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Post by reggie1234 on Dec 22, 2013 17:10:54 GMT -8
OK, are there any statistitians who would like to give the odds on the Chargers making the playoffs? Show your work please. Here is what has to happen in week 17: SD beats KC @ SD
Miami loses to Buffalo @ Miami
Baltimore loses to Cincy @ Cincy
If these three outcomes come true we are in. Serious responses only please.  |
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Post by reggie1234 on Dec 22, 2013 18:32:21 GMT -8
Well, since nobody is jumping in I will give it a shot. A 3 team parlay pays 6 to 1 odds, so the chance of all three games going our way are 16.67%. This does not factor in the odds or money line of each game. When I find out the money line of these three games I can narrow it down further. In summmary, it doesn't look very favorable for the Bolts to make the playoffs.  |
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Post by jhonka34 on Dec 22, 2013 22:30:40 GMT -8
Miami lost to Buffalo today. They have Jersey Jets at home next weekend.
KC has nothing to play for as Den won division and no potential six-seeds can catch them. Cincy can still jockey for seeding. A win and Pats loss gets them the bye, a loss and a Colts win drops them to 4-seed against KC. Cincy and Indy play the early game and NE plays the late game so other game results will not alter their motivations. Jets are eliminated from the playoffs but could still be playing for Ryan's job or even their own jobs. Or even just to knock Miami out of the playoffs.
That Baltimore-Cincy game should be great though. Both teams have a lot to play for and their previous game this season went to OT. Cincy also has the edge being at home.
Anyway the odds are roughly whatever the odds are of Miami losing at home. Probably around 35%. Shame is that you can pick one of the losses this season for the Chargers (in games they should've won) and they are in the drivers seat.
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Post by reggie1234 on Dec 23, 2013 0:27:45 GMT -8
Miami lost to Buffalo today. They have Jersey Jets at home next weekend. KC has nothing to play for as Den won division and no potential six-seeds can catch them. Cincy can still jockey for seeding. A win and Pats loss gets them the bye, a loss and a Colts win drops them to 4-seed against KC. Cincy and Indy play the early game and NE plays the late game so other game results will not alter their motivations. Jets are eliminated from the playoffs but could still be playing for Ryan's job or even their own jobs. Or even just to knock Miami out of the playoffs. That Baltimore-Cincy game should be great though. Both teams have a lot to play for and their previous game this season went to OT. Cincy also has the edge being at home. Anyway the odds are roughly whatever the odds are of Miami losing at home. Probably around 35%. Shame is that you can pick one of the losses this season for the Chargers (in games they should've won) and they are in the drivers seat. Sorry, I meant NY Jets @ Miami although I still stand my ground that all 3 games I listed must work out in the Chargers favor. I heard on the news tonight the odds are actually around 10 percent of that happening. Thanks for your input. PS If we only would have won that Washington game!!!!! |
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Post by Aztec89 on Dec 23, 2013 6:08:08 GMT -8
The odds are 100%
I believe that we will win.
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Post by retiredaztec on Dec 23, 2013 8:19:26 GMT -8
OK, are there any statistitians who would like to give the odds on the Chargers making the playoffs? Show your work please. Here is what has to happen in week 17: SD beats KC @ SD
Miami loses to Buffalo @ Miami
Baltimore loses to Cincy @ Cincy
If these three outcomes come true we are in. Serious responses only please. The Chefs have come crashing down to reality the last month. How motivated they are to extend their losing streak on Sunday remains to be seen. And though his numbers still look good, you still have Alex Smith at QB. As always, we shall see. The fact the Chargers will end up no worse than five hundred is better than I could have even expected, (I looked at 7-9 as BEST possible scenario). Personally, I'm still amused by the drama that could unfold in 2014. Lots of Charger gear around these parts, (SLC), due to both #32 and the Ute QB Alum. If the Chargers continue to move in a positive direction next year under Coach McCoy and Coach Whittingham's desperate move doesn't save his job, I still see Utah courting the current Charger's HC. Again, why not? Better facility, stronger community support, you KNOW where the team will be playing in five years and unless you're Alex Rodriguez, how much money do you need? Especially in Utah. (Anybody that still thinks the NFL is a step up from College just isn't doing the numbers. Just ask Nick Saban). |
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Post by La Mesa Aztec on Dec 25, 2013 21:50:34 GMT -8
Ignoring the possibility of ties, and assuming each game is a pure toss up, the odds are 12.5%. With 3 games, there are 8 different outcome combinations, or 2 to the 3rd power. San Diego, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all winning is one of those combinations making the odds 1 in 8 or 12.5%.
Another way to look at it is San Diego, Buffalo and Cincinnati each have a 50% likelihood of winning (with the above assumptions). The likelihood of all 3 happening would be .5 to the 3rd power or .125 or 12.5%.
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Post by reggie1234 on Dec 28, 2013 22:09:39 GMT -8
Ignoring the possibility of ties, and assuming each game is a pure toss up, the odds are 12.5%. With 3 games, there are 8 different outcome combinations, or 2 to the 3rd power. San Diego, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all winning is one of those combinations making the odds 1 in 8 or 12.5%. Another way to look at it is San Diego, Buffalo and Cincinnati each have a 50% likelihood of winning (with the above assumptions). The likelihood of all 3 happening would be .5 to the 3rd power or .125 or 12.5%. Good analysis La Mesa Aztec. I hope it comes true! Thanks............ |
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Post by azson on Dec 29, 2013 7:56:25 GMT -8
Ignoring the possibility of ties, and assuming each game is a pure toss up, the odds are 12.5%. With 3 games, there are 8 different outcome combinations, or 2 to the 3rd power. San Diego, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all winning is one of those combinations making the odds 1 in 8 or 12.5%. Another way to look at it is San Diego, Buffalo and Cincinnati each have a 50% likelihood of winning (with the above assumptions). The likelihood of all 3 happening would be .5 to the 3rd power or .125 or 12.5%. Good analysis La Mesa Aztec. I hope it comes true! Thanks............ Not sure I want to see it come true. After watching them bumble through the first half against the Oakland "stinkin " Raiders, I remember thinking, "this team would get trounced in the playoffs." Then again, they'd be on the road the entie playoffs where they've beaten Denand KC, so who knows? |
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Post by azson on Dec 29, 2013 7:56:40 GMT -8
Ignoring the possibility of ties, and assuming each game is a pure toss up, the odds are 12.5%. With 3 games, there are 8 different outcome combinations, or 2 to the 3rd power. San Diego, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all winning is one of those combinations making the odds 1 in 8 or 12.5%. Another way to look at it is San Diego, Buffalo and Cincinnati each have a 50% likelihood of winning (with the above assumptions). The likelihood of all 3 happening would be .5 to the 3rd power or .125 or 12.5%. Good analysis La Mesa Aztec. I hope it comes true! Thanks............ Not sure I want to see it come true. After watching them bumble through the first half against the Oakland "stinkin " Raiders, I remember thinking, "this team would get trounced in the playoffs." Then again, they'd be on the road the entie playoffs where they've beaten Denand KC, so who knows? |
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Post by azson on Dec 29, 2013 7:57:34 GMT -8
Good analysis La Mesa Aztec. I hope it comes true! Thanks............ Not sure I want to see it come true. After watching them bumble through the first half against the Oakland "stinkin " Raiders, I remember thinking, "this team would get trounced in the playoffs." Then again, they'd be on the road the entie playoffs where they've beaten Denand KC, so who knows? Damn phone... |
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Post by 78aztec82 on Dec 29, 2013 13:31:33 GMT -8
All that's left is to win the game, thanks for laying eggs Miami and Baltimore!
Sent from my DROID RAZR using proboards
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Post by oc74aztec on Dec 29, 2013 14:37:30 GMT -8
All that's left is to win the game, thanks for laying eggs Miami and Baltimore! Sent from my DROID RAZR using proboards Now I'm getting frustrated watching our Chargers trying to avoid laying an egg against the Kansas City bench players. With 1:07 left in the first half, we're down 21-14. Nothing is ever easy for any San Diego teams. |
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Post by La Mesa Aztec on Dec 29, 2013 14:56:50 GMT -8
Ignoring the possibility of ties, and assuming each game is a pure toss up, the odds are 12.5%. With 3 games, there are 8 different outcome combinations, or 2 to the 3rd power. San Diego, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all winning is one of those combinations making the odds 1 in 8 or 12.5%. Another way to look at it is San Diego, Buffalo and Cincinnati each have a 50% likelihood of winning (with the above assumptions). The likelihood of all 3 happening would be .5 to the 3rd power or .125 or 12.5%. Good analysis La Mesa Aztec. I hope it comes true! Thanks............ Thanks, except I screwed up and included Buffalo when it should have been NY Jets. Numbers don't change. The Chargers looked slow in the first half. I hope McCoy gave them a serious ass chewing. |
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Post by 78aztec82 on Dec 29, 2013 15:24:01 GMT -8
All that's left is to win the game, thanks for laying eggs Miami and Baltimore! Sent from my DROID RAZR using proboards Now I'm getting frustrated watching our Chargers trying to avoid laying an egg against the Kansas City bench players. With 1:07 left in the first half, we're down 21-14. Nothing is ever easy for any San Diego teams. KC adds to their second stringer lead and the Chargers can't mount a drive? Are you kidding me? Sent from my DROID RAZR using proboards |
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Post by junior on Dec 29, 2013 16:16:36 GMT -8
If the Aztecs were in the NFL … they'd be the Chargers.
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Post by 78aztec82 on Dec 29, 2013 16:49:02 GMT -8
That was close. You just gotta win in the NFL, there are no style points. Next stop, Cincinnati!
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Post by Deja Vu U Monty on Dec 29, 2013 18:09:59 GMT -8
I love hearing all the pundits on the boards saying Cincy will blow us away. I used to think that years ago against the Pats and then the Jets. Yeah, right. What a foolish thought. On any given day.....
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Post by johneaztec on Dec 29, 2013 18:49:14 GMT -8
I think the Chargers absolutely have a good chance to beat Cincy, then win in New England. I like their chances against these teams.
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Post by aztecmusician on Dec 29, 2013 19:13:22 GMT -8
It's not unheard of for a wild card team to win the Super Bowl.
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