they have or could get?) If not, he's not worth the price. If the Padres give up a ton to get him this team is going to SUCK in 3 or 4 years. They're going to need that farm system to provide replacements for Machado and Tatis, as well as filling all the holes on this roster. A) Batting average without BABIP context is meaningless, not important in the slightest. His OBP is .400, on the strength of a 20% walk rate. He gets on base at an elite clip. B) He has a 146 wRC+, which means he's 46% above league average in creating runs. Saying his numbers are way down is false, his BABIP is down 90 points from last season. Next you're going to tell me Eric Hosmer is better because he's hitting .270. Stop. C) You don't peak at 23. Soto is in the top ten EVER for career OPS+ through 2,000 plate appearances. He's a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer on this trajectory. D) An established superstar is absolutely worth selling the farm. What are you hoping for, for the farm guys to be...Juan Soto? Why not just get the actual Juan Soto instead? E) That's not entirely true. AJ Preller has shown an uncanny ability to reload the farm in multiple seasons. This front office excels at scouting and talent identification. They drafted two guys LAST YEAR who are already consensus top 100 prospects, including Jackson Merrill, who most thought was a reach. F) There is no replacing Tatis in a couple years...he's under contract through 2034. Machado is here until 2027. Your window? It's now. Do you really think that Tatis is going to be here in 5 years? This is San Diego. We can't seem to have good things here. We used to have 2 different NBA teams. We had an NFL team for 55+ years. Sure, we've had a MLB team for 50+ years, and they're a lock to stay, but they're all we've got. And in all that time we have ZERO major championships (don't give me the Chargers - in 1963 the AFL was the USFL of it's day, that league just got lucky that the NFL needed to expand). The Padres have kept exactly ONE great player long term in their entire history. And he just didn't want to leave San Diego and was willing to play for far less than he was worth. Tatis is no Tony Gwynn in that regard. I can't imagine that he'll be happy when he's the 37th highest paid player in 3 or 4 years. Something's going to get him out of town. That's just the way things work here. And the key guy we're looking to trade for Soto may be even better than him long term. He's got the potential and he's on track, developing nicely. We're not going to the World Series this year, with or without Soto. The Dodgers, Mets, and Braves are all better teams than the Padres, and one guy isn't going to change that. Preller needs to get MULTIPLE outfielders who can actually hit. Defense is nice, but if your outfielders are averaging .210 or so combined you've got a serious problem. Plus, this team desperately needs good relief pitchers. Until those issues are resolved, this team isn't a serious contender. Oh, most MLB players don't break in to the Majors at 20. So, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Soto has already peaked. You don't know how he's going to play next year or 3 years from now or 5 years from now. Right now, the trend is down. It's a short trend, sure, but the trend is down. And you don't know how he'll do in a large pitchers' ballpark with heavy, cool, moist air. A hit that would be a HR in some parks might not even make the warning track here. I just have a really bad feeling that if the Padres go all in for this guy it's going to bite them in the ass 3 or 4 years down the line. This team hasn't won a playoff game yet. Preller hasn't done squat to earn the kind of confidence you have in him. He's spent money, OK, yeah, he's done that. But when it comes to the one thing that matters - playoff wins - he's a total failure up to this point.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 6:39:35 GMT -8
A) Batting average without BABIP context is meaningless, not important in the slightest. His OBP is .400, on the strength of a 20% walk rate. He gets on base at an elite clip. B) He has a 146 wRC+, which means he's 46% above league average in creating runs. Saying his numbers are way down is false, his BABIP is down 90 points from last season. Next you're going to tell me Eric Hosmer is better because he's hitting .270. Stop. C) You don't peak at 23. Soto is in the top ten EVER for career OPS+ through 2,000 plate appearances. He's a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer on this trajectory. D) An established superstar is absolutely worth selling the farm. What are you hoping for, for the farm guys to be...Juan Soto? Why not just get the actual Juan Soto instead? E) That's not entirely true. AJ Preller has shown an uncanny ability to reload the farm in multiple seasons. This front office excels at scouting and talent identification. They drafted two guys LAST YEAR who are already consensus top 100 prospects, including Jackson Merrill, who most thought was a reach. F) There is no replacing Tatis in a couple years...he's under contract through 2034. Machado is here until 2027. Your window? It's now. Do you really think that Tatis is going to be here in 5 years? This is San Diego. We can't seem to have good things here. We used to have 2 different NBA teams. We had an NFL team for 55+ years. Sure, we've had a MLB team for 50+ years, and they're a lock to stay, but they're all we've got. And in all that time we have ZERO major championships (don't give me the Chargers - in 1963 the AFL was the USFL of it's day, that league just got lucky that the NFL needed to expand). The Padres have kept exactly ONE great player long term in their entire history. And he just didn't want to leave San Diego and was willing to play for far less than he was worth. Tatis is no Tony Gwynn in that regard. I can't imagine that he'll be happy when he's the 37th highest paid player in 3 or 4 years. Something's going to get him out of town. That's just the way things work here. And the key guy we're looking to trade for Soto may be even better than him long term. He's got the potential and he's on track, developing nicely. We're not going to the World Series this year, with or without Soto. The Dodgers, Mets, and Braves are all better teams than the Padres, and one guy isn't going to change that. Preller needs to get MULTIPLE outfielders who can actually hit. Defense is nice, but if your outfielders are averaging .210 or so combined you've got a serious problem. Plus, this team desperately needs good relief pitchers. Until those issues are resolved, this team isn't a serious contender. Oh, most MLB players don't break in to the Majors at 20. So, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Soto has already peaked. You don't know how he's going to play next year or 3 years from now or 5 years from now. Right now, the trend is down. It's a short trend, sure, but the trend is down. And you don't know how he'll do in a large pitchers' ballpark with heavy, cool, moist air. A hit that would be a HR in some parks might not even make the warning track here. I just have a really bad feeling that if the Padres go all in for this guy it's going to bite them in the ass 3 or 4 years down the line. This team hasn't won a playoff game yet. Preller hasn't done squat to earn the kind of confidence you have in him. He's spent money, OK, yeah, he's done that. But when it comes to the one thing that matters - playoff wins - he's a total failure up to this point. Irrelevant nonsense. Yes, I think Fernando is here for his contract duration. He's signed to a very team friendly deal and took WAY less than HE is worth to stay here. I don't care about NBA franchises in the 70's. Completely irrelevant and undeserving of any comparison. I have no idea who you are talking about in terms of "could be as good as Soto"....both guys are in A-ball. That's a far cry from being a World Series force and a batting champion at 21. What you're failing to realize is that it doesn't stop with Soto and it's not about this year. He's under control for two additional seasons. It is absolutely ridiculous if you study the long-term trends of players who break in to majors at Soto's age if you think he's peaked. (Again, guys don't peak in their early twenties) - Here's a list of guys at age 20 who have 400+ plate appearances since 1980: Mike Trout {Hall of Fame), Juan Soto, Alex Rodriguez (Should have been), Bryce Harper (Yep), Ken Griffey Jr. (Already in), Manny Machado (Future Hall of Famer)....you get the point. Juan Soto is the single most impactful move you can make. You're talking about a generational star. An outfield of Profar, Grisham and Soto is light years better than an outfield of Profar, Grisham, Ian Happ or anyone else. Soto is legitimately better in that scenario than the two guys you want to replace him with. Value. Luckily, they have these things called stats...so I can tell you exactly how many home runs Juan Soto would have playing his games at Petco (which isn't the pitcher's heaven it used to be).....Wait for it.....20. The same amount he has now in Washington. Oops. They won a playoff series in 2020. Try again. Preller hasn't done squat? He rebuilt the farm in two years. He traded James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. He signed Manny Machado. He traded for Joe Musgrove. He traded for Yu Darvish. He transformed a lifeless franchise and injected it with multiple future Hall of Fame players who will go into Cooperstown as Padres. I get that they haven't won. $#!+ happens. Everything about your doom and gloom scenarios lacks foundational reasoning or is just completely untrue. I get it, you're jaded or bitter or angry. Fine. But those emotions don't change the facts.
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Post by junior on Jul 31, 2022 6:50:01 GMT -8
If Soto goes into the dumpster, it won't be for 3-4 years and AJP will be long gone before then if a few other things don't start lining up pretty soon.
As far as an outfielders goes for now, slide Tatis, Jr. into CF, get Soto and play him in RF, and leave Profar in LF for now. Play Myers at first, making Hosmer truly expendable. Maybe he'll get the message quickly, and the Padres can dump his contract in December for a prospect or two.
Including Hasell in a trade is a big deal, and if they give him away, they need to not give away the rest of the farm. Add Abrams, Morejon and maybe Grisham and call it a trade. While both have great potential, they may not reach that for another few years. Abrams can't hit, and we all saw what can happen to Morejon yesterday. Grisham can't hit his own weight this season.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 6:53:09 GMT -8
If Soto goes into the dumpster, it won't be for 3-4 years and AJP will be long gone before then if a few other things don't start lining up pretty soon. As far as an outfielders goes for now, slide Tatis, Jr. into CF, get Soto and play him in RF, and leave Profar in LF for now. Play Myers at first, making Hosmer truly expendable. Maybe he'll get the message quickly, and the Padres can dump his contract in December for a prospect or two. Including Hasell in a trade is a big deal, and if they give him away, they need to not give away the rest of the farm. Add Abrams and Morejon and call it a trade. While both have great potential, they may not reach that for another few years. Abrams can't hit, and we all saw what can happen to Morejon yesterday. Hosmer gets full no trade protection after the World Series. The reason why he hasn't been moved up to this moment is every team wants Hassell included to absorb Hosmer's salary. He is worthless on the open market. Nobody is giving you a prospect, at all, without the team including a blue-chip asset to offset his contract. The Cubs, the Rangers, the Mets. All three of them declined. Saying Abrams can't hit after less than 50 games is silly.
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Post by azdick on Jul 31, 2022 6:58:41 GMT -8
I would gladly give up our “prospects” in exchange for a couple of WS appearances. Isn’t that the goal? I’m 78 and counting. I don’t have time to wait for the arrival of production from all that potential, e.g., Mackenzie Gore.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 7:44:16 GMT -8
I would gladly give up our “prospects” in exchange for a couple of WS appearances. Isn’t that the goal? I’m 78 and counting. I don’t have time to wait for the arrival of production from all that potential, e.g., Mackenzie Gore. We're not going to win the World Series. Not gonna happen. This is San Diego we're talking about. We don't get major league (NFL, NBA, MLB) Championships here. You should know that by now. We get teased, but the reality is none of these leagues want San Diego to win it all. We're not good for TV ratings. Am I overly cynical? Maybe. But it's based on 50+ years of history, so...
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 7:52:01 GMT -8
I would gladly give up our “prospects” in exchange for a couple of WS appearances. Isn’t that the goal? I’m 78 and counting. I don’t have time to wait for the arrival of production from all that potential, e.g., Mackenzie Gore. We're not going to win the World Series. Not gonna happen. This is San Diego we're talking about. We don't get major league (NFL, NBA, MLB) Championships here. You should know that by now. We get teased, but the reality is none of these leagues want San Diego to win it all. We're not good for TV ratings. Am I overly cynical? Maybe. But it's based on 50+ years of history, so... TV ratings don't determine who wins championships. Your takes get more irrational by the minute.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 7:53:27 GMT -8
Do you really think that Tatis is going to be here in 5 years? This is San Diego. We can't seem to have good things here. We used to have 2 different NBA teams. We had an NFL team for 55+ years. Sure, we've had a MLB team for 50+ years, and they're a lock to stay, but they're all we've got. And in all that time we have ZERO major championships (don't give me the Chargers - in 1963 the AFL was the USFL of it's day, that league just got lucky that the NFL needed to expand). The Padres have kept exactly ONE great player long term in their entire history. And he just didn't want to leave San Diego and was willing to play for far less than he was worth. Tatis is no Tony Gwynn in that regard. I can't imagine that he'll be happy when he's the 37th highest paid player in 3 or 4 years. Something's going to get him out of town. That's just the way things work here. And the key guy we're looking to trade for Soto may be even better than him long term. He's got the potential and he's on track, developing nicely. We're not going to the World Series this year, with or without Soto. The Dodgers, Mets, and Braves are all better teams than the Padres, and one guy isn't going to change that. Preller needs to get MULTIPLE outfielders who can actually hit. Defense is nice, but if your outfielders are averaging .210 or so combined you've got a serious problem. Plus, this team desperately needs good relief pitchers. Until those issues are resolved, this team isn't a serious contender. Oh, most MLB players don't break in to the Majors at 20. So, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Soto has already peaked. You don't know how he's going to play next year or 3 years from now or 5 years from now. Right now, the trend is down. It's a short trend, sure, but the trend is down. And you don't know how he'll do in a large pitchers' ballpark with heavy, cool, moist air. A hit that would be a HR in some parks might not even make the warning track here. I just have a really bad feeling that if the Padres go all in for this guy it's going to bite them in the ass 3 or 4 years down the line. This team hasn't won a playoff game yet. Preller hasn't done squat to earn the kind of confidence you have in him. He's spent money, OK, yeah, he's done that. But when it comes to the one thing that matters - playoff wins - he's a total failure up to this point. Irrelevant nonsense. Yes, I think Fernando is here for his contract duration. He's signed to a very team friendly deal and took WAY less than HE is worth to stay here. I don't care about NBA franchises in the 70's. Completely irrelevant and undeserving of any comparison. I have no idea who you are talking about in terms of "could be as good as Soto"....both guys are in A-ball. That's a far cry from being a World Series force and a batting champion at 21. What you're failing to realize is that it doesn't stop with Soto and it's not about this year. He's under control for two additional seasons. It is absolutely ridiculous if you study the long-term trends of players who break in to majors at Soto's age if you think he's peaked. (Again, guys don't peak in their early twenties) - Here's a list of guys at age 20 who have 400+ plate appearances since 1980: Mike Trout {Hall of Fame), Juan Soto, Alex Rodriguez (Should have been), Bryce Harper (Yep), Ken Griffey Jr. (Already in), Manny Machado (Future Hall of Famer)....you get the point. Juan Soto is the single most impactful move you can make. You're talking about a generational star. An outfield of Profar, Grisham and Soto is light years better than an outfield of Profar, Grisham, Ian Happ or anyone else. Soto is legitimately better in that scenario than the two guys you want to replace him with. Value. Luckily, they have these things called stats...so I can tell you exactly how many home runs Juan Soto would have playing his games at Petco (which isn't the pitcher's heaven it used to be).....Wait for it.....20. The same amount he has now in Washington. Oops. They won a playoff series in 2020. Try again. Preller hasn't done squat? He rebuilt the farm in two years. He traded James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. He signed Manny Machado. He traded for Joe Musgrove. He traded for Yu Darvish. He transformed a lifeless franchise and injected it with multiple future Hall of Fame players who will go into Cooperstown as Padres. I get that they haven't won. $#!+ happens. Everything about your doom and gloom scenarios lacks foundational reasoning or is just completely untrue. I get it, you're jaded or bitter or angry. Fine. But those emotions don't change the facts. OK, fair enough, we won a freaking WILD CARD series. 2 out of 3 games. I forgot about that as we got swept by the Dodgers right after that. Imagine that - swept by the Dodgers! Who could have seen that coming? And if you don't believe that it's even possible that Soto's already peaked, well, I guess you think his production this year matches the last two years. It doesn't. He's down significantly, but you cite all these new stats that agents came up with to increase the value of their players and tell me I'm wrong. You tell me it's impossible that he's peaked. You think he's a lock for the Hall of Fame. I've got news for you - if he continues to play like he's playing this year he is a lock for the Hall of Very Good at best. He's having a decent, but unspectacular season this year. If this is the new normal for him he is most certainly NOT worth trading Hassell and 3 other guys for. He'd have to come back to his production from 2020 and 2021 and maintain that for the next 8-10 years to be worth that price. He's not doing it this year. Have you even considered that the league has caught up with this guy and pitchers learned how to be more effective against him? That's happened literally hundreds of times in the last half century. Hot kid comes in, sets the world on fire, then a pitcher or two learns how to make him average, and everyone copies them. It happens. I'm not saying he's going to suddenly suck, just not be anywhere near a Hall of Famer. And not worth trading away the future of the Padres. This team still has major holes - and they aren't going after a relief pitcher? Sure, they don't need relievers, right? I mean, they didn't just give away yet another game late, right? There are several areas of need, and counting on one guy to turn this team into a World Series Champion is silly. He won't make that big of a difference. The team is 12 games back and isn't anywhere near as good as the Dodgers, Mets, or Braves.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 7:55:57 GMT -8
We're not going to win the World Series. Not gonna happen. This is San Diego we're talking about. We don't get major league (NFL, NBA, MLB) Championships here. You should know that by now. We get teased, but the reality is none of these leagues want San Diego to win it all. We're not good for TV ratings. Am I overly cynical? Maybe. But it's based on 50+ years of history, so... TV ratings don't determine who wins championships. Your takes get more irrational by the minute. I'm saying the leagues don't want us (or any non-major market team) two win. MLB has just been particularly adept at making sure that the system is set up so the major market teams are almost always in the mix to win it all. They're almost always serious playoff contenders. This year it's the Dodgers and Mets in the NL, and the Yankees in the AL. That's the way the league wants it. Better for ratings.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 8:12:49 GMT -8
Irrelevant nonsense. Yes, I think Fernando is here for his contract duration. He's signed to a very team friendly deal and took WAY less than HE is worth to stay here. I don't care about NBA franchises in the 70's. Completely irrelevant and undeserving of any comparison. I have no idea who you are talking about in terms of "could be as good as Soto"....both guys are in A-ball. That's a far cry from being a World Series force and a batting champion at 21. What you're failing to realize is that it doesn't stop with Soto and it's not about this year. He's under control for two additional seasons. It is absolutely ridiculous if you study the long-term trends of players who break in to majors at Soto's age if you think he's peaked. (Again, guys don't peak in their early twenties) - Here's a list of guys at age 20 who have 400+ plate appearances since 1980: Mike Trout {Hall of Fame), Juan Soto, Alex Rodriguez (Should have been), Bryce Harper (Yep), Ken Griffey Jr. (Already in), Manny Machado (Future Hall of Famer)....you get the point. Juan Soto is the single most impactful move you can make. You're talking about a generational star. An outfield of Profar, Grisham and Soto is light years better than an outfield of Profar, Grisham, Ian Happ or anyone else. Soto is legitimately better in that scenario than the two guys you want to replace him with. Value. Luckily, they have these things called stats...so I can tell you exactly how many home runs Juan Soto would have playing his games at Petco (which isn't the pitcher's heaven it used to be).....Wait for it.....20. The same amount he has now in Washington. Oops. They won a playoff series in 2020. Try again. Preller hasn't done squat? He rebuilt the farm in two years. He traded James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. He signed Manny Machado. He traded for Joe Musgrove. He traded for Yu Darvish. He transformed a lifeless franchise and injected it with multiple future Hall of Fame players who will go into Cooperstown as Padres. I get that they haven't won. $#!+ happens. Everything about your doom and gloom scenarios lacks foundational reasoning or is just completely untrue. I get it, you're jaded or bitter or angry. Fine. But those emotions don't change the facts. OK, fair enough, we won a freaking WILD CARD series. 2 out of 3 games. I forgot about that as we got swept by the Dodgers right after that. Imagine that - swept by the Dodgers! Who could have seen that coming? And if you don't believe that it's even possible that Soto's already peaked, well, I guess you think his production this year matches the last two years. It doesn't. He's down significantly, but you cite all these new stats that agents came up with to increase the value of their players and tell me I'm wrong. You tell me it's impossible that he's peaked. You think he's a lock for the Hall of Fame. I've got news for you - if he continues to play like he's playing this year he is a lock for the Hall of Very Good at best. He's having a decent, but unspectacular season this year. If this is the new normal for him he is most certainly NOT worth trading Hassell and 3 other guys for. He'd have to come back to his production from 2020 and 2021 and maintain that for the next 8-10 years to be worth that price. He's not doing it this year. Have you even considered that the league has caught up with this guy and pitchers learned how to be more effective against him? That's happened literally hundreds of times in the last half century. Hot kid comes in, sets the world on fire, then a pitcher or two learns how to make him average, and everyone copies them. It happens. I'm not saying he's going to suddenly suck, just not be anywhere near a Hall of Famer. And not worth trading away the future of the Padres. This team still has major holes - and they aren't going after a relief pitcher? Sure, they don't need relievers, right? I mean, they didn't just give away yet another game late, right? There are several areas of need, and counting on one guy to turn this team into a World Series Champion is silly. He won't make that big of a difference. The team is 12 games back and isn't anywhere near as good as the Dodgers, Mets, or Braves. Who could have seen the Dodgers sweep coming? Everyone. The Padres were down their top two starting pitchers in a shortened series against a juggernaut. Imagine the Mets starting a playoff series without Scherzer and deGrom and having to pivot to Chris Bassitt or Carlos Carrasco. It's not easy. Your idea of "production" is revolved around...what? For a chunk of the season, Juan Soto had 6 home runs and 7 RBI. Not a typo. He can't get guys on base in front of him on what is the worst team in baseball. There is literally nothing to indicate he has peaked. The OBP? Elite. The slugging percentage? Elite. The run creation? Elite. Would you feel better if he was performing to his expected numbers? Sure. Is it a sign of anything? Absolutely not. Also, LOL....Agents didn't come up with WAR or wRC+ - Sabermetricians did. It's an easy way to create a park adjusted metric across baseball to tell how a player's impact is actually felt. 100 is league average. Soto is 146, and has already a 201 season and a 163 season. He's #8 all-time on that list and every player above him is in the Hall of Fame or will be shortly. The league has caught on? Lol. He has a .400 OBP and is on pace for 30+ home runs in a year where you think he's terrible. Let's use some common sense here. He's walking at an elite rate, he's still generating power at a very high rate and still barreling the ball at an elite clip. Your entire argument is revolved around his batting average, which is outdated and unimportant. If he was hitting .290, his OBP would be in the mid-.430's. Are we still having this discussion then? No. Robert Hassell isn't Juan Soto. I love Robert Hassell. I've talked to his family. Great kid. He's not Juan Soto. His 99.9999999% outcome could be Soto-lite, but he'll be 21 in a month and a half. Soto won a batting title by hitting .351 in the majors at 21. If Soto isn't worth trading the farm for...who is? Historically speaking, the team that lands the superstar ALWAYS wins these deals. They get the established guy. The other team rebuilds and takes on risk for years down the road.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 8:14:20 GMT -8
TV ratings don't determine who wins championships. Your takes get more irrational by the minute. I'm saying the leagues don't want us (or any non-major market team) two win. MLB has just been particularly adept at making sure that the system is set up so the major market teams are almost always in the mix to win it all. They're almost always serious playoff contenders. This year it's the Dodgers and Mets in the NL, and the Yankees in the AL. That's the way the league wants it. Better for ratings. And you're again wrong. I've already disproved this multiple times. The Royals won a title in 2015. The Pirates have won titles. The Cubs have won titles. The Marlins won titles. It's irrelevant. Well-run organizations win.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 8:19:18 GMT -8
I'm saying the leagues don't want us (or any non-major market team) two win. MLB has just been particularly adept at making sure that the system is set up so the major market teams are almost always in the mix to win it all. They're almost always serious playoff contenders. This year it's the Dodgers and Mets in the NL, and the Yankees in the AL. That's the way the league wants it. Better for ratings. And you're again wrong. I've already disproved this multiple times. The Royals won a title in 2015. The Pirates have won titles. The Cubs have won titles. The Marlins won titles. It's irrelevant. Well-run organizations win. Thank you for bringing up the Royals. What's happened to that team since then? One of the worst teams in the league for the last 5 years? Imagine that! That's the price you have to pay if you're a small or mid market team and you want to win a World Series - you have to give up a 5 to 10 year span afterwards where your team will not even be slightly competitive. Coming in NEXT TO LAST is a huge achievement at that point. Meanwhile, the big market teams keep winning and winning and winning and winning and winning and winning... The Red Sox going into the tank over the last month is shocking! If it were a small or mid market team no one would even notice. It would be expected.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 8:24:27 GMT -8
And you're again wrong. I've already disproved this multiple times. The Royals won a title in 2015. The Pirates have won titles. The Cubs have won titles. The Marlins won titles. It's irrelevant. Well-run organizations win. Thank you for bringing up the Royals. What's happened to that team since then? One of the worst teams in the league for the last 5 years? Imagine that! That's the price you have to pay if you're a small or mid market team and you want to win a World Series - you have to give up a 5 to 10 year span afterwards where your team will not even be slightly competitive. Coming in NEXT TO LAST is a huge achievement at that point. Meanwhile, the big market teams keep winning and winning and winning and winning and winning and winning... The Red Sox going into the tank over the last month is shocking! If it were a small or mid market team no one would even notice. It would be expected. They tore it down with aging veterans because their owner didn't invest in the team. Pretty simple. It's not universal, nor does it mean anything.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 31, 2022 8:29:36 GMT -8
His stats are not worth giving up the farm to get him. He's WAY down from the previous two years. It seems like you and everyone else is caught up in those two great years he had, but they may have been the absolute peak of his career. Oh, and batting average is still the most basic and most important stat there is. You can't score runs if you can't get on base, and you're not going to drive in a ton of runs with a .240 average. Downplaying one of the most basic, fundamental stats in baseball is foolish. Is it worth giving up the future to get him? Will he alone make the difference that brings a World Series title to San Diego? (Will adding him give the Padres a better than 50/50 chance of winning the World Series as opposed to any other player they have or could get?) If not, he's not worth the price. If the Padres give up a ton to get him this team is going to SUCK in 3 or 4 years. They're going to need that farm system to provide replacements for Machado and Tatis, as well as filling all the holes on this roster. A) Batting average without BABIP context is meaningless, not important in the slightest. His OBP is .400, on the strength of a 20% walk rate. He gets on base at an elite clip. B) He has a 146 wRC+, which means he's 46% above league average in creating runs. Saying his numbers are way down is false, his BABIP is down 90 points from last season. Next you're going to tell me Eric Hosmer is better because he's hitting .270. Stop. C) You don't peak at 23. Soto is in the top ten EVER for career OPS+ through 2,000 plate appearances. He's a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer on this trajectory. D) An established superstar is absolutely worth selling the farm. What are you hoping for, for the farm guys to be...Juan Soto? Why not just get the actual Juan Soto instead? E) That's not entirely true. AJ Preller has shown an uncanny ability to reload the farm in multiple seasons. This front office excels at scouting and talent identification. They drafted two guys LAST YEAR who are already consensus top 100 prospects, including Jackson Merrill, who most thought was a reach. F) There is no replacing Tatis in a couple years...he's under contract through 2034. Machado is here until 2027. Your window? It's now. Actually, I believe Machado is here until 2028--assuming he doesn't opt-out after 2023. Stranger things have happened...
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 8:32:30 GMT -8
The idea that Preller is going to trade away "the farm" is pretty hilarious. Abrams just graduated, Gore just graduated. So you have Wood (soon to be their #1), Hassell, Campusano, Merrill, Susana, Lesko, Snelling, Acosta, Zavala and Gasser. They'll add Ethan Salas in January, a consensus top three IFA signee. They could trade away Abrams, Gore, Hassell and Wood and still be left with multiple top 100 prospects.
It's a completely facetious argument.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 31, 2022 8:34:00 GMT -8
A) Batting average without BABIP context is meaningless, not important in the slightest. His OBP is .400, on the strength of a 20% walk rate. He gets on base at an elite clip. B) He has a 146 wRC+, which means he's 46% above league average in creating runs. Saying his numbers are way down is false, his BABIP is down 90 points from last season. Next you're going to tell me Eric Hosmer is better because he's hitting .270. Stop. C) You don't peak at 23. Soto is in the top ten EVER for career OPS+ through 2,000 plate appearances. He's a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer on this trajectory. D) An established superstar is absolutely worth selling the farm. What are you hoping for, for the farm guys to be...Juan Soto? Why not just get the actual Juan Soto instead? E) That's not entirely true. AJ Preller has shown an uncanny ability to reload the farm in multiple seasons. This front office excels at scouting and talent identification. They drafted two guys LAST YEAR who are already consensus top 100 prospects, including Jackson Merrill, who most thought was a reach. F) There is no replacing Tatis in a couple years...he's under contract through 2034. Machado is here until 2027. Your window? It's now. Actually, I believe Machado is here until 2028--assuming he doesn't opt-out after 2023. Stranger things have happened... Correct, I forgot his age-35 season. And if he opts out, it's to re-sign here.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 31, 2022 8:34:12 GMT -8
OK, fair enough, we won a freaking WILD CARD series. 2 out of 3 games. I forgot about that as we got swept by the Dodgers right after that. Imagine that - swept by the Dodgers! Who could have seen that coming? And if you don't believe that it's even possible that Soto's already peaked, well, I guess you think his production this year matches the last two years. It doesn't. He's down significantly, but you cite all these new stats that agents came up with to increase the value of their players and tell me I'm wrong. You tell me it's impossible that he's peaked. You think he's a lock for the Hall of Fame. I've got news for you - if he continues to play like he's playing this year he is a lock for the Hall of Very Good at best. He's having a decent, but unspectacular season this year. If this is the new normal for him he is most certainly NOT worth trading Hassell and 3 other guys for. He'd have to come back to his production from 2020 and 2021 and maintain that for the next 8-10 years to be worth that price. He's not doing it this year. Have you even considered that the league has caught up with this guy and pitchers learned how to be more effective against him? That's happened literally hundreds of times in the last half century. Hot kid comes in, sets the world on fire, then a pitcher or two learns how to make him average, and everyone copies them. It happens. I'm not saying he's going to suddenly suck, just not be anywhere near a Hall of Famer. And not worth trading away the future of the Padres. This team still has major holes - and they aren't going after a relief pitcher? Sure, they don't need relievers, right? I mean, they didn't just give away yet another game late, right? There are several areas of need, and counting on one guy to turn this team into a World Series Champion is silly. He won't make that big of a difference. The team is 12 games back and isn't anywhere near as good as the Dodgers, Mets, or Braves. Who could have seen the Dodgers sweep coming? Everyone. The Padres were down their top two starting pitchers in a shortened series against a juggernaut. Imagine the Mets starting a playoff series without Scherzer and deGrom and having to pivot to Chris Bassitt or Carlos Carrasco. It's not easy. Your idea of "production" is revolved around...what? For a chunk of the season, Juan Soto had 6 home runs and 7 RBI. Not a typo. He can't get guys on base in front of him on what is the worst team in baseball. There is literally nothing to indicate he has peaked. The OBP? Elite. The slugging percentage? Elite. The run creation? Elite. Would you feel better if he was performing to his expected numbers? Sure. Is it a sign of anything? Absolutely not. Also, LOL....Agents didn't come up with WAR or wRC+ - Sabermetricians did. It's an easy way to create a park adjusted metric across baseball to tell how a player's impact is actually felt. 100 is league average. Soto is 146, and has already a 201 season and a 163 season. He's #8 all-time on that list and every player above him is in the Hall of Fame or will be shortly. The league has caught on? Lol. He has a .400 OBP and is on pace for 30+ home runs in a year where you think he's terrible. Let's use some common sense here. He's walking at an elite rate, he's still generating power at a very high rate and still barreling the ball at an elite clip. Your entire argument is revolved around his batting average, which is outdated and unimportant. If he was hitting .290, his OBP would be in the mid-.430's. Are we still having this discussion then? No. Robert Hassell isn't Juan Soto. I love Robert Hassell. I've talked to his family. Great kid. He's not Juan Soto. His 99.9999999% outcome could be Soto-lite, but he'll be 21 in a month and a half. Soto won a batting title by hitting .351 in the majors at 21. If Soto isn't worth trading the farm for...who is? Historically speaking, the team that lands the superstar ALWAYS wins these deals. They get the established guy. The other team rebuilds and takes on risk for years down the road. Ummmmm... When did I say Soto was terrible? Are you on drugs? It's either that, or you've resorted to lies and distortions to desperately try to win this debate. If you think it's impossible for pitchers to catch on to what works against batters, then you haven't been watching baseball over the last 50 years. It happens. All the time. What it sounds like, though, is that you think it's impossible for pitchers to catch up with Soto and figure him out. Like he's transcendent. He's a kid. It's WAY too early to deify him as a player. I've seen a lot of guys get hot, then cool off and settle in to an average or just above average range for the rest of their careers. It happens. A lot. You don't seem to believe he can be less than Hall of Fame level. OK, that's fine. We'll see. I'm saying that on a team with multiple holes (could use probably 3 new relievers as our bullpen is $#!+, and another outfielder - one who can actually hit), putting all of your hopes on ONE GUY to come in and transform the team into a World Series Champion is silly. What got the 1984 and 1998 Padres into the World Series? It wasn't numbers. They were truly TEAMS. They were like family. They had that ingangible thing where they wanted to win for each other. They wanted the other guys on the team to succeed just as much as they wanted to succeed themselves. There was unity and camaraderie. That's the thing your love of advanced player metrics totally misses. Would Soto bring that kind of camaraderie to the table, or is he a self centered player more concerned about himself and future contracts than his teammates? Because if he isn't a selfless player and his attitude isn't team oriented, he won't be that piece of the puzzle tht you seem to think he will be. I know nothing about his personality or how good he is with his teammates. But if I were Preller I'd sure want to know everything about his personality and psyche. That's just as important as the metrics. Moreso, in a lot of ways. Great players can sometimes be divisive and create a toxic environment on a team that makes it impossible for them to meet their potential.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 31, 2022 8:39:17 GMT -8
Actually, I believe Machado is here until 2028--assuming he doesn't opt-out after 2023. Stranger things have happened... Correct, I forgot his age-35 season. And if he opts out, it's to re-sign here. Is it? Couldn't he sign for 5 years somewhere else at an AAV higher than what he is guaranteed with the Padres?
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