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Post by aztecking on Jan 21, 2020 9:52:03 GMT -8
I'm hoping for undefeated and assuming Gonzaga will stumble at least once. My question is, what happens if we stumble once? Will we get hammered in the rankings? We would then find out if the pollsters believe in us, or simply have us ranked so high due to the undefeated record. In my thinking if we lose 0 then we’ll be a 1 seed. 1 loss and we’ll be a 2 seed. 2 losses then we’ll be a 3 seed.
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Post by aztecdan8 on Jan 21, 2020 10:22:54 GMT -8
It more depends on Gonzaga and Oregon. If both us and Gonzaga win out, we would either be a 2 in the west or 1 in other region, likely Midwest.
If we win out and Gonzaga loses 1, coin toss to above or us as 1. If the Zags lose 2 and we win out, we are the 1 in the west.
If we lose 2, it will depend on Oregon. If the Ducks lose 2-3-4 more, which I think is likely, I think we can lose 2 and still be a 2 in the west.
If we are healthy other than Nate’s situation, I like our chances to win in every game until the NCAA and to the Sweet 16. Then it will likely be more about matchups.
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Post by sdsuball on Jan 21, 2020 10:49:49 GMT -8
It more depends on Gonzaga and Oregon. If both us and Gonzaga win out, we would either be a 2 in the west or 1 in other region, likely Midwest. If we win out and Gonzaga loses 1, coin toss to above or us as 1. If the Zags lose 2 and we win out, we are the 1 in the west. If we lose 2, it will depend on Oregon. If the Ducks lose 2-3-4 more, which I think is likely, I think we can lose 2 and still be a 2 in the west. If we are healthy other than Nate’s situation, I like our chances to win in every game until the NCAA and to the Sweet 16. Then it will likely be more about matchups. If Gonzaga and SDSU win out, we will be in different brackets 100%. No matter what, if we win out we are a 1 seed. The probability of both of us winning out has to be extremely low, and would give the selection committee an extremely difficult choice of who to put in the West. Gonzaga is better then us without Mensah for sure, but still - undefeated season is such a compelling story line, and I would say that Gonzaga and SDSU's wins/losses are close to even. One notable difference, however, is SDSU's neutral and road wins. SDSU won two neutral wins in Vegas this year, where SDSU is very comfortable and our fans travel, and one neutral win in the Staples Center in what was basically a home game for SDSU. The analytics overvalue these wins in that sense - and frankly I have no idea why Utah would agree to play us in the Staples Center as opposed to a city like Vegas that is in between SLC and SD. Still, would the committee deny an undefeated team with 3 Q1 wins a 1 seed in their own region??
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Post by sdsuball on Jan 21, 2020 11:10:33 GMT -8
If SDSU has a healthy Mensah, we are among a handful of teams in the country capable of winning it all (Gonzaga, Duke, Baylor, Kansas, and a few others). SDSU without a healthy Mensah is going to really need to get the right matchups past the Sweet 16, and would need things to line up just right to beat Gonzaga with their size unless we have our bigs healthy. We haven't really played in many hostile venues this year - just at BYU and at Utah State. From that perspective, playing in the West bracket would be really nice - we have not played a single game this year East of the Rocky Mountains. The most important thing is for our bigs to get healthy. We need contributions from a combination of N Mensah, Narain and J Mensah to win or hold even on the boards against other top teams in the country. It is fine if N Mensah isn't back until the Elite 8 or Final 4 if Narain and J Mensah can stay healthy. Especially Narain - I was extremely impressed with his play against Utah State. His physicality in setting screens and getting boards was huge at the end of that game for us. I get that Wetzell is a monster on the boards right now, but there is only so much that one player can do when playing stacked teams deep in the tournament - and it would be nice for him to play more minutes at the 4.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Jan 21, 2020 11:41:52 GMT -8
I'd give my left nut to be 1 seed anywhere! What does the banner look like for getting a 1-seed?
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Post by azdick on Jan 21, 2020 12:01:18 GMT -8
The seed is less important than where we play, and we NEED to play in Sacto the first weekend. That would be an Aztec home game.
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Post by DeeMoney on Jan 21, 2020 12:04:43 GMT -8
The seed is less important than where we play, and we NEED to play in Sacto the first weekend. That would be an Aztec home game. With the pod system that they use now, we would be in Sacramento first weekend regardless of being a 1 or 2 seed.
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Post by Motown Monty on Jan 21, 2020 12:14:43 GMT -8
I've never been to an NCAA Tournament game that SDSU played in, but it's been on my bucket list for years. The way March Madness is set up makes it impossible to plan a trip. You don't know where (or if) you'll be playing until Sunday before. So with that said I am crossing my fingers for an SDSU Sweet 16 in LA. There's nothing that would stop me from going to that game and the potential Elite 8 game that followed. Well, it is almost a certainty that the Aztecs will open in Sacramento. Barring a complete meltdown they'll likely be at worst a 4-Seed which would mean they're still a "protected" and would play in the pod closest to home (Sacramento).
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Post by mactec on Jan 21, 2020 12:27:50 GMT -8
I've never been to an NCAA Tournament game that SDSU played in, but it's been on my bucket list for years. The way March Madness is set up makes it impossible to plan a trip. You don't know where (or if) you'll be playing until Sunday before. So with that said I am crossing my fingers for an SDSU Sweet 16 in LA. There's nothing that would stop me from going to that game and the potential Elite 8 game that followed. Well, it is almost a certainty that the Aztecs will open in Sacramento. Barring a complete meltdown they'll likely be at worst a 4-Seed which would mean they're still a "protected" and would play in the pod closest to home (Sacramento). I believe only the 1 seeds get a say in their 1st round location: www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madnessI could be wrong but it doesn't say that the top 4 seeds (top 16 teams) get input on their 1st weekend games.
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Post by Motown Monty on Jan 21, 2020 13:47:56 GMT -8
Well, it is almost a certainty that the Aztecs will open in Sacramento. Barring a complete meltdown they'll likely be at worst a 4-Seed which would mean they're still a "protected" and would play in the pod closest to home (Sacramento). I believe only the 1 seeds get a say in their 1st round location: www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madnessI could be wrong but it doesn't say that the top 4 seeds (top 16 teams) get input on their 1st weekend games. Never said anything about teams having any "input" as to where they are placed. With regard to placement of Top 4 seeds in the second/third round pods it is my understanding that the committee allows these teams every opportunity to play as close as possible to their home, or are at least protected from potential home-crowd disadvantage in the second round. There are exceptions based on true seed list orders but this is the idea behind "protecting" the Top 4 seed lines.
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Post by uncledougy on Jan 21, 2020 18:17:12 GMT -8
All depends on the path....really doesn’t matter which seed you get if the path to the final four has favorable matchups all the way. Basketball really isn't my sport. Nevertheless, this season has been thrilling and the poise with which our guys play is inspiring. One would assume playing in the West would enhance the prospects of a greater turnout of Aztecs fans for Sweet 16 games held in Los Angeles as opposed to being in the East bracket and playing such games in New York but maybe I'm uninformed about how much that might matter? It may have an impact, but tickets to the regionals are usually done by lottery if I remember correctly. Certainly more Aztec fans would apply but not sure it would matter. I am also not sure of each schools allotment, i would assume the allotment in LA would be filled easily, not sure about the other regions. So you may have a point. I personally don’t really care where they play, I just care about who they play. If going to New Jersey means avoiding a game against Gonzaga for a game against say Butler....I chose what the “better path” would be. Of course anything can happen in any game.
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