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Post by aztecryan on Dec 9, 2021 16:59:04 GMT -8
With the lockout and the subsequent freeze on MLB transactions, the only real show in town right now is the international signing day, still tentatively set for January 15th. The Padres are expected to sign Jarlin Susana, the #1 pitcher in the class (and an easy top ten system prospect from the jump) along with Yendry Rojas, a shortstop originally from Cuba who has drawn comparisons to a young Yoan Moncada.
The jewel though lies in 2023. Padres have been linked to and are expected to sign Ethan Salas, a catcher from Venezuela who has been a showcase circuit darling for the past few years. Salas has drawn rave (and I mean rave) reviews for his defense, pop time behind the plate and his smooth left-handed swing. He ranks in the top 5 on the FanGraphs International board that encompasses the entire globe and could be the #1 prospect in the 2023 group.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2021 9:03:24 GMT -8
Looking back at Preller's "historic" 2018 Intl class ---- not impressive. -----The Athletic Dennis Lin Mailbag Preller invested $80 million of ownership’s money in the 2016-17 international signing class. At this point, five years later, what letter grade would you give A.J. for it? — Tim B. It’s well-established that only a tiny percentage of international signees reach the majors, but given the level of investment, I’d go with a C. Adrian Morejon ($11 million signing bonus) and Michel Baez ($3 million) have been repeatedly slowed by injuries. So has Jorge Oña ($7 million), who was dropped from the 40-man roster. Luis Almanzar ($4.05 million) and Osvaldo Hernandez ($2.5 million) haven’t developed into notable prospects. Some less-expensive signings — including Ronald Bolaños ($2.25 million), Gabriel Arias ($1.9 million), Jeisson Rosario ($1.85 million) and Tucupita Marcano ($320,000) — have been flipped for major-league talent. The best example of this is Luis Patiño, who signed for $130,000, emerged as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, then headlined the four-player return for Blake Snell. There still is time for the results to improve. Maybe Morejon and Baez return from Tommy John surgery next summer and begin to establish themselves as reliable big-league pitchers. Maybe Mike Clevinger, whom the Padres acquired by trading Arias and several others, makes his own successful comeback from elbow reconstruction. Maybe Snell will sustain the dominance he flashed for six weeks of his frustrating 2021 season. Maybe tweaks to San Diego’s player-development process will pay off. So far, however, the Padres have gotten largely disappointing returns from a historic international class.theathletic.com/3014790/2021/12/16/padres-mailbag-part-2-on-starting-pitching-trent-grisham-international-returns-and-more/ |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2021 9:06:43 GMT -8
The more I look at AJ Preller's overall body of work, the less enthused I am with him.
A couple years ago, I was sky high on the guy.
The returns are coming in.........
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 16, 2021 9:14:17 GMT -8
Looking back at Preller's "historic" 2018 Intl class ---- not impressive. -----The Athletic Dennis Lin Mailbag Preller invested $80 million of ownership’s money in the 2016-17 international signing class. At this point, five years later, what letter grade would you give A.J. for it? — Tim B. It’s well-established that only a tiny percentage of international signees reach the majors, but given the level of investment, I’d go with a C. Adrian Morejon ($11 million signing bonus) and Michel Baez ($3 million) have been repeatedly slowed by injuries. So has Jorge Oña ($7 million), who was dropped from the 40-man roster. Luis Almanzar ($4.05 million) and Osvaldo Hernandez ($2.5 million) haven’t developed into notable prospects. Some less-expensive signings — including Ronald Bolaños ($2.25 million), Gabriel Arias ($1.9 million), Jeisson Rosario ($1.85 million) and Tucupita Marcano ($320,000) — have been flipped for major-league talent. The best example of this is Luis Patiño, who signed for $130,000, emerged as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, then headlined the four-player return for Blake Snell. There still is time for the results to improve. Maybe Morejon and Baez return from Tommy John surgery next summer and begin to establish themselves as reliable big-league pitchers. Maybe Mike Clevinger, whom the Padres acquired by trading Arias and several others, makes his own successful comeback from elbow reconstruction. Maybe Snell will sustain the dominance he flashed for six weeks of his frustrating 2021 season. Maybe tweaks to San Diego’s player-development process will pay off. So far, however, the Padres have gotten largely disappointing returns from a historic international class.theathletic.com/3014790/2021/12/16/padres-mailbag-part-2-on-starting-pitching-trent-grisham-international-returns-and-more/You meant 2016, I'm assuming. Yeah, the reality is that signing 15 year olds (with obvious exceptions for Cuban players) is a process lined with minefields. Development and natural attrition of those players is brutal. Language and cultural barriers, physical developmental issues, etc. Still, it's hard to argue when you look at the composition of a Top 30 - Guys like Brandon Valenzuela (Mexico), Euribiel Angeles (Dominican Republic), Victor Lizarraga (Mexico/Montgomery HS) and a host of others were all international signings. Morejon's still just 22 years old and I believe can turn a corner in his development. Same with Baez, even though he's a bit older. It's a fair criticism that I think says more about the Padres developmental procedures/injury prevention at the minor league level than anything else. As an aside, the early returns from last season's DSL debutantes are promising. Acosta, Zavala and Montesino all turned in very strong seasons in the DR. The Padres last night also signed Oliver Carillo, who was the Mexican Winter League MVP from Mazatlan. This doesn't even touch on their imprint in Japan/Asia as a whole. Ha-seong Kim's already provided surplus value on his contract, despite the contact issues/driving the ball with authority. I'd expect the Padres to be in on Seiya Suzuki as well. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jan 15, 2022 8:46:18 GMT -8
Padres officially ink three players, including Jarlin Susana, with more to come. I haven't been this excited about a pitching prospect on the international side in a long time.
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Post by aztecmusician on Jan 19, 2022 20:16:22 GMT -8
Looking back at Preller's "historic" 2018 Intl class ---- not impressive. -----The Athletic Dennis Lin Mailbag Preller invested $80 million of ownership’s money in the 2016-17 international signing class. At this point, five years later, what letter grade would you give A.J. for it? — Tim B. It’s well-established that only a tiny percentage of international signees reach the majors, but given the level of investment, I’d go with a C. Adrian Morejon ($11 million signing bonus) and Michel Baez ($3 million) have been repeatedly slowed by injuries. So has Jorge Oña ($7 million), who was dropped from the 40-man roster. Luis Almanzar ($4.05 million) and Osvaldo Hernandez ($2.5 million) haven’t developed into notable prospects. Some less-expensive signings — including Ronald Bolaños ($2.25 million), Gabriel Arias ($1.9 million), Jeisson Rosario ($1.85 million) and Tucupita Marcano ($320,000) — have been flipped for major-league talent. The best example of this is Luis Patiño, who signed for $130,000, emerged as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, then headlined the four-player return for Blake Snell. There still is time for the results to improve. Maybe Morejon and Baez return from Tommy John surgery next summer and begin to establish themselves as reliable big-league pitchers. Maybe Mike Clevinger, whom the Padres acquired by trading Arias and several others, makes his own successful comeback from elbow reconstruction. Maybe Snell will sustain the dominance he flashed for six weeks of his frustrating 2021 season. Maybe tweaks to San Diego’s player-development process will pay off. So far, however, the Padres have gotten largely disappointing returns from a historic international class.theathletic.com/3014790/2021/12/16/padres-mailbag-part-2-on-starting-pitching-trent-grisham-international-returns-and-more/The general nature of baseball prospect development is that most players are simply not going pan out. The Padres know this better than most teams, especially with pitching prospects. The fact that a couple of recent guys have come through the ranks to have big league success is encouraging (Tatis, Renfroe, France, Franimal) and shows that Preller’s player development structure is sound. It’s deals he makes after these guys get to the big leagues which leave me shaking my head. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jan 20, 2022 8:40:35 GMT -8
Looking back at Preller's "historic" 2018 Intl class ---- not impressive. -----The Athletic Dennis Lin Mailbag Preller invested $80 million of ownership’s money in the 2016-17 international signing class. At this point, five years later, what letter grade would you give A.J. for it? — Tim B. It’s well-established that only a tiny percentage of international signees reach the majors, but given the level of investment, I’d go with a C. Adrian Morejon ($11 million signing bonus) and Michel Baez ($3 million) have been repeatedly slowed by injuries. So has Jorge Oña ($7 million), who was dropped from the 40-man roster. Luis Almanzar ($4.05 million) and Osvaldo Hernandez ($2.5 million) haven’t developed into notable prospects. Some less-expensive signings — including Ronald Bolaños ($2.25 million), Gabriel Arias ($1.9 million), Jeisson Rosario ($1.85 million) and Tucupita Marcano ($320,000) — have been flipped for major-league talent. The best example of this is Luis Patiño, who signed for $130,000, emerged as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, then headlined the four-player return for Blake Snell. There still is time for the results to improve. Maybe Morejon and Baez return from Tommy John surgery next summer and begin to establish themselves as reliable big-league pitchers. Maybe Mike Clevinger, whom the Padres acquired by trading Arias and several others, makes his own successful comeback from elbow reconstruction. Maybe Snell will sustain the dominance he flashed for six weeks of his frustrating 2021 season. Maybe tweaks to San Diego’s player-development process will pay off. So far, however, the Padres have gotten largely disappointing returns from a historic international class.theathletic.com/3014790/2021/12/16/padres-mailbag-part-2-on-starting-pitching-trent-grisham-international-returns-and-more/The general nature of baseball prospect development is that most players are simply not going pan out. The Padres know this better than most teams, especially with pitching prospects. The fact that a couple of recent guys have come through the ranks to have big league success is encouraging (Tatis, Renfroe, France, Franimal) and shows that Preller’s player development structure is sound. It’s deals he makes after these guys get to the big leagues which leave me shaking my head. Most of his trades get a bad rap unfairly because they are viewed in a lens that doesn't factor in the objective of the deal. When you combine that with the fact that sometimes it just takes guys to have a change of scenery to experience some success, it happens. |
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Post by survalli on Jan 22, 2022 1:25:18 GMT -8
Padres officially ink three players, including Jarlin Susana, with more to come. I haven't been this excited about a pitching prospect on the international side in a long time. he looks terrific. is he really 6'6? he looks a little like Dwight Gooden out there, not quite as smooth. heavier, and i think his potential for weight gain as he gets older is something to keep an eye on as I saw somewhere he weighed in at around 230. now if he can throw a curve like Doc Gooden. watch out! |
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Post by aztecryan on Jan 22, 2022 7:50:07 GMT -8
Padres officially ink three players, including Jarlin Susana, with more to come. I haven't been this excited about a pitching prospect on the international side in a long time. he looks terrific. is he really 6'6? he looks a little like Dwight Gooden out there, not quite as smooth. heavier, and i think his potential for weight gain as he gets older is something to keep an eye on as I saw somewhere he weighed in at around 230. now if he can throw a curve like Doc Gooden. watch out! Every bit of 6'6. He has a power slider, a good changeup and has added a curve. Consensus #1 pitcher in the class. Turns 18 later this year so I'd expect him to jump right to the States and skip the DSL. Immediate top 10 system prospect, for me. I just published my Top 30 yesterday, he wasn't eligible due to his signing date, but he'd rank 7 or 8. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jan 27, 2022 8:24:07 GMT -8
Article on Ethan Salas, who will be a Padre in the next class. Some incredibly high praise in the article from scouting directors and execs.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 30, 2022 7:57:27 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 20, 2022 8:27:33 GMT -8
Padres have a verbal commitment in place to sign Salas for $5.6M on January 15th. Even after being hit with a million dollar penalty, the Padres are favored to sign next year's #2 prospect, SS Leo De Vries.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Dec 20, 2022 8:59:18 GMT -8
Maybe Preller really does want an entire roster of shortstops.  |
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 20, 2022 9:39:21 GMT -8
Maybe Preller really does want an entire roster of shortstops. Best athletes on the field with the highest likelihood of being able to shift to different spots on the field later on. Always the route in international signings. A club will sign 5-6 per year. |
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Post by sdsuball on Dec 20, 2022 22:53:49 GMT -8
Maybe Preller really does want an entire roster of shortstops. Best athletes on the field with the highest likelihood of being able to shift to different spots on the field later on. Always the route in international signings. A club will sign 5-6 per year. And if all else fails, a strong arm has a chance to make it as a pitcher. Worked out for Trevor Hoffman... Tatis or Cronenworth would have a shot at making it to the bigs as a pitcher if they couldn't hit. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 20, 2023 9:48:53 GMT -8
The Padres already have an agreement with Leo de Vries, a consensus top two player in next year's class. From Eric Longenhagen:
Full Report
"De Vries is a do-everything, switch-hitting infielder with power from both sides of the plate. There are international scouting personnel whose club reports on De Vries say "everything is at least plus," that he's a no-doubt shortstop with a 60- or 70-grade arm and a projectable frame, and one executive considers him the best international prospect since Wander Franco. De Vries can really bang from both sides of the plate. He already has oppo home run power from the left side and can drop the bat head to golf out some emphatic pull-side shots. He isn't so lanky and big-framed that you worry he'll move off of shortstop, and his twitch and arm strength give him a great chance of not only staying there but being an above-average defender or better. It's uncommon for an international amateur prospect to enter pro ball as a 50 FV player, and the track record of such players is mixed due to the volatile nature of this talent pool (Wander Franco, Jasson Domínguez, Kevin Maitan, Yadier Álvarez), but the word of mouth buzz around De Vries is deafening. That word of mouth indicates he has a verbal agreement with the Padres."
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2023 10:42:21 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 20, 2023 12:00:35 GMT -8
Actually, I have. Almanzar flamed out, Rosario was traded (Moreland), Tirso is still in the system (and still just 22) and Lopez was converted to the mound. He's been 94-97, flashing a good breaking ball at times. He made Keith Law's Padres list There's also levels to this: "Six top prospects" is a rough characterization. Both Salas and de Vries are top players in their classes. Nobody was comparing any of those six to Wander Franco. The attrition rate is high, but this is where a ton of your studs come from. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2023 12:21:50 GMT -8
So in other words, seven years later…….
Mmm hmmm.
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 20, 2023 13:31:55 GMT -8
So in other words, seven years later……. Mmm hmmm. Virtually all of those kids signed 2017 deals, don't believe any logged significant playing time, if any, that summer. Outside of your outlier studs (Acuña, Soto, Tatis, etc), that's about the normal development curve. The bust rate is going to be high by default, the nature of the beast. What separates a kid like Salas from that kind of group is his ability to hit stateside pitching. That's always the #1 concern with international signees - They don't get exposed to premium velocity or advanced repertoires in their home countries. Salas has been a showcase circuit standout since he was 12 or 13, barreling 90+ consistently on the Perfect Game showcase circuit. I would be floored if he was a bust. Beyond floored. It's a fair argument, there's inherent risk to signing teenagers to multi-million dollar deals. |
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