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Post by aztecryan on May 22, 2023 12:17:06 GMT -8
Wanted to get this thread out on an off day for the big league club, so here we go. I've heard a lot of misnomers (not just on here) that the farm system is completely depleted, there's no help available, no depth, etc. I wanted to clear up some of the mischaracterizations and clarify some of the realities, as well as highlight a couple of players that I think are worth mentioning that some may not be aware of.
First and foremost, no, it's not a top ten farm anymore. That should be expected, when you trade 35+ prospects and land Juan Soto, among others. The market cost to acquire a supreme talent does *not* reflect fair value/trade models, as you're just never going to properly weight a player of that caliber with prospects in return. However, that does NOT mean in any way that the farm is useless, lacks talent or impact depth. The gap between a top 15 farm system and a top 24 system is fairly negligible, as well as the usual caveat of "farm evaluations vary significantly." Do not take one and treat it as gospel.
Let's start with Samuel Zavala. Zavala was one of the youngest players in full-season ball last year, when he debuted for Lake Elsinore right after his 18th birthday. Across 141 plate appearances, he slashed .254/.355/.508 in 33 games. The Padres assigned him back to Elsinore this year, where he got off to a bit of a slow start early. However, in May, he has a .974 OPS. Zavala's found himself on to some top 100 lists and won't turn 19 until July.
Let's go up a level to Fort Wayne. First, Jairo Iriarte. The pitching development under the tutelage of new farm coordinator Rob Marcello is evident with Iriarte, who has always had stuff, but hasn't been able to harness it in games. Now 21, Iriarte has a 1.73 ERA with 39 strikeouts in just 26 innings this season. Fastball sits comfortably 95-96, touches 98-99, with a really good changeup and a solid breaking ball. He's one to monitor. Onward to someone who could be the first base/DH of the future in Nathan Martorella. Last year's fifth rounder out of Cal, Martorella has shown an advanced eye at the plate (24:26 walks to strikeouts) and plus power with the bat (Hit a go-ahead grand slam yesterday) in his first full season. I think there's a big league profile in there if he can continue to make strides up the organizational ladder.
Most of the impact talent on the farm is at the lower levels, which makes complete sense for the trades the Padres have made. There are three surefire top 100 prospects now in Salas, Merrill and Lesko. Robby Snelling has been terrific and could soon join them, as will Zavala. There's usable depth (even if it's not to the ludicrous level it was two years ago) and the Padres will sign the new #1 international signee in Leo de Vries in January. De Vries is actually *higher* than Salas was on at least one future value board. (Salas, by the way, has skyrocketed up to #37 on the FanGraphs big board and is by far the youngest player on the list.)
Bottom line: The farm isn't what it was a few years ago. They aren't 65-70 deep in projected 40-45 FV players. That's perfectly okay. The scouting and evaluations remain very, very strong. There's good people in the right places. They'll add another draft class here soon and another international class, headlined by De Vries in January. The farm is still in good shape. Good times are ahead.
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Post by aardvark on May 22, 2023 14:21:58 GMT -8
Wanted to get this thread out on an off day for the big league club, so here we go. I've heard a lot of misnomers (not just on here) that the farm system is completely depleted, there's no help available, no depth, etc. I wanted to clear up some of the mischaracterizations and clarify some of the realities, as well as highlight a couple of players that I think are worth mentioning that some may not be aware of. First and foremost, no, it's not a top ten farm anymore. That should be expected, when you trade 35+ prospects and land Juan Soto, among others. The market cost to acquire a supreme talent does *not* reflect fair value/trade models, as you're just never going to properly weight a player of that caliber with prospects in return. However, that does NOT mean in any way that the farm is useless, lacks talent or impact depth. The gap between a top 15 farm system and a top 24 system is fairly negligible, as well as the usual caveat of "farm evaluations vary significantly." Do not take one and treat it as gospel. Let's start with Samuel Zavala. Zavala was one of the youngest players in full-season ball last year, when he debuted for Lake Elsinore right after his 18th birthday. Across 141 plate appearances, he slashed .254/.355/.508 in 33 games. The Padres assigned him back to Elsinore this year, where he got off to a bit of a slow start early. However, in May, he has a .974 OPS. Zavala's found himself on to some top 100 lists and won't turn 19 until July. Let's go up a level to Fort Wayne. First, Jairo Iriarte. The pitching development under the tutelage of new farm coordinator Rob Marcello is evident with Iriarte, who has always had stuff, but hasn't been able to harness it in games. Now 21, Iriarte has a 1.73 ERA with 39 strikeouts in just 26 innings this season. Fastball sits comfortably 95-96, touches 98-99, with a really good changeup and a solid breaking ball. He's one to monitor. Onward to someone who could be the first base/DH of the future in Nathan Martorella. Last year's fifth rounder out of Cal, Martorella has shown an advanced eye at the plate (24:26 walks to strikeouts) and plus power with the bat (Hit a go-ahead grand slam yesterday) in his first full season. I think there's a big league profile in there if he can continue to make strides up the organizational ladder. Most of the impact talent on the farm is at the lower levels, which makes complete sense for the trades the Padres have made. There are three surefire top 100 prospects now in Salas, Merrill and Lesko. Robby Snelling has been terrific and could soon join them, as will Zavala. There's usable depth (even if it's not to the ludicrous level it was two years ago) and the Padres will sign the new #1 international signee in Leo de Vries in January. De Vries is actually *higher* than Salas was on at least one future value board. (Salas, by the way, has skyrocketed up to #37 on the FanGraphs big board and is by far the youngest player on the list.) Bottom line: The farm isn't what it was a few years ago. They aren't 65-70 deep in projected 40-45 FV players. That's perfectly okay. The scouting and evaluations remain very, very strong. There's good people in the right places. They'll add another draft class here soon and another international class, headlined by De Vries in January. The farm is still in good shape. Good times are ahead. Not only were the good times supposed to be ahead--they were supposed to be here right now. The Padres roster additions/extensions were supposed to continue the progress the team made last season. Instead, we are struggling to stay ahead of the Rockies in the NL West. The Padres are currently one of the biggest disappointments of the 2023 season.
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Post by aztecryan on May 22, 2023 14:48:07 GMT -8
Wanted to get this thread out on an off day for the big league club, so here we go. I've heard a lot of misnomers (not just on here) that the farm system is completely depleted, there's no help available, no depth, etc. I wanted to clear up some of the mischaracterizations and clarify some of the realities, as well as highlight a couple of players that I think are worth mentioning that some may not be aware of. First and foremost, no, it's not a top ten farm anymore. That should be expected, when you trade 35+ prospects and land Juan Soto, among others. The market cost to acquire a supreme talent does *not* reflect fair value/trade models, as you're just never going to properly weight a player of that caliber with prospects in return. However, that does NOT mean in any way that the farm is useless, lacks talent or impact depth. The gap between a top 15 farm system and a top 24 system is fairly negligible, as well as the usual caveat of "farm evaluations vary significantly." Do not take one and treat it as gospel. Let's start with Samuel Zavala. Zavala was one of the youngest players in full-season ball last year, when he debuted for Lake Elsinore right after his 18th birthday. Across 141 plate appearances, he slashed .254/.355/.508 in 33 games. The Padres assigned him back to Elsinore this year, where he got off to a bit of a slow start early. However, in May, he has a .974 OPS. Zavala's found himself on to some top 100 lists and won't turn 19 until July. Let's go up a level to Fort Wayne. First, Jairo Iriarte. The pitching development under the tutelage of new farm coordinator Rob Marcello is evident with Iriarte, who has always had stuff, but hasn't been able to harness it in games. Now 21, Iriarte has a 1.73 ERA with 39 strikeouts in just 26 innings this season. Fastball sits comfortably 95-96, touches 98-99, with a really good changeup and a solid breaking ball. He's one to monitor. Onward to someone who could be the first base/DH of the future in Nathan Martorella. Last year's fifth rounder out of Cal, Martorella has shown an advanced eye at the plate (24:26 walks to strikeouts) and plus power with the bat (Hit a go-ahead grand slam yesterday) in his first full season. I think there's a big league profile in there if he can continue to make strides up the organizational ladder. Most of the impact talent on the farm is at the lower levels, which makes complete sense for the trades the Padres have made. There are three surefire top 100 prospects now in Salas, Merrill and Lesko. Robby Snelling has been terrific and could soon join them, as will Zavala. There's usable depth (even if it's not to the ludicrous level it was two years ago) and the Padres will sign the new #1 international signee in Leo de Vries in January. De Vries is actually *higher* than Salas was on at least one future value board. (Salas, by the way, has skyrocketed up to #37 on the FanGraphs big board and is by far the youngest player on the list.) Bottom line: The farm isn't what it was a few years ago. They aren't 65-70 deep in projected 40-45 FV players. That's perfectly okay. The scouting and evaluations remain very, very strong. There's good people in the right places. They'll add another draft class here soon and another international class, headlined by De Vries in January. The farm is still in good shape. Good times are ahead. Not only were the good times supposed to be ahead--they were supposed to be here right now. The Padres roster additions/extensions were supposed to continue the progress the team made last season. Instead, we are struggling to stay ahead of the Rockies in the NL West. The Padres are currently one of the biggest disappointments of the 2023 season. That really doesn't have much to do with the current farm system. Virtually all of their additions were big leaguers.
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Post by aardvark on May 22, 2023 15:05:30 GMT -8
Not only were the good times supposed to be ahead--they were supposed to be here right now. The Padres roster additions/extensions were supposed to continue the progress the team made last season. Instead, we are struggling to stay ahead of the Rockies in the NL West. The Padres are currently one of the biggest disappointments of the 2023 season. That really doesn't have much to do with the current farm system. Virtually all of their additions were big leaguers. True. Just mentioning the state of the franchise as a whole. Good times were ahead a few years back, with the great Padres farm system. Will Preller trade most of these as well? Will he even be here to trade them?
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Post by aztecryan on May 22, 2023 15:11:48 GMT -8
That really doesn't have much to do with the current farm system. Virtually all of their additions were big leaguers. True. Just mentioning the state of the franchise as a whole. Good times were ahead a few years back, with the great Padres farm system. Will Preller trade most of these as well? Will he even be here to trade them? Can we just not forget last year? A couple of games from the World Series is definitely "good." No. Yes.
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Post by aardvark on May 22, 2023 15:17:36 GMT -8
True. Just mentioning the state of the franchise as a whole. Good times were ahead a few years back, with the great Padres farm system. Will Preller trade most of these as well? Will he even be here to trade them? Can we just not forget last year? A couple of games from the World Series is definitely "good." No. Yes. No one is forgetting last year. We were also 30-17 at this point last year.
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Post by aztecryan on May 22, 2023 15:21:00 GMT -8
Can we just not forget last year? A couple of games from the World Series is definitely "good." No. Yes. No one is forgetting last year. We were also 30-17 at this point last year. I guess we'll have to give back our 47 game record trophy.
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Post by aardvark on May 22, 2023 15:23:22 GMT -8
No one is forgetting last year. We were also 30-17 at this point last year. I guess we'll have to give back our 47 game record trophy. Damn--it was such a great trophy.
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Post by aztecryan on May 22, 2023 15:24:40 GMT -8
I guess we'll have to give back our 47 game record trophy. Damn--it was such a great trophy. (These things really don't matter, as countless teams have proven by winning the World Series after being under .500)
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Post by aardvark on May 22, 2023 15:31:16 GMT -8
Damn--it was such a great trophy. (These things really don't matter, as countless teams have proven by winning the World Series after being under .500) Any of them have a historically low average with RISP?
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Post by aztecryan on May 22, 2023 15:34:07 GMT -8
(These things really don't matter, as countless teams have proven by winning the World Series after being under .500) Any of them have a historically low average with RISP? I'm guessing no, but I also don't think it's possible to maintain a .195 average in that category as a team for the whole season. Their current team average is also one of the worst in history.
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Post by aztecryan on May 25, 2023 19:38:04 GMT -8
Robby Snelling with another terrific outing tonight for the Storm. Five shutout innings, struck out five. Lowered his ERA to 1.14. Really excited to see him continue to grow now that he's a full-time baseball player.
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Post by aztecmusician on May 29, 2023 15:49:41 GMT -8
With the exception of Tatis, none of the recent heralded Padres prospects have done anything with the Padres. They get traded and go on to have success with other organizations, while most of the players they bring up from the farm hit .170 and look completely overmatched. The Padres are absolutely horrendous at evaluating younger players, probably the worst in the majors. Remember when they thought Taylor Trammell was the next Acuna?
Everyone in the starting lineup and pitching rotation came from somewhere else as an established MLB or Korean player. Just contrast that with the Dodgers or Dbacks, who routinely bring up guys from their farm systems who produce and stick in the majors for more than just a few days.
I’ve seen enough of Preller. He is a talentless hack who should be shown the door.
I miss the days when the farm system produced HOF talent (Winfield, Ozzie, Gwynn, Alomar) and not .170 hitting flops.
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Post by aztecryan on May 29, 2023 16:24:27 GMT -8
With the exception of Tatis, none of the recent heralded Padres prospects have done anything with the Padres. They get traded and go on to have success with other organizations, while most of the players they bring up from the farm hit .170 and look completely overmatched. The Padres are absolutely horrendous at evaluating younger players, probably the worst in the majors. Remember when they thought Taylor Trammell was the next Acuna? Everyone in the starting lineup and pitching rotation came from somewhere else as an established MLB or Korean player. Just contrast that with the Dodgers or Dbacks, who routinely bring up guys from their farm systems who produce and stick in the majors for more than just a few days. I’ve seen enough of Preller. He is a talentless hack who should be shown the door. I miss the days when the farm system produced HOF talent (Winfield, Ozzie, Gwynn, Alomar) and not .170 hitting flops. Holy inaccuracies, Batman.
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Post by sdsuball on May 29, 2023 23:28:12 GMT -8
With the exception of Tatis, none of the recent heralded Padres prospects have done anything with the Padres. They get traded and go on to have success with other organizations, while most of the players they bring up from the farm hit .170 and look completely overmatched. The Padres are absolutely horrendous at evaluating younger players, probably the worst in the majors. Remember when they thought Taylor Trammell was the next Acuna? Everyone in the starting lineup and pitching rotation came from somewhere else as an established MLB or Korean player. Just contrast that with the Dodgers or Dbacks, who routinely bring up guys from their farm systems who produce and stick in the majors for more than just a few days. I’ve seen enough of Preller. He is a talentless hack who should be shown the door. I miss the days when the farm system produced HOF talent (Winfield, Ozzie, Gwynn, Alomar) and not .170 hitting flops. Holy inaccuracies, Batman. Preller is really good at identifying talent actually. If you're going to critique him, go after him for some of the iffy trades that he's made (the second basemen from the Pirates, that was a bad trade, maybe the Nola trade, and.. we paid a steep price for Clev and Snell, maybe we overpaid - although the FA market for starting pitching was dry if I remember correctly, and we needed arms coming out of COVID)
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Post by sdsuball on May 29, 2023 23:39:11 GMT -8
Any thought to giving Rivas a callup? It would be nice to have a high OBP bat
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Post by johneaztec on May 30, 2023 7:13:54 GMT -8
With the exception of Tatis, none of the recent heralded Padres prospects have done anything with the Padres. They get traded and go on to have success with other organizations, while most of the players they bring up from the farm hit .170 and look completely overmatched. The Padres are absolutely horrendous at evaluating younger players, probably the worst in the majors. Remember when they thought Taylor Trammell was the next Acuna? Everyone in the starting lineup and pitching rotation came from somewhere else as an established MLB or Korean player. Just contrast that with the Dodgers or Dbacks, who routinely bring up guys from their farm systems who produce and stick in the majors for more than just a few days. I’ve seen enough of Preller. He is a talentless hack who should be shown the door. I miss the days when the farm system produced HOF talent (Winfield, Ozzie, Gwynn, Alomar) and not .170 hitting flops. Holy inaccuracies, Batman. Nice!!! I'm a huge Adam West/Batman fan!!! Ok, how I see it is that Preller got us very close to the World Series last year, and we finally beat the Dodgers in the playoffs. Nobody would be bashing him right about now if we had a decent record, or playing much better. Having said that, we're not far out of the Wild Card spot. I'm not panicking right now. I'll do that at the half way point, if need be. I think if we can just get into the playoffs, we'll advance, and make another run. Let's see if we can turn this thing around.
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Post by aztecryan on May 30, 2023 7:57:07 GMT -8
Holy inaccuracies, Batman. Preller is really good at identifying talent actually. If you're going to critique him, go after him for some of the iffy trades that he's made (the second basemen from the Pirates, that was a bad trade, maybe the Nola trade, and.. we paid a steep price for Clev and Snell, maybe we overpaid - although the FA market for starting pitching was dry if I remember correctly, and we needed arms coming out of COVID) AM won't respond for days (if at all, considering his posts in other parts of this board) but that "talentless hack" used Robert Hassell, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, CJ Abrams and Jarlin Susana (all top two round draft picks or international signees) to trade for the best hitter of this generation. Considering the list of players he used, it's pretty clear he's 135 years old and has no idea how baseball has evolved since Robert Alomar, Dave Winfield and others retired a century ago. Regarding trades, you win some and you lose some. Musgrove deal was great, Darvish deal was great, Snell deal was fine (literally none of those guys have done much, Wilcox had TJ surgery and Patiño has struggled to stay healthy and productive)...When you trade an entire top 30 plus more, you're going to swing and miss on a few guys. "None of the recent heralded Padres have done anything with the club?" Well yeah, they were used to fill the roster with established pros, which is what teams in "win now" mode do and should do every time. The guys they've called up aren't premium prospects, they are filler pieces because you have established stars at the top of your lineup. Also, nobody on this planet thought Taylor Trammell was the next Acuña. Might be the funniest thing I've ever heard. Ryan Weathers looks like a bona fide MLB starter now with the changes made to his pitching arsenal. Steven Wilson has been one of the better relievers in the National League for 95% of the season, when he was driving for Uber a couple of years ago. Offensively is where they've struggled, but every single person in San Diego would have looked at the preseason lineup and taken it happily. At some point, the players have to produce a little bit.
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Post by aztecmusician on May 30, 2023 8:24:12 GMT -8
The Dodger rotation includes Kershaw, Urias, Gonsolin, May, Buehler….all terrific pitchers from their own system.
The Padre pitching prospects from the past few seasons just don’t measure up to that, if you think they do you are insane.
The Dodger position players….same thing. Players are promoted and they produce.
The Padres promote someone and they hit .170…..call it the Rizzo/Hedges syndrome. That’s why the SD lineup is loaded with free agents and traded for players, the guys they call up from their own system don’t produce, Tatis being the exception. The Padres farm system is overrated.
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Post by johneaztec on May 30, 2023 8:29:15 GMT -8
The Dodger rotation includes Kershaw, Urias, Gonsolin, May, Buehler….all terrific pitchers from their own system. The Padre pitching prospects from the past few seasons just don’t measure up to that, if you think they do you are insane. The Dodger position players….same thing. Players are promoted and they produce. The Padres promote someone and they hit .170…..call it the Rizzo/Hedges syndrome. That’s why the SD lineup is loaded with free agents and traded for players, the guys they call up from their system don’t produce, Tatis being the exception. The Padres farm system is overrated. It's true the Padres use their Farm System as trades for obtaining established players, a lot of the time. It worked for last year, although we didn't get the ultimate prize. We'll have to see if that formula works for this year, as well. It's still early. We can get into the playoffs, or still win the division.
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