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Post by aztecryan on Nov 6, 2022 19:26:43 GMT -8
On what planet? The team has three players in the top 20 in infield fly hit rate, was one of the lowest barrel percentage teams in baseball and that's not going to be solved by a few hundred at-bats from Josh Bell. Machado, Soto, Drury, Cronenworth - they all have HR power. I don't want to be the one to break this to you, but this is some really lazy analysis. Machado has been here and is a clear outlier for his slugging percentage at home. Drury's a career utility player who had a good season, buoyed by a very friendly ballpark in Cincinnati. His career high in home runs prior to 2022 was 16. Cronenworth doesn't slug, he's one of the infield popup guys I referenced earlier. There's a monumental difference between a guy who has power and a guy who can actually tap into it.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Nov 6, 2022 19:42:51 GMT -8
Machado, Soto, Drury, Cronenworth - they all have HR power. I don't want to be the one to break this to you, but this is some really lazy analysis. Machado has been here and is a clear outlier for his slugging percentage at home. Drury's a career utility player who had a good season, buoyed by a very friendly ballpark in Cincinnati. His career high in home runs prior to 2022 was 16. Cronenworth doesn't slug, he's one of the infield popup guys I referenced earlier. There's a monumental difference between a guy who has power and a guy who can actually tap into it. Cronenworth hits a fair amount of home runs. Give him 5 more feet his way and he'll hit more. We don't have anyone with a good batting average. You say we don't have sluggers? Fine, then throw out OPS and look at batting averages. Our guys are not good enough to manufacture runs the way the Padres did with Gwynn. We can't keep doing what we've been doing. Having guys who don't get enough hits to score and/or drive in runs doesn't work at Petco. Either you get guys who can get more hits, or you bring in the fences and make it a more hitter friendly park. This, 'doing neither' thing isn't going to get the Padres into the World Series. And since the attempt to get a bunch of singles hitters who can run hasn't worked, it's time to scrap that plan and bring in the fences and continue to get guys who can hit home runs.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 6, 2022 19:50:22 GMT -8
I don't want to be the one to break this to you, but this is some really lazy analysis. Machado has been here and is a clear outlier for his slugging percentage at home. Drury's a career utility player who had a good season, buoyed by a very friendly ballpark in Cincinnati. His career high in home runs prior to 2022 was 16. Cronenworth doesn't slug, he's one of the infield popup guys I referenced earlier. There's a monumental difference between a guy who has power and a guy who can actually tap into it. Cronenworth hits a fair amount of home runs. Give him 5 more feet his way and he'll hit more. We don't have anyone with a good batting average. You say we don't have sluggers? Fine, then throw out OPS and look at batting averages. Our guys are not good enough to manufacture runs the way the Padres did with Gwynn. We can't keep doing what we've been doing. Having guys who don't get enough hits to score and/or drive in runs doesn't work at Petco. Either you get guys who can get more hits, or you bring in the fences and make it a more hitter friendly park. This, 'doing neither' thing isn't going to get the Padres into the World Series. And since the attempt to get a bunch of singles hitters who can run hasn't worked, it's time to scrap that plan and bring in the fences and continue to get guys who can hit home runs. No, I'm not going to look at batting average. Think we've been down that road enough. You're looking at effect without finding a cause, which is flimsy at best. Bringing the fences in will not change anything. It's already been done a decade ago at Petco. Moving them in further won't make the ball travel longer distances when it isn't barreled. The culprit you're looking for isn't what you believe it to be.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Nov 6, 2022 20:02:00 GMT -8
Cronenworth hits a fair amount of home runs. Give him 5 more feet his way and he'll hit more. We don't have anyone with a good batting average. You say we don't have sluggers? Fine, then throw out OPS and look at batting averages. Our guys are not good enough to manufacture runs the way the Padres did with Gwynn. We can't keep doing what we've been doing. Having guys who don't get enough hits to score and/or drive in runs doesn't work at Petco. Either you get guys who can get more hits, or you bring in the fences and make it a more hitter friendly park. This, 'doing neither' thing isn't going to get the Padres into the World Series. And since the attempt to get a bunch of singles hitters who can run hasn't worked, it's time to scrap that plan and bring in the fences and continue to get guys who can hit home runs. No, I'm not going to look at batting average. Think we've been down that road enough. You're looking at effect without finding a cause, which is flimsy at best. Bringing the fences in will not change anything. It's already been done a decade ago at Petco. Moving them in further won't make the ball travel longer distances when it isn't barreled. The culprit you're looking for isn't what you believe it to be. So... What? Do nothing and just hope that things work themselves out? There has to be a strategy here. A plan to achieve this long elusive goal. The original plan for Petco was an abysmal failure. Hoping to get enough singles hitters who could actually hit for good average, get on base, and then have the guys behind them get hits and drive them in didn't work. Not even close. But our fences are too far out to have a power team unless we spend as much as the Dodgers. That isn't going to happen. So, what then? Keep the fences farther out than most parks and just hope that things work out? We don't have the power to hit enough home runs with the fences where they are to be dominant. We don't have guys who can hit for average (aka: get on base and drive in runs) to make the manufuctured runs thing work. So, what, then? What's your plan?
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 6, 2022 20:55:02 GMT -8
No, I'm not going to look at batting average. Think we've been down that road enough. You're looking at effect without finding a cause, which is flimsy at best. Bringing the fences in will not change anything. It's already been done a decade ago at Petco. Moving them in further won't make the ball travel longer distances when it isn't barreled. The culprit you're looking for isn't what you believe it to be. So... What? Do nothing and just hope that things work themselves out? There has to be a strategy here. A plan to achieve this long elusive goal. The original plan for Petco was an abysmal failure. Hoping to get enough singles hitters who could actually hit for good average, get on base, and then have the guys behind them get hits and drive them in didn't work. Not even close. But our fences are too far out to have a power team unless we spend as much as the Dodgers. That isn't going to happen. So, what then? Keep the fences farther out than most parks and just hope that things work out? We don't have the power to hit enough home runs with the fences where they are to be dominant. We don't have guys who can hit for average (aka: get on base and drive in runs) to make the manufuctured runs thing work. So, what, then? What's your plan? Change. The. Approach. It's *complicated.* Adapt to your ballpark. But before that, focus on getting the barrel to the baseball with efficiency. (It's that dreaded word that starts with an A that people hate)....Home runs aren't suppressed equally. Petco is harder on left handed pull hitters, for example. You can't have multiple guys in a lineup who can't hit middling velocity. The Padres were the worst team in baseball by run value against 96+ MPH...but they weren't exactly great at subpar velocity, either. Some fluky outcomes in that, obviously. But moving the fences in is stupid when you don't hit balls hard to begin with. There are just so many silly assumptions in your logic, it's the same song and dance as always. Don't you just feel compelled to actually research what you're complaining about? I know it's simpler just to be a sounding board, but "power" isn't a fix-all. You need organizational philosophy, you need bat path optimization, you need tailored gameplans against starters and relievers to put guys in positions to succeed. I don't know what "plan" you've referred to multiple times, but it's irrelevant because that ownership group isn't involved with this one. Objectives are vastly different, goals are vastly different, financial expenses are VASTLY different.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 7, 2022 8:49:57 GMT -8
Profar and Suarez both opt-out, as expected.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Nov 7, 2022 9:53:43 GMT -8
Profar and Suarez both opt-out, as expected. We need to re-sign them.
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Post by aardvark on Nov 7, 2022 10:56:30 GMT -8
Regarding the fences--it is interesting (to me, at least) that the Padres only list the OF dimensions in four places on the fence: at each foul pole, straightaway LF, and just to the right of CF. An oversight, or purposefully omitted?
It's an asymmetrical park, and it would be nice to see more dimensions posted on the OF wall.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 7, 2022 11:22:44 GMT -8
Regarding the fences--it is interesting (to me, at least) that the Padres only list the OF dimensions in four places on the fence: at each foul pole, straightaway LF, and just to the right of CF. An oversight, or purposefully omitted? It's an asymmetrical park, and it would be nice to see more dimensions posted on the OF wall. 390 and 396.
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Post by sdsuball on Nov 7, 2022 14:44:33 GMT -8
.87 park factor for singles at Petco vs. Road games, .7 for doubles, .52 for triples Petco is dead average for home runs at 1.0
It's got to be the marine layer in the colder baseball months that causes balls to hang in the air longer. Offense heats up at Petco in the summer.
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Post by aardvark on Nov 7, 2022 14:49:58 GMT -8
Regarding the fences--it is interesting (to me, at least) that the Padres only list the OF dimensions in four places on the fence: at each foul pole, straightaway LF, and just to the right of CF. An oversight, or purposefully omitted? It's an asymmetrical park, and it would be nice to see more dimensions posted on the OF wall. 390 and 396. I know the numbers. They should be posted on the fence.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 7, 2022 15:46:39 GMT -8
I know the numbers. They should be posted on the fence. Not something I've ever noticed, honestly.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 7, 2022 15:47:06 GMT -8
.87 park factor for singles at Petco vs. Road games, .7 for doubles, .52 for triples Petco is dead average for home runs at 1.0 It's got to be the marine layer in the colder baseball months that causes balls to hang in the air longer. Offense heats up at Petco in the summer. Offense heats up everywhere in the summer.
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Post by sdsuball on Nov 8, 2022 22:30:19 GMT -8
It seems really unlikely that the Padres are going to be able to make splashes in the FA market
How are the Padres going to find:
two starting pitchers, two relievers, one first baseman, one left fielder, and one catcher on the FA market (and still keep their payroll reasonable)? Example: 2 SP's 8MM per, 2 RP 3MM per, 1 1B 8MM per, 1 LF 8MM per, 1 C 3MM per
Total = 41MM added salary per year
That's adding middling SP's and RP's, middling 1B and LF (Myers and Drury let's just say), and Alfaro (or a catcher of his caliber)
Adding 41MM in the FA market is a 15MM increase over last year, which is reasonable. I'm struggling to see how they can be in play for any big names in FA. Maybe we need to make a Campusano trade happen to pick up a young, controllable starting pitcher - since they don't believe in Campusano as a catcher anymore.
The Padres as an organization desperately need a better balance of young, cheap players so that they can afford Tatis, Machado, Soto.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 8, 2022 22:31:47 GMT -8
It seems really unlikely that the Padres are going to be able to make splashes in the FA market How are the Padres going to find: two starting pitchers, two relievers, one first baseman, one left fielder, and one catcher on the FA market (and still keep their payroll reasonable)? Example: 2 SP's 8MM per, 2 RP 3MM per, 1 1B 8MM per, 1 LF 8MM per, 1 C 3MM per Total = 41MM added salary per year That's adding middling SP's and RP's, middling 1B and LF (Myers and Drury let's just say), and Alfaro (or a catcher of his caliber) Adding 41MM in the FA market is a 15MM increase over last year, which is reasonable. I'm struggling to see how they can be in play for any big names in FA. Maybe we need to make a Campusano trade happen to pick up a young, controllable starting pitcher - since they don't believe in Campusano as a catcher anymore. The Padres as an organization desperately need a better balance of young, cheap players so that they can afford Tatis, Machado, Soto. Huh?
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Post by sdsuball on Nov 8, 2022 22:46:26 GMT -8
It seems really unlikely that the Padres are going to be able to make splashes in the FA market How are the Padres going to find: two starting pitchers, two relievers, one first baseman, one left fielder, and one catcher on the FA market (and still keep their payroll reasonable)? Example: 2 SP's 8MM per, 2 RP 3MM per, 1 1B 8MM per, 1 LF 8MM per, 1 C 3MM per Total = 41MM added salary per year That's adding middling SP's and RP's, middling 1B and LF (Myers and Drury let's just say), and Alfaro (or a catcher of his caliber) Adding 41MM in the FA market is a 15MM increase over last year, which is reasonable. I'm struggling to see how they can be in play for any big names in FA. Maybe we need to make a Campusano trade happen to pick up a young, controllable starting pitcher - since they don't believe in Campusano as a catcher anymore. The Padres as an organization desperately need a better balance of young, cheap players so that they can afford Tatis, Machado, Soto. Huh? How much money do they have to spend in the FA market? What are the planning on doing with Campusano? Will they trade for a cheap controllable player to fill one of their roster holes? Will they be in play for any big names in FA?
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 8, 2022 22:54:10 GMT -8
How much money do they have to spend in the FA market? What are the planning on doing with Campusano? Will they trade for a cheap controllable player to fill one of their roster holes? Will they be in play for any big names in FA? Plenty. TBD. TBD. Yes.
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Post by sdsuball on Nov 8, 2022 23:27:18 GMT -8
How much money do they have to spend in the FA market? What are the planning on doing with Campusano? Will they trade for a cheap controllable player to fill one of their roster holes? Will they be in play for any big names in FA? Plenty. TBD. TBD. Yes. Senga, Bassitt? Rodon, DeGrom are expensive. No "need" for an ace with the Padres top 3. But if you're talking top-tier - those two guys are the top tier guys - and the Padres are looking for starting pitching... Abreu? Brantley? Rizzo? Contreras? Big power bats that should theoretically play well in Petco. They aren't on Judge... right?? No way to get him + resign Soto... unless there truly is no limit to Seidler's budget. Drury and Myers, maybe even Bell seem like decent value options but aren't top-tier of course.
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Post by aztecryan on Nov 8, 2022 23:29:56 GMT -8
Senga, Bassitt? Rodon, DeGrom are expensive. No "need" for an ace with the Padres top 3. But if you're talking top-tier - those two guys are the top tier guys - and the Padres are looking for starting pitching... Abreu? Brantley? Rizzo? Contreras? Big power bats that should theoretically play well in Petco. They aren't on Judge... right?? No way to get him + resign Soto... unless there truly is no limit to Seidler's budget. Drury and Myers, maybe even Bell seem like decent value options but aren't top-tier of course. Just way too early in the process. Still have in-house things to do.
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Post by junior on Nov 9, 2022 18:29:15 GMT -8
Tommy Pham will be available …
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