Draft.

[aztecryan]

Jul 19, 2022 1:15:57 GMT -8 sdsuball said:

Jul 18, 2022 9:22:21 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

It's not about who is ready "now" - Teams do not draft for organizational need. Not the NFL. Rocker's "closer" but his value is massively reduced if he's a bullpen arm and there's the matter of his arm slot that needs to be figured out as well. He fails a physical and then gets drafted higher the next year? Yeah, no thank you.

I think that you're really missing the point of why the Rangers drafted Rocker third.

In trades, players that are three years out from the majors, are worth less then prospects that are MLB ready that have the same floor/ceiling in the majors.

In trades, when teams look to pickup a bullpen arm or a bat at the deadline, they will trade more total value (in future prospect WAR), then the future WAR of the player that they are acquiring that's already playing in the majors.

That's why even though we got 8 WAR for a season of Kevin Brown, we gave up far more future WAR in the trade (I mean we gave up Derrek Lee).

That's why Rocker has a lower estimated career WAR then Lesko (I agree with you on that), but Rocker was taken third. The Rangers put a premium on Rocker's MLB readiness - not a preference - a premium price.

Guys like Rocker who can come in and immediately contribute to a playoff race out of the draft are few and far between - so it doesn't come up often - but it does happen from time to time.

That's not entirely true, unfortunately. The Rangers drafted Rocker so they could get a package deal at 109 with Brock Porter, a fellow Boras client and a package deal situation. Rocker allowed them to save money on the slot because he has no leverage to go back to school or the independent leagues, so they were able to get him for $2.3M under slot. It was the plan all along as they floated Porter down the board to cut costs - Happens in every draft.

Trades are completely different. When you draft a guy, there is an ultra-rare chance that he skips the minors and goes to the big leagues in the same season. Off memory, I can only think of a couple of times in recent history that it happened at all. And for a team that is going nowhere like Texas, Rocker has very little value this season as a bullpen arm. You're going to have to hope they fix his mechanics and reboot him next year as a starter, and that his arm can hold up. Odds are against it. It's the reason why he was ranked in the 40's.

[aztecryan]

Jul 19, 2022 6:58:42 GMT -8 johneaztec said:

Jul 19, 2022 1:15:57 GMT -8 sdsuball said:

I think that you're really missing the point of why the Rangers drafted Rocker third.

In trades, players that are three years out from the majors, are worth less then prospects that are MLB ready that have the same floor/ceiling in the majors.

In trades, when teams look to pickup a bullpen arm or a bat at the deadline, they will trade more total value (in future prospect WAR), then the future WAR of the player that they are acquiring that's already playing in the majors.

That's why even though we got 8 WAR for a season of Kevin Brown, we gave up far more future WAR in the trade (I mean we gave up Derrek Lee).

That's why Rocker has a lower estimated career WAR then Lesko (I agree with you on that), but Rocker was taken third. The Rangers put a premium on Rocker's MLB readiness - not a preference - a premium price.

Guys like Rocker who can come in and immediately contribute to a playoff race out of the draft are few and far between - so it doesn't come up often - but it does happen from time to time.

Yes, exactly.

No, not exactly. Completely different situations, really.

[junior]

[sdsuball]

Jul 19, 2022 7:25:01 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

Jul 19, 2022 1:15:57 GMT -8 sdsuball said:

I think that you're really missing the point of why the Rangers drafted Rocker third.

In trades, players that are three years out from the majors, are worth less then prospects that are MLB ready that have the same floor/ceiling in the majors.

In trades, when teams look to pickup a bullpen arm or a bat at the deadline, they will trade more total value (in future prospect WAR), then the future WAR of the player that they are acquiring that's already playing in the majors.

That's why even though we got 8 WAR for a season of Kevin Brown, we gave up far more future WAR in the trade (I mean we gave up Derrek Lee).

That's why Rocker has a lower estimated career WAR then Lesko (I agree with you on that), but Rocker was taken third. The Rangers put a premium on Rocker's MLB readiness - not a preference - a premium price.

Guys like Rocker who can come in and immediately contribute to a playoff race out of the draft are few and far between - so it doesn't come up often - but it does happen from time to time.

That's not entirely true, unfortunately. The Rangers drafted Rocker so they could get a package deal at 109 with Brock Porter, a fellow Boras client and a package deal situation. Rocker allowed them to save money on the slot because he has no leverage to go back to school or the independent leagues, so they were able to get him for $2.3M under slot. It was the plan all along as they floated Porter down the board to cut costs - Happens in every draft.

Trades are completely different. When you draft a guy, there is an ultra-rare chance that he skips the minors and goes to the big leagues in the same season. Off memory, I can only think of a couple of times in recent history that it happened at all. And for a team that is going nowhere like Texas, Rocker has very little value this season as a bullpen arm. You're going to have to hope they fix his mechanics and reboot him next year as a starter, and that his arm can hold up. Odds are against it. It's the reason why he was ranked in the 40's.

I didn't realize that.
Fair enough. I stand corrected.

[aztecryan]

Jul 19, 2022 11:22:20 GMT -8 sdsuball said:

Jul 19, 2022 7:25:01 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

That's not entirely true, unfortunately. The Rangers drafted Rocker so they could get a package deal at 109 with Brock Porter, a fellow Boras client and a package deal situation. Rocker allowed them to save money on the slot because he has no leverage to go back to school or the independent leagues, so they were able to get him for $2.3M under slot. It was the plan all along as they floated Porter down the board to cut costs - Happens in every draft.

Trades are completely different. When you draft a guy, there is an ultra-rare chance that he skips the minors and goes to the big leagues in the same season. Off memory, I can only think of a couple of times in recent history that it happened at all. And for a team that is going nowhere like Texas, Rocker has very little value this season as a bullpen arm. You're going to have to hope they fix his mechanics and reboot him next year as a starter, and that his arm can hold up. Odds are against it. It's the reason why he was ranked in the 40's.

I didn't realize that.
Fair enough. I stand corrected.

No worries - It was kind of a late night reveal once the word started circulating that Boras was pulling strings. Texas was the only real team that had money left in their pool to draft Porter.

[aztecryan]

Here is a full list of all the drafted players in this draft alone who have had Tommy John.

[aztecryan]

"The Padres have done it again, hunting upside and simply doing it better than the vast majority of teams."

[aztecryan]

Signings beginning to flow in - Snelling signs for $3M flat, Mazur for just a bit under his slot value. Lesko TBA.

[aztecryan]

Lesko signs for underslot, at $3.9M.