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Post by johneaztec on Jul 27, 2022 21:19:05 GMT -8
I'd love Josh Bell and Ian Happ because we're not getting Soto with CJ and Gore injured. It all comes down to Gore, and how severe his injury is.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 27, 2022 21:21:59 GMT -8
CJ's expected back Friday and I would go nowhere near making that statement right now. GM's are pretty split 50/50 on if Soto even gets traded before the deadline. Good news is that Rizzo publicly rejected the idea that they are requiring teams to take Corbin and his salary as part of the deal. Bad news is the Gore injury - CJ is fine. But still... 50/50 that he gets trades or not, and let's say IF Soto is traded, odds by team that they get Soto (these are just guesses): Cardinals 30% Padres 25% Giants 15% Mariners 10% Mets 5% Astros 5% Dodgers 5% Yankees 5% .50 * .25 = .125, or a 12.5% chance that we get SotoIf I was to bet, I would bet on Ian Happ being our right fielder here pretty soon. If Soto goes to the Cardinals, that puts more heat on us to get the Wild Card.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 27, 2022 21:22:57 GMT -8
CJ's expected back Friday and I would go nowhere near making that statement right now. GM's are pretty split 50/50 on if Soto even gets traded before the deadline. Good news is that Rizzo publicly rejected the idea that they are requiring teams to take Corbin and his salary as part of the deal. Bad news is the Gore injury - CJ is fine. But still... 50/50 that he gets trades or not, and let's say IF Soto is traded, odds by team that they get Soto (these are just guesses): Cardinals 30% Padres 25% Giants 15% Mariners 10% Mets 5% Astros 5% Dodgers 5% Yankees 5% .50 * .25 = .125, or a 12.5% chance that we get SotoIf I was to bet, I would bet on Ian Happ being our right fielder here pretty soon. I've heard the Cardinals are the front runners, but you never know.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 28, 2022 7:23:19 GMT -8
CJ's expected back Friday and I would go nowhere near making that statement right now. GM's are pretty split 50/50 on if Soto even gets traded before the deadline. Good news is that Rizzo publicly rejected the idea that they are requiring teams to take Corbin and his salary as part of the deal. Bad news is the Gore injury - CJ is fine. But still... 50/50 that he gets trades or not, and let's say IF Soto is traded, odds by team that they get Soto (these are just guesses): Cardinals 30% Padres 25% Giants 15% Mariners 10% Mets 5% Astros 5% Dodgers 5% Yankees 5% .50 * .25 = .125, or a 12.5% chance that we get SotoIf I was to bet, I would bet on Ian Happ being our right fielder here pretty soon. The Giants are out. The Mets are out. I'm not sure the Cardinals are really all that involved, with an unwillingness to pay the prospect cost at the depth the Nationals want. Take everything you read from rival executives with a grain of salt. A TON of smokescreens.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 28, 2022 7:29:47 GMT -8
Exhibit A.
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Post by junior on Jul 28, 2022 9:33:15 GMT -8
Makes sense now that CJ has “biceps soreness” to keep him shelved. Gore’s MRI results today should be similarly kept under wraps, one would think… unless it's really bad news, and the Padres could keep him out of a deal easily with that. All about screening with lots of smoke right now.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 28, 2022 10:51:32 GMT -8
Makes sense now that CJ has “biceps soreness” to keep him shelved. Gore’s MRI results today should be similarly kept under wraps, one would think… unless it's really bad news, and the Padres could keep him out of a deal easily with that. All about screening with lots of smoke right now. Kinda like I alluded to the other day - There's a lot going on behind the scenes right now that we're not privy to. Ohtani discussions, for example.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 28, 2022 13:14:07 GMT -8
GM's are pretty split 50/50 on if Soto even gets traded before the deadline. Good news is that Rizzo publicly rejected the idea that they are requiring teams to take Corbin and his salary as part of the deal. Bad news is the Gore injury - CJ is fine. But still... 50/50 that he gets trades or not, and let's say IF Soto is traded, odds by team that they get Soto (these are just guesses): Cardinals 30% Padres 25% Giants 15% Mariners 10% Mets 5% Astros 5% Dodgers 5% Yankees 5% .50 * .25 = .125, or a 12.5% chance that we get SotoIf I was to bet, I would bet on Ian Happ being our right fielder here pretty soon. The Giants are out. The Mets are out. I'm not sure the Cardinals are really all that involved, with an unwillingness to pay the prospect cost at the depth the Nationals want. Take everything you read from rival executives with a grain of salt. A TON of smokescreens. Of course. Still though. Let's even say he's 60/40 to be traded, with updated odds: Padres 50% Cardinals 20% Mariners 15% Dodgers 15% Padres still would only have a 30% chance to land him. Landing Shohei would be amazing, obviously. Landing Soto would be amazing. I hope that Happ and Contreras are still available at the deadline in case one of these mega deals doesn't happen. The worst case scenario would be almost having a deal lined up for Soto or Shohei, the Cubs trading Happ and Contreras, and the mega deal falling through.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 28, 2022 13:20:39 GMT -8
The Giants are out. The Mets are out. I'm not sure the Cardinals are really all that involved, with an unwillingness to pay the prospect cost at the depth the Nationals want. Take everything you read from rival executives with a grain of salt. A TON of smokescreens. Of course. Still though. Let's even say he's 60/40 to be traded, with updated odds: Padres 50% Cardinals 20% Mariners 15% Dodgers 15% Padres still would only have a 30% chance to land him. Landing Shohei would be amazing, obviously. Landing Soto would be amazing. I hope that Happ and Contreras are still available at the deadline in case one of these mega deals doesn't happen. The worst case scenario would be almost having a deal lined up for Soto or Shohei, the Cubs trading Happ and Contreras, and the mega deal falling through. Padres are in talks with the Cubs on both.
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Post by aztecmusician on Jul 28, 2022 15:35:15 GMT -8
The Padres need an outfielder and some bullpen help. Mazara, Grisham, Myers, Profar, all of these guys are average to below average right now. I wouldn’t count on Tatis playing too much in the OF when he returns unless he has some limitations on his throwing or running. If they hope to stand toe to toe with the Dodgers in a playoff series, Soto would be a huge help. He is very young with time still on his contract. And he is the league’s best hitter.
Right now the pen is very unreliable. Bring in a righty with a lights out change up.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 28, 2022 17:40:21 GMT -8
The Padres need an outfielder and some bullpen help. Mazara, Grisham, Myers, Profar, all of these guys are average to below average right now. I wouldn’t count on Tatis playing too much in the OF when he returns unless he has some limitations on his throwing or running. If they hope to stand toe to toe with the Dodgers in a playoff series, Soto would be a huge help. He is very young with time still on his contract. And he is the league’s best hitter. Right now the pen is very unreliable. Bring in a righty with a lights out change up. We are getting two relievers back soon who have been injured (Pomeranz and Johnson). At this point, our bullpen should be fine. Regarding the closer situation, I think it's worth considering using Morejon as a two inning closer like Mariano Rivera. Morejon has been unhittable lately, he has the stuff to be a closer, and he has enough endurance to pitch two innings in relief.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 28, 2022 18:32:27 GMT -8
Boy has it been a day...
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Post by survalli on Jul 28, 2022 20:30:25 GMT -8
trade for Ohtani? YES PLEASE!
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Post by junior on Jul 28, 2022 21:17:26 GMT -8
Makes sense now that CJ has “biceps soreness” to keep him shelved. Gore’s MRI results today should be similarly kept under wraps, one would think… unless it's really bad news, and the Padres could keep him out of a deal easily with that. All about screening with lots of smoke right now. Kinda like I alluded to the other day - There's a lot going on behind the scenes right now that we're not privy to. Ohtani discussions, for example. Just read a few new roomers about Ohtani. Doggers are interested, too. While Soto is not having a banner year (offensively or defensively) he's still a generational talent, a la Ohtani. Either one could immediately change the trajectory of this team … and since we're dreaming, why not both? Teams (like Washington and Anaheim) that are basically out of the post season already can also immediately change the future trajectories of their teams right now. Once the season's over, there's some value lost for both players since a year's worth of post-season contention is lost … trade now, or trade later, but trading teams' best hopes for a big talent haul happens within the next 5 days.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 29, 2022 6:04:02 GMT -8
Kinda like I alluded to the other day - There's a lot going on behind the scenes right now that we're not privy to. Ohtani discussions, for example. Just read a few new roomers about Ohtani. Doggers are interested, too. While Soto is not having a banner year (offensively or defensively) he's still a generational talent, a la Ohtani. Either one could immediately change the trajectory of this team … and since we're dreaming, why not both? Teams (like Washington and Anaheim) that are basically out of the post season already can also immediately change the future trajectories of their teams right now. Once the season's over, there's some value lost for both players since a year's worth of post-season contention is lost … trade now, or trade later, but trading teams' best hopes for a big talent haul happens within the next 5 days. Soto's been nearly 50% better than league average, despite his low batting average and am abnormally high ground ball rate. Why not both? It's virtually impossible given the cost and I don't expect Arte Moreno to approve any deal. The Angels have a TON of marketing and business obligations tied up in the Pacific Rim. It would largely kill their franchise.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 29, 2022 18:27:12 GMT -8
Luis Castillo to the Mariners.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 29, 2022 21:19:54 GMT -8
Scott Boras is at Petco Park tonight. (Still there as we speak)…. Definitely not a coincidence.
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Post by survalli on Jul 29, 2022 22:01:51 GMT -8
Scott Boras is at Petco Park tonight. (Still there as we speak)…. Definitely not a coincidence. trade + extension?
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Jul 29, 2022 23:36:03 GMT -8
OK, playing Devil's Advocate here...
Juan Soto is only 23. Is it at all possible that he is a flash in the pan who settles in as just an average player by 26 or 27 years old?
We've seen it before. Guys get hot, have a world class year or two, then the league adjusts, and they come back to earth.
Until he's played at that top level for more than a couple years (he's already cooled down, his batting average is below average this year) is it really worth risking the future of your franchise on this guy? (If they went all in - trading away key prospects and signing him to a long term, absurd money deal.)
If the Padres do trade for him (giving away multiple key prospects), and if they do then sign this guy to an extension, are you really confident that a kid like that (age wise) is going to keep it together at that level for another decade?
I'm just so used to everything blowing up in the Padres' faces that I can't believe that a move like this will work out the way they think it will. I Just have a horrible feeling (based on how things always work out for the Padres) that this will end up ruining the team once we've lost Machado and Tatis. How many prospects can we give up and still field a legit contender 5 or 6 years from now?
This is where the Dodgers have a huge advantage. If they made a deal like this and it went bad it wouldn't hurt them one bit long term. They'd just reload. The Padres won't be able to do that.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2022 6:48:41 GMT -8
Y’all want Franmil back? ——— 9. Franmil Reyes was in right field when the Guards played in Tampa Bay Friday night. Scouts were in the stands. Cleveland would love to move Reyes, who is mostly a DH. Reyes batted .135 in April. He’s shown some signs of life since coming off the injured list on June 21, batting .240 (.722 OPS) with 6 HR in 117 at-bats. He also has fanned 46 times in those 117 at-bats. Terry Pluto, Cleveland Plain Dealer
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