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Post by johneaztec on Jul 17, 2022 23:15:31 GMT -8
Exactly. Lesko's ceiling is higher. I kind of see it the opposite - they have the same ceiling (I mean Rocker throws a 98 mph fastball alongside other strong pitches, if healthy he's an ace), but Rocker is more likely to be a bust then Lesko. I liked the Rocker pick because I see him as major league ready (at least in relief). Lesko's ceiling is higher but he's a few years away from the majors. So it's more about discounting future prospect value vs present value (for me at least), which is the only reason why I see them as equal value right now. And I have little confidence in our bullpen right now, and also little confidence that we will be able to pick up a good reliever before the deadline, with our need for a big bat and luxury tax issues. I hope to be proven wrong on that front! Yeah, I would have rather had Rocker, at this point in time. Lesko has injury issues as well.
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Jul 18, 2022 6:32:54 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 6:32:54 GMT -8
I kind of see it the opposite - they have the same ceiling (I mean Rocker throws a 98 mph fastball alongside other strong pitches, if healthy he's an ace), but Rocker is more likely to be a bust then Lesko. I liked the Rocker pick because I see him as major league ready (at least in relief). Lesko's ceiling is higher but he's a few years away from the majors. So it's more about discounting future prospect value vs present value (for me at least), which is the only reason why I see them as equal value right now. And I have little confidence in our bullpen right now, and also little confidence that we will be able to pick up a good reliever before the deadline, with our need for a big bat and luxury tax issues. I hope to be proven wrong on that front! Yeah, I would have rather had Rocker, at this point in time. Lesko has injury issues as well. 34% of MLB pitchers have had Tommy John, including more than 50% of the league's top arms in deGrom, Verlander, Giolito, etc. Saying he has injury issues is false (this is the first time he's ever had any medical red flags) whereas Rocker has had shoulder problems (and had his shoulder scoped again last fall) multiple times. Shoulder > Elbow. Just ask Stephen Strasburg, unfortunately.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 6:40:18 GMT -8
JJ Cooper is the managing editor of Baseball America for the last two decades.
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Jul 18, 2022 7:21:29 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 18, 2022 7:21:29 GMT -8
Yeah, I would have rather had Rocker, at this point in time. Lesko has injury issues as well. 34% of MLB pitchers have had Tommy John, including more than 50% of the league's top arms in deGrom, Verlander, Giolito, etc. Saying he has injury issues is false (this is the first time he's ever had any medical red flags) whereas Rocker has had shoulder problems (and had his shoulder scoped again last fall) multiple times. Shoulder > Elbow. Just ask Stephen Strasburg, unfortunately. Yes, he has good upside, but there's a reason why he fell down to the Padres. Injury concerns. If you have a second TJ, there's a very good chance you'll be much less of what you could have been.
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Jul 18, 2022 7:25:49 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 18, 2022 7:25:49 GMT -8
JJ Cooper is the managing editor of Baseball America for the last two decades. I'm sure he'll be fine, but the operative word in his statement is "most." There's still the risk that he won't be the same, and the risk that he may need a second one. That's why he was still available for the Padres to get. Time will tell.
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Jul 18, 2022 7:52:02 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 7:52:02 GMT -8
34% of MLB pitchers have had Tommy John, including more than 50% of the league's top arms in deGrom, Verlander, Giolito, etc. Saying he has injury issues is false (this is the first time he's ever had any medical red flags) whereas Rocker has had shoulder problems (and had his shoulder scoped again last fall) multiple times. Shoulder > Elbow. Just ask Stephen Strasburg, unfortunately. Yes, he has good upside, but there's a reason why he fell down to the Padres. Injury concerns. If you have a second TJ, there's a very good chance you'll be much less of what you could have been. Players fall in every draft. Yes, he would have been a surefire top five pick had he not had Tommy John. Some teams don't have the luxury or the patience to wait on the upside. The odds are that he will not need a second Tommy John, ever.
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Jul 18, 2022 7:52:48 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 7:52:48 GMT -8
JJ Cooper is the managing editor of Baseball America for the last two decades. I'm sure he'll be fine, but the operative word in his statement is "most." There's still the risk that he won't be the same, and the risk that he may need a second one. That's why he was still available for the Padres to get. Time will tell. But you'd rather have Rocker because....I can make up hypotheticals all day long that don't have any relevance, but I choose not to. The Padres took the BPA on their draft board, which is what good teams do.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 18, 2022 9:18:04 GMT -8
I'm sure he'll be fine, but the operative word in his statement is "most." There's still the risk that he won't be the same, and the risk that he may need a second one. That's why he was still available for the Padres to get. Time will tell. But you'd rather have Rocker because....I can make up hypotheticals all day long that don't have any relevance, but I choose not to. The Padres took the BPA on their draft board, which is what good teams do. Because, Rocker is more MLB ready NOW, and that's one of the reasons he went at number 3. I think it's a very good pick at where they got Lesko, for sure.
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Jul 18, 2022 9:22:21 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 9:22:21 GMT -8
But you'd rather have Rocker because....I can make up hypotheticals all day long that don't have any relevance, but I choose not to. The Padres took the BPA on their draft board, which is what good teams do. Because, Rocker is more MLB ready NOW. I think it's a very good pick at where they got Lesko, for sure. It's not about who is ready "now" - Teams do not draft for organizational need. Not the NFL. Rocker's "closer" but his value is massively reduced if he's a bullpen arm and there's the matter of his arm slot that needs to be figured out as well. He fails a physical and then gets drafted higher the next year? Yeah, no thank you.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 18, 2022 9:25:29 GMT -8
Because, Rocker is more MLB ready NOW. I think it's a very good pick at where they got Lesko, for sure. It's not about who is ready "now" - Teams do not draft for organizational need. Not the NFL. Rocker's "closer" but his value is massively reduced if he's a bullpen arm and there's the matter of his arm slot that needs to be figured out as well. He fails a physical and then gets drafted higher the next year? Yeah, no thank you. Of course a team, at times, will pick someone that can get to the majors quicker than another.
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Jul 18, 2022 9:56:25 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 9:56:25 GMT -8
It's not about who is ready "now" - Teams do not draft for organizational need. Not the NFL. Rocker's "closer" but his value is massively reduced if he's a bullpen arm and there's the matter of his arm slot that needs to be figured out as well. He fails a physical and then gets drafted higher the next year? Yeah, no thank you. Of course a team, at times, will pick someone that can get to the majors quicker than another. That's not a "need" - It's a preference. Some teams will go college heavy, some teams will go prep heavy. The Angels drafted 20 pitchers in last year's draft. Preller and Co. stick to their evaluations and trust their scouting process.
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Jul 18, 2022 10:25:49 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 18, 2022 10:25:49 GMT -8
Of course a team, at times, will pick someone that can get to the majors quicker than another. That's not a "need" - It's a preference. Some teams will go college heavy, some teams will go prep heavy. The Angels drafted 20 pitchers in last year's draft. Preller and Co. stick to their evaluations and trust their scouting process. Of course, it can be a need/preference thing.
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Jul 18, 2022 10:47:48 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 10:47:48 GMT -8
First two picks of the day - RHP Henry Williams from Duke, C Lamar King out of the prep ranks in Maryland.
Williams had Tommy John last December and missed the 2022 collegiate season. Up to 95 with a potential plus slider and a super projectable frame.
King is the son former Seattle Seahawk Lamar King, Sr. Huge power potential and solid actions behind the plate. Georgia Tech commit.
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Post by junior on Jul 18, 2022 12:53:05 GMT -8
Just getting harder and harder to keep reading about these kids getting TJ. It's obviously more about the money, less about the sport anymore. If a kid can sign for $4million, then maybe TJ surgery at age 17 or 18 pays off - but it will sure be a crap shoot as they get older. At least it's not brain-damage like the kind that happens to football players, but WTF are we doing to kids?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2022 18:20:31 GMT -8
Friggin love the Lesko pick.
Rocker and his 5,000 miles at Vandy? No thanks.
——“ The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote, he is considered “one of the best high school pitching prospects in the last 20 years, and has one of the best changeups anyone can remember seeing a high school kid throw.
Before his surgery, Lesko was sitting 90-96 mph as a starter. He devastated hitters with a changeup that looked identical to his fastball out of his hand. Some evaluators consider that changeup the best they’ve seen at the amateur level. Lesko also displayed an improved, high-spin curveball this spring. Scouts still see the upside of a major-league ace, assuming Lesko returns successfully from Tommy John.“
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Jul 18, 2022 19:31:46 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 18, 2022 19:31:46 GMT -8
Friggin love the Lesko pick. Rocker and his 5,000 miles at Vandy? No thanks. ——“ The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote, he is considered “one of the best high school pitching prospects in the last 20 years, and has one of the best changeups anyone can remember seeing a high school kid throw. Before his surgery, Lesko was sitting 90-96 mph as a starter. He devastated hitters with a changeup that looked identical to his fastball out of his hand. Some evaluators consider that changeup the best they’ve seen at the amateur level. Lesko also displayed an improved, high-spin curveball this spring. Scouts still see the upside of a major-league ace, assuming Lesko returns successfully from Tommy John.“ Massive upside.
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Jul 18, 2022 20:03:27 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 18, 2022 20:03:27 GMT -8
Just getting harder and harder to keep reading about these kids getting TJ. It's obviously more about the money, less about the sport anymore. If a kid can sign for $4million, then maybe TJ surgery at age 17 or 18 pays off - but it will sure be a crap shoot as they get older. At least it's not brain-damage like the kind that happens to football players, but WTF are we doing to kids? Yeah, getting TJ that young. Not good. Hopefully, he pans out.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 19, 2022 1:15:57 GMT -8
Because, Rocker is more MLB ready NOW. I think it's a very good pick at where they got Lesko, for sure. It's not about who is ready "now" - Teams do not draft for organizational need. Not the NFL. Rocker's "closer" but his value is massively reduced if he's a bullpen arm and there's the matter of his arm slot that needs to be figured out as well. He fails a physical and then gets drafted higher the next year? Yeah, no thank you. I think that you're really missing the point of why the Rangers drafted Rocker third. In trades, players that are three years out from the majors, are worth less then prospects that are MLB ready that have the same floor/ceiling in the majors. In trades, when teams look to pickup a bullpen arm or a bat at the deadline, they will trade more total value (in future prospect WAR), then the future WAR of the player that they are acquiring that's already playing in the majors. That's why even though we got 8 WAR for a season of Kevin Brown, we gave up far more future WAR in the trade (I mean we gave up Derrek Lee). That's why Rocker has a lower estimated career WAR then Lesko (I agree with you on that), but Rocker was taken third. The Rangers put a premium on Rocker's MLB readiness - not a preference - a premium price. Guys like Rocker who can come in and immediately contribute to a playoff race out of the draft are few and far between - so it doesn't come up often - but it does happen from time to time.
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Jul 19, 2022 6:58:42 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2022 6:58:42 GMT -8
It's not about who is ready "now" - Teams do not draft for organizational need. Not the NFL. Rocker's "closer" but his value is massively reduced if he's a bullpen arm and there's the matter of his arm slot that needs to be figured out as well. He fails a physical and then gets drafted higher the next year? Yeah, no thank you. I think that you're really missing the point of why the Rangers drafted Rocker third. In trades, players that are three years out from the majors, are worth less then prospects that are MLB ready that have the same floor/ceiling in the majors. In trades, when teams look to pickup a bullpen arm or a bat at the deadline, they will trade more total value (in future prospect WAR), then the future WAR of the player that they are acquiring that's already playing in the majors. That's why even though we got 8 WAR for a season of Kevin Brown, we gave up far more future WAR in the trade (I mean we gave up Derrek Lee). That's why Rocker has a lower estimated career WAR then Lesko (I agree with you on that), but Rocker was taken third. The Rangers put a premium on Rocker's MLB readiness - not a preference - a premium price. Guys like Rocker who can come in and immediately contribute to a playoff race out of the draft are few and far between - so it doesn't come up often - but it does happen from time to time. Yes, exactly.
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Jul 19, 2022 7:21:54 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2022 7:21:54 GMT -8
Just getting harder and harder to keep reading about these kids getting TJ. It's obviously more about the money, less about the sport anymore. If a kid can sign for $4million, then maybe TJ surgery at age 17 or 18 pays off - but it will sure be a crap shoot as they get older. At least it's not brain-damage like the kind that happens to football players, but WTF are we doing to kids? Yeah, getting TJ that young. Not good. Hopefully, he pans out. It's better to get it done earlier.
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