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Post by fisherville on Apr 5, 2020 11:21:51 GMT -8
If you think the sporting world is going to wait 18 months to restart you are quite simply wrong
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Post by docmm on Apr 5, 2020 11:29:22 GMT -8
Get used to it. In February, I posted the first don't-look-now-but-the-coronavirus-is-threatening-to-wipe-out-the-NCAA-tournament and was initially slammed by many as a wack-a-doodle doomsday prophet. Turned out, sadly, I was just a realist. Ugh. But I've been thinking the past few weeks that it's highly doubtful sports will get back on track until the fall of 2021 at the earliest. That means no Aztec football and no Aztec basketball these fall/winter/spring seasons. Painful. Not sure how the school and its administrators will handle this, but it's going to be a train wreck with lots of chaos. Sorry, but it's time we start wrapping our heads around this. Because it's gonna happen. In the meantime be safe and be well, everyone. Oh, and if we could keep the political gibberish out of this thread, that would be helpful. I'm interested in some learned opinions on how the school is going to cope with this as it impacts everything from recruiting, to player fitness, to coaching cohesiveness, to jobs, to budgets, etc., etc. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/04/how-long-until-sports-can-return-you-might-not-like-answer/bookmarking this for obvious reasons. if a wackadoodle throws enough crap out there, they're bound to be right eventually. when they are correct, that doesn't make them prophetic. This x 1000
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 11:34:21 GMT -8
If you think the sporting world is going to wait 18 months to restart you are quite simply wrong Not just the sporting world, but the economic/business world. To go 18 months with half the economy shut down would be a disaster of Biblical proportions.
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Post by tonatiuh on Apr 5, 2020 11:38:44 GMT -8
It's funny you mention you want to keep the political gibberish out of this thread, but the article you show is from the Washington Post, and they are no better than the New York Times for political gibberish! So, who are we to believe?
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Post by Aztec Empire on Apr 5, 2020 11:45:50 GMT -8
I believe that you are missing one important item that could shorten the date. Better testing. Once they are able to conduct test that could identify exposed individuals based on blood samples, this would be a game changer and could allow them to get test results back in 2 hours. Currently being worked on and they are getting closer. With the medical minds from around the world You would think that a vaccine could come out in less than 12 months. Also if we really start mass producing HCL Zpak and Zinc together and prescribing it on a wide scale we could reduce viral load time hospital visits and add to peace of mind. There are potential mitigating factors that might reduce the timeframe before the zeitgeist goes back to being able to get outside relatively safely. But yes if we don’t increase testing, if there is no treatment that reduces exposure, and if we must wait for the vaccine then I’d say you’re correct.
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Post by AzTex on Apr 5, 2020 12:04:42 GMT -8
Get used to it. In February, I posted the first don't-look-now-but-the-coronavirus-is-threatening-to-wipe-out-the-NCAA-tournament and was initially slammed by many as a wack-a-doodle doomsday prophet. Turned out, sadly, I was just a realist. Ugh. But I've been thinking the past few weeks that it's highly doubtful sports will get back on track until the fall of 2021 at the earliest. That means no Aztec football and no Aztec basketball these fall/winter/spring seasons. Painful. Not sure how the school and its administrators will handle this, but it's going to be a train wreck with lots of chaos. Sorry, but it's time we start wrapping our heads around this. Because it's gonna happen. In the meantime be safe and be well, everyone. Oh, and if we could keep the political gibberish out of this thread, that would be helpful. I'm interested in some learned opinions on how the school is going to cope with this as it impacts everything from recruiting, to player fitness, to coaching cohesiveness, to jobs, to budgets, etc., etc. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/04/how-long-until-sports-can-return-you-might-not-like-answer/bookmarking this for obvious reasons. if a wackadoodle throws enough crap out there, they're bound to be right eventually. when they are correct, that doesn't make them prophetic. As my son says, "Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day."
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Post by namssa on Apr 5, 2020 12:40:14 GMT -8
I can see the NFL with the money they have playing this year. It will be to empty stadiums but the TV money will probably be worth it to them. However, there are only 32 teams and only 53 players per team. Plus they fly in private planes and have all the money in the world to isolate the players to keep them safe. They will probably also have the ability test every player daily. That is what will be needed for this to succeed.
I see no way college football plays, however. 125 teams with 80-100 players per team. College players mostly fly around the US on public airlines. And it would be unlikely you can get testing of all the players of all 125 teams to insure safety of everyone. Plus it's one thing to tell an NFL football player making millions to "work" and to isolate as part of their paid job. But its entirely a different thing to ask the same of an unpaid college player/student athlete. To do the same isn't reasonable.
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Post by hoobs on Apr 5, 2020 12:40:31 GMT -8
Very good post(s), aztecdieheart.
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Post by hoobs on Apr 5, 2020 12:43:40 GMT -8
It's funny you mention you want to keep the political gibberish out of this thread, but the article you show is from the Washington Post, and they are no better than the New York Times for political gibberish! So, who are we to believe? If you ignore the opinion columns (they are conveniently labeled "opinion" not "objective news") those institutions practice some of the best journalism in this country (moreso the NYT, but the WaPo isn't bad). Not perfect, but very good. The fact that they don't sync with your personal opinions and ideology doesn't make them bad or wrong.
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Post by sdsu2000 on Apr 5, 2020 13:06:39 GMT -8
The biggest thing we can hope for right now is that there's an existing drug out there that can help in the treatment. There are currently studies going on at universities where human cultures have been infected with the virus. Those are then being treated with existing approved drugs. That's the quickest path to fighting this virus. I think a vaccine wouldn't start up until 2021 at the earliest due to the FDA process. There's a lot happening which is a good sign.
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 5, 2020 13:26:56 GMT -8
NO Sports Opinions God love the people on this Board. I try and offer the basis for a personal judgement about my travel,and indirectly by inference,investing.I spent a lot of time in research and had access to some very knowledgeable health care and scientific professionals-Silly me, I thought it might help inform a few about the choices they might have to make about the virus going forward.I expressly offered no opinion about the future of sports.What reaction did I get? Your are wrong about sports. Of course I could be wrong,about everything.I hope I am.Some one famously said every one is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.As it stands now the facts are that social distancing is required.Schools are closed for the rest of the year.The graph of new cases is still going up.There is no National ,stay at home, or any other kind of virus related order.
Our governor just said he does not see fans at professional sports in the fall.China just renewed its ban of people at sports events.The July Olympics are cancelled.All of SDSU's Spring sports are cancelled.
No one knows for sure,where we will be about sports,or anything else virus related,in 18 months.Too many unknown variables.Obviously doesn't stop people from offering their opinions.I obviously failed to stay out of that briar patch, by just talking about my decision making process-for what ever help it might be.
All I do know, that my best judgement ,based on the facts available to me and as of to this date, is that I am not going to be traveling-or otherwise be around a group of people in close contact, for at least the next six months.And that I have backed that judgement by taking some financial loses.
One other thing I hope I know-is that no one responsible for sports or the University itself at SDSU, is going to pay any attention to anything posted on this board-thank goodness. For sure:If they ask me to renew, any or all of my season tickets and AC memberships, I am lucky enough to be able to afford it,so I will. More than ever, they will need all the support we can give, to get them past the revenue losses, they have already been hit with and likely will suffer going forward.
As much as I enjoyed reading your initial post on your opinions, you need to get real. You posted it in the SPORTS FORUM. If you truly wanted your best shot at having no sports opinions on your post, then you should have posted it else where. Get real, and off your high horse.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 14:54:30 GMT -8
I do think it's rather absurd that ANYONE thinks that we can continue to shut down the world economy for another year. Sorry, not possible.
Another 2 or MAYBE 3 months? Sure, that's possible (without disastrous results), but you can't continue to keep things on lockdown without it creating an economy that would make the Great Depression look like the good old days!
Sports are part of that economy. You can't stop the entire entertainment industry (Sports, movies, concerts, theater, etc) anymore than you can continue to shut down the rest of the economy. The end result would be far worse than the virus itself.
Like I said, we can survive this for another 2-3 months, but after that curve gets flattened and we're on the back nine of COVID-19 we have to get the economy up and running otherwise hundreds of thousands of people in this country will lose their homes and starve to death. And that's not an exaggeration.
Now maybe you phase different sectors in over a 2-3 month period, but you cannot shut down all movie theaters, restaurants, concerts, sporting events, etc, for another 6 months to a year without the economy cratering in a way that would have an impact lasting more than a decade.
So while it's a nice thought to say, "Let's all hunker down until this thing is COMPLETELY gone," that's just not practical and it's not realistic.
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Post by hoobs on Apr 5, 2020 15:10:10 GMT -8
"Stop" vs "make radical changes to" the entertainment industry?
No... sports, concerts, movies, restaurants... you're right, they cannot be "stopped." But they *can* be radically changed. Movies could become $15 at-home rentals instead of being shown at theaters. Producers would make less money, but maybe that would mean Brad Pitt making only $10mil per movie instead of $20mil. Restaurants... would have to be redesigned for a much reduced occupancy, and probably charging an increased premium for 'sit-down' patrons while doing a greatly increased takeaway business. Also... just fewer, more likely locally owned & not chain restaurants. Music... welp, maybe concerts would be pay per view, with the marquee artists no longer making tens of millions on a year's worth of touring.
Sports... maybe take several steps back in cultural significance. Maybe games are played almost exclusively for TV, with the only in-person attendance being premium "box seats" and luxury boxes.
Maybe far less dramatic changes will ultimately be necessary, but "society" would be just fine if it has to massively transform the entertainment industry.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 15:21:41 GMT -8
"Stop" vs "make radical changes to" the entertainment industry? No... sports, concerts, movies, restaurants... you're right, they cannot be "stopped." But they *can* be radically changed. Movies could become $15 at-home rentals instead of being shown at theaters. Producers would make less money, but maybe that would mean Brad Pitt making only $10mil per movie instead of $20mil. Restaurants... would have to be redesigned for a much reduced occupancy, and probably charging an increased premium for 'sit-down' patrons while doing a greatly increased takeaway business. Also... just fewer, more likely locally owned & not chain restaurants. Music... welp, maybe concerts would be pay per view, with the marquee artists no longer making tens of millions on a year's worth of touring. Sports... maybe take several steps back in cultural significance. Maybe games are played almost exclusively for TV, with the only in-person attendance being premium "box seats" and luxury boxes. Maybe far less dramatic changes will ultimately be necessary, but "society" would be just fine if it has to massively transform the entertainment industry. You're talking about hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of people losing their jobs in those industries. No movie theaters? Hell, how many people across the country work at movie theaters? Easily a quarter million. Maybe more. ALL out of work under your proposal. Restaurants with limited seating and premium prices for in restaurant seating (pricing most people out)? Hundreds of thousands more people losing their jobs (waiters/waitresses/servers/hosts). Sporting events shut down to the public? Minimum of tens of thousands of jobs lost. Concerts shut down? Most artists make NO money on music sales (CD's, downloads), so there would be no money made (99% of musicians today make 95% of their money on touring), and everyone except the mega artists would have their careers ended flat. We can't hide forever. We just can't. And we can't cut out millions of jobs just because some people are afraid. Once the curve is on the downside, and we're on that back nine we HAVE to start getting things back to normal otherwise the results will be catastrophic, economically, and it won't be worth winning this battle.
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Post by sdsustoner on Apr 5, 2020 15:41:40 GMT -8
We need to fire coronavirus
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Post by TruAztec on Apr 5, 2020 15:42:34 GMT -8
I do think it's rather absurd that ANYONE thinks that we can continue to shut down the world economy for another year. Sorry, not possible. Another 2 or MAYBE 3 months? Sure, that's possible (without disastrous results), but you can't continue to keep things on lockdown without it creating an economy that would make the Great Depression look like the good old days! Sports are part of that economy. You can't stop the entire entertainment industry (Sports, movies, concerts, theater, etc) anymore than you can continue to shut down the rest of the economy. The end result would be far worse than the virus itself. Like I said, we can survive this for another 2-3 months, but after that curve gets flattened and we're on the back nine of COVID-19 we have to get the economy up and running otherwise hundreds of thousands of people in this country will lose their homes and starve to death. And that's not an exaggeration. Now maybe you phase different sectors in over a 2-3 month period, but you cannot shut down all movie theaters, restaurants, concerts, sporting events, etc, for another 6 months to a year without the economy cratering in a way that would have an impact lasting more than a decade. So while it's a nice thought to say, "Let's all hunker down until this thing is COMPLETELY gone," that's just not practical and it's not realistic. I agree with you but how do you get people to go back out when they fear for their health/life. This whole situation is horrible and I have yet to see how it ends in a way that does not have "good" ending in a quick way. I agree it needs to end quickly but I just don't see people going out and acting normal if the virus is not contained. and I can't see a college playing sports especially a sport like football that can spread unconfined virus.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 15:54:06 GMT -8
I do think it's rather absurd that ANYONE thinks that we can continue to shut down the world economy for another year. Sorry, not possible. Another 2 or MAYBE 3 months? Sure, that's possible (without disastrous results), but you can't continue to keep things on lockdown without it creating an economy that would make the Great Depression look like the good old days! Sports are part of that economy. You can't stop the entire entertainment industry (Sports, movies, concerts, theater, etc) anymore than you can continue to shut down the rest of the economy. The end result would be far worse than the virus itself. Like I said, we can survive this for another 2-3 months, but after that curve gets flattened and we're on the back nine of COVID-19 we have to get the economy up and running otherwise hundreds of thousands of people in this country will lose their homes and starve to death. And that's not an exaggeration. Now maybe you phase different sectors in over a 2-3 month period, but you cannot shut down all movie theaters, restaurants, concerts, sporting events, etc, for another 6 months to a year without the economy cratering in a way that would have an impact lasting more than a decade. So while it's a nice thought to say, "Let's all hunker down until this thing is COMPLETELY gone," that's just not practical and it's not realistic. I agree with you but how do you get people to go back out when they fear for their health/life. This whole situation is horrible and I have yet to see how it ends in a way that does not have "good" ending in a quick way. I agree it needs to end quickly but I just don't see people going out and acting normal if the virus is not contained. and I can't see a college playing sports especially a sport like football that can spread unconfined virus. You'd be surprised at how many people are ignoring the recommendations (or orders) from the government on this thing. Once we're on the back nine and the greatest period of infections is over there are a lot of people who are tired of being stuck at home, unable to go do ANYTHING. People want to go out. And once the threat is greatly reduced you'll see life go back to normal. Maybe not 100%. People will wash their hands way more than they used to, and they'll give more space to others than they used to, but it's unrealistic to expect everyone to remain (almost) prisoners in their homes with no outside entertainment/recreation options. And, right now, there are a ridiculous number of people not working. How long is that sustainable? Like I've said, another 2 months? Probably. 3 months more? Maybe (with additional aid/stimulus payments). But beyond that the economy crashes in a way that we've never seen in recorded history and people go homeless and starve by the hundreds of thousands. The cure would be just as bad as, if not worse than, the disease. Continuing to quarantine anyone infected, and isolating people who have been exposed to those infected will need to continue, but beyond that it just isn't practical to expect people to stay home for more than 2 or 3 more months, and it's less practical to expect people in entire industries to just find other work. And, again, Sports is a huge part of the economy. You can't shut down all spectator sports indefinitely just because there COULD be a flare up later. There COULD be terrorist attacks, too. Sporting events make great targets! But we're not going to shut down sports because of potential terrorist attacks. Sports will start up again by the fall.
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Post by namssa on Apr 5, 2020 16:15:18 GMT -8
There definitely is a balance and there will be a time when the discussion of how many people dying is tolerable to go back to normal. That discussion (or calculation) happens all the time everywhere. For instance, what is the tolerable amount of deaths via car accident is acceptable? Right now we tolerate about 40K a year. If we lower the speed limit on every street nationwide to 15 mph we could probably lower that to under 100 deaths, but it would severely hamper our way of life, so we accept the risk and tolerate the amount of deaths. If we increase it to 100 mph then the deaths would raise drastically and by too much to be acceptable for the increase effect of time in our car. So its a balance. Right now this virus is so out of control that it would kill millions if we did nothing. That is too much to tolerate so we put in place these measures to lower the death rate. Come fall the science will tell us what will happen and society will decide if that is acceptable.
Personally I don't see stadiums being filled this year. I can't imagine people leaving their homes after this and cramming into a 50K stadium to watch football. And what happens if there is a 2nd wave (which is very likely). Does an artist want to be known for killing X amount of people because he/she decided to hold a concert knowing the risks? Does the NFL? Tough choices when it comes to life and death.
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Post by longtimebooster on Apr 5, 2020 16:35:09 GMT -8
Sports will start up again by the fall. I don't see how. You can't even have training camps or summer practice for college teams. If one player gets sick, then everyone on the team and/or in the league has the chance to get sick. Maybe 20% or 40% of the players have been COVID-19 positive by then and have immunity. But the other half will still be at risk. If we had rapid universal testing and serological testing (blood tests for post-illness immunity), then maybe you could cobble something together. But, heck, we can't even buy toilet paper or hand sanitizer. How are we going to get universal testing up and running by summer/fall. Ugh. As for shutting down the entire economy, that's not happening now. There are huge swaths of the economy shut down, but there are many industries that continue to hum. We're definitely going to have to radically transform the economy over the next year -- distance education, telemedicine, work from home, distance working, etc. It's possible to maintain safety in a variety of industries -- grocery stores, construction work, etc. Unfortunately, sports are not conducive to safe practices. Football players spit and sweat and slobber all over each other. So do basketball players. And just about every sport, except maybe tennis and/or golf. Additionally, if a coronavirus outbreak hits your team and 20% of the team falls severely ill and two to four players die, who's liable. Don't think the legal risk will go unnoticed by administrators. You don't think a spate of dead athletes at major universities across the country won't trigger one of the biggest class action lawsuits ever? Think again. Look, I'm not trying to be a negative Nellie or an outright @sshole. Just seems that way. I'm just thinking through this logically and have come to the conclusion that there are no good answers and that the path forward is going to be absolute h*ll.
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Post by biotec on Apr 5, 2020 16:37:39 GMT -8
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