|
Post by namssa on Apr 5, 2020 16:37:41 GMT -8
Also if you want a comparison look at China. The virus started in December (some say earlier) for that country and they have bent the curve to the point where they now have few new cases (if you believe the data). They were planning on starting their basketball league back up, but have pushed it again by another month to May at the earliest. And that is just basketball where they planned on having every player quarantined from the public and playing in one arena without fans. They are three to four months ahead of the US so where they are in May would be where we would be in September. They aren't even close to having sports or events with full stadiums of people.
If we have sports in September, it will be without fans in the stadiums/arenas.
|
|
|
Post by hoobs on Apr 5, 2020 18:21:08 GMT -8
"Stop" vs "make radical changes to" the entertainment industry? No... sports, concerts, movies, restaurants... you're right, they cannot be "stopped." But they *can* be radically changed. Movies could become $15 at-home rentals instead of being shown at theaters. Producers would make less money, but maybe that would mean Brad Pitt making only $10mil per movie instead of $20mil. Restaurants... would have to be redesigned for a much reduced occupancy, and probably charging an increased premium for 'sit-down' patrons while doing a greatly increased takeaway business. Also... just fewer, more likely locally owned & not chain restaurants. Music... welp, maybe concerts would be pay per view, with the marquee artists no longer making tens of millions on a year's worth of touring. Sports... maybe take several steps back in cultural significance. Maybe games are played almost exclusively for TV, with the only in-person attendance being premium "box seats" and luxury boxes. Maybe far less dramatic changes will ultimately be necessary, but "society" would be just fine if it has to massively transform the entertainment industry. You're talking about hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of people losing their jobs in those industries. No movie theaters? Hell, how many people across the country work at movie theaters? Easily a quarter million. Maybe more. ALL out of work under your proposal. Restaurants with limited seating and premium prices for in restaurant seating (pricing most people out)? Hundreds of thousands more people losing their jobs (waiters/waitresses/servers/hosts). Sporting events shut down to the public? Minimum of tens of thousands of jobs lost. Concerts shut down? Most artists make NO money on music sales (CD's, downloads), so there would be no money made (99% of musicians today make 95% of their money on touring), and everyone except the mega artists would have their careers ended flat. We can't hide forever. We just can't. And we can't cut out millions of jobs just because some people are afraid. Once the curve is on the downside, and we're on that back nine we HAVE to start getting things back to normal otherwise the results will be catastrophic, economically, and it won't be worth winning this battle. "Your proposal..." I'm not making a proposal. I'm forecasting a scenario where quite significant adjustments become necessary across society. The industrial revolution altered society, people lost jobs and had to find new ones. Such a change isn't unprecedented. I'm also not necessarily *predicting* this outcome. It's a low probability scenario. But it is FAR from implausible that we could be on such a path. The fact that this path would cause harm to a lot of people doesn't mean it's unlikely or impossible because of that fact.
|
|
|
Post by hoobs on Apr 5, 2020 18:28:26 GMT -8
Also...
"99% of musicians today make 95% of their money on touring"
I call b.s. on that unless you have some valid citations to substantiate such numbers. But further, if something close to those numbers is true, then the music industry will evolve. More concerts via StageIt, YouTube PPV, etc.
It's change. Painful or revolutionary, change itself is agnostic.
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 19:38:38 GMT -8
Sports will start up again by the fall. I don't see how. You can't even have training camps or summer practice for college teams. If one player gets sick, then everyone on the team and/or in the league has the chance to get sick. Maybe 20% or 40% of the players have been COVID-19 positive by then and have immunity. But the other half will still be at risk. If we had rapid universal testing and serological testing (blood tests for post-illness immunity), then maybe you could cobble something together. But, heck, we can't even buy toilet paper or hand sanitizer. How are we going to get universal testing up and running by summer/fall. Ugh. As for shutting down the entire economy, that's not happening now. There are huge swaths of the economy shut down, but there are many industries that continue to hum. We're definitely going to have to radically transform the economy over the next year -- distance education, telemedicine, work from home, distance working, etc. It's possible to maintain safety in a variety of industries -- grocery stores, construction work, etc. Unfortunately, sports are not conducive to safe practices. Football players spit and sweat and slobber all over each other. So do basketball players. And just about every sport, except maybe tennis and/or golf. Additionally, if a coronavirus outbreak hits your team and 20% of the team falls severely ill and two to four players die, who's liable. Don't think the legal risk will go unnoticed by administrators. You don't think a spate of dead athletes at major universities across the country won't trigger one of the biggest class action lawsuits ever? Think again. Look, I'm not trying to be a negative Nellie or an outright @sshole. Just seems that way. I'm just thinking through this logically and have come to the conclusion that there are no good answers and that the path forward is going to be absolute h*ll. You're just not looking at this realistically. Doing what you suggest would literally live millions homeless and starving. Yeah, there are many industries that continue to hum - but almost half of the economy has almost completely stopped. That is unsustainable. So is social distancing on a long term basis. Telemedicine doesn't work. Most jobs can't be done from home. The service industry - which probably makes up half of our economy, can't be done under these guidelines. Life is a risk. Getting in your car and driving is a risk. There are no sure bets. We cannot hide forever. We cannot hide from every serious virus that comes along. We need to learn how to deal with them and live with them. People MUST interact. You want to hide, go ahead. I'm playing it safe for now, as will my family. But come July it's going to be time to get back on track. My job is a lot harder working from home. I feel like I'm in jail. A lot of other people feel the same way. We need to get out and interact as human beings. Short term - lockdown. Stay home. Don't get close to other people. Long term - wash your hands more often. Quarantine people who get sick earlier on in the curve and isolate the people who have been in contact with them. React more quickly, have plans in place to reduce the number of people exposed. But we can't hide from life forever. It will kill the economy and kill our spirit as human beings. Lockdowns like this and shutdowns of entire industries can only work if temporary, short term measures. Otherwise, as I said previously, the cure will be even worse than the disease.
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 19:46:34 GMT -8
Also... "99% of musicians today make 95% of their money on touring" I call b.s. on that unless you have some valid citations to substantiate such numbers. But further, if something close to those numbers is true, then the music industry will evolve. More concerts via StageIt, YouTube PPV, etc. It's change. Painful or revolutionary, change itself is agnostic. I'm a musician. I ran a record store for 8 years. I know the music industry. I'm still very aware of what's going on. CD and download sales are down about 75% from 10 years ago, and 10 years ago they were lower than they had been 10 years prior to that. Downloading and then streaming killed sales. And streaming doesn't pay $#!+. Musicians from the 80's and 90's are usually in multiple bands because they need to tour as much as possible since that's their primary source of income. See my post above. The change you're talking about would be a disaster, not just for musicians or people in service industries, but for everyone. We have to learn to deal with these viruses in more effective ways than just hiding. That's what we have to do this time, but I'm not willing to condemn millions to homelessness and starvation because some people are afraid (whether it's fear of movie theaters, restaurants, SPORTING EVENTS, or whatever). Life must go on, and we must live it, not hide from it.
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 19:52:24 GMT -8
FYI... FYI, I have made an executive decision to move this thread back to the Aztec/MWC Sports forum.
It IS sports related. Try to keep sports tied in to your comments on that discussion. There is a more general discussion under the Health/Insurance forum for broader COVID-19 discussion.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Apr 5, 2020 20:03:32 GMT -8
FYI... FYI, I have made an executive decision to move this thread back to the Aztec/MWC Sports forum. It IS sports related. Try to keep sports tied in to your comments on that discussion. There is a more general discussion under the Health/Insurance forum for broader COVID-19 discussion.
|
|
|
Post by longtimebooster on Apr 5, 2020 20:42:39 GMT -8
You're just not looking at this realistically. Doing what you suggest would literally live millions homeless and starving. I think you're confused. I'm not suggesting anything. And I really don't have a clear idea on what is about to happen or where we're really headed as a country and an economy. But I do know it is going to be epically bad. If it all ended tomorrow, it would be one of the worst economic events in the past century, never mind the human toll. I'm not calling for everyone to shelter in place for the next 18 months. But what I am saying, based on logic and reason, that there is little chance that sporting events and sports leagues will resume prior to January '21 or even later. Yeah, there are many industries that continue to hum - but almost half of the economy has almost completely stopped. That is unsustainable. So is social distancing on a long term basis. Telemedicine doesn't work. Most jobs can't be done from home. The service industry - which probably makes up half of our economy, can't be done under these guidelines. Actually, the service industry -- media, telecommunications, technology, finance, et. al. -- makes up over two-thirds of the economy. And much of it can be done remotely, as we're about to discover. Life is a risk. Getting in your car and driving is a risk. There are no sure bets. We cannot hide forever. We cannot hide from every serious virus that comes along. We need to learn how to deal with them and live with them. People MUST interact. You want to hide, go ahead. I'm playing it safe for now, as will my family. But come July it's going to be time to get back on track. My job is a lot harder working from home. I feel like I'm in jail. A lot of other people feel the same way. We need to get out and interact as human beings. Short term - lockdown. Stay home. Don't get close to other people. Long term - wash your hands more often. Quarantine people who get sick earlier on in the curve and isolate the people who have been in contact with them. React more quickly, have plans in place to reduce the number of people exposed. I admire your determination, but are you really going to send your kids to school if there's a major virus outbreak in, say, October or November? Or are you going to go into an office building where 20 people were recently infected and five died? Didn't think so. Yes, there's risk, but there's also being smart. Otherwise, as I said previously, the cure will be even worse than the disease. Actually, if you're one of the unlucky ones who dies from this disease, then you'll be dead and the disease will in fact be worse than the cure (which, unfortunately, won't have arrived in time for you.) Now, having said all that, yes, I agree, this is a tragedy of unimaginable scope and scale. And we as a country should be attacking it with everything we've got. It should be like one of those sci-fi movies where aliens are about to attack the Earth, and suddenly it's all hands on deck. But as a country, we're stumbling and bumbling out of the gate. There should be a massive Manhattan Project going on right now on several fronts, 1) testing, tracking and tracing every single coronavirus-infected person in the U.S. and locking them down until they're no longer an active vector for this disease. 2) Conduct serological tests on everyone who has been confirmed to have had the disease, certify them, and get them back into the workforce, immediately. 3) Conduct a globally coordinated 24/7 search for a reliable vaccine. Every article/interview I've read on the topic states that this process takes 12 to 18 months. That's unacceptable. I'm sure if you'd have asked the Manhattan Project scientist how long it was going to take them to develop The Bomb, they'd have said 10 to 20 years. But instead, the U.S. threw billions of dollars and over 130,000 people at it, and developed working nuclear bombs in under 3 years. We need to do the same with the COVID-19 vaccine. 12 to 18 months is simply unacceptable. The timeline needs to be shaved down to 4 to 6 months. Period. Toss the red tape out the window. Just get it done. It's really our only hope of getting out of this without sending the planet into the Dark Ages.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 7:18:55 GMT -8
I take it by a handful of some of the responses that some people are well off and this horrible situation isn't effecting them like the average American that's about to lose everything. Sports and entertainment are a huge part of the economy. Think about how many employees work in those industries. If this continues to go on for months or into next year, the U.S. economy may not recover. The federal government can't just keep writing checks when it's already 22 trillion in debt and climbing. Let's hope some infectious disease scientists or any health officials come up with a vaccine or a cure real soon. Because the world is also in trouble along with the U.S.
|
|
|
Post by couldashoulda on Apr 6, 2020 7:51:46 GMT -8
I take it by a handful of some of the responses that some people are well off and this horrible situation isn't effecting them like the average American that's about to lose everything. Sports and entertainment are a huge part of the economy. Think about how many employees work in those industries. If this continues to go on for months or into next year, the U.S. economy may not recover. The federal government can't just keep writing checks when it's already 22 trillion in debt and climbing. Let's hope some infections disease scientists or any health officials come up with a vaccine or a cure real soon. Because the world is also in trouble along with the U.S. www.businessinsider.com/inovio-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-starts-in-philadelphia-kansas-city-2020-4Corporate HQ is in Philadelphia, but their R & D division is right here in San Diego.
|
|
|
Post by aztecforlife2006 on Apr 6, 2020 7:53:36 GMT -8
There doesn’t need to be a vaccine for the world to get back to “normal”. Just better testing to identify who has it faster and confirmed treatment. Just like nobody worries about going out and catching the common cold even though there is no cure for it.
|
|
|
Post by laaztec on Apr 6, 2020 8:21:19 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 6, 2020 9:49:24 GMT -8
There will most definitely be a 2020-2021 College Basketball season. And most likely there will be a 2020 College Football season.
This thing will peak in the U.S. in the next 4 weeks. In 3 months it will be relatively safe to have the players practice. In 5 months it will be relatively safe for crowds to come to the games. Now, maybe handshakes and high fives will be out, but we'll be able to go to the games.
And I saw a news report where a doctor combined a malaria drug with zinc and 100% of his patients improved not within days, but within 12 hours. (They weren't 100% better, but they showed significant improvement.) There will be an effective treatment by July - effective enough that life will start getting back to normal, including having sporting events.
|
|
|
Post by junior on Apr 6, 2020 10:24:19 GMT -8
SMFH
|
|
|
Post by aztecjake on Apr 6, 2020 10:38:48 GMT -8
There will most definitely be a 2020-2021 College Basketball season. And most likely there will be a 2020 College Football season. This thing will peak in the U.S. in the next 4 weeks. In 3 months it will be relatively safe to have the players practice. In 5 months it will be relatively safe for crowds to come to the games. Now, maybe handshakes and high fives will be out, but we'll be able to go to the games. And I saw a news report where a doctor combined a malaria drug with zinc and 100% of his patients improved not within days, but within 12 hours. (They weren't 100% better, but they showed significant improvement.) There will be an effective treatment by July - effective enough that life will start getting back to normal, including having sporting events. There is another drug that is FDA approved for parasitic infections that has demonstrated convincing results in the lab (in vitro) against SARS-CoV-2. It is called Ivermectin, and yields promise that a cure is on the horizon. Once hot weather hits the nation, I believe the number of cases will drop dramatically. I have high hopes for a football season, fingers crossed, season tickets renewed.
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Apr 6, 2020 15:56:14 GMT -8
Moderator, can we PLEASE shut this thread down or move it to another location? All we're getting is a wide array of opinions about what they've read, not what they really know. That might be ok when it's sports related but the Virus is just too much of an all-encompassing situation. Can't we get away from it for a little while here please?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 16:05:58 GMT -8
Moderator, can we PLEASE shut this thread down or move it to another location? All we're getting is a wide array of opinions about what they've read, not what they really know. That might be ok when it's sports related but the Virus is just too much of an all-encompassing situation. Can't we get away from it for a little while here please? One mod moved it and another one brought it back. This how it began on the other thread that shouldn't have been here either. Put this in the politics section and you would lose about 95 percent of these posts and opinions. 🙄
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 6, 2020 16:13:42 GMT -8
Moderator, can we PLEASE shut this thread down or move it to another location? All we're getting is a wide array of opinions about what they've read, not what they really know. That might be ok when it's sports related but the Virus is just too much of an all-encompassing situation. Can't we get away from it for a little while here please? I moved the comments that had zero sports content. This thread is for COVID-19 and how it is impacting the sports world. Comments should be tied in to sports or posted on the topic under the Health Care subforum. aztecmesa.proboards.com/thread/61566/joe-right-worry-coronavirus
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 16:24:40 GMT -8
Moderator, can we PLEASE shut this thread down or move it to another location? All we're getting is a wide array of opinions about what they've read, not what they really know. That might be ok when it's sports related but the Virus is just too much of an all-encompassing situation. Can't we get away from it for a little while here please? I moved the comments that had zero sports content. This thread is for COVID-19 and how it is impacting the sports world. Comments should be tied in to sports or posted on the topic under the Health Care subforum. aztecmesa.proboards.com/thread/61566/joe-right-worry-coronavirusYou do realize that sports can become political. And that's exactly what's happening here. Again!!
|
|
|
Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 6, 2020 16:26:30 GMT -8
You do realize that sports can become political. And that's exactly what's happening here. Again!! Of course, and what I'm saying is that unless the comment ties them together it doesn't belong on this thread. There is a thread for a more general impact of COVID-19. This thread is solely for how it's impacting sports. Now that can be tied to politics - but it has to be sports based.
|
|